Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
This is the wisest position to take because if he invades a NATO country we're unlikely to be around long enough to point and laugh at your wrong prediction.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I've allowed my perceptions to evolve but so far that mostly only gets me as far as 'Ukraine hasnt lost at the speed originally assumed, and Russia has had some really notable setbacks and failures too'.
‘Nobody understood what was happening’ Meduza tells the story of Albert Sakhibgareyev — a Russian contract soldier who deserted from the war in Ukraine — Meduza
Five weeks ago, 25-year-old contract soldier Albert Sakhibgareyev was in Russia’s Belgorod region, several miles from the Ukrainian border, where his brigade was “conducting training exercises.” Sakhibgareyev says he and his fellow soldiers would fire “wherever they were ordered to,” though what...
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
The longer they can hold out, the better for them.
The war will probably end with the cession of the eastern territories to Russia, and a land border to the Crimea - a fudge that will solve nothing, make revanchist, irredentist politics dominant in Ukraine, and give Putin a few more years in power (unless the rumours about his health are true).
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Perhaps, though a long pause is also likely (after a cessation of hostilities if they take the rest of the Donbas) - that would allow him to see how long the sanctions last, what happens to the (still fragile) coalition against him and allow further developments here, in the EU and US (especially with regards to Trump) to take place that probably will benefit them in the long run (since Western societies aren't doing anything to change or reform the weaknesses he has exploited).
dilute micro
esse quam videri
It's an answer of perspective. If overthrow of the Ukrainian government or depleting the Russian army's ability to be effective and achieve goals are the subject then yes the Ukrainians are currently winning. In a war you're going to take losses. That's a given. The winners of WW2 took huge losses.
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
agricola makes a point in passing about the fragility of the anti-Putin coalition there. While NATO has certainly not split, genuine differences in approach are evident between Washington, the Paris-Berlin axis, and Poland and the Baltics.
But whatever happens, Poland and the other Visegrad states (well, maybe not Hungary, but we'll see what happens in that case) are going to be fervently anti-Moscow, even if there's a change of regime there. Berlin will stick on its new course, even while remembering the sobering example of what Opa really did in the last round (they'll tell themselves that Paris will keep an eye on them). And the internal crisis of American society won't be overcome, but the fact that the current crisis is putting the brakes on globalization might actually help reduce the severity of that crisis. At the very least, it will bring US elites closer together.
Even if all the ducks aren't quite in a row, though, will that be enough to split the anti-Putin camp?
But whatever happens, Poland and the other Visegrad states (well, maybe not Hungary, but we'll see what happens in that case) are going to be fervently anti-Moscow, even if there's a change of regime there. Berlin will stick on its new course, even while remembering the sobering example of what Opa really did in the last round (they'll tell themselves that Paris will keep an eye on them). And the internal crisis of American society won't be overcome, but the fact that the current crisis is putting the brakes on globalization might actually help reduce the severity of that crisis. At the very least, it will bring US elites closer together.
Even if all the ducks aren't quite in a row, though, will that be enough to split the anti-Putin camp?
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
The Ukrainians have had swathes of the territory of the country occupied though, thouasands of people dead, a ruined economy etc plus loss of a strategic region which gives them access to the sea. Russia isn't leaving any time soon. Its taking them longer than he hoped but Ukraine isn't winning.
If we’re talking the grand sweep of history, I suspect that the days of the nation-state have already peaked. Whereas once there were grand empires, the trend now is towards regionalism, devolution, independence and tribalism. On those grounds, I suspect that by 3022, far from Russia having expanded to retake old Soviet states, it’s more likely to have splintered. Nothing is a smooth journey, though — between now and then, it could easily go the other way for a while. And, of course, events always happen that make a mockery of grand historic sweeps.
gosub
~#
I don't think the CCP would agree with that analysis
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
How long has Putin got for a long pause, to play a long game? He's run Russia for over 20 years already, he's getting on a bit, there's rumours about his health. And that's before any speculation about how secure his position will be once the Ukrainian war is done (which will depend on how and when it ends). Will whoever replaces him have the same expansionist vision and the will and the ability to carry it out? Is it a state vision or is it just Putin and his clique?
Playing a long game is about more that one person or small group. It took the East India Company well over a century of pestering the India's rulers before finally getting the exclusive trading rights that secured their position in the country. Does the Russian state have that singular a vision? Was it Putin seeing that the end is in sight that has prompted him to abandon the careful step by step approach that has always been his style and go for this ill judged full scale invasion?
That's lots of questions and I don't know the answers and I'm rubbish at predicting the future anyway.
They’re certainly hoping it’s wrong, I’ll grant you. Can you name me countries that have been really adding to their legal territory in recent decades though? Because there are tonnes of examples of countries splitting up.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
if we look at the changes between 1022 and now there's in the main been a trend from small polities to large states. it's really only been in the last hundred - and in particular the last fifty - years that the change has been the other way. so which are you going to look at for your prognosis, the grand sweep of history or the last fifty years?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
no one is going to win this war and the social, political, economic, environmental and health consequences are going to place a huge burden on ukraine even if they drive every last russian out of their territory this afternoon. all the shit people will have breathed in from the destroyed buildings, that's a load of asbestos and fuck knows what - like the dust from the world trade center. so there's that. the economic dislocation - the agricultural dislocation - the mental health implications for the next 20 years, there's going to be a lot of screwed up kids, let alone adults. and russia will also be suffering, partly through the sanctions, partly through their own losses: war is a terribly destructive thing but it seems to me atm less likely that vladimir putin will be among its immediate casualties.
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
Something else no one had on their 2022 bingo cards.
ska invita
back on the other side
I think the trend is going in two ways simultaneously:
On the one hand there's a trend to localism, regionalism, small state secession, ethno-nationalism, anti-globalisation and cynicism of big government.
On the other inter-national blocks are becoming more embedded, expanding and inter-competing. These may be Imperial in nature (like Russia) or trading blocs (like Mercosur).
They overlap - if Scotland got independence it would join the EU and NATO for sure.
One outcome of this current war is that the EU will be strengthened and NATO strengthened even further - a bloc unified through conflict. China's expansion has been discussed upthread - I see it as an imperial trajectory for sure. Inter-bloc competition is absolutely the background in which this war has to be framed.
This is why I dont go along with the focus on Putin, and especially not his mental health- its not about "one man" - there are many thousands of people in power across the planet with equally murderous politics, often cheerily elected too...cut off the head of one and there are endless more in the ranks .
Considering individuals and their personal ideologies is fine, but if its at the cost of ignoring systemic dynamics then its a very blinkered view.
...and to return to the question you ask, I expect Yes, there are many people under Putin with a similiar singular vision. There may be disagreements on tactics, but the overall thrust and direction is very likely the same. Its a very insular political system.
Last edited:
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Could I suggest this discussion be moved to it's own thread? I'd start one but don't have anything worthwhile to add.
Flavour
hang the bankers
See the Russians are just continuing their fucking bullshit mixed messages diversion shit
On the one hand they say they're focusing on the East, phase one over, Donbass focus... and we dutifully get distracted and talk about them being defeated and so on... Putin talks about JK Rowling on fucking purpose because he knows it will distract the Western media and make everyone laugh and so on.
At the same time they are raining bombs on Western Ukraine. They are not defeated and they are not admitting defeat, they are just continuing their information war.
On the one hand they say they're focusing on the East, phase one over, Donbass focus... and we dutifully get distracted and talk about them being defeated and so on... Putin talks about JK Rowling on fucking purpose because he knows it will distract the Western media and make everyone laugh and so on.
At the same time they are raining bombs on Western Ukraine. They are not defeated and they are not admitting defeat, they are just continuing their information war.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You say Scotland would join the EU but that seems to fly in the face of Spain being likely to veto as they don't want to send a message to the Catalans that they might go the same route
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I think the missile strikes on Lviv today probably have a lot to do with the fact the Biden is visiting Poland and has been close to the border, Russia is sending him a message.
ETA - this is what's on the Guardian's live updates...
Last edited:
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Nope but there’s no escaping the fact that Putin has absolutely fucked up far beyond his worst expectations. Whatever victory he achieves will by phyric
Even in the best scenarios he’s tanked his economy, woken up NATO and the EU and driven the baltics away by exposing how absolutely shit his army actually is while also fucking the Russian economy
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I suspect it will be back to the drawing board for the Russian army after this, and the resulting reforms will probably make it more lethal and resilient
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Not to mention killing thousands, if not tens of thousands of his troops. They can deny it all they like but at some point there’ll be a lot of mothers asking where their sons are.
Flavour
hang the bankers
The loss of those young men will be a disaster for the small towns they come from. But I get the feeling it will be easier for middle-class Muscovites to ignore, and at the moment all the hopes for any sort of opposition to Putin hinge on that Muscovite middle-class (liberal and even neoliberal as it may be)
So, you want to finally win the war in the East you've been covertly fighting for years. First make your strategic goals clear to the Russian populace - the liberation of Donbas, along with vague demands for denazification that could mean anything. Launch a half hearted attempt to circle the capital on the other side of the country using a bunch of fresh infantry, conscripts and Chechnyans armed with whatever old tat's been sitting around taking up space in military bases since the Cold War. Realise the army's better than you thought and the leadership won't do a runner so resort to using missile strikes to bomb infrastructure and weaken the military. Sail a few ships off the coast of Odessa and start lobbing missiles elsewhere - anything to prevent the entire Ukranian army from charging East. Terrify the West into inaction with talks of nukes and Russian imperialism, neatly reminding both them and those at home what Russia was and could be again. Meanwhile use the army everyone in the Western media is pointing and laughing at to flatten the city linked to the forces you've been fighting for the last half decade and take over half the territory you originally wanted in the first place. Then when losses elsewhere get too much withdraw a little, resort to missile strikes and watch Western liberals shuffle their feet and mutter well an independent Donbas isn't so bad I suppose and a land corrider to Crimea isn't that unreasonable. Forces concessions from Zelensky by saying we'll fuck off from Kiev if you fuck off from Donetsk and Luhansk. Win the war by declaring your strategic goals met to a joyous Russia - and if they aren't joyous enough then arrest/exile them. Rebuild economic ties with the money grabbing elements of the West. Tip China a wink and say we told you we weren't plotting WW3. Win the next election on the back of jingoistic nationalist sentiment. Start planning the next land grab.
Ever get the feeling you've been cheated? Maybe I'm utterly wrong about this, but it's at least within the realm of possibilities that Putin has played the West, and in particular the Western media, like a fucking fiddle.
Ever get the feeling you've been cheated? Maybe I'm utterly wrong about this, but it's at least within the realm of possibilities that Putin has played the West, and in particular the Western media, like a fucking fiddle.
David Clapson
Well-Known Member
Oh grow up. What a waste of a post. You want to insert 'sadly' three times in every sentence on this subject? What difference does it make? If everybody's words are policed by you so that every death has to have the obvious tragedy of it pointed out, every point becomes diluted and you close your eyes to the ruthlessness of the people who are actually making the decisions. Focus your anger on them, not me. I don't make the rules.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
In every war both sides loose to some extent. But I don't think that has ever been more true than this war.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
It is possible and I have considered it. But I really don't think so. Making your army deliberately look shit is not a great strategic move long term for an imperial power. However this ends, at the moment in looks like Russia will be seen as weaker than it was before and I can't see that being something they would want and plan for.
I also don't think the expected the sanctions against them to be as severe as they are. Short term they don't mean much, but long term they might. As could Europe looking elsewhere for its oil and gas.
Mind you I also worry that in the end Russian money and Russian resources will win out over Ukrainian PR, and a lot of the tough talk from Europe and the US will end up being little more than that.
Similar threads
