Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Just jumping in to say....


I've not been very well mentally being right on the edge of a war zone, and today's news has jumped me out of the mental death hole I was in...

Anyway...

I haven't read much for the past 3 days cuz my husband basically blocked loads of websites, to stop me scrolling and damaging my mental health. I got my phone back today.


BIG QUESTION:

WHERE IS PUTIN?

last time we saw him it was on that ridiculous Nuremberg rally obvious green screen thing 8 DAYS AGO. Now, the other main dude Segei Shoigu is missing in action for 3 days DESPITE having been active on Twitter and social media until complete silence.

My mental well-being took a dive watching planes bomb carrying planes go to Kaliningrad, and military planes go off to deepest urals 10 days ish ago.

Since then , we've seen NOTHING. Apart from France starting off nuke subs, NATO (which was nearly dead) getting all tetchy.

USA hadn't heard a peep from any military counterparts for the best part of a week despite requests for talks with anything further up then lane general.

NOT A PEEP OUT OF ANY OF THEM.

Now, apparently 3 days ago there was some zoom meeting broadcast where Shoigu (the military fucking man in charge man) said NOTHING for the whole meeting. And no one actually knows when it was recorded.

And now we've got "PLEASE GIVE US DONBASS"?! as a get out from some low down guy.


I swear... Until about 3 hours ago, I was convinced we were all about to die in a nuclear fire, or that (last te I read these forums) Russia were NO WAY going to stop at the Ukrainian border... Which I do think was the plan.

But now?

These cunts, Putin, the circle, are all dead meat right now.

Like actually dead. Where the fuck are they? Where is their talk?

Why is Viktor Orbán getting wobblies in NATO?

Where are the actual people in charge?!??!

 

[strung out]

WHERE IS PUTIN?

He was on TV today going on about JK Rowling and cancel culture. Yes, really.

 

[Crispy]

UKR government bod on twitter saying Shoigu had a heart attack. No confirmation from RUS, but then there wouldn't be would there.

 

[Sue]

UKR government bod on twitter saying Shoigu had a heart attack. No confirmation from RUS, but then there wouldn't be would there.

'Heart attack'..?

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

He was on TV today going on about JK Rowling and cancel culture. Yes, really.

He did that weeks ago tho. Same schtick. Cancel culture, Russia cancelled. Etc etc.

Where is Putin actually saying something new about pulling out, the great success of his military operation, etc? You know... Recent relevant stuff that he usually loves? Great rambling speeches and letters?

Isn't it usually the Man In Charge that makes these grand announcements about wonderful military achievements?

Like, "my people of great Russia, we met all our achievements".

Instead we get the same shit from weeks ago about Russia being cancelled.. it's all very weird and incongruent.

 

[steveseagull]

Write up of state TV show with military experts and commentators. It is safe to say, the conversation has proper gone off piste. Lots of worried propagandists. Gone from 'they could take Ukraine in a few days' to saying it could take 40 years.

Kremlin TV Descends Into Screaming Match Over Putin’s War Failures

There’s no hiding the cracks that have formed on Russian airwaves over the war in Ukraine any longer.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[frogwoman]

I did laugh and wondered how that went down on twitter, but I didnt go and look. Putin hasnt been spending enough time on Twitter lately, otherwise he could also have made use of the fact that people there noticed that Graham Lineham was crying in an interview the other day about how his bigotry cost him his marriage etc.

Is victim of woke SJW transactivist mobs Graham Linehan going to be hired as Vlad's Speechwriter?

 

[Smangus]

Whatever happens now Russia is fucked big time.

 

[A380]

'Heart attack'..?

"In the end, almost everyone actually dies from heart failure."

 

[steveseagull]

Sergei is back!

 

[steveseagull]

The video is of him complaining that Gary Barlow is too woke.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Would love to know if this is happening more frequently.

Mutinous Russian troops ran over their own commander, say western officials

Officials describe reported incident during fighting in Ukraine as sign of ‘morale challenges’ faced by invading forces

www.theguardian.com

 

[SpackleFrog]

This interview with Timothy Snyder, historian, is worth a watch. A shortened version of it was on C4 News yesterday Ukraine is ‘defending all of us’ from Putin – Timothy Snyder Interview He says Putin is basically an imperialist who will invade Poland if he succeeds in Ukraine. I think Western leaders accept this now, and they'll equip Ukraine with heavy weapons. It's already WW3 but without nukes and Ukraine as a proxy for Nato. No use pretending any different.

Snyder's 'analysis' is extremely poor by the way, just cos no one else seems to have pointed out. Putin won't be invading a NATO member state.

 

[Pickman's model]

This interview with Timothy Snyder, historian, is worth a watch. A shortened version of it was on C4 News yesterday Ukraine is ‘defending all of us’ from Putin – Timothy Snyder Interview He says Putin is basically an imperialist who will invade Poland if he succeeds in Ukraine. I think Western leaders accept this now, and they'll equip Ukraine with heavy weapons. It's already WW3 but without nukes and Ukraine as a proxy for Nato. No use pretending any different.

The thing about world wars, you know, is they engulf the whole world. This doesn't. Next you'll be telling us that David Starkey knows what he's on about as he's a historian too, or David Irving.

 

[existentialist]

"In the end, almost everyone actually dies from heart failure."

"In Russia, heart attack dies of you"

 

[LDC]

Snyder's 'analysis' is extremely poor by the way, just cos no one else seems to have pointed out. Putin won't be invading a NATO member state.

The same way plenty of people, especially on the left, said he definitely wouldn't be invading Ukraine, or a different kind of 'won't be'?

 

[SpackleFrog]

The same way plenty of people, especially on the left, said he definitely wouldn't be invading Ukraine, or a different kind of 'won't be'?

On the subject of predictions, Snyder said Trump would suspend democracy and take over the govt at the start of his presidency.

I never said Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine. But states don't attack nuclear powers or their NATO allies.

 

[Pickman's model]

On the subject of predictions, Snyder said Trump would suspend democracy and take over the govt at the start of his presidency.

I never said Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine. But states don't attack nuclear powers or their NATO allies.

You mean you hope states don't attack nuclear powers. Or that nuclear powers don't attack nuclear powers.

 

[gosub]

On the subject of predictions, Snyder said Trump would suspend democracy and take over the govt at the start of his presidency.

I never said Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine. But states don't attack nuclear powers or their NATO allies.

Apart from Argentina

 

[A380]

Apart from Argentina

Or India and/or Chiina where both countries have nuclear weapons…
Or Iraq when they started lobbing ballistic misiles into Israel during the Kuwait invasion.
There’s probably a few more but it’s sunny out…

 

[tim]

[R

He was on TV today going on about JK Rowling and cancel culture. Yes, really.

And from mid-May he'll be doing a two hour slot five nights a week between Darren Grimes and Dan Wooton.

 

[LDC]

On the subject of predictions, Snyder said Trump would suspend democracy and take over the govt at the start of his presidency.

I never said Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine. But states don't attack nuclear powers or their NATO allies.

No maybe you didn't, but plenty of people did, so ascertaining that he now definitely won't invade or attack another country, especially given some of the rhetoric from him and others, warrants at least us having a hint of skepticism that the position might be inaccurate like the other recent ones.

 

[SpackleFrog]

No maybe you didn't, but plenty of people did, so ascertaining that he now definitely won't invade or attack another country, especially given some of the rhetoric from him and others, warrants at least us having a hint of skepticism that the position might be inaccurate like the other recent ones.

Thats completely fair but I think we can still say it's extremely unlikely.

 

[not-bono-ever]

I sad he wouldn’t invade. I thought it was economic suicide. Meh

 

[existentialist]

I sad he wouldn’t invade. I thought it was economic suicide. Meh

Well, it's definitely turning out to be economic suicide, for sure.

 

[frogwoman]

I said he wouldn't invade pretty much right until it happened.

 

[og ogilby]

Well, it's definitely turning out to be economic suicide, for sure.

I thought it was a special economic operation.

 

[elbows]

Thats completely fair but I think we can still say it's extremely unlikely.

We can also look at various reasons why it comes up now:

Zelensky goes on about it as part of his campaign to get NATO and European powers and populations to see the threat against Ukraine as a more direct threat against their nations. In much the same way as they kept raising the prospect of radioactive contamination of Europe.

Overcompensating for fears of Russia invading Ukraine having been downplayed by some.

As part of the visuals stemming from NATO compensating for all the things it wont do in Ukraine by increasing spending, rhetoric and increasing forces in countries on its eastern edge. Which does include some real stuff such as trying to reassure those countries. But also getting populations to accept the need to deal with security in this way, spend more money on militaries etc.

Part of the response to Putins broader threatening rhetoric which was itself a response to countries supporting Ukraine, sanctioning Russia and supplying Ukraine with weapons.

Hedging bets by reducing the chance of making mistakes involving unsafe assumptions and underestimating Russias intent in future.

 

[dilute micro]

Well, it's definitely turning out to be economic suicide, for sure.

The west will have to keep the pressure on and not let up. The message has to be sent to future leaders. I hate it for the Russians who are victims of their own government but this has to be done.

 

[elbows]

The BBC finally had an article about the dangers of wishful western thinking, but much of the article isnt really about that subject at all, and even when it does actually dwell on that subject its mostly turned into a simple story of not reducing the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

War in Ukraine: The danger of wishful Western thinking

With Russia still a powerful force, wide-eyed realism is what Ukraine needs from the US and Europe.

www.bbc.co.uk

Lyse Doucet has also been inserting careful credibility-saving caveats into the more optimistic reporting of recent days in regards Kyiv and the remaining threat.