Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Curious how those banking goblins had hooked noses
bimble
floofy
Him saying “in kind” is just very silly. It means nothing, what a daft thing to say. For weeks now they’ve been blathering on about what response they would make to chemical weapons being used and to date haven’t said a single concrete threat of any sort, it’s just we will be very cross bluster.
Cid
Proper break this time
For those who want some easy listening on the many, many problems with HP there's a video by Shaun (I say easy listening because visual stuff is minimal).
Cid
Proper break this time
There seems to be a lot of posturing, leaking to push certain lines within US diplomacy. Dangerous.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
The worst thing NATO could do now is to start making concrete threats - that's just making a rod for their own backs.
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
When you've finished doom watching there's always this little Scouse/Russian relations heart tugging romance to watch. Complete with our adorable Margi Clarke
Letter to Brezhnev - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Maybe we should get Anonymous to stream it on Vlad's Nyetflix
If I remember rightly, the sailor in Letter to Brezhnev was Ukrainian from Odesa.
Quick namedrop moment... I met Margi Clarke a couple of times in the late 70s. She was in a band, but I can't remember what they were called, or if they were any cop. I liked her though.
bimble
floofy
Why? Only true if they don’t have any kind of response agreed at all.
If they have a planned response that they think might actually dissuade Putin from using chemical weapons they need to spell it out, to have any chance of stopping him. They don’t though.
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Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
When you've finished doom watching there's always this little Scouse/Russian relations heart tugging romance to watch. Complete with our adorable Margi Clarke
Letter to Brezhnev - Wikipedia
Maybe we should get Anonymous to stream it on Vlad's Nyetflix
I've got to watch that know.
Aside (sorry folks): Is that Julia Brogan from Brookside?!
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Because directly threatening the Russian bear when he's trapped in a corner is not a good idea, and could easily make him lash out in anger, but being verge leaves him wondering if he wants to push things over the edge and risk a serious response that he wouldn't expect and doesn't want.
bimble
floofy
i don't understand that kind of reasoning and he's not a bear but ok.
If the full extent of the concerted sanctions had been agreed and fully spelled out in detail a month ago i don't know if he'd have gone ahead with the whole stupid thing in he first place but it's too late now.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
What cupid_stunt said, but also because it's foolish to give Putin a firm line to scoot up to, and then "accidentally" overstep, just to see if NATO keep their promises.
bimble
floofy
Yeah I don’t agree. I think they just haven’t got any kind of agreed response at all. So he can pretty much do what he likes. Further sanctions won’t bother him anyway unless it’s a magic new oil source discovered on the day.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Totally agree, plus before the invasion, NATO announcing that they wouldn't get directly involved was such a fucking dumb thing to do, it gave him a green light to go ahead, a total fuck up.
gosub
~#
Looking back I don't think NATO had any choice.
bimble
floofy
It can’t have just been a mistake, repeated as it was many times . But I don’t understand it either.
Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
If you make a specific threat, then you are stuck with that option. Failure to carry out the specific threat once it's conditions have been met would nullify the effect of future threats and will lead to a catastrophic escalation because at some point an uncrossable line will be crossed due to previous perceived weakness.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I doubt all 30 NATO countries will ever agree on a response to any particular 'red line' being crossed, that's a weakness in NATO, but that doesn't stop certain NATO members taking their own action at any point.
Supine
Newt Member
NATO is a defensive alliance between partners. If they had said they’d get involved in this situation they’d be a very different and more aggressive organisation. What did you want them to do? Ukraine isn’t part of NATO.
bimble
floofy
Last time we discussed this on here the only idea was that it would be more sanctions in response to chemical weapons use. I imagine the Kremlin guesses the same and don’t give a monkeys at this point.
bimble
floofy
Yes. The question was why did they keep spelling out the fact that they would not get involved in Ukraine. Maybe it was to explain it to emotional people in their own countries .
CyberRose
أرفع الشفرات
I think Russia would still have a problem if it intended to occupy the entire Donbas region. The map below shows Donetsk and Luhansk (with Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk cities highlighted). I've drawn (in white) the approximate line of control according to the Minks Agreement, which shows the areas the separatists declared as the DPR and LPR. Red areas a predominantly Russian speakers, and blue areas are predominantly Ukrainian speakers. Maybe outside of these major cities it's easy-to-control countryside? But I don't think Russia will be welcome outside of the DPR and LPR, altho there may be no-one left to oppose them in Mariupol 
And they'll still be faced with the same problem as they did in 2014/15 when volunteer battalions contained Russia in the DPR and LPR areas, only this time the Ukrainian military will have 200,000+ better equipped soldiers as opposed to the 6,000 it had back then.
And they'll still be faced with the same problem as they did in 2014/15 when volunteer battalions contained Russia in the DPR and LPR areas, only this time the Ukrainian military will have 200,000+ better equipped soldiers as opposed to the 6,000 it had back then.
Supine
Newt Member
Because they are an alliance to defend each other, not a world peace keeping force. I agree maybe they shouldn’t have spelled it out, but it is there m.o.
Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
You're probably right. But having seen the results of ineffectual 'red line' threats made by Obama over Syria, Biden and NATO are probably reluctant to encourage a repeat performance.
gosub
~#
WHich the west have done. However the threats weren't sufficent in preventing Putin make a massive fuck up.
Well no. He's saying if Putin does x, he/they'll respond in a similar way. Which may be a stupid thing to say and unlikely to happen in terms of chemical weapons but it does mean something.
bimble
floofy
I am only talking about the spelling it out bit! I understand what nato is thanks.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
In Mariupol, they found a way of getting round the problem of not being welcome, and they probably find variations on the theme elsewhere in Donbass.I think Russia would still have a problem if it intended to occupy the entire Donbas region. The map below shows Donetsk and Luhansk (with Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk cities highlighted). I've drawn (in white) the approximate line of control according to the Minks Agreement, which shows the areas the separatists declared as the DPR and LPR. Red areas a predominantly Russian speakers, and blue areas are predominantly Ukrainian speakers. Maybe outside of these major cities it's easy-to-control countryside? But I don't think Russia will be welcome outside of the DPR and LPR, altho there may be no-one left to oppose them in Mariupol
And they'll still be faced with the same problem as they did in 2014/15 when volunteer battalions contained Russia in the DPR and LPR areas, only this time the Ukrainian military will have 200,000+ better equipped soldiers as opposed to the 6,000 it had back then.
View attachment 315860
They're not even going to want people from the two sides of the ceasefire line mixing, because then it's "Aren't you glad we saved you from the Nazis?"/"WTF are you talking about?"
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