Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[frogwoman]

 

[smokedout]

It is possible and I have considered it. But I really don't think so. Making your army deliberately look shit is not a great strategic move long term for an imperial power. However this ends, at the moment in looks like Russia will be seen as weaker than it was before and I can't see that being something they would want and plan for.

I also don't think the expected the sanctions against them to be as severe as they are. Short term they don't mean much, but long term they might. As could Europe looking elsewhere for its oil and gas.

Mind you I also worry that in the end Russian money and Russian resources will win out over Ukrainian PR, and a lot of the tough talk from Europe and the US will end up being little more than that.

I don't think it's gone perfectly and am really jusr raising one scenario. But I'm not sure all this perceived as weaker by the West really bothers him that much. They aren't so weak the West was prepared to send Ukraine fighter jets. And bad PR vs having a couple of client states on the border rather than a civil war is possibly a price worth paying.

 

[A380]

I suspect it will be back to the drawing board for the Russian army after this, and the resulting reforms will probably make it more lethal and resilient

Not sure you could have a modern agile army with a professional NCO corps that could deliver the kind of devolved thinking you need to fight combined arms operations and a state run by a single party on behalf of a very very few people. Motivation and leadership through fear probably only works to deliver things like Napoleon's Grande Armee's column attacks, us and everyone else in the First World War, USSR's attrition in the second world war and the Chinese Human Waves in Korea.

You need people who are similar to engineers in pre -deskilled industries, educated to a reasonable vocational level over a few years, trained to have enquiring minds and independent thought. If they are also the people who have the keys to the armouries and know where the tanks are parked you could well end up fucked quite quickly. Throw in that you would also need a competent officer cadre too and I wonder if a totalitarian state could field a modern army?

 

[Dystopiary]

Oh grow up. What a waste of a post. You want to insert 'sadly' three times in every sentence on this subject? What difference does it make? If everybody's words are policed by you so that every death has to have the obvious tragedy of it pointed out, every point becomes diluted and you close your eyes to the ruthlessness of the people who are actually making the decisions. Focus your anger on them, not me. I don't make the rules.

You don't think you were being flippant, and that it was immature to point it out, ok. I don't think anybody's going to close their eyes to the ruthlessness of the perpetrators of this war because I said you were being flippant though.

It's not either or. It's possible to have opinions on other things whilst condemning what Putin's doing, obviously.

 

[Dystopiary]

You say Scotland would join the EU but that seems to fly in the face of Spain being likely to veto as they don't want to send a message to the Catalans that they might go the same route

That's a good point. Shit.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not sure you could have a modern agile army with a professional NCO corps that could deliver the kind of devolved thinking you need to fight combined arms operations and a state run by a single party on behalf of a very very few people. Motivation and leadership through fear probably only works to deliver things like Napoleon's Grande Armee's column attacks, us and everyone else in the First World War, USSR's attrition in the second world war and the Chinese Human Waves in Korea.

You need people who are similar to engineers in pre -deskilled industries, educated to a reasonable vocational level over a few years, trained to have enquiring minds and independent thought. If they are also the people who have the keys to the armouries and know where the tanks are parked you could well end up fucked quite quickly. Throw in that you would also need a competent officer cadre too and I wonder if a totalitarian state could field a modern army?

we'll find out when the chinese and the americans line up for the big one in about a thousand days time (well, in 2025 which is a mite more than a thousand days away)

 

[kebabking]

I remember a German appraisal of the US Army during WW2 - that all war is chaos, and the US Army practices chaos every day...

 

[emanymton]

I don't think it's gone perfectly and am really jusr raising one scenario. But I'm not sure all this perceived as weaker by the West really bothers him that much. They aren't so weak the West was prepared to send Ukraine fighter jets. And bad PR vs having a couple of client states on the border rather than a civil war is possibly a price worth paying.

It's not so much the west seeing them as weak that could be an issue but their allies and client states.

 

[The39thStep]

Whose doing the Ukrainian PR ? It’s a huge operation with bespoke segments for allies/ would be allies plus military narrative .

 

[emanymton]

Whose doing the Ukrainian PR ?

Russia, mostly.

 

[Cid]

we'll find out when the chinese and the americans line up for the big one in about a thousand days time (well, in 2025 which is a mite more than a thousand days away)

Why 2025? Next pres?

 

[Cid]

Not sure you could have a modern agile army with a professional NCO corps that could deliver the kind of devolved thinking you need to fight combined arms operations and a state run by a single party on behalf of a very very few people. Motivation and leadership through fear probably only works to deliver things like Napoleon's Grande Armee's column attacks, us and everyone else in the First World War, USSR's attrition in the second world war and the Chinese Human Waves in Korea.

You need people who are similar to engineers in pre -deskilled industries, educated to a reasonable vocational level over a few years, trained to have enquiring minds and independent thought. If they are also the people who have the keys to the armouries and know where the tanks are parked you could well end up fucked quite quickly. Throw in that you would also need a competent officer cadre too and I wonder if a totalitarian state could field a modern army?

Yeah reforming an entire military, particularly one with entrenched corruption, cronyism etc is a monumental task. Usually one completed by a random colonel who's learned how to work independently, has the loyalty of their troops and is willing to do a bit of rubicon crossing.

 

[kebabking]

Whose doing the Ukrainian PR ? It’s a huge operation with bespoke segments for allies/ would be allies plus military narrative .

Their media game has been spectacular. There's not a military/state in the world who couldn't learn lessons by the bucketload from them...

 

[David Clapson]

You don't think you were being flippant, and that it was immature to point it out, ok. I don't think anybody's going to close their eyes to the ruthlessness of the perpetrators of this war because I said you were being flippant though.

It's not either or. It's possible to have opinions on other things whilst condemning what Putin's doing, obviously.

I wasn't being flippant, I was being bleak. I realise it's hard to tell the difference in a short post, but I would hope that it's obvious that everyone here is being bleak. Nobody rational and humane can be flippant about such horror. It's as bad as a Holocaust joke. The people who tell those aren't on this site.

We need to be honest about the bleakness because of the equation which western leaders are using. Dead or tearful Ukraine civilians plus dead or defeated Russian soldiers = donations of weapons. It's callous, political expediency. They (the leaders) rein in their humanitarian instincts because they don't want to lose their jobs. They don't want to be like Merkel, who followed her heart and let in so many Syrian refugees that she lost a lot of support. I wish we had more female leaders. I think the bleak equation is a product of the patriarchy. I'd like to know the real story of why so many of our foreign secretaries didn't compensate Iran for their tanks. I can't abide Liz Truss, but for all we know, Nazanin would not be free if Truss was a man. I doubt we'll find out until everything's declassified a few decades after the event.

The war correspondents are well aware of the above equation, so they're racing around 24/7 on a non-stop search for a haunting image which will be hailed as 'iconic' and strengthen the case for heavy weapons. They want the Alan Kurdi photo of this war. Or the Afghan Girl with Green Eyes. Or the Vietnamese Napalm Girl. But our papers and TV aren't allowed to show gore. Children's wounds are blurred out. There's astonishing gore in Ukraine military twitter, but in the UK we put that in a separate mental compartment. Even if we see it, it doesn't get included in the equation. If it's not suitable for a Fleet Street front page, it's not part of the public discourse. It's all so hypocritical and callous and self-serving. I hate it, I detest it, it makes me ashamed and angry. I find myself half-hoping for Putin to continue as fast as possible down his road to defeat, so the whole thing can end. Today, I'm frustrated by the Russian hints that they're no longer trying to occupy Kyiv, because it encourages more foot-dragging on the heavy weapons issue.

 

[Idris2002]

Did Biden actually say this? Because as another chitterhead says, it's only going to make VP dig in his heels more (which means more dead children). I found this from another twittertwat who drew the obvious comparison with Gaddafi - who left power by having a bayonet rammed up his jacksie.

I mean, I always thought that the "Biden is Senile" stuff was cope by disappointed Bernie supporters, but either he is losing his marbles at a rate of knots, or he's surrounded by idiots who'll let him say things like this.

 

[elbows]

Did Biden actually say this? Because as this chitterhead says, it's only going to make VP dig in his heels more (which means more dead children). I found this from another twittertwat who drew the obvious comparison with Gaddafi - who left power by having a bayonet rammed up his jacksie.

I mean, I always thought that the "Biden is Senile" stuff was cope by disappointed Bernie supporters, but either he is losing his marbles at a rate of knots, or he's surrounded by idiots who'll let him say things like this.

Biden says the wrong thing very often these days.

It was only a few days ago that he talked about 'responding in kind' to any Russian chemical weapons attacks, and then when speaking to US troops in Poland he told them about some stuff they'd see in this war when they went to Ukraine themselves.

 

[Idris2002]

Biden says the wrong thing very often these days.

It was only a few days ago that he talked about 'responding in kind' to any Russian chemical weapons attacks, and then when speaking to US troops in Poland he told them about some stuff they'd see when they went to Ukraine themselves.

This is Reagan-level imbecility.

"Nothing's stopping the cretins from hopping"

 

[elbows]

This is Reagan-level imbecility.

Allowances are being made for it these days, in the media and via Whitehouse clarification exercises. Especially after this one in early March: “Putin can surround Kyiv with tanks, but he will never win the hearts of the Iranian people.”

 

[Idris2002]

Allowances are being made for it these days, in the media and via Whitehouse clarification exercises. Especially after this one in early March: “Putin can surround Kyiv with tanks, but he will never win the hearts of the Iranian people.”

Gonna go for a whirl with my cretin girl

 

[Pickman's model]

Why 2025? Next pres?

It's always been 2025, don't know why

 

[A380]

It's always been 2025, don't know why

Have you got some weird Mayan calendar thing on the wall or something?

 

[Idris2002]

It's always been 2025, don't know why

See here:

http://www.sociostudies.org/journal/files/seh/2007_2/war_cycles.pdf

 

[Artaxerxes]

I remember a German appraisal of the US Army during WW2 - that all war is chaos, and the US Army practices chaos every day...

“when the Germans fly over, the English duck. When the English fly over the Germans duck. And when the Americans fly over, everyone ducks!"

 

[og ogilby]

“when the Germans fly over, the English duck. When the English fly over the Germans duck. And when the Americans fly over, everyone ducks!"

What happens when the ducks fly over?

 

[DaveCinzano]

What happens when the ducks fly over?

Everyone gets covered in duck shit

 

[Raheem]

What happens when the ducks fly over?

The French toast.

 

[dilute micro]

So, you want to finally win the war in the East you've been covertly fighting for years. First make your strategic goals clear to the Russian populace - the liberation of Donbas, along with vague demands for denazification that could mean anything. Launch a half hearted attempt to circle the capital on the other side of the country using a bunch of fresh infantry, conscripts and Chechnyans armed with whatever old tat's been sitting around taking up space in military bases since the Cold War. Realise the army's better than you thought and the leadership won't do a runner so resort to using missile strikes to bomb infrastructure and weaken the military. Sail a few ships off the coast of Odessa and start lobbing missiles elsewhere - anything to prevent the entire Ukranian army from charging East. Terrify the West into inaction with talks of nukes and Russian imperialism, neatly reminding both them and those at home what Russia was and could be again. Meanwhile use the army everyone in the Western media is pointing and laughing at to flatten the city linked to the forces you've been fighting for the last half decade and take over half the territory you originally wanted in the first place. Then when losses elsewhere get too much withdraw a little, resort to missile strikes and watch Western liberals shuffle their feet and mutter well an independent Donbas isn't so bad I suppose and a land corrider to Crimea isn't that unreasonable. Forces concessions from Zelensky by saying we'll fuck off from Kiev if you fuck off from Donetsk and Luhansk. Win the war by declaring your strategic goals met to a joyous Russia - and if they aren't joyous enough then arrest/exile them. Rebuild economic ties with the money grabbing elements of the West. Tip China a wink and say we told you we weren't plotting WW3. Win the next election on the back of jingoistic nationalist sentiment. Start planning the next land grab.

Ever get the feeling you've been cheated? Maybe I'm utterly wrong about this, but it's at least within the realm of possibilities that Putin has played the West, and in particular the Western media, like a fucking fiddle.

It's not a show. It's all the things reported up to now - corruption, overconfidence, poor training, poor equipment, poor motivation etc.. They're not good. They're communicating with cell phones. Their generals and colonels are getting killed in the field. Columns of tanks and trucks are being abandoned. Soldiers are going into houses looking for food and clothing and then hiding in the forests. Command & control are being destroyed by drones. Putin's replacing staff. This is failure. It's not the work of a mastermind.

 

[DaveCinzano]

This is failure. It's not the work of a mastermind.

Of course that's just what a true mastermind would want you to think

 

[Artaxerxes]

What happens when the ducks fly over?

Dinner

 

[A380]

Of course that's just what a true mastermind would want you to think