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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Because Putin's vision is to regain Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Moldova, Romania and more. And prove that Western democracy is a failure, the USA is a failure, and his method of authoritarian leadership is what the world needs.

Vietnam and Korea were thought at the time to be WW3 when people believed in the domino theory.
Having seen the result of them engaging an army that has had maybe 8-9 years of direct engagement and military exercises 'dress rehearsing' this situation, I would not want to be a Russian squaddie going up against the likes of Finland who've been practising for this very scenario for the past 70-odd years...
 
It really isn't, though I suppose you could tendentiously argue it's about keeping the one they have.

Depends how you define Empire.

They are certainly keen on taking back Taiwan, which at the end of the day is objectively revanchist Empire building, no less than Russia invading Ukraine and the situations have quite a lot of similarities really, e.g. the unilateral declaration of kinship. Attempting to annex the entirety of the South China Sea seems like imperialism as well.

We can only speculate on their wider goals, and most likely that they themselves don't know. But I don't think you could say with any certainty that they would stop with Taiwan. It seems self-evident that they feel entitled to be hegemon of Asia, and the "great rejuvenation" essentially refers to returning to hegemon status. In reality a major reason they will never compromise on Taiwan is the same reason they want the South China Sea - they want naval hegemony over the Pacific. By controlling shipping lanes there they can effectively control choke points in global trade and exert control that way.

For what this would look like, you would only have to assume they continue behaving as they currently do, using every piece of economic leverage in their power to exert influence over private companies. At the moment this means things like informally banning imports or "discovering" that something doesn't meet regulations, manipulating social media to create boycotts, or making certain demands in exchange for market access.

If they had total control over shipping in the Pacific, which is what they really want and a big part of why they want Taiwan, I don't see any reason why they wouldn't continue trying to bend countries in the region to their will, but with more tools to do so. They essentially used astroturfed social media and state power to stir up a campaign of harassment against South Korean citizens and businesses in China over the THAAD issue, I don't think they would be shy about naval blockade of the Korean Peninsula or against Japan whenever they felt they need either. The subtle and not-so-subtle attempts to claim that South Korea was culturally a part of China seem to me quite possibly deliberate attempts to get people used to the idea that Korea belongs to China. Here is some background for people who aren't familiar with this: [Newsmaker] SBS cancels ‘Joseon Exorcist’ after historical controversy

I don't think you can say with any certainty that they aren't interested in Empire building. I think that the nature of the Chinese political system is inherently prone to expanding its power, for reasons that 20th Century critics of totalitarianism have outlined which also quite clearly apply to Xi's China.

Hannah Arendt wrote:

[The method of infallible prediction] is foolproof only after the movements have seized power. Then all debate about the truth or falsity of a totalitarian dictator’s prediction is as weird as arguing with a potential murderer about whether his future victim is dead or alive – since by killing the person in question the murderer can promptly provide proof of the correctness of his statement. The only valid argument under such conditions is promptly to rescue the person whose death is predicted. Before mass leaders seize the power to fit reality to their lies, their propaganda is marked by its extreme contempt for facts as such, for in their opinion fact depends entirely on the power of man who can fabricate it. The assertion that the Moscow subway is the only one in the world is a lie only so long as the Bolsheviks have not the power to destroy all the others. In other words, the method of infallible prediction, more than any other totalitarian propaganda device, betrays its ultimate goal of world conquest, since only in a world completely under his control could the totalitarian ruler possibly realize all his lies and make true all his prophecies.

This is a perfect description of how the Communist Party of China operates. There is no objective truth or not, only 话语权, discourse power. In fact Wang Huning, the main intellectual of the Party,- says in his earlier work that the Communist Party can only survive by controlling all the information outside of China, and I think it is quite obvious that they are taking vigorous steps to achieve this, and that this is an impetus which will makes them strive for maximal expansion of power.

Further, the Communist Party is totalitarian in that it accepts no limits whatsoever to its authority. Before Xi there was pretence at limits, with collective leadership and term limits. But now there are none, and it is not a coincidence that concentration camps re-emerged at the same time as firmer control over censorship and ideology came in, and at the same time as a more aggressive foreign policy, because the concentration camps are much more about the exercise of total power than they are about any political utility per se, this is also why they function as laboratories for social control as they do in Xinjiang today.

This passage from the chapter "Total Domination" (which I have written out here by hand, copied from my physical book as I can't find it online) in Arendt's "Origins of Totalitarianism" I found very haunting and strongly influences how I view the Communist Party of China. I read it after the disappearance of a Uyghur friend of mine who I had learned about the situation in Xinjiang from back on 2015-16 and I sought out Arendt in trying to make sense of it. It still sticks with me a lot and I think it is correct.

If we take totalitarian aspirations seriously and refuse to be misled by the common-sense assertion that they are Utopian and unrealizable, it develops that the society of the dying established in the camps is the only form of society in which it is possible to dominate man entirely. Those who aspire to total domination must liquidate all spontaneity, such as the mere existence of individuality will always engender, and track it down in its most private forms, regardless of how unpolitical and harmless these may seem. Pavlov's dog, the human specimen reduced to the most elementary reactions, the bundle of reactions that behave in exactly the same way, is the model "citizen" of a totalitarian state; and such a citizen can be produced only imperfectly outside of the camps.

The uselessness of the camps, their cynically admitted anti-utility, is only apparent. In reality they are more essential to the preservation of the regime's power than any of its other institutions. Without concentration camps, without the undefined fear they inspire and the very well defined training they offer in totalitarian domination, which can nowhere else be fully tested with all of its radical possibilities, a totalitarian state can neither inspire its nuclear troops with fanaticism nor maintain a whole people in complete apathy.
...
It is in the very nature of totalitarian regimes to demand unlimited power. Such power can be secured if literally all men, without a single exception, are reliably dominated in every aspect of their life. In the realm of foreign affairs new neutral territories must constantly be subjugated, while at home ever-new human groups must be mastered in expanding concentration camps, or, when circumstances require, liquidated to make room for others. The question of opposition is unimportant both in foreign and domestic affairs. Any spontaneously given friendship is from the point of view of totalitarian domination just as dangerous as open hostility, precisely because spontaneity as such, with its incalculability, is the greatest of all obstacles to total domination over man.
...
What makes conviction and opinion of any sort so ridiculous and dangerous under totalitarian conditions is that totalitarian regimes take the greatest pride in having no need of them, or of any human help of any kind. Men insofar as they are more than animal reaction and fulfillment of functions are entirely superfluous to totalitarian regimes. Totalitarianism strives not to despotic rule over men, but towards a system in which men are superfluous. Total power can be achieved and safeguarded only in a world of conditioned reflexes, or marionettes without the slightest trace of spontaneity.

Quite a lot of that passage and other parts of that chapter reminded me a lot of my experiences with the Chinese Communist Party, in particular the contempt for any form of opinion and extreme instrumentalism. I think this is also why some in the Party initially welcomed Trump, because they believed he is a businessman and would deal with them purely in transactional business terms, which is the preferred modus operandi of the totalitarian instrumentalist technocrats, as it amounts to predictable carrot-and-stick reactions. Meanwhile the liberal desire for international friendship with China is generally regarded with contempt, suspicion, or something that can be taken advantage of.

But based on this understanding of the instrumentalist technocratic state seeking constantly to achieve consistency in its propaganda system and viewing all information outside its control as a threat, whilst accepting no restrictions on its power, I think it would be very foolish to underestimate what the CCP are capable of and what their ambitions are.
 
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It is telling IMO that Kim Jong Un told Pompeo that he views US presence in South Korea as a useful bulwark against China. Kim Jong Un likely understands better than anyone the inner dynamics of the CCP at its highest echelons.
 
I dont think anyone will be able to predict what Putin will actually do next.

However, I think he wants to go down in history. And that scares me. He is capable of massive destruction. So the question might be this..will he turn that destruction on to more innocent people or onto himself? If he is aware of the absolute mess he has created maybe there is some part of him somewhere that will recognise how fucked up he is and maybe he will do the only thing that will end this
And commit suicide.

Or will he keep on and ignore the facts, throw another batch of young soldiers into a death pit...starve his own people and inflict horror on the people of Ukraine and potentially other countries. In the vain hope that he will win something? Win a barren destroyed land and the hatred of millions.

He has failed.
And failures do not last in the Kremlin. And he is possibly proud enough to want to do it himself and not give anyone else the notoreity
 
Seeing increasing footage of effective drone-directed artillery fire. Has the drone reinvigorated this quite old-school way of doing business?

If so, is the drone not some kind of super-weapon in that the only limit to its use is really your imagination - combine it with other weapons systems and it seems to be a game changer on a number of different levels. And that's before we even get into drone swarms and automation...

Not all military technological advances come from the most advanced places - in fact, many of the most consequential did not. We could be seeing a re-democratization of warfare - doing it effectively on the cheap. Probably not good news in the long-run - could be in for a lot of war in the coming years.
 
Not all military technological advances come from the most advanced places - in fact, many of the most consequential did not. We could be seeing a re-democratization of warfare - doing it effectively on the cheap. Probably not good news in the long-run - could be in for a lot of war in the coming years.
Glad to see you've caught up with daesh
As for being in for a lot of war you ain't seen nothing yet. The way governments have dealt with climate change this far ensures more resource wars in the future
 
Seeing increasing footage of effective drone-directed artillery fire. Has the drone reinvigorated this quite old-school way of doing business?

If so, is the drone not some kind of super-weapon in that the only limit to its use is really your imagination - combine it with other weapons systems and it seems to be a game changer on a number of different levels. And that's before we even get into drone swarms and automation...

Not all military technological advances come from the most advanced places - in fact, many of the most consequential did not. We could be seeing a re-democratization of warfare - doing it effectively on the cheap. Probably not good news in the long-run - could be in for a lot of war in the coming years.

It's a force multiplier. Artillery has always been vital, but now squads can direct it in real time in response to changing events from even further away and more safely than they could before.


A lot of this stuff has been done on the fly and for cheap by Libya, Syria, etc conflicts or even police. This is us seeing an actual army using it in real time and with money spent on it.
 
Seeing increasing footage of effective drone-directed artillery fire. Has the drone reinvigorated this quite old-school way of doing business?

If so, is the drone not some kind of super-weapon in that the only limit to its use is really your imagination - combine it with other weapons systems and it seems to be a game changer on a number of different levels. And that's before we even get into drone swarms and automation...
Maybe you should read about drones instead of posting about how you're watching more footage from them as everything in your post has been heavily written about over the past ten years. Libya and Syria as Artaxerxes mentions and Iraq and Afghanistan and the recent war over nagorno-karabakh, plus tons of stuff about swarms and automation.
 
Seeing increasing footage of effective drone-directed artillery fire. Has the drone reinvigorated this quite old-school way of doing business?

If so, is the drone not some kind of super-weapon in that the only limit to its use is really your imagination - combine it with other weapons systems and it seems to be a game changer on a number of different levels. And that's before we even get into drone swarms and automation...

Not all military technological advances come from the most advanced places - in fact, many of the most consequential did not. We could be seeing a re-democratization of warfare - doing it effectively on the cheap. Probably not good news in the long-run - could be in for a lot of war in the coming years.
We're witnessing the last wars of and age..if we make it.
 
He who wields the knife can never wear the crown. The gods won't abide it. It's why Starmer will never be prime minister.
Interesting leap from global politics / the future of the world / the potential end of humanity to the parochial factional bollocks of the Labour Party. But horses for courses I guess.
 
Pilot-flown aircraft have been rather irrelevant in the war so far, it must be said. The bomber plane, as a thing, seems to be pretty much out.


I’m not sure that would hold true for an airforce where a big chunk of their budget for precision guided free fall bombs and and missiles hadn’t been spent on flash cars, yachts and houses in Kensington…
 
Pilot-flown aircraft have been rather irrelevant in the war so far, it must be said. The bomber plane, as a thing, seems to be pretty much out.

And yes everyone should be aware that David Clapson is full of shit
Plenty dropping bombs in the south, read the accounts from Mariupol. The big cities have pretty good air defence so they’re getting cruise missiles lobbed at them, but out in the provinces particularly where aircraft can approach from the sea it’s dumb bombs on planes.

Russia is increasingly getting in on the drone game and lots of reports of strikes this week. They’re learning unfortunately, not stupid enough to stick with the same failing tactics of advancing unsupported tanks and artillery. Ukraine now on the counterattack will be vulnerable.
 
Depends how you define Empire.

They are certainly keen on taking back Taiwan, which at the end of the day is objectively revanchist Empire building, no less than Russia invading Ukraine and the situations have quite a lot of similarities really, e.g. the unilateral declaration of kinship. Attempting to annex the entirety of the South China Sea seems like imperialism as well.
The similarities are superficial; how Taiwan came about as an independent polity, the particular role of "reunification" in the discourse both on the mainland and in the island and the role of the US and how China perceives it are radically different - calling it a "unilateral declaration of kinship" is miles off for starters. Compare it with how Mongolia is perceived, if they were engaged in the sort of revanchism you suspect we'd be hearing the same there. You clearly know the country, you must surely have noticed that the "Taiwan question" is not some recent ginning up by the new hawks (setting aside how they seek to address it), it's been right at the core of the whole project since the civil war.
Was going to have a burble about the rest of your post too but had said didn't want to derail and work calls.
 
Well this is a somewhat pessimistic but I fear accurate article.


I am not surprised that Ukraine is running low on western supplied weapons, but the UK has already announced we are now going to double the number of missiles supplied, and that's before today's unprecedented one-day trio of NATO, G7 and EU summits, which Biden is attending, where I think we can expect further support from other countries being agreed.

I can't see the west letting down Ukraine at this stage.
 
The similarities are superficial; how Taiwan came about as an independent polity, the particular role of "reunification" in the discourse both on the mainland and in the island and the role of the US and how China perceives it are radically different - calling it a "unilateral declaration of kinship" is miles off for starters. Compare it with how Mongolia is perceived, if they were engaged in the sort of revanchism you suspect we'd be hearing the same there. You clearly know the country, you must surely have noticed that the "Taiwan question" is not some recent ginning up by the new hawks (setting aside how they seek to address it), it's been right at the core of the whole project since the civil war.
Was going to have a burble about the rest of your post too but had said didn't want to derail and work calls.

It isn't directly analogous to Ukraine, and the status of Taiwan is rather complicated, but the claims that they are one family and one people regardless of what the Ukrainians/Taiwanese think is a little bit similar.

It is also something of a red herring that Taiwan also claims to be the Republic of China and has a formal claim over Chinese territory, because all a declaration of formal independence would amount to is a name change and formal abandonment of those claims, so would risk triggering an invasion for the sake of symbolic change, so the complex status of Taiwan compared to Ukraine is something which is coerced. The point of view that they are on opposites side of an unfinished civil war with the CCP on one side and KMT on the other is part of revanchist propaganda and does not reflect the reality of relations today.

The Guomindang do not represent Taiwan and haven't been in power for quite some time, and further, Taiwanese nationalism is in fact something that has developed in opposition to them. The influence of the KMT military who came from the mainland after 1945 - always a minority and not a popular one either - has been greatly diluted with the end of military rule and the passage of time. The Communist Party insistence that only the Guomindang can represent Taiwan is a desperate attempt to keep up the narrative of being opposite sides of an unfinished civil war, which isn't necessarily how Taiwanese who aren't descended from the 1940s influx see it. They had already been seperated from China for 50 years before the defeat of Japan and were besides only on the periphery of the Qing Empire before that. Further, the KMT were not exactly welcomed as liberators; after 50 years apart the culture of Taiwan and Mainland China had already grown apart and the KMT repressed native and traditional Chinese customs much more aggressively than the Japanese did, and the amount of soldiers suffering PTSD probably did help things. Hence the rejection by Taiwanese of the KMT and the subsequent decades of white terror.

And as for other forms of revanchism like Mongolia; it is not a formal government policy because it is stupid to provoke Russia like that, but despite it not being officially promoted, retaking Mongolia in the distant future when China is strong enough is not exactly a niche viewpoint in China, and I came across it often enough.

There was an article going around identifying the 6 Wars that China Must Fight in the next 50 years, originally published in pro-Beijing media in Hong Kong. These are:

1) Unification of Taiwan
2) The islands of the South China Sea
3) Southern Tibet
4) Diaoyu and Liuqiu islands
5) Outer Mongolia
6) Territory stolen by Russia


I know this isn't formal government policy, but 4 of the 6 they are clearly interested in already. The article argues that after the first 4 are achieved China will be strong enough not to need Russian support so it can retake Mongolia and Vladivostok. Anecdotally I came across such views quite frequently in China, not just online but from Party members and people from military families. So there are surely a lot of people within the military and Party who think like this and I don't see why these attitudes wouldn't also exist at the top. If Russia ends up greatly diminished as a result of this war and therefore useless to China, we could find a shift in Chinese policy towards Mongolia happening sooner rather than later.

Anyway I'm aware this is a bit of a derail, so we can discuss over PM if you like or take it to another thread.
 
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