Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[JimW]

Latest Chinese statement as well as vacillating about "complex factors" does specifically reiterate "consistent support for national sovereignty and territorial integrity" but tenor of news reports gives undue credence to Russian claims. Tacit complicty rather than open support.

 

[Rob Ray]

If recent history has shown anything it's that invasion is (relatively) easy against a lesser opponent, occupation is not. So maybe forced "liberation" of the target and clear show of total military dominance followed by a clean exit?

 

[cupid_stunt]

According to Sky, Russia is claiming to have taken out the tiny Ukrainian air force, and roads are busy heading west, as local try to escape the attacks.

It all started to kick off, whilst a UN emergency security briefing was happening.

Vladimir Putin delivered his speech while an emergency session of the UN security council was underway. It will go down as one of the most surreal sessions the chamber has ever witnessed, as the very war it was supposed to prevent, broke out while it was sitting.

The secretary general, Antonio Guterres, was the first to speak, and at that time, Putin’s intentions were not entirely clear. But Guterres pointed to the reports of troops moving into position, and did something notable and rare for a UN secretary general: he publicly called out the head of a security council permanent member.

“If indeed an operation is being prepared, I have only one thing to say, from the bottom of my heart,” Guterres said. “President Putin - stop your troops from attacking Ukraine. Give peace a chance. Too many people have already died.”

By the time it was time for the Russian permanent representative, Vasily Nebenzya, to speak, Putin had given his address, and there was no more mystery. Peace was not to be given a chance, after all. Nebenzya, who had spent weeks deriding western states for their “hysterical” warnings of impending invasion, pivoted to argue it was not actually a war that was getting underway, but a “special military operation” to protect the people of the Donbas.

Oh, that's OK then.

Russia invades Ukraine and advances on Kyiv – as it happened

US secretary of state says Russia plans widespread human rights abuses; Ukrainian spokesman condemns ‘totally pointless attack’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Rimbaud]

Oh fuck

 

[kabbes]

So how will this go, I wonder? Protracted messy war or Ukraine realising the inevitability of the outcome and choosing to effectively acquiesce to allow those two republics to go to Russia, in order to reduce the bloodshed and cost? Will outside allies come to Ukraine’s aid and fight alongside them? Seems very unlikely as surely no one wants to choose a war with Russia?

Or maybe I’m misreading it and Ukraine do have enough military strength to repel the invaders? Hard to see how such a long planned operation would be launched by Russia if they hadn’t ensured they would succeed though.

So much death. What can men do against such reckless hate?

 

[bimble]

It’s already impossible to know what’s true, and that’s going to be one front in the war isn’t it.
Eg.

 

[kabbes]

It’s already impossible to know what’s true, and that’s going to be one front in the war isn’t it.
Eg.

The first casualty of war is some poor sod of a soldier who was standing in the wrong place at the wrong time. The second casualty is war is a civilian caught in the cross fire. Ah, but the third casualty of war? Actually, that’s another civilian. I’m sure we get to “truth” eventually though

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

sigh

The world gets stupider and stupider by the day. Rich men playing chess with peoples lives so they can be the momentary masters of a scrap of dirt.

 

[Badgers]

Belarus getting involved

 

[tim]

Ukraine request urgent meeting of the Un security council, not sure what much more they can do atm?

Nothing as Russia has a Veto.

 

[Pickman's model]

It’s already impossible to know what’s true, and that’s going to be one front in the war isn’t it.
Eg.

The first casualty of war etc

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Wow, I didn't think the fucking madman would actually go through with it.

Why not? He knows no one is going to do a damn thing about it. Freeze a few assets, cancel a couple of poxy visas…quaking in his boots.

 

[Spymaster]

Latest Chinese statement as well as vacillating about "complex factors" does specifically reiterate "consistent support for national sovereignty and territorial integrity" but tenor of news reports gives undue credence to Russian claims. Tacit complicty rather than open support.

Now would be a great time for China to make a move on Taiwan.

Is there any feeling that might happen?

 

[JimW]

Now would be a great time for China to make a move on Taiwan.

Is there any feeling that might happen?

None whatsoever in terms of domestic mood and shift of rhetoric; the build up to that would be obvious to all the watchers too given what sort of assault it would take and not heard of anything along those lines. If this proves pretty much cost free for Putin though obviously that'll be duly noted by the hawks.

 

[TopCat]

Now would be a great time for China to make a move on Taiwan.

Is there any feeling that might happen?

No.

 

[Mezzer]

Rather clear now that Belarus was never going to be allowed to have a democratically elected president.

 

[agricola]

If Odessa actually has been invaded this is the full-scale deal aiming at a major (punitive) defeat of the Ukrainian army and government, no salami slicing. Take the territory he can hold, humiliate NATO, demonstrate to other states in Russia's historic sphere of influence what happens if you flip.

Minor tangent: Long term this pretty much secures the formation of an EU army.

Not sure about humiliating NATO, if anything I’d have thought countries on the periphery who who have the chance to and who’ve deepened and formalised their ties to it since the end of the Cold War (Sweden and Finland especially) will probably join now.

If the alternative is getting invaded anyway, on nonsensical pretexts like once being part of Russia, there isn’t much of a reason not to. I wouldn’t be that surprised if they announced it today, TBF.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky showing footage of one of the main routes going out west from Kyiv, it's gridlocked.

 

[tommers]

Fuck. Why are we still doing this shit? We're such a bunch of stupid fucking apes.

 

[frogwoman]

Has Kyiv been attacked?

I've just woken up. Me and my dad saw went in 2010. It's a great city

 

[tommers]

Has Kyiv been attacked?

I've just woken up. Me and my dad saw went in 2010. It's a great city

Yes.

 

[bimble]

Best wishes

 

[tommers]

Best wishes
View attachment 311637

Thoughts and prayers.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not sure about humiliating NATO, if anything I’d have thought countries on the periphery who who have the chance to and who’ve deepened and formalised their ties to it since the end of the Cold War (Sweden and Finland especially) will probably join now.

If the alternative is getting invaded anyway, on nonsensical pretexts like once being part of Russia, there isn’t much of a reason not to. I wouldn’t be that surprised if they announced it today, TBF.

There was a good article in the FT on this subject last month, with Russia threating an 'adequate response' if Sweden and Finland joins NATO.

I've just found it again, paywall busted link below.

Both Nordic countries, which gave up their traditional neutrality because of their membership of the EU and its mutual defence clause, have grown closer to Nato in recent years, allowing its troops to cross their territory in times of crisis or during exercises.

Russia has threatened a sharp response should Nato expand further by including the two countries around the Baltic Sea. The foreign ministry in Moscow said in December that Sweden and Finland joining Nato “would have serious military and political consequences that would require an adequate response from the Russian side”.

Ukraine crisis revives Nato debate in Finland and Sweden | Financial …

archived 12 Feb 2022 15:06:26 UTC

archive.ph

 

[JimW]

Has Ben Wallace parachuted in yet?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

All the wonder, joy, creativity and magnificence that humans are capable of, yet still we have people choosing this. It’s utterly depressing.

 

[frogwoman]

Fuck

 

[Artaxerxes]

Cunt

 

[frogwoman]

What's happening in Odesa? I spent a couple days there in 2010 too

I guess nothing good

 

[bimble]

Amazing. Fox News pro-putin rant has been translated and put on rt.