Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kebabking]

And in more 'honestly boys - dead easy, 20 minutes in and out. Quick adventure and then back for beers...' news from the cranks, but important Putin supporters' on Russian TV....



It does rather chime with the idea that Ukraine is just one part of a wider objective - and that if Ukraine turns to shit, just bin it and go to the next one. I'm sure that invading 2 NATO countries - 3 really, because they'll want to go through Estonia to get to Lithuania - will be easier than invading Ukraine.....

 

[brogdale]

And in more 'honestly boys - dead easy, 20 minutes in and out. Quick adventure and then back for beers...' news from the cranks, but important Putin supporters' on Russian TV....



It does rather chime with the idea that Ukraine is just one part of a wider objective - and that if Ukraine turns to shit, just bin it and go to the next one. I'm sure that invading 2 NATO countries - 3 really, because they'll want to go through Estonia to get to Lithuania - will be easier than invading Ukraine.....

Sounds as though it could be just more state sponsored mis-information flinging, in the 'union negotiator' style of pitching massively above what you're after in the belief that the opposition will be more sanguine about capitulating on your intended goal?

 

[kebabking]

Sounds as though it could be just more state sponsored mis-information flinging, in the 'union negotiator' style of pitching massively above what you're after in the belief that the opposition will be more sanguine about capitulating on your intended goal?

Oh absolutely - could be just domestic morale boosting, it could be paving the way for 'escalate to de-escalate' could just be blokes on crack talking shit....

 

[cupid_stunt]

blokes on crack talking shit....

GB News style.

 

[dilute micro]

Russia doesn't have it.

 

[bimble]

This kind of very public bragging about exactly what UK is doing to help Ukrainians shoot Russians out of the sky is weird. Don’t know if it’s for a domestic market or what?

British Starstreak weapon that can tear a MiG apart

Russian pilots will think twice about getting into their planes after British soldiers have trained Ukrainians to fire Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, the Br

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[Spymaster]

Oh absolutely - could be just domestic morale boosting, it could be paving the way for 'escalate to de-escalate' could just be blokes on crack talking shit....

Looking at stuff like this makes you wonder if the Russian people are actually falling for it or if these people are regarded as clowns internally too. The state control of the media can't be absolute. Anyone who wants to get outside information and has an internet connection probably can, so you have question how successful the Russian state propaganda actually is.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This kind of very public bragging about exactly what UK is doing to help Ukrainians shoot Russians out of the sky is weird. Don’t know if it’s for a domestic market or what?

British Starstreak weapon that can tear a MiG apart

Russian pilots will think twice about getting into their planes after British soldiers have trained Ukrainians to fire Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, the Br

www.thetimes.co.uk

Or to scare the Russians?

Paywall busted link - archive.ph

 

[bimble]

Looking at stuff like this makes you wonder if the Russian people are actually falling for it or if these people are regarded as clowns internally too. The state control of the media can't be absolute. Anyone who wants to get outside information and has an internet connection probably can, so you have question how successful the Russian state propaganda actually is.

Russian government spokesman yesterday said that 25% of Russians are against the war. Which I think was a really surprising thing for him to say, it’s a high number, and how would they know anyway.

Shit link sorry:

Defense World

View News at Defense World

www.defenseworld.net

 

[bimble]

Or to scare the Russians?

Paywall busted link - archive.ph

Yeah that’s the tone of voice of it but it’s not likely the soldiers are just going to refuse to fly.

 

[_Russ_]

Looking at stuff like this makes you wonder if the Russian people are actually falling for it or if these people are regarded as clowns internally too. The state control of the media can't be absolute. Anyone who wants to get outside information and has an internet connection probably can, so you have question how successful the Russian state propaganda actually is.

Thing is even if you can access outside media its all just western propaganda and Lies innit.
Facts are easily bypassed by the indoctrinated

 

[cupid_stunt]

Looking at stuff like this makes you wonder if the Russian people are actually falling for it or if these people are regarded as clowns internally too. The state control of the media can't be absolute. Anyone who wants to get outside information and has an internet connection probably can, so you have question how successful the Russian state propaganda actually is.

Judging by interviews with Ukrainians who have Russian relatives that will just not believe what they are saying, but instead quote back what they are being told by Russian media, certainly some are falling for it, but what percentage is impossible to know.

I find those interviews hard reading, fancy just dismissing what your family members are experiencing.

 

[frogwoman]

Russian soldier murdered man and raped his wife, top Ukrainian prosecutor claims

Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova claimed that a Russian soldier was identified after killing a man and raping his wife amid allegations of abuse by Putin's forces

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[existentialist]

It's all gone quite quiet on the rasputitsa front - is rasputitsa season now properly underway, and is that having an effect on Russian movements?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Thing is even if you can access outside media its all just western propaganda and Lies innit.
Facts are easily bypassed by the indoctrinated

See covid deniers & anti-vaxxers.

 

[existentialist]

Looking at stuff like this makes you wonder if the Russian people are actually falling for it or if these people are regarded as clowns internally too. The state control of the media can't be absolute. Anyone who wants to get outside information and has an internet connection probably can, so you have question how successful the Russian state propaganda actually is.

I think the real question is whether enough of the Russian people are falling for it...and perhaps how much those who aren't are able to say so. That seems to be what Putin's relying on.

 

[Spymaster]

This kind of very public bragging about exactly what UK is doing to help Ukrainians shoot Russians out of the sky is weird. Don’t know if it’s for a domestic market or what?

British Starstreak weapon that can tear a MiG apart

Russian pilots will think twice about getting into their planes after British soldiers have trained Ukrainians to fire Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, the Br

www.thetimes.co.uk

To let the Russians know what's coming probably, and to bolster the Ukranians. This is another low-level weapon though whilst they really need something to take out high level aircraft and cruise missiles.

How does the shooter guide the warhead onto the target kebabking ? Is it like a video game where it's done on a screen within the unit?

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's all gone quite quiet on the rasputitsa front - is rasputitsa season now properly underway, and is that having an effect on Russian movements?

Well that happens mainly in the north of the country, where the Russians are stalled, what part rasputitsa season is playing in the lack of movement is anyone's guess.

 

[bimble]

I think the real question is whether enough of the Russian people are falling for it...and perhaps how much those who aren't are able to say so. That seems to be what Putin's relying on.

Yeah it’s the second thing, it does not matter what people really think as long as they are frightened into submission and either shut up about it or leave the country.

 

[existentialist]

Yeah that’s the tone of voice of it but it’s not likely the soldiers are just going to refuse to fly.

There does seem to be some evidence of desertion amongst ground troops at least - and military grapevines are a lot more proof against denial and propaganda, especially if troops are seeing evidence of problems with their own eyes (or stomachs). That kind of attrition of morale is bound to have some effect, even if it is by no means universal.

 

[HAL9000]

Laser beam painted on target

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky showed a brief clip of the Russian Foreign Minster, the presenter said, 'if you are playing Ukrainian bingo, you would have got a few hits there - neo-Nazis, cancel counter, invasion of Donbass, the west good at playing with words - typically foolish words from the minister'.

ETA - from the Guardian live updates.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has been speaking at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. It has been a basic re-stating of Russia’s case for war, saying that the West considers the invasion to have started on 24 February because they discount all the things that happened before then, and sprinkled with references to neo-Nazis and “cancel culture” and the West “playing with words”.

 

[_Russ_]

Everyone has already lost. Never mind all the dead and wounded, what's already happened is an environmental catastrophe. Not just the breaking of links among climate scientists at a time when both poles are 30+ degrees above normal. Not just the doubling down on fossil fuels which will travel to Europe from all over the place. But also all the shit that should be in buildings that's been released, all the asbestos and fuck knows what released by their destruction. And loads of other shit too.

Kyiv mayor asks city residents to wear masks due to pollution

The mayor of Kyiv said Monday that he is asking the city's residents to wear masks for fear of toxic

www.fourals.com

Re: your mention (in another post I cant find) of the world perhaps being close to the tipping point where Global warming runs away, I'm not sure either but tend to think is been passed.
I'm absolutely certain though that even if its not gone past that point it will...the world has absolutely no intention of sticking to its word on reducing emissions and even if we did it wouldnt be enough, we either have or shortly will have fucked it

 

[dilute micro]

We know, or ought to know, we're not in possession of all the facts, and in the blaring of all the individual tales of horror and all the punditry there are things we're not being told and claims being made which will turn out to be untrue or of marginal importance rather than the great weight attached to them now. We are given the impression we know what's going on when when the dust settles a different picture - how different isn't clear - will emerge. We are being told, for example, rather less of Ukrainian failures or russian successes than we might.

And we certainly know far less of what's going on in the corridors of power in Russia than we might.

The news today about rumblings in the Balkans ought to give people pause for thought, as that neglected corner of Europe may come to dominate our attention again: and open a second front in a conflict we thought just within Ukraine. I think the notion that putin-gollum will be out of the way soon owes more to hope than actual analysis. If Johnson or macron or biden presided over a campaign of brutality and attrition as Putin is then yeh they'd be out. But Russia is not France or Britain or the USA and - to look back to 1905 - Nicholas ii's disastrous war against Japan didn't do for the Romanovs. They lasted another 12 years. Maybe Putin won't last that long. But I wouldn't be surprised if in a year, two, five, he was still with us.

There are things in warfare that are fundamental and universal for any fighting force such as logistics, working together and such, the tenets taught in schools of warfare. It was these things that early on caused people to claim the Russian effort was not going according to plan. Even though they weren't in on the details of that plan they knew that making a mockery of a modern military campaign wasn't it. There are things that we do know. However, the internal things having to do with his suits or the FSB is another matter and maybe that's more of what you're talking about and not the field. Yeah, who knows. I think the analogy from someone on here I repeated yesterday about Putin Mt doom is correct. I do also think that Putin is, and was, looking much longer-term with Ukraine, meaning the benefits of having it are for future generations long after the people fighting for it are gone. It's clear he's dyed in the wool on wanting Ukraine, either the possession of it or at least control.

 

[bimble]

If true this intercepted call is incredible. Thread of translation but basically there is no plan and astonishingly The Russian Army doesn’t have any way of preventing or treating frostbite?

 

[Pickman's model]

There are things in warfare that are fundamental and universal for any fighting force such as logistics, working together and such, the tenets taught in schools of warfare. It was these things that early on caused people to claim the Russian effort was not going according to plan. Even though they weren't in on the details of that plan they knew that making a mockery of a modern military campaign wasn't it. There are things that we do know. However, the internal things having to do with his suits or the FSB is another matter and maybe that's more of what you're talking about and not the field. Yeah, who knows. I think the analogy from someone on here I repeated yesterday about Putin Mt doom is correct. I do also think that Putin is, and was, looking much longer-term with Ukraine, meaning the benefits of having it are for future generations long after the people fighting for it are gone. It's clear he's dyed in the wool on wanting Ukraine, either the possession of it or at least control.

There are in the mail today two stories, one about how everything is fucked for the Russians AGAIN, three days to it's all up for them, the other about how Ukraine are worried about running out of anti-tank and -aircraft missiles.

Why would Ukraine be worried about running out of weapons if the Russians will run out of everything first?

Throughout this campaign shortcomings on the Russian side have been bigged up. Yet they're still in the field. You don't explain how their demise can be predicted so many times yet they're still there. Obviously they're doing something right with the sinews of war and moving some materiel and supplies to the right places or the fucking thing would have collapsed by now. It should be plain that we're not hearing everything and so blathering on as you do here about how vital logistics are is useless as it advances the debate not a jot. Going back to mount Doom, where were putin-frodo's logistics there? Who do you think will swoop down and save him?

 

[emanymton]

Judging by interviews with Ukrainians who have Russian relatives that will just not believe what they are saying, but instead quote back what they are being told by Russian media, certainly some are falling for it, but what percentage is impossible to know.

I find those interviews hard reading, fancy just dismissing what your family members are experiencing.

While those stories are hard reading, it is worth remembering we don't really know how common it is. We are not likely to hear of the cases we're people phone their relatives in Russia and don't have those reactions as that is not going to get reported.

 

[cupid_stunt]

While those stories are hard reading, it is worth remembering we don't really know how common it is. We are not likely to hear of the cases we're people phone their relatives in Russia and don't have those reactions as that is not going to get reported.

Indeed, that's why I said - " certainly some are falling for it, but what percentage is impossible to know."

 

[bimble]

Ukraine saying that they’ll run out of their current stock of weapons within two weeks unless more is sent and the Russian army having a completely shit time of it are not contradictory at all.

 

[dilute micro]

There are in the mail today two stories, one about how everything is fucked for the Russians AGAIN, three days to it's all up for them, the other about how Ukraine are worried about running out of anti-tank and -aircraft missiles.

Why would Ukraine be worried about running out of weapons if the Russians will run out of everything first?

Throughout this campaign shortcomings on the Russian side have been bigged up. Yet they're still in the field. You don't explain how their demise can be predicted so many times yet they're still there. Obviously they're doing something right with the sinews of war and moving some materiel and supplies to the right places or the fucking thing would have collapsed by now. It should be plain that we're not hearing everything and so blathering on as you do here about how vital logistics are is useless as it advances the debate not a jot. Going back to mount Doom, where were putin-frodo's logistics there? Who do you think will swoop down and save him?

It's about understanding things in their measure. The military commanders who said things aren't going well for Russia aren't stupid or mistaken. To say the Russians failed in their planning, for instance to supply fuel and ammo for "just in case the Ukrainians don't fold" doesn't mean that the Russians can't resupply to make up for it. Still, according to sound strategy, it was a failure. The public want conclusion type answers but that's not how things actually are.