Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

is UK and America etc sending weapons ? (not soldiers hardware)

Yes, and have been doing so for weeks.

 

[Spymaster]

Do think they'll be pretty limited and of course he gets the bonus of soaring oil prices due to his recklessness.

Soaring oil prices don’t help too much if you can only sell it to China and NK.

 

[JimW]

Expect all those helmets from Germany are getting donned too.

 

[kebabking]

is UK and America etc sending weapons ? (not soldiers hardware)

Yes, and have been doing so for years. There's been a NATO training mission in Ukraine since 2015.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Fucking hell, there's some incredible footage & photos on that thread.

This also came from there, it's longer footage of the traffic jams in Kyiv than the BBC & Sky are showing.



How sad, and very scary for those people.

Thousands and thousands of people running in fear, all because literally a few dozen men in expensive suits are playing games that make them feel important.

Someone remind me why we even have such ridiculous notions of borders and countries anyway? What’s the bloody point of them? We live for such a fleeting moment on this rock, why don’t we make the most of it?

 

[JimW]

Soaring oil prices don’t help too much if you can only sell it to China and NK.

You seriously reckon he's going to be left with unsold stock?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Disagree that the effects will be that limited. I think there’ll be some serious hits going in now. Let’s see what happens today.

There is clearly a plan to hold off on some of bigger hits so they can be put in place once Putin went for it, but like Pickmans I seriously doubt the effectiveness. Sure, there will be some potential initial hits on money but China sits in the background acting as the (dis) honest impartial broker keen to recognise ‘self determination’

 

[Spymaster]

You seriously reckon he's going to be left with unsold stock?

Long term I think there’s definitely potential for it. It’s impossible to see what’ll happen over the next days, let alone years, but I don’t think a global trade embargo (excepting China, NK, and a few others) is an impossibility. The issue will be how well the rest of the world is able to replace the output from the embargoed states, as ever with sanctions.

 

[Spymaster]

There is clearly a plan to hold off on some of bigger hits so they can be put in place once Putin went for it, but like Pickmans I seriously doubt the effectiveness. Sure, there will be some potential initial hits on money but China sits in the background acting as the (dis) honest impartial broker keen to recognise ‘self determination’

China is anything but impartial at the moment. A foreign minister of theirs yesterday was saying that the are stronger than allies with Russia.

 

[JimW]

Long term I think there’s definitely potential for it. It’s impossible to see what’ll happen over the next days, let alone years, but I don’t think a global trade embargo (excepting China, NK, and a few others) is an impossibility. The issue will be how well the rest of the world is able to replace the output from the embargoed states, as ever with sanctions.

Yeah, not pretending to know, it's just my impression is any sort of moral stance goes out the window where energy markets are concerned, seem to recall various sanction busting efforts in the past e.g. continued purchases from Iran.

 

[MickiQ]

I literally woke up to it this morning, the radio cam on with the words 'Russia has launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine'
I expect Boris to give a waffly and indecisive speech later whilst trying to dodge any difficult questions.

 

[kebabking]

Imagine writing your children's blood group on their coats...

 

[og ogilby]

Russian stock market down 45%.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Fuck! I didn't think he'd go all out like this. I thought he'd gradually move across Ukraine step by step. He's obviously calculated that no one's gonna stop him and he's right, there's a sense of powerlessness seeing it unfold.

How utterly depressing. All the Brexit bollocks, trump, Johnson getting a huge majority, division all across society, a two year plague that's not exactly over and now a war in Eastern Europe launched by an aggressive macho murdering fuck wit.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Fuck! I didn't think he'd go all out like this. I thought he'd gradually move across Ukraine step by step. He's obviously calculated that no one's gonna stop him and he's right, there's a sense of powerlessness seeing it unfold.

How utterly depressing. All the Brexit bollocks, trump, Johnson getting a huge majority, division all across society, a two year plague that's not exactly over and now a war in Eastern Europe launched by an aggressive macho murdering fuck wit.

Yeah, we definitely seem to be at the lower end of a seemingly eternally ongoing cycle of stupid.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Fuck! I didn't think he'd go all out like this. I thought he'd gradually move across Ukraine step by step. He's obviously calculated that no one's gonna stop him and he's right, there's a sense of powerlessness seeing it unfold.

I was in two minds as to if he would go in piece by piece, or full on, but because of the positioning of the troops, I thought the odds were it would be like this.

 

[MickiQ]

Imagine writing your children's blood group on their coats...

That's pretty grim

 

[skyscraper101]

Putin has always looked shifty to me but he's gone full conspiracy loon now. It'll be interesting to see to what degree Beijing go along with it.

 

[JimW]

Lithuania declared a state of emergency

 

[Hollis]

I was in two minds as to if he would go in piece by piece, or full on, but because of the positioning of the troops, I thought the odds were it would be like this.

I don't think it can work like that these days.. the moment you go for a 'hot' war - you have to take out command and control - so strikes on air bases/command centres where ever they are.

I read somewhere - Russia don't have the same amount of ordinance for this stage - so land strike is likely to start sooner rather than later.

Btw: Another twitter account I'd recommend for general strategic opinion is:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien

 

[cupid_stunt]

Lithuania declared a state of emergency

That seems odd, I know they border Belarus, but there's been no reports of Russian troops on that border.

 

[strung out]

That seems odd, I know they border Belarus, but there's been no reports of Russian troops on that border.

They border Russia as well, and as NATO members, probably feel a bit twitchy.

 

[Spymaster]

Putin has always looked shifty to me …

Eyes too close together.

 

[dilute micro]

 

[JimW]

That seems odd, I know they border Belarus, but there's been no reports of Russian troops on that border.

Read it on that Meduza site linking to a Telegram post in Russian. My sources are peccable

 

[cupid_stunt]

They border Russia as well, and as NATO members, probably feel a bit twitchy.

What? Have they moved it?

 

[JimW]

What? Have they moved it?

View attachment 311644

That Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave, isn't it?

 

[Rimbaud]

What? Have they moved it?

View attachment 311644

Kaliningrad is Russia

 

[Ax^]

Why spunk trillions from your shitey economy in an invasion when you can keep the pressue up by not invading ?

there isn’t any sense in that. He needs a semi compliant or craven buffer state. There will not be a full on invasion.

£10 to the server fund if there is one.

morning

 

[strung out]

What? Have they moved it?

View attachment 311644

That's a western border with Russia.