Latest episode of Sinica has an interview with a professor of international relations at Jinan University in Guangzhou.
Summing up a bit below, this is just a surface read of what they're discussing and some implications, not necessarily fully thought out from me.
My main takeaway is that general stalling is meeting denial and that that is somewhat inflated by general bureaucratic slowness. Relationship remains solid, but assessment of Russia's changing position is ongoing, and takes time (podcast was recorded 17th for reference). There will be changes in the 'tactical' expression of that relationship (I think this probably means things like level of voiced support, financial aid etc), but the strategic element doesn't change. That said there are probably cracks there... The worldviews are not exactly the same; China has benefitted enormously from western led international order, Russia has not (or I suppose has benefitted a very select group of people).
For Russia, or more accurately Russian elites, there may be a desire to return to the old order (or a romanticised view thereof). This isn't so true of China; China sees the US led world as a threat in security terms, but purely that. It wants changes to that order that fit better with the Chinese worldview, but it is very much in Chinese interests to preserve that order.
Also interesting note that all communication between Xi and Putin will be in very formal settings, through translators. Xi probably doesn't actually have a very good sense of the man.
Final interesting perspective; Russia asking China for military aid doesn't make a lot of sense. In the context of this partnership, Russia is usually the supplier. For them going to China for aid would be a signal of a disastrous breakdown in the ability to conduct a war. But there are military deals between the two, and perhaps there is room for fudging around the edges.
On a side note, both from this and recent discussions (today or yesterday) there may be hints toward some changes in China-India relations on the cards. There have been
talks between India's foreign minister and Wang Yi where there was agreement on importance of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. Reuters has a few different articles going on this, and it's a bit annoying unpicking them, and should be working. But there's
other stuff in there - deescalation at border mentioned, desire for normal relations mentioned.
Chinese international relations scholar Dingding Chen on Beijing's position in the Russo-Ukrainian War
supchina.com
With transcript (I don't know if this version is paywalled):
Dingding Chen, a professor of international relations at Jinan University, joins the Sinica Podcast to offer his perspective on how Beijing views the ongoing war in Ukraine.
supchina.com
