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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

China = Germany is just daft conspiraloonery.

There does seem to be a fairly widespread misunderstanding of China and its relationship to Russia, general political functioning etc. One that more engaged China specialists have pointed out repeatedly wrt diplomacy, discussion of Chinese political ideas on territorial integrity etc. It is pretty frustrating because we get this mess of entirely justified concerns over human rights abuses, HK, Taiwan, regional flexing etc mixed in with less justified concerns that China is part of some immutable bloc with Russia and liable to do a Putin at any moment. Because it's a relatively difficult place to get even a basic grasp of (which I suspect is less true of Putin's Russia, not that I know anything about that) that can end up being reflected and amplified in the press, and actually does reach into political circles (aforementioned diplomacy problems). Pumping up worries about China funding Russia, emphasising Biden 'warning' Xi etc... There is substance to all of that, but it's just a bit of a cackhanded approach imo. China's studied Russia-favouring neutrality is no bad thing really, and something that should be/should have been a foundation for carefully fleshing out an improved relationship. It's kind of a deeply fucked up approach in some ways - remembering the whole human rights abuses thing - but fuck, the absolute last thing we need is a China that feels threatened, backed into a corner etc.

I do have to check myself for being overly CCP tolerant though (I liked living in Xi's China, I'll admit that his CCP turning on billionaires, wealthy influencers etc is... kind of refreshing), so who knows really. Not me, and not a very large amount of people who should.
 
I don't think it's fair to call this ww3 yet by a long way. Otherwise why doesn't it apply to any of the major proxy wars (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq)?
Because Putin's vision is to regain Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Moldova, Romania and more. And prove that Western democracy is a failure, the USA is a failure, and his method of authoritarian leadership is what the world needs.

Vietnam and Korea were thought at the time to be WW3 when people believed in the domino theory.
 
There does seem to be a fairly widespread misunderstanding of China and its relationship to Russia, general political functioning etc. One that more engaged China specialists have pointed out repeatedly wrt diplomacy, discussion of Chinese political ideas on territorial integrity etc. It is pretty frustrating because we get this mess of entirely justified concerns over human rights abuses, HK, Taiwan, regional flexing etc mixed in with less justified concerns that China is part of some immutable bloc with Russia and liable to do a Putin at any moment. Because it's a relatively difficult place to get even a basic grasp of (which I suspect is less true of Putin's Russia, not that I know anything about that) that can end up being reflected and amplified in the press, and actually does reach into political circles (aforementioned diplomacy problems). Pumping up worries about China funding Russia, emphasising Biden 'warning' Xi etc... There is substance to all of that, but it's just a bit of a cackhanded approach imo. China's studied Russia-favouring neutrality is no bad thing really, and something that should be/should have been a foundation for carefully fleshing out an improved relationship. It's kind of a deeply fucked up approach in some ways - remembering the whole human rights abuses thing - but fuck, the absolute last thing we need is a China that feels threatened, backed into a corner etc.

I do have to check myself for being overly CCP tolerant though (I liked living in Xi's China, I'll admit that his CCP turning on billionaires, wealthy influencers etc is... kind of refreshing), so who knows really. Not me, and not a very large amount of people who should.
Xi's regime is, like Putin's, about building an empire. But he does it patiently with trade and intimidation. I'm sure he thinks Putin's method is a mistake. The West needs to prove to Xi that it's a mistake by ensuring that Putin loses.
 
The idea that WW3 has already started, but we haven't turned up yet, has significant traction in eastern and northern Europe. I rather believe it, and only time will tell whether Russia is Germany, or whether Russia is Italy, with China being Germany....
At least on the European front it will be a quick war.
 
Xi's regime is, like Putin's, about building an empire. But he does it patiently with trade and intimidation. I'm sure he thinks Putin's method is a mistake. The West needs to prove to Xi that it's a mistake by ensuring that Putin loses.
It really isn't, though I suppose you could tendentiously argue it's about keeping the one they have.
 
There does seem to be a fairly widespread misunderstanding of China and its relationship to Russia, general political functioning etc. One that more engaged China specialists have pointed out repeatedly wrt diplomacy, discussion of Chinese political ideas on territorial integrity etc. It is pretty frustrating because we get this mess of entirely justified concerns over human rights abuses, HK, Taiwan, regional flexing etc mixed in with less justified concerns that China is part of some immutable bloc with Russia and liable to do a Putin at any moment. Because it's a relatively difficult place to get even a basic grasp of (which I suspect is less true of Putin's Russia, not that I know anything about that) that can end up being reflected and amplified in the press, and actually does reach into political circles (aforementioned diplomacy problems). Pumping up worries about China funding Russia, emphasising Biden 'warning' Xi etc... There is substance to all of that, but it's just a bit of a cackhanded approach imo. China's studied Russia-favouring neutrality is no bad thing really, and something that should be/should have been a foundation for carefully fleshing out an improved relationship. It's kind of a deeply fucked up approach in some ways - remembering the whole human rights abuses thing - but fuck, the absolute last thing we need is a China that feels threatened, backed into a corner etc.

I do have to check myself for being overly CCP tolerant though (I liked living in Xi's China, I'll admit that his CCP turning on billionaires, wealthy influencers etc is... kind of refreshing), so who knows really. Not me, and not a very large amount of people who should.
What do you think of the alleged risk of PRC taking Taiwan in the near future?
 
There does seem to be a fairly widespread misunderstanding of China and its relationship to Russia, general political functioning etc.

Xi appearing with Putin just before the Winter Olympics for a joint statement against NATO expansion, and Russia then considerately waiting until the day after the Olympics had concluded wasn't exactly the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but I find it hard to believe that Xi (may he die a slow painful death) wasn't aware of what was going to happen and what message he was sending.
 
It really isn't, though I suppose you could tendentiously argue it's about keeping the one they have.
I see Belt & Roads and the investments in Africa, which are staffed and managed by Chinese expats, as an empire without the violence or the slavery. Xi has very cleverly adapted the East India Company's tactics for the modern age. His success does rather prove Putin's point that authoritariansim is better than democracy.
 
Xi appearing with Putin just before the Winter Olympics for a joint statement against NATO expansion, and Russia then considerately waiting until the day after the Olympics had concluded wasn't exactly the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but I find it hard to believe that Xi (may he die a slow painful death) wasn't aware of what was going to happen and what message he was sending.
Expected maybe he was told it would be quick thing over in a few days. In which case he could be a bit pissed of about now.
 
Xi's regime is, like Putin's, about building an empire. But he does it patiently with trade and intimidation. I'm sure he thinks Putin's method is a mistake. The West needs to prove to Xi that it's a mistake by ensuring that Putin loses.
Xi learned from the best - the Americans. When all is said and done, expect China in there with support and investment. Naturally selling Chinese services for them to be dependent on. They're already salivating at the prospect of a cut-off Russia becoming a dependent Chinese client state.

Hopefully we get a better toehold than they do, even if the West's idea of economic hegemony is only somewhat less dark.
 
I see Belt & Roads and the investments in Africa, which are staffed and managed by Chinese expats, as an empire without the violence or the slavery. Xi has very cleverly adapted the East India Company's tactics for the modern age. His success does rather prove Putin's point that authoritariansim is better than democracy.
I just don't see imperialism as a useful framework to describe that, the relationships with pretty much all the states isn't so dominant. Even somewhere like Burma where there's big land grabs and a China backed separtist polity don't fit.
 
Can't open Guardian links on my phone. Expect it will be about definitions, suspect someone like Tisdall will use be using it to mean doing bad things overseas, or does he offer some sort of power relations interpretation?
Here you go. Happy reading!

The US describes its newly announced diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics, backed by Britain and other western countries, as a protest against China’s “egregious human rights abuses and atrocities in Xinjiang”, where the Chinese Communist party (CCP) is accused of genocide, as well as its evisceration of Hong Kong’s democracy.

Yet a separate, lurking worry informs Washington’s action: that China may turn the games into a propaganda extravaganza, showcasing its growing strength to a global audience. Think Gladiator, and then think Xi Jinping, China’s authoritarian president, acting like a latter-day Roman emperor exercising power over life and death.

It’s not a fanciful image. An independent tribunal’s report last week described the ghastly reality facing thousands of Uyghurs who suffer “acts of unconscionable cruelty, depravity and inhumanity”, including torture and organised gang rapes, in Xinjiang’s concentration camps.

As the world’s athletes get a thumbs up to perform at the “people’s games”, Emperor Xi gives his uncounted, unseen victims a callous thumbs down.

It’s difficult to regard Xi – with his unassailable dictatorial powers, his techno-fascist surveillance state that stifles dissent and oppresses minorities, and his aggressively expansionist foreign policy – as anything other than a totalitarian control freak with imperial fantasies.

Empires, especially Britain’s, get a bad press nowadays. Their close association with colonialism, racism, slavery and other evils is reason enough. But the assumption that such abuses have been banished ignores what is happening in today’s world, right under our noses.

Imperialism, in all its awful forms, still poses a threat. But it is no longer the imperialism of the west, rightly execrated and self-condemned. Today’s threat emanates from the east. Just as objectionable, and potentially more dangerous, it’s the prospect of a totalitarian 21st-century Chinese global empire.

Historically speaking, empire-building relies on three factors, or projections. First come overseas trade networks or hubs, via maritime links and land corridors. Following close behind comes the establishment of overseas military bases to secure and defend these new interests, with or without local consent.

Last, nascent empires establish an (often delusional) narrative, or “mission statement”, to justify their activities. British imperialists claimed to be a civilising force, bringing law and Christianity to the great unwashed. The postwar American empire was, supposedly, all about championing democracy.

Almost as if it had made a study, the CCP is following this western imperialist handbook to the letter – with one important caveat. Beijing does not fight distant foreign wars to sustain its dominance, as the US did in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and Britain did all over the world. Not yet, anyway.

The first phase of China’s new imperial age is already in train. Xi’s ambitious belt and road investment and infrastructure initiative (BRI) touches 60 countries. China is the world’s largest trading nation and largest exporter, with $2.6tn worth of exports in 2019.

The CCP’s focus is meanwhile shifting to empire phase two: military bases. US media reported last week that the port city of Bata in Equatorial Guinea could become China’s first Atlantic seaboard naval base – potentially putting warships and submarines within striking distance of America’s east coast.

In what could serve as a case study of Chinese neo-imperial strategy, Beijing offered billions in loans to Equatorial Guinea’s corrupt dictator, whom the US in contrast accuses of serious human rights abuses. In such ways are alliances forged and empires built.

China already has a naval base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa. It is said to be considering an island airbase in Kiribati that could in theory threaten Hawaii. Meanwhile, it continues to militarise atolls in the South China Sea.

A Pentagon report last month predicted China will build a string of military bases girdling the world, including in the Arctic. CCP “target” countries include Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya and Angola, it said.

US concerns about Chinese inroads in Central America centre on Cuba, Panama and Nicaragua. Nor is Europe immune to CCP power projection: witness the worries over Huawei, espionage, and the Piraeus port “gateway to Europe” scheme. Xi makes no bones about his aim to achieve global ascendancy, remake the international order in China’s image, and dominate emerging 21st-century technologies, such as artificial intelligence, advanced computing, information management and the weaponisation of space.

At the same time he spins a softer message, the sort of comforting narrative predatory imperial powers prefer. China is no threat, he says. Rather, we are your benevolent friends, partners for global prosperity.

Last week, marking Joe Biden’s “summit for democracy”, to which it was not invited, Beijing even claimed, absurdly, to be the only truly functional democracy and an example to others.

In a speech in July marking the party’s centenary, Xi offered a less reassuring insight into his combative ideas. Imperial might is right, he suggested. Where Britannia once bobbed about, now China rules the waves.

“We have never bullied, oppressed, or subjugated the people of any other country, and we never will. By the same token we will never allow anyone to bully, oppress or subjugate [China],” he said. “Anyone who tries will find themselves on a collision course with a steel wall forged by 1.4 billion people.”

By key measures – the number of overseas bases, alliances, military strike-power – America still greatly outstrips China’s regime; likewise in terms of respect for human values and rights. Xi’s BRI ambitions are meeting increased pushback. But too often, the west appears unsure how to handle China’s challenge. The partial Olympics boycott smacks of weakness.

After two centuries on imperialism’s receiving end, the Chinese empire strikes back. Trouble is, Xi’s vision of future global dominion is centrally controlled, collectively oppressive, individually crushing totalitarianism. He promises only misery for the masses.
 
Because Putin's vision is to regain Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Moldova, Romania and more. And prove that Western democracy is a failure, the USA is a failure, and his method of authoritarian leadership is what the world needs.

Vietnam and Korea were thought at the time to be WW3 when people believed in the domino theory.

And you call other people conspiracy theorists? Regaining Finland? You're out of your mind.
 
I think he's got - and the wider Russian political class have got - a vision of 'historic Russia' both in terms of geography and in terms of political influence, and that it doesn't stop at Ukraine.

I think the evidence for WW3 having already started is convincing, but I accept that others take the view that so far what we've seen is 'just' the friction of strategic competition, and I can see the validity of that view.

I think it’s possible that this war, if it goes badly enough, may well prevent whatever it is that might have come next after Ukraine from happening, the vision might have to retreat in the face of practicalities.
Or of course it going badly might mean he chooses blaze of glory ww3 instead of having to accept that Russia’s a middling sort of power with a hobbled economy & a diminished army.
 
Because Putin's vision is to regain Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Moldova, Romania and more. And prove that Western democracy is a failure, the USA is a failure, and his method of authoritarian leadership is what the world needs.

Vietnam and Korea were thought at the time to be WW3 when people believed in the domino theory.
At the end of the second world war the Russians kept a chunk of Finland. If they'd wanted it I'm sure they could have kept it all

We've been saying here for a while that the us is failing - have you had a look at its domestic politics recently?
 
So if it's not empire-building, what is it?
Something else :D Not really the thread for a long derail, but in short an attempt to secure resources and interests, e.g. that base on horn of Africa mainly to protect shipping from piracy.
You could envision a future point where those interests encourage further incursions and power projection but we're still a way off that yet and the signs would be apparent first in near abroad like Tajikstan first imo.
Was reading something about the African adventures a while back that discussed the adaptations and accomodations with local elites which again are not really imperialist manoeuvres.
Which is not to say it's an exercise in benign win win fair trade either, of course.
 
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