Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kebabking]

One thing that continues to puzzle me is this suggestion of Ukraine having a 'secure neutral status but with external security guarantees'.

NATO has been clear they do not want to fight the Russian military, so I am not sure why any NATO countries would offer 'external security guarantees', which seems to be basically asking for NATO protection without actually joining NATO, unless I am missing something.

It came up this morning, when Raab was doing the media rounds -

I don't think there is a mechanism that will satisfy all three parties.

Also worth noting that Ukraine in 2014 had security guarantees from the US, UK, Russia...

Security guarantees aren't worth shit, which is precisely why NATO has the forward deployment/tripwire doctrine. It's easy to swerve previous promises when the fighting is in someone else's country, less so when your troops are permanently deployed in that country - but, of course, if Ukraine isn't allowed troops from other states, then that 'dog in the fight' won't exist.

The fundamental problem is that for Ukraine, any 'deal' is simply - for Russia - a chance to regroup, rearm, and prepare for another go. Who'd agree to that?

 

[gosub]

I don't think there is a mechanism that will satisfy all three parties.

Also worth noting that Ukraine in 2014 had security guarantees from the US, UK, Russia...

Security guarantees aren't worth shit, which is precisely why NATO has the forward deployment/tripwire doctrine. It's easy to swerve previous promises when the fighting is in someone else's country, less so when your troops are permanently deployed in that country - but, of course, if Ukraine isn't allowed troops from other states, then that 'dog in the fight' won't exist.

The fundamental problem is that for Ukraine, any 'deal' is simply - for Russia - a chance to regroup, rearm, and prepare for another go. Who'd agree to that?

That Russian interview with Zalensky was intresting....didn't want to talk to General's wanted to talk to lawyers.....after a long term solution.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't think there is a mechanism that will satisfy all three parties.

Also worth noting that Ukraine in 2014 had security guarantees from the US, UK, Russia...

Security guarantees aren't worth shit, which is precisely why NATO has the forward deployment/tripwire doctrine. It's easy to swerve previous promises when the fighting is in someone else's country, less so when your troops are permanently deployed in that country - but, of course, if Ukraine isn't allowed troops from other states, then that 'dog in the fight' won't exist.

The fundamental problem is that for Ukraine, any 'deal' is simply - for Russia - a chance to regroup, rearm, and prepare for another go. Who'd agree to that?

Yeh but equally the fundamental problem for Russia is that a deal would see intense activity in Ukraine preparing for the next round, and as things have gone poorly for Russia in comparison to their expectations, how would Russia change its tactics to effectively overcome Ukrainian resistance? I don't know it can be done easily or quickly - and of course to adopt new methods the Russians have first to admit they've a problem

 

[xenon]

I'd be interested to know what kind of state the remaining 25% is in too - I wouldn't in the least be surprised if it's lying in tank graveyards, having been cannibalised for spare parts, or mothballed and not maintained to any combatworthy standard. Same with their human soldiers - large numbers of their elite forces have been wiped out in failed offensives. You can't just call up more men and expect them to be any good without years worth of training.

I thought it was felt that a large number of better trained and equipped forces remained in Russia. Partly as Putin apparently genuinely fears / feared Nato may attack on Russian soil.

 

[emanymton]

I thought it was felt that a large number of better trained and equipped forces remained in Russia. Partly as Putin apparently genuinely fears / feared Nato may attack on Russian soil.

This is one of the problems with information. I have heard both that the Russians held back their better troops and sent in a load of cannon fodder to begin with, and that it was their better troops sent in first.

And I am not in position to judge which is more likely true. And the truth is probably more complex anyway. With elite troops being used in some areas and not others.

 

[Cid]

That Russian interview with Zalensky was intresting....didn't want to talk to General's wanted to talk to lawyers.....after a long term solution.

Yeah, I was surprised that didn't get more English language traction/full write-ups tbh (well, probably missed something). There seemed to be a lot in there, just didn't have the time to sit down and go through 1.5 hrs of subtitled video.

 

[xenon]

This is one of the problems with information. I have heard both that the Russians held back their better troops and sent in a load of cannon fodder to begin with, and that it was their better troops sent in first.

And I am not in position to judge which is more likely true. And the truth is probably more complex anyway. With elite troops being used in some areas and not others.

Yes, have read the same. Along with FSB agents sent to ensure / observe compliance.

 

[belboid]

escalation? Not from me, just a response in kind to a non-entity. Wrong about what: Bellingcat? Have you read their own book?

I take it your referring to their open admission that they take money from the NED - the Yankee, definitely not governmental oh no sirree, fund to ‘promote democracy’ around the world. It’s hard to say whether they’re really a CIA front, my impression is it isn’t, it just represents the same interests through somewhat different means.

They have been accused or creating/formenting the 2014 events, the Hong Kong democracy movement and the Thai democracy movement (amongst others). You don’t agree with their accusers on that, do you?

 

[TopCat]

Germany and Austria take step towards gas rationing

Germany and Austria have both issued gas supply warnings as a payments row with Russia escalates.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[SpackleFrog]

Agreed to wipe the debt off that the club owned to him. Said the club was not about money but about his love for Chelsea .

Yeah totally but I read him as saying that he would wipe the debt and donate any profit from the sale - which I assumed meant he would keep whatever he justified as expenses.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Germany and Austria take step towards gas rationing

Germany and Austria have both issued gas supply warnings as a payments row with Russia escalates.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think there were some posters on this thread who thought that European countries would soon stop buying Russian gas; this looks more like Russia is threatening to stop supplying it.

 

[dilute micro]

I think there were some posters on this thread who thought that European countries would soon stop buying Russian gas; this looks more like Russia is threatening to stop supplying it.

Russia is being led by worse leaders than Europe. It's a contest at the moment.

 

[The39thStep]

Yeah totally but I read him as saying that he would wipe the debt and donate any profit from the sale - which I assumed meant he would keep whatever he justified as expenses.

Yes there may have been expenses or on the other hand not, we don't know. However, the original offer to the Chelsea Trust for them to become 'stewards', the later, rushed decision to sell, wipe the debt and profits to charity and then the brief the board have given the bank that is dealing with the sale re liaising with the Chelsea Trust shows the overall direction, and,I think ,intention.

 

[TopCat]

I think there were some posters on this thread who thought that European countries would soon stop buying Russian gas; this looks more like Russia is threatening to stop supplying it.

More like German leaders saying they won't pay for the gas they have ordered. Unlikely they will get a continued supply if they carry through non payment.

 

[Pickman's model]

More like German leaders saying they won't pay for the gas they have ordered. Unlikely they will get a continued supply if they carry through non payment.

The problem appears to lie in the difficulty of adapting the meter to take rouble notes and feeding them in swiftly enough to prevent an interruption in the flow of gas

 

[LDC]

crack smoking fruitbat: I see. No point in engaging with scum like you then. You an asset: hilarious

Don't make unsubstantiated serious accusations against people that in some parts of the world might put their lives in danger with no evidence. So back it up with specific facts and evidence, or retract it and admit you overstepped the mark and made a serious and possibly dangerous mistake.

 

[_Russ_]

More like German leaders saying they won't pay for the gas they have ordered. Unlikely they will get a continued supply if they carry through non payment.

Yes it seems absurdly arrogant under the circumstances

(I know contracts and all that shit but really there are times to recognize your pigheadedness needs reeling in a tad)

 

[two sheds]

Why is Russia wanting to be paid in roubles by the way? I'd have thought they'd want foreign currency (not that they can presumably do all that much with it at the moment).

 

[elbows]

Why is Russia wanting to be paid in roubles by the way? I'd have thought they'd want foreign currency (not that they can presumably do all that much with it at the moment).

I'm not a currency guy but I assume its a way to support the rouble, because countries would need to buy roubles in order to have them available to use for such transactions, and that would prop up the roubles value in some ways.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Yep, forced demand will assist in propping up their currency.

 

[two sheds]

true - I suppose it makes no actual difference to the price they pay for the oil, whether €2 or 30,000 roubles/litre, works out the same.

 

[B.I.G]

More like German leaders saying they won't pay for the gas they have ordered. Unlikely they will get a continued supply if they carry through non payment.

They want to pay in one of the currencies agreed in the contract no?

 

[elbows]

Yesterdays ISW analysis moved in the direction the media and the discussion here had already gone. They are holding off going even further in their assessment unless they see signs of Russia also abandoning attempts to hold its current front lines in the area.

The Russians have not yet abandoned their attacks on Kyiv, claims by Russian Defense Ministry officials notwithstanding. Russian forces continued fighting to hold their forwardmost positions on the eastern and western Kyiv outskirts even as badly damaged units withdrew to Russia from elsewhere on the Kyiv and Chernihiv axes. The Russian high command has likely concluded that it cannot seize Kyiv and may not be able to move artillery closer to the center of the city. It may have decided to stop its previous practices of forcing units that have already taken devastating losses to continue hopeless offensive operations and of feeding individual battalion tactical groups into the battle as they become available rather than concentrating them to achieve decisive effects. Russian officials are likely casting these decisions driven by military realities as overtures demonstrating Russia’s willingness to engage in serious ceasefire or peace negotiations, possibly to conceal the fact that they have accepted the failure of their efforts on the Kyiv axis.

Institute for the Study of War

The Russians have not yet abandoned their attacks on Kyiv, claims by Russian Defense Ministry officials notwithstanding. Russian forces continued fighting to hold their forwardmost positions on the eastern and western Kyiv outskirts even as badly damaged

www.understandingwar.org

 

[andysays]

They want to pay in one of the currencies agreed in the contract no?

According to the story on the BBC website, Putin wants to insist all "unfriendly countries" pay only in roubles from April 1st, and Germany wants to continue paying with Euros.

 

[Dogsauce]

Rouble has recovered most of its losses over the last week. Speculators somewhere will be quids in.

 

[frogwoman]

International media are abusing the heroism of Ukraine’s journalists western media covering themselves in glory again

 

[TopCat]

Rouble has recovered most of its losses over the last week. Speculators somewhere will be quids in.

Drat! I had no cash...

 

[B.I.G]

According to the story on the BBC website, Putin wants to insist all "unfriendly countries" pay only in roubles from April 1st, and Germany wants to continue paying with Euros.

Yes I am sure he does. If the contracts aren’t expiring then then I am sure the existing ones specify the currency to pay in.

 

[agricola]

One thing that continues to puzzle me is this suggestion of Ukraine having a 'secure neutral status but with external security guarantees'.

NATO has been clear they do not want to fight the Russian military, so I am not sure why any NATO countries would offer 'external security guarantees', which seems to be basically asking for NATO protection without actually joining NATO, unless I am missing something.

It came up this morning, when Raab was doing the media rounds -

Indeed. I think a better idea, if it would be agreed, is to get the security council to pre-emptively agree a sanctions regime to be implemented in the event of a breach, a UN peacekeeping force and authorise the supply of arms.

 

[Pickman's model]

Indeed. I think a better idea, if it would be agreed, is to get the security council to pre-emptively agree a sanctions regime to be implemented in the event of a breach, a UN peacekeeping force and authorise the supply of arms.

I'd have thought that in that neck of the woods un peacekeeping forces were something of a poor jest since srebenica