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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

I'm not sure about that. What replacement will more efficiently waste away the military or more efficiently accrue sanctions? The road Russia is going down is self-defeating devastation. It's Putin holding onto his precious while falling into the fires of Mt Doom. Who's going to want to do that?

More likely would be a messy interregnum with some Georgy Malenkov type patsy in charge while the oligarchs all murder each other in the background. After which a new strongman emerges, promising to sweep away the corruption and incompetence that got him where he is and doing the exact opposite.
 
If his generals finally get their nerve together and shoot the vile dirtbag then let's face it he isn't going to be replaced with someone burning with a desire to bring democracy and freedom to the people of Russia, it is going to be another lesser dirtbag that will replace him.
It should at least give whoever it is an easy out from an unwinnable war by declaring it was all the fault of Mad Vlad and promptly pulling Russian troops out of Ukraine ending the whole fighting and killing thing which has got to be top priority.
The West needs to keep the sanctions pressure up at this point to a) get justice and compensation for Ukraine, b) ensure that as many as possible face a war crimes trial and c) reforms in Russia to maybe give them a better government as well.
I hope the West doesn't turn round and say "Look Putin's gone, it's all good now and we can immediately go back to how things were before all this unpleasantness started"
We cannot afford this war. Not simply on the devastation on the ground or the vicious bloody murder being inflicted on Ukraine: there are other effects which demand attention, and which sanctions and the desire to support Ukraine on the one hand and make Russia a pariah on the other make worse.

There have been several expeditions in recent years in the Arctic, exploring the effects of climate change there. Underneath the ocean up there are vast quantities of methane hydrates, frozen on the bottom of the sea. The severing of ties with russian academics - who it seems are pretty much all against the war - means information vital to working out the danger of a giant fart emanating from the Arctic isn't being gathered,and may not be for some years. And gases emanating from the permafrost of Siberia, too, need observation. The wrecking of scientific ties may at the moment pale into insignificance beside the deaths of thousands and potential destabilisation of Europe. But as soon as possible these links need to be restored so we can get a better picture of the climate catastrophe that threatens us all.

Keeping the sanctions regime in place is, I fear, going to take time to work,if they in fact do, and it's time we simply don't have if the natural emissions are to be measured and factored into calculations. I've long feared it may already be too late, that the tipping points may have been breached. I hope I'm wrong. Yet the damage wrought by this fucking stupid war won't soon be put right. We can't afford this war and we can't afford a peace which continues division.
 
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🥺 harrowing.

Poor babies...dead on the floor. They hardly got a few day's of life

🥺
Just an awful read, a straightforward and simple account of why war really is hell. :(

As an aside, they were under fire or even got hit with shrapnel several times. In the kind of macho war reporting that often wins prizes that would have been told as a piece of self promotional bravery. So much more affecting to be simply told as it was.
 
More likely would be a messy interregnum with some Georgy Malenkov type patsy in charge while the oligarchs all murder each other in the background. After which a new strongman emerges, promising to sweep away the corruption and incompetence that got him where he is and doing the exact opposite.
A brief honeymoon period then ensues, when the new strongmen is briefly the blue-eyed boy of the western media - "trust me bro, this time it's different bro, General Massmurderov is a pragmatic reformer, bro".

Thus, the cosmic ballet continues.
 
This sounds legit, especially when considered in conjunction with what we have already heard about people being rounded-up & sent to Russia.

Russia plans kidnapping and violence in ‘great terror’ to end Kherson protests (Times report, paywall busted).
steeplejack mentioned the first three of those letters up thread - this US racecar driver guy Igor Shushko has been posting English translations on twitter. He's saying they've now been verified by former/current FSB people.

This is his translation of letter #11:



He still hadn't managed to translate 8 - 10 as of writing. Here's a link to the first seven of the letters (a thread of threads, as it were):

 
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I wouldn't rule out a total Russian collapse at some point in the next week or two, which would probably make things a good deal more dangerous.

Maxim guns are rather sub-optimal. I saw some Ukrainians firing a captured version a couple of days ago and thought - wow, that's some ingenious propaganda - they've found an old maxim gun in some museum storage somewhere and are using it so smear the Russians as troglodytic amateurs. But, here we are, it seems like the Russians really are banking on WW1 tech to move the dial in Ukraine.
 
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steeplejack mentioned the first three of those letters up thread - this US racecar driver guy Igor Shushko has been posting English translations on twitter. He's saying they've now been verified by former/current FSB people.

This is his translation of letter #11:



He still hadn't managed to translate 8 - 10 as of writing. Here's a link to the first seven of the letters (a thread of threads, as it were):


Reminds me of those people who’d been contacted with secret messages from aliens on unknown planets in the 1960s
 
We cannot afford this war. Not simply on the devastation on the ground or the vicious bloody murder being inflicted on Ukraine: there are other effects which demand attention, and which sanctions and the desire to support Ukraine on the one hand and make Russia a pariah on the other make worse.

There have been several expeditions in recent years in the Arctic, exploring the effects of climate change there. Underneath the ocean up there are vast quantities of methane hydrates, frozen on the bottom of the sea. The severing of ties with russian academics - who it seems are pretty much all against the war - means information vital to working out the danger of a giant fart emanating from the Arctic isn't being gathered,and may not be for some years. And gases emanating from the permafrost of Siberia, too, need observation. The wrecking of scientific ties may at the moment pale into insignificance beside the deaths of thousands and potential destabilisation of Europe. But as soon as possible these links need to be restored so we can get a better picture of the climate catastrophe that threatens us all.

We quite literally don't have time for this:

Earth’s poles are undergoing simultaneous freakish extreme heat with parts of Antarctica more than 70 degrees (40 degrees Celsius) warmer than average and areas of the Arctic more than 50 degrees (30 degrees Celsius) warmer than average.

Weather stations in Antarctica shattered records Friday as the region neared autumn. The two-mile high (3,234 meters) Concordia station was at 10 degrees (-12.2 degrees Celsius), which is about 70 degrees warmer than average, while the even higher Vostok station hit a shade above 0 degrees (-17.7 degrees Celsius), beating its all-time record by about 27 degrees (15 degrees Celsius), according to a tweet from extreme weather record tracker Maximiliano Herrera.

The coastal Terra Nova Base was far above freezing at 44.6 degrees (7 degrees Celsius).

It caught officials at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, by surprise because they were paying attention to the Arctic where it was 50 degrees warmer than average and areas around the North Pole were nearing or at the melting point, which is really unusual for mid-March, said center ice scientist Walt Meier.

“They are opposite seasons. You don’t see the north and the south (poles) both melting at the same time,” Meier told The Associated Press Friday evening. “It’s definitely an unusual occurrence.”

“It’s pretty stunning,” Meier added.

“Wow. I have never seen anything like this in the Antarctic,” said University of Colorado ice scientist Ted Scambos, who returned recently from an expedition to the continent.

“Not a good sign when you see that sort of thing happen,” said University of Wisconsin meteorologist Matthew Lazzara.

Lazzara monitors temperatures at East Antarctica’s Dome C-ii and logged 14 degrees (-10 degrees Celsius) Friday, where the normal is -45 degrees (-43 degrees Celsius): “That’s a temperature that you should see in January, not March. January is summer there. That’s dramatic.”


This is just a one-day extreme, but shows us a worrying trend that we should be paying attention to.
 
steeplejack mentioned the first three of those letters up thread - this US racecar driver guy Igor Shushko has been posting English translations on twitter. He's saying they've now been verified by former/current FSB people.

This is his translation of letter #11:



He still hadn't managed to translate 8 - 10 as of writing. Here's a link to the first seven of the letters (a thread of threads, as it were):



To be fair many now claiming his stuff is fiction / bullshit. The first couple of letters seemed credible but as these ‘letters’ have been released they become ever more fantastical.

File under entertaining horseshit, sadly.

E2A:
 

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To be fair many now claiming his stuff is fiction / bullshit. The first couple of letters seemed credible but as these ‘letters’ have been released they become ever more fantastical.

File under entertaining horseshit, sadly.

E2A:
Reminds me of those people who’d been contacted with secret messages from aliens on unknown planets in the 1960s
Shit. Wish I'd have posted it in the speculation thread now. I did wonder if I should. Sorry.
 
We know, or ought to know, we're not in possession of all the facts, and in the blaring of all the individual tales of horror and all the punditry there are things we're not being told and claims being made which will turn out to be untrue or of marginal importance rather than the great weight attached to them now. We are given the impression we know what's going on when when the dust settles a different picture - how different isn't clear - will emerge. We are being told, for example, rather less of Ukrainian failures or russian successes than we might.

And we certainly know far less of what's going on in the corridors of power in Russia than we might.

The news today about rumblings in the Balkans ought to give people pause for thought, as that neglected corner of Europe may come to dominate our attention again: and open a second front in a conflict we thought just within Ukraine. I think the notion that putin-gollum will be out of the way soon owes more to hope than actual analysis. If Johnson or macron or biden presided over a campaign of brutality and attrition as Putin is then yeh they'd be out. But Russia is not France or Britain or the USA and - to look back to 1905 - Nicholas ii's disastrous war against Japan didn't do for the Romanovs. They lasted another 12 years. Maybe Putin won't last that long. But I wouldn't be surprised if in a year, two, five, he was still with us.
Absolutely. This idea that he's got no plan elsewhere and his plan is shortsighted is frankly just propaganda. He might not reach his narcissistic end game but we've a bit more to see of him before this is out especially whilst he's prepared to play his big red button joker card.
 
Had this ping up on my Civil Service Jobs alert today. Six posts...

I wonder why DSTL are searching just now?

Weapons Reverse Engineering – Scientists, Engineers and Mathematicians​

Defence Science and Technology Laboratory

Apply before 11:55 pm on Thursday 28th April 2022

Reference number​

194867

Salary​

£25,052 - £54,683
Dstl Level 4 £25,052 - £36,214: Dstl Level 5 £32,626 - £44,719: Dstl Level 6 £40,514 - £54,683: Specific salary is dependent on skills, experience and knowledge demonstrated.

Grade​

Higher Executive Officer
Senior Executive Officer
Grade 7
Dstl Levels 4, 5 & 6

Contract type​

Permanent

Business area​

DSTL - Platform Systems Division

Type of role​

Analytical
Engineering
Intelligence
Science

Working pattern​

Full-time, Job share

Number of posts​

6
 
Meanwhile on tv in Russia, they’ve got talking heads chatting shit about maybe nuking Europe and how sorting out other uppity neighbours would be much easier than the operation in Ukraine. It’s probably meant to rally the viewers & make them feel part of something powerful but it is hard to understand from here.

Those idiots come across like the Russian version of Fox news' "The Five"...
 
Hegel says somewhere that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.

tssh, tssh. Hegel noted that history tended to repeat itself, but, notoriously, he forgot to add, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce
 
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