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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

we'll find out when the chinese and the americans line up for the big one in about a thousand days time (well, in 2025 which is a mite more than a thousand days away)
I won't post too much on China given that this thread is about Ukraine but...:)

Having a military in itself doesn't mean much. You need experience and then (be allowed) to learn from that experience. China has a "me too" military with tons of untested equipment, tactics and personnel. That's not to say they don't have good equipment just that there's more to it than tangible things.
 
I won't post too much on China given that this thread is about Ukraine but...:)

Having a military in itself doesn't mean much. You need experience and then (be allowed) to learn from that experience. China has a "me too" military with tons of untested equipment, tactics and personnel. That's not to say they don't have good equipment just that there's more to it than tangible things.
Yeh I'm talking about when the test comes
 
This is quite a development of the reporting is accurate, because it won't have been authorised by the chain of command.

Just been reading about that. More info here -


This morning I was a little captured. It happens because it's war. I reported that there are only peaceful ones here, with their flag of Ukraine. We are under the Ukrainian flag and legislation, we are all power here, we are working further What was the talk about: if it is confirmed that there is no military here, that we do not fight in city, then we remain to work ourselves, no occupation power.

Not sure if the full translation is accurate.
 
“when the Germans fly over, the English duck. When the English fly over the Germans duck. And when the Americans fly over, everyone ducks!"

Well, indeed.

It's a compliment though, and rather one that has a deep understanding of Warfare behind it - that war is chaotic, that if 20% of your plan/assumptions bare even a passing resemblance to what actually happens you're doing well, that command, control and communications are sometime things and that anyone who thinks they will be able to successfully run a war with a plan, a map, and a radio is going to be bitterly disappointed.

That one of the strengths of western military thought is the Strategic Corporal/Major/Lt Col - the acceptance that the plan, and the ability to manage the plan in action, are going to turn to dog-shit on day one, and that what will be left is a force that knows it's commanders intent, and knows how they roughly want it to go - and that whenever there's a problem/obstacle/breakdown, your people at whatever level the problem occurs at have the training, the confidence and the moral authority to improvise, to adapt, to change the plan and to crack on in persuit of the objective.

One of the things that cripples the Russian Army is a very top down command style - and when that chain of command gets messed with, whether by killing the commander or fucking up communication, they simply stop. They haven't been told the plan, and they don't have a leadership culture where, when you stop being told what to do, you look at what's happening and make decisions based on your commanders intent, and everyone follows what the 'new' leader says.

It's a system that has advantages - it's really cheap compared to the western system of training and education, you can put 4 or 5 'automons' in the field for the price of one well trained Gunner - but when it meets a system that's designed to cut off and kill the command chain, it grinds to a halt. It can stil overwhelm through mass, but it doesn't half make a meal of it.
 
professional NCO corps

Have you been following James Vasquez? A 47 year old builder and army veteran from Connecticut, in the Ukraine army's international legion. Is he an example of the professional NCO you describe? He decided to go to Ukraine a few weeks ago and opened a twitter account, his first foray into social media https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974

Then he opened a Paypal account and appealed for money to buy his squad some 4x4 vehicles, telescopic sights and helmets. Then he was in the press and got 220k followers, and has been inundated with cash. He said he only needed $50k, so he's asking people to donate to the Ukrainian MoD instead. I find it rather mind-boggling that the internet now lets you see what a soldier is up to, almost in real time, send him some money, and see him fighting with the stuff you paid for. I don't think Hollywood has come up with a script like that. He seems like a very sound, principled guy. I haven't found anything to suggest he's a wrong 'un. (Quote: "When I need to amp myself up for battle, I just think about the most punchable face on the planet… Tucker Carlson.")
No doubt the Russians are hunting him. I don't want to think about what might happen.
 
It's not so much the west seeing them as weak that could be an issue but their allies and client states.

I see your point but that presumes this is being framed the same everywhere. The west is very invested in going haha your army's shit and the model of warfare we're used to is dropping bombs on villages from the air and taking very few casualties but I doubt the ex-citizens of Mauripol think his army's shit. It looks to me like there's been two armies fighting this war and we've only really been shown the shit one. But if those troops outside Kiev really were literal cannon fodder whose only purpose was to troll Zelensky and keep the bulk of the Ukranian army occupied - and that turns out to have won him the war - then that might be viewed as both tactically inspired and utterly ruthless given how many casualties they were prepared to accept to pull it off. Whatever the truth. and we'll likely never know for sure, I suspect Beijing is looking at this war with a very different eye to twitter and the western commentariat.
 
Have you been following James Vasquez? A 47 year old builder and army veteran from Connecticut, in the Ukraine army's international legion. Is he an example of the professional NCO you describe? He decided to go to Ukraine a few weeks ago and opened a twitter account, his first foray into social media https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974

Then he opened a Paypal account and appealed for money to buy his squad some 4x4 vehicles, telescopic sights and helmets. Then he was in the press and got 220k followers, and has been inundated with cash. He said he only needed $50k, so he's asking people to donate to the Ukrainian MoD instead. I find it rather mind-boggling that the internet now lets you see what a soldier is up to, almost in real time, send him some money, and see him fighting with the stuff you paid for. I don't think Hollywood has come up with a script like that. He seems like a very sound, principled guy. I haven't found anything to suggest he's a wrong 'un. (Quote: "When I need to amp myself up for battle, I just think about the most punchable face on the planet… Tucker Carlson.")
No doubt the Russians are hunting him. I don't want to think about what might happen.
Not heard of him but will have a look.
 
I see your point but that presumes this is being framed the same everywhere. The west is very invested in going haha your army's shit and the model of warfare we're used to is dropping bombs on villages from the air and taking very few casualties but I doubt the ex-citizens of Mauripol think his army's shit. It looks to me like there's been two armies fighting this war and we've only really been shown the shit one. But if those troops outside Kiev really were literal cannon fodder whose only purpose was to troll Zelensky and keep the bulk of the Ukranian army occupied - and that turns out to have won him the war - then that might be viewed as both tactically inspired and utterly ruthless given how many casualties they were prepared to accept to pull it off. Whatever the truth. and we'll likely never know for sure, I suspect Beijing is looking at this war with a very different eye to twitter and the western commentariat.

We dont have a good view of the proper details of where Ukraines troops are positioned around the country, but I think much of what we were told throughout the first phase was pretty much the opposite of what you are suggesting. By this I mean that I recall correctly our own media told us on multiple occasions that the largest Ukrainian forces were in the east, and that Russia was aiming to surround them and cut them off during operations there, preventing them from being able to redeploy to other areas such as Kyiv.
 
Genuine question - have they been shown to be fake? They'd be very easy to fake, given how post-Soviet Russian and Ukrainian lamp-posts must look, and how easy it is to tape someone to them. But that would surely make it harder to debunk them as fakes, wouldn't it?
Not "fake" as such but the context is somewhat different to what Russian reports claim.

 
Not "fake" as such but the context is somewhat different to what Russian reports claim.

Thanks. I'm certainly reassured after reading that "According to the reporter, such people are abandoned until police arrive and begin criminal investigation proceedings with them in a standard way. "We also heard allegations that such people will be transferred to the front, to the front line, and that they will dig trenches under fire there," the Czech Television reporter said."
 
Not "fake" as such but the context is somewhat different to what Russian reports claim.

The "context" doesn't make it any better. Yes, we know Russian state misinformation will make use of it. No, Ukraine was far from a land of harmony and tolerance before the invasion. It's apologism for anti-Roma racism.
 
We dont have a good view of the proper details of where Ukraines troops are positioned around the country, but I think much of what we were told throughout the first phase was pretty much the opposite of what you are suggesting. By this I mean that I recall correctly our own media told us on multiple occasions that the largest Ukrainian forces were in the east, and that Russia was aiming to surround them and cut them off during operations there, preventing them from being able to redeploy to other areas such as Kyiv.
You may remember how people chortled in 1982 when we were told the Argentine media had reported the sinking of the invincible several times. We're being lied to now only with more ability
 
Pre-internet the problem was a limited media pipeline gatekept by journalists who were relatively easy to control, and thus the flow of information the public got was clearly structured, but largely reflected whatever the needs of the local State happened to be. A similarly limited number of outlier and foreign outlets thus offered a great deal of value in (or an outsized influence on) recording, contextualising and critiquing stories the mainstream wouldn't, galvanising resistance that was sometimes off-base, but mobilised around coherent aims.

Now the problem is too much information, unfiltered and often deliberately spammed or spoofed, alongside a requirement for increased savvy in interpreting meaning that is consistently undercut by a menagerie of wannabes, clickbaiters, propagandists, conspiracy kooks, errant geeks and deliberate State misdirection. The irony of this is that while we have more real information to hand than has ever been the case in human history, we are unable to sift and use it effectively and are thus, largely, rendered in some ways less informed and less able, or even willing, to behave decisively as non-State actors. So we end up going round and round in circles trying to work out what the fuck is happening, and all we end up doing is an extra-wordy Neil Oliver impression.
 
Thanks. I'm certainly reassured after reading that "According to the reporter, such people are abandoned until police arrive and begin criminal investigation proceedings with them in a standard way. "We also heard allegations that such people will be transferred to the front, to the front line, and that they will dig trenches under fire there," the Czech Television reporter said."
It's definitely put my mind at ease, I can tell you that.

E2A: hammer on head of nail there Rob Ray
 
Yeah the thing that worries me (well, one of the many things) is that Medvedev was banging on about nuclear response to attacks on Russia. Redefine what Russia is, justify escalation. Fwiw I think the nuclear stuff is probably rhetoric, but rhetoric in the sense of 'you should be grateful we're not...'.
 
Yeah the thing that worries me (well, one of the many things) is that Medvedev was banging on about nuclear response to attacks on Russia. Redefine what Russia is, justify escalation. Fwiw I think the nuclear stuff is probably rhetoric, but rhetoric in the sense of 'you should be grateful we're not...'.
‘Existential threats’ to Russia being their nuke line yeah, so if some place inside Ukraine decides -in a totally free and fair election obvs - to become part of Russia they get to remind everyone about the nuke threat that bit more often. I don’t think it’s a cunning plan though, can’t see it working out well for anyone.
 
This is not good at all. Just because Russia has operated a 'raze it to the ground with no regard to civilian casualties' policy with particular reference to Mariuripol does not excuse this:



Warning: Video in linked tweet contains graphic content.
 
This is not good at all. Just because Russia has operated a 'raze it to the ground with no regard to civilian casualties' policy with particular reference to Mariuripol does not excuse this:



Warning: Video in linked tweet contains graphic content.

Perhaps rather than putting graphic content on things like this, which could be bodies you could warning this has images of graphic violence or possible war crimes. If it has to be posted at all By you I mean everyone of course
 
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