Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[MrCurry]

Have the muddled Sweden with Norway here?

I’m assuming a hack has confused memories of hearing about Sweden & Finland in recent weeks in connection with NATO membership discussions and had heard Finland’s border with Russia mentioned in those stories. But that’s guesswork. It could equally be the Norway / Russia border which has confused them.

 

[David Clapson]

Something else Not really the thread for a long derail, but in short an attempt to secure resources and interests, e.g. that base on horn of Africa mainly to protect shipping from piracy.
You could envision a future point where those interests encourage further incursions and power projection but we're still a way off that yet and the signs would be apparent first in near abroad like Tajikstan first imo.
Was reading something about the African adventures a while back that discussed the adaptations and accomodations with local elites which again are not really imperialist manoeuvres.
Which is not to say it's an exercise in benign win win fair trade either, of course.

When their aircraft carriers are better and more numerous I expect to see a far more muscular exploitation of their foreign investments! But you're right, we should get back to Ukraine, even though Xi makes a fascinating reference point for Putin discussions. Much as I detest Xi, I'd have to concede that he's achieved more than any leader since FDR.

 

[Dystopiary]

Sky News knocks it out of the park with the quality of their research:

(Sweden is not in NATO and does not have a border with Russia) I assume the bit about sending more weapons is accurate, but based on the rest of their errors, we can’t be too confident!
View attachment 315590

Ffs. There's no excuse for that level of sloppiness.

 

[David Clapson]

I’m assuming a hack has confused memories of hearing about Sweden & Finland in recent weeks in connection with NATO membership discussions and had heard Finland’s border with Russia mentioned in those stories. But that’s guesswork. It could equally be the Norway / Russia border which has confused them.

Hacks are trying to report on a big, complex war which is being prosecuted 24/7. And the Ukraine stories are in addition to what was already a jam-packed news cycle with Covid, a dying planet, Trump/culture wars, and more. And very few hacks work for publications which can afford an adequate editorial staff. Being a journalist is a thankless task these days, unless you're the 1 in 10,000 who break through to the level of Fleet Street Editor or Big Name Columnist.

 

[bimble]

This is sobering: Romania has rushed to produce iodine pills, enough for everyone in the country, to try to mitigate the effects of radiation should it come to nuclear fallout next door, but they don't know when to tell doctors to give people the pills, if they do it too early it doesn't work. Grim.

Romania Is Handing Out 30 Million Anti-Radiation Pills Because of Russia

Worried that Russia will launch a nuclear strike, European countries with vivid memories of Chernobyl are preparing.

www.vice.com

 

[existentialist]

I think it’s possible that this war, if it goes badly enough, may well prevent whatever it is that might have come next after Ukraine from happening, the vision might have to retreat in the face of practicalities.
Or of course it going badly might mean he chooses blaze of glory ww3 instead of having to accept that Russia’s a middling sort of power with a hobbled economy & a diminished army.

Whatever the actual outcome, I really can't imagine Putin - or any other potential Russian leader - accepting that they're a "middling sort of power", etc. The itchy nuke finger might become a little too difficult to control in that situation, given that it'd be all they had left. And I bloody hope I'm as wrong as it is possible to be.

 

[bimble]

Whatever the actual outcome, I really can't imagine Putin - or any other potential Russian leader - accepting that they're a "middling sort of power", etc.

why not? Its slowly happening here i think, that acceptance of loss of empire, just takes time.

 

[dilute micro]

Accepting the loss of his army will be a good indicator.

 

[existentialist]

why not? Its slowly happening here i think, that acceptance of loss of empire, just takes time.

I don't think Putin is showing any signs of accepting that things are as they are. And he has been pretty relentless with the threats of escalation...

And I'm not sure it is happening here - Johnson doesn't seem too reluctant to wrap himself in a nice Second World War Union Jack, and a lot of the posturing around Brexit looks a lot like someone who thinks we should occupy our Empire position on the world stage.

 

[existentialist]

.

 

[bimble]

I don't think Putin is showing any signs of accepting that things are as they are. And he has been pretty relentless with the threats of escalation...

Yeah I was picking on your ‘or any other potential Russian leader’ bit.
I agree he isn’t likely to meekly accept humiliation if it’s a choice between that or red button.

 

[existentialist]

Yeah I was picking on your ‘or any other potential Russian leader’ bit.

Well, we can only hope. But a best-possible outcome is probably that whoever ends up putting a bullet in Putin's head will take over, and whoever that is will be unlikely to be big on peace and love.

 

[steveseagull]

This fucker has been confirmed as being taken down. Don't know if the last thing he was was a sniper bullet or a Bayraktar staring down at him. Either way he is beyond repair and unlikely to make any sort of comeback without someone who can raise the dead.

Decent sized hat mind.

 

[David Clapson]

And I'm not sure it is happening here - Johnson doesn't seem too reluctant to wrap himself in a nice Second World War Union Jack, and a lot of the posturing around Brexit looks a lot like someone who thinks we should occupy our Empire position on the world stage.

Johnson is hopelessly out of his depth. The other leaders know this. His brain dead Brexit comparison has given them an exuse not to even include him in discussions. Fortunately NATO is big enough to include lots of competent leaders who will choose the right strategy. If Johnson merely trails in their wake without trying to come up with his own plan, the UK will play its part well enough.

 

[SpookyFrank]

This fucker has been confirmed as being taken down. Don't know if the last thing he was was a sniper bullet or a Bayraktar staring down at him. Either way he is beyond repair and unlikely to make any sort of comeback without someone who can raise the dead.

Turned out nice again.

 

[emanymton]

Johnson is hopelessly out of his depth. The other leaders know this. His brain dead Brexit comparison has given them an exuse not to even include him in discussions. Fortunately NATO is big enough to include lots of competent leaders who will choose the right strategy. If Johnson merely trails in their wake without trying to come up with his own plan, the UK will play its part well enough.

I hope so.
It's an awful thing that we have had 2 huge world changing crises with this bunch of incompetent charlatans in charge.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Well, we can only hope. But a best-possible outcome is probably that whoever ends up putting a bullet in Putin's head will take over, and whoever that is will be unlikely to be big on peace and love.

He who wields the knife can never wear the crown. The gods won't abide it. It's why Starmer will never be prime minister.

 

[bimble]

I just read a totally unsubstantiated rumour that Shoigu (the mysteriously disappearing defence minister) is “under investigation for possible CIA links”. Which would maybe be great news ? Like that would mean Putin looking for a tidy way to explain the whole disaster and stop digging. Maybe.

 

[existentialist]

He who wields the knife can never wear the crown. The gods won't abide it. It's why Starmer will never be prime minister.

But he might get to decide who wears the crown...

 

[Sue]

I just read a totally unsubstantiated rumour that Shoigu (the mysteriously disappearing defence minister) is “under investigation for possible CIA links”. Which would maybe be great news ? Like that would mean Putin looking for a tidy way to explain the whole disaster and stop digging. Maybe.

Why would it be great news?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I just read a totally unsubstantiated rumour that Shoigu (the mysteriously disappearing defence minister) is “under investigation for possible CIA links”. Which would maybe be great news ? Like that would mean Putin looking for a tidy way to explain the whole disaster and stop digging. Maybe.

Oh, look there's a thread for that - Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

 

[bimble]

Why would it be great news?

Because it would mean putin looking to rescue himself from what he realises is an unwinnable war?

 

[planetgeli]

I just read a totally unsubstantiated rumour that Shoigu (the mysteriously disappearing defence minister) is “under investigation for possible CIA links”. Which would maybe be great news ? Like that would mean Putin looking for a tidy way to explain the whole disaster and stop digging. Maybe.

No

 

[bimble]

Oh, look there's a thread for that - Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

Yes. But the ‘heart problems’ explanation for his invisibility was fine ?

 

[Sue]

Because it would mean putin looking to rescue himself from what he realises is an unwinnable war?

Not sure how that follows

It could mean Putin feels he needs to make a strong gesture towards the US -- who knows?

 

[bimble]

Not sure how that follows

It could mean Putin feels he needs to make a strong gesture towards the US -- who knows?

Not me.

 

[Cid]

Xi appearing with Putin just before the Winter Olympics for a joint statement against NATO expansion, and Russia then considerately waiting until the day after the Olympics had concluded wasn't exactly the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but I find it hard to believe that Xi (may he die a slow painful death) wasn't aware of what was going to happen and what message he was sending.

I think the problem here is that we're not even really sure what Putin conceived the war to be. Or perhaps more accurately how he justified it outside of his own head and immediate circle... Did he have a quiet word with Xi and say 'look, we're going to launch a special operation to restore the territorial integrity of the eastern Donbass and liberate its Russian speaking population, it should be over pretty quickly, but it will probably piss off NATO and we'll need to show some level of unity' or did he say 'yeah, we kind of want to annihilate Ukraine'. I'm not sure that makes a difference on whether Xi is a cunt or not (well, extra cunty or not), but I think it affects the interpretation of the current articulation of Chinese political philosophy.

May they both simmer in a vat of their own piss. Actually of each other's piss.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yes. But the ‘heart problems’ explanation for his invisibility was fine ?

No it wasn't.

But, at least you provided a link, rather stating 'I just read a totally unsubstantiated rumour .'

 

[existentialist]

No it wasn't.

They might be the kind of heart problems caused by a few grams of lead flying through at high speed

 

[Cid]

What do you think of the alleged risk of PRC taking Taiwan in the near future?

Not even going to pretend to have a grasp on that one...