not-bono-ever
meh
TASS reported it arriving a few days ago
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think the problem is as the article suggests - that this stuff takes far longer to produce than it can be manufactured.
The UK bought 14,000 NLAWS, the 6,000 we've just said we'll transfer to Ukraine is probably the last of them. The current Javelin production run is about 600 a year - the Ukrainians are probably popping that off a week.
While the orders have been going in like it's Christmas, there's going to come a time, and not far off into the future, when the pot of stuff we've got, but isn't in our strategic, war reserve, is going to run dry.
This is Ukraine's problem - we (and everyone else in NATO) would quite like them to win, but we're not prepared to bet the house on it, and we genuinely believe that if Ukraine loses, Russia will come to our border - and then we'll need those Javelins ourselves...
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
JimW
支那暗杀团
Was just reading a bit of commentary elsewhere that included a sage paraphrase of Yogi Berra, "I try to avoid predictions, especially about the future."It isn't directly analogous to Ukraine, and the status of Taiwan is rather complicated, but the claims that they are one family and one people regardless of what the Ukrainians/Taiwanese think is a little bit similar.
It is also something of a red herring that Taiwan also claims to be the Republic of China and has a formal claim over Chinese territory, because all a declaration of formal independence would amount to is a name change and formal abandonment of those claims, so would risk triggering an invasion for the sake of symbolic change, so the complex status of Taiwan compared to Ukraine is something which is coerced. The point of view that they are on opposites side of an unfinished civil war with the CCP on one side and KMT on the other is part of revanchist propaganda and does not reflect the reality of relations today.
The Guomindang do not represent Taiwan and haven't been in power for quite some time, and further, Taiwanese nationalism is in fact something that has developed in opposition to them. The influence of the KMT military who came from the mainland after 1945 - always a minority and not a popular one either - has been greatly diluted with the end of military rule and the passage of time. The Communist Party insistence that only the Guomindang can represent Taiwan is a desperate attempt to keep up the narrative of being opposite sides of an unfinished civil war, which isn't necessarily how Taiwanese who aren't descended from the 1940s influx see it. They had already been seperated from China for 50 years before the defeat of Japan and were besides only on the periphery of the Qing Empire before that. Further, the KMT were not exactly welcomed as liberators; after 50 years apart the culture of Taiwan and Mainland China had already grown apart and the KMT repressed native and traditional Chinese customs much more aggressively than the Japanese did, and the amount of soldiers suffering PTSD probably did help things. Hence the rejection by Taiwanese of the KMT and the subsequent decades of white terror.
And as for other forms of revanchism like Mongolia; it is not a formal government policy because it is stupid to provoke Russia like that, but despite it not being officially promoted, retaking Mongolia in the distant future when China is strong enough is not exactly a niche viewpoint in China, and I came across it often enough.
There was an article going around identifying the 6 Wars that China Must Fight in the next 50 years, originally published in pro-Beijing media in Hong Kong. These are:
1) Unification of Taiwan
2) The islands of the South China Sea
3) Southern Tibet
4) Diaoyu and Liuqiu islands
5) Outer Mongolia
6) Territory stolen by Russia
手机搜狐网
m.sohu.com
I know this isn't formal government policy, but 4 of the 6 they are clearly interested in already. The article argues that after the first 4 are achieved China will be strong enough not to need Russian support so it can retake Mongolia and Vladivostok. Anecdotally I came across such views quite frequently in China, not just online but from Party members and people from military families. So there are surely a lot of people within the military and Party who think like this and I don't see why these attitudes wouldn't also exist at the top. If Russia ends up greatly diminished as a result of this war and therefore useless to China, we could find a shift in Chinese policy towards Mongolia happening sooner rather than later.
Anyway I'm aware this is a bit of a derail, so we can discuss over PM if you like or take it to another thread.
One point made there was that if they are watching this for hints on how to take Taiwan the speed and scale of the sanctions will give them pause as China's even more dependent on trade than Russia.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Capacity for 20 tanks, let’s hope it was fully loaded. Apparently lots of ammunition on board which is exploding and damaging other stuff in the vicinity. Oh dear, never mind.
Although there are lots of videos of drone attacks, the key question is, where are they operating? The suggestion by miltary pundits on tv shows is that air defence systems near Belarus and Russia is very intense, my guess is that there may be jamming in those area's. With increased jamming it may be impossible to control the drone via a radio link, and gps systems will give incorrect information, its possible to overcome these issues but its not easy.
In the coming months it will be interesting to see where the drone's are operating, as more and more drone videos come out, I'm sure someone will try to map out where the drone's are operating.
America probably has a number of different types of stealth drone's and/or jamming enemy systems to allow drone's to operate in contested airspace.
The big change in drone warfare is when countries like Turkey sells drones that can operate in area's with active air defence systems.
Was just reading a bit of commentary elsewhere that included a sage paraphrase of Yogi Berra, "I try to avoid predictions, especially about the future."
One point made there was that if they are watching this for hints on how to take Taiwan the speed and scale of the sanctions will give them pause as China's even more dependent on trade than Russia.
Yep I agree...
I think the more hawkish elements in the Chinese government were arguing that western countries are only interested in corporate profits so the response to them taking Taiwan would be tokenistic, short term and bearable. The response to Ukraine has probably put them on the back foot for now, although I suppose they might make the case that Ukraine directly concerns the security of European countries in a way that Taiwan doesn't.
FWIW, my guess is that the west wouldn’t meaningfully sanction China for invading Taiwan in the same way as it has done for Russia. I wouldn’t want to be gambling my country’s whole future on it, though. And China seems much more reflective about its decision making than Russia.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Yes, NATO would need anti-tank but not in the same way Ukraine does. It's a primary weapon for Ukraine. Columns of tanks and trucks wouldn't survive staging they way they have in Belarus and on the roads to Ukraine. The US air force alone is designed for removing hardware from the battlefield. A single B-52 takes out entire columns as they did in Iraq. Just lining up on a road would be fatal. Russia's military is in such a state of disrepair and disfunction they couldn't sustain an attack on a NATO country with NATO responding to push them out. The Russian military is first world competent only in video games and popular culture. In a strictly conventional war Russia would get pummeled. They are shit at their only job. They are knuckle draggers with nukes. What we see in Ukraine is a pitifully maintained, pitifully prepared, pitifully trained and pitifully managed army using throwback WW2 strategy. Escape from Ukraine is a more realistic video game.
It would be interesting to know how many of the weapons actually make it into the field and get used. I know the Ukrainians have to keep their methods of quartermastering super secret. I'd like to think that they've got a very efficient process.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
If the west sanctions Russia it loses vodka, some wheat and lots of gas. If it sanctions China it loses access to its entire industrial base and closes down eBay
Yes, exactly. And being willing to do it over the invasion of a country on your doorstep is a very different proposition to doing it over the invasion of a small island on the other side of the world.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
I've understood that they have around 20 top level commanders in theatre and of those 6 or 7 have been killed. Maybe someone will post a link to something on that.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Still think they'll want another decade or more to create better autarky first in key tech sectors before they risked it, quite apart from war not being actually that popular here the party's legitimacy is tied to providing economic stability and growth pretty tightly so they're very nervous of anything that threatens that even mildly.
My extremely naive view of the Chinese power is that it values stability more than anything. It wants everybody to know how they fit into the machine and keep doing it. Of course, all power wants this. But in China, power is more concentrated and better able to think long term about how best to maintain that stability.
I could be wrong. Most of what I know about China comes from a Chinese woman I sat next to at work for 7 years. She might be the equivalent of Liz Truss about Chinese politics for all I know. (Or worse, like Dominic Raab
)
I could be wrong. Most of what I know about China comes from a Chinese woman I sat next to at work for 7 years. She might be the equivalent of Liz Truss about Chinese politics for all I know. (Or worse, like Dominic Raab
)
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
This is from 8 March when only 3 had been killed, but it does make some interesting points- beyond this article, there are rumours of grumbling amongst the generals as they are picked off one by one.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
can we not do China on here as well, it's confusing enough
I would have thought that grumbling has reached epic levels now that the mortality rate is up above one in three
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
One thing I was thinking slightly bizarre is that Putin didn't learn from Napoleon or Hitler and attacked in winter. A quick read though and I see that Napoleon and Hitler both actually started their invasions in June, and there's a question over whether Napoleon was actually defeated by the freezing weather. Can't have helped though.
Still find it strange that Putin started the invasion in February, and was actually planning it earlier but delayed it to placate China?
Still find it strange that Putin started the invasion in February, and was actually planning it earlier but delayed it to placate China?
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Cid
Proper break this time
Ground is frozen in winter; better for vehicles.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
China do seem to be a country that want ‘order’ in international relations although unlike the west they don’t clothe it with talking about ‘good’.My extremely naive view of the Chinese power is that it values stability more than anything. It wants everybody to know how they fit into the machine and keep doing it. Of course, all power wants this. But in China, power is more concentrated and better able to think long term about how best to maintain that stability.
I could be wrong. Most of what I know about China comes from a Chinese woman I sat next to at work for 7 years. She might be the equivalent of Liz Truss about Chinese politics for all I know. (Or worse, like Dominic Raab
If Russia does substantially weaken itself economically and militarily I see no reason why China wouldn’t take advantage. ‘Countries have interests not friends’ . And the Russians did sell Alaska to the Americans after all. How much do they really need Vladivostok?
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
I'm not sure it's Ukrainian drones intercepting comms...
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
Repurposed paedohunter stings, catfishing lonely Russian generals seeking to meet younger Ukrainian generals
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
"Do you wanna see the size of my armoured column ?"
gosub
~#
0one or two things give me the impression uts full spectrum as well which must be quite unnerving for the Ruskies
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