Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[agricola]

There was a good article in the FT on this subject last month, with Russia threating an 'adequate response' if Sweden and Finland joins NATO.

I've just found it again, paywall busted link below.

Ukraine crisis revives Nato debate in Finland and Sweden | Financial …

archived 12 Feb 2022 15:06:26 UTC

archive.ph

Indeed, and after them going into Ukraine this morning the big question for those two states is going to be whether they trust them to (as was the deal) leave them alone whilst NATO membership is still a question.

I am not sure why the conduct of the Russian government these past two months (and longer of course, but especially in this crisis) would give anyone a reason why another government would believe what they say. The moment a troop buildup, or an “exercise” or some other spontaneous memes started near the border they’d have to respond.

 

[cupid_stunt]

What's happening in Odesa? I spent a couple days there in 2010 too

I guess nothing good

TBH, early reports are all over the place ATM, no doubt we will get a better idea of exactly what's going on later today, and over the coming days.

 

[kabbes]

I agree, I can’t see why a border country to Russia would now not join NATO. What‘s Russia going to do, threaten to invade?

 

[bluescreen]

There was a good article in the FT on this subject last month, with Russia threating an 'adequate response' if Sweden and Finland joins NATO.

I've just found it again, paywall busted link below.

Ukraine crisis revives Nato debate in Finland and Sweden | Financial …

archived 12 Feb 2022 15:06:26 UTC

archive.ph

If they did join NATO then Russia would view it as a serious provocation requiring defensive response; if they don't join NATO then Russia holds the threat that it can deal with their 'aggression' the same way it's dealing with Ukrainian 'aggression'. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. ISTR that once upon a time before Denmark joined NATO a member of their coalition government proposed that their entire defence budget should be no more than spending on a recorded message saying 'we surrender'. Because minuscule casualties following early surrender in WWII -

Research Starters: Worldwide Deaths in World War II | The National WWII Museum | New Orleans

See estimates for worldwide deaths, broken down by country, in World War II.

www.nationalww2museum.org

 

[Spymaster]

Best wishes
View attachment 311637

There’s not really much else the rest of the world can do at the moment. The proper sanctions will be announced today and tomorrow and they’ll be big; Russia will annexe Ukraine until a favourable government is installed; NATO strengthen eastern member states but Vlad won’t attack them because they’ll have no option but to respond militarily (unlike now); China will help out Russia when the sanctions start to hit home; China ramp-up the situation with Taiwan; more sanctions on China; world orders challenged.

A very interesting next 10 years coming up.

 

[tim]

Rather clear now that Belarus was never going to be allowed to have a democratically elected president.

Was it ever not clear?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I can’t help thinking about the muppets in the the west that have been playing at being ‘oppressed & having their freedoms threatened’ because they temporarily had to wear a cloth on their face.

 

[kebabking]

If you're interested in the nuts and bolts of the invasion, follow this bloke.

Very reliable, switched on.

 

[Badgers]

How will the #ToryScum pay for their next election, press room, holidays, Brexit, wallpaper and other essential to a democracy?

 

[JimW]

Anyone know much about this lot? They seem to be an independent Russian/English language source and their feed reports stuff earlier than I see elsewhere: Invasion Following an announcement from Putin, Russia’s military begins attacks against targets inside Ukraine, and separatists launch an offensive in the Donbas — Meduza

 

[Spymaster]

If you're interested in the nuts and bolts of the invasion, follow this bloke.

Very reliable, switched on.

I’ve resisted for years but looks like I’ll finally have to sign up to Twitter.

 

[bimble]

There’s not really much else the rest of the world can do at the moment. The proper sanctions will be announced today and tomorrow and they’ll be big; Russia will annexe Ukraine until a favourable government is installed; NATO strengthen eastern member states but Vlad won’t attack them because they’ll have no option but to respond militarily (unlike now); China will help out Russia when the sanctions start to hit home; China ramp-up the situation with Taiwan; more sanctions on China; world orders challenged.

A very interesting next 10 years coming up.

What’s the point of big sanctions if everyone already accepts that putin will get the regime change he wants.

 

[Pickman's model]

Anyone know much about this lot? They seem to be an independent Russian/English language source and their feed reports stuff earlier than I see elsewhere: Invasion Following an announcement from Putin, Russia’s military begins attacks against targets inside Ukraine, and separatists launch an offensive in the Donbas — Meduza

I like the meduza: let's trade gifts bit

 

[Pickman's model]

I’ve resisted for years but looks like I’ll finally have to sign up to Twitter.

You'll be barred in hours

 

[JimW]

I like the meduza: let's trade gifts bit

Googling names gets a journo who seem to have an independent track record in Russia but has now relocated to Latvia at the top and the English names seem non-loon.

 

[Pickman's model]

What’s the point of big sanctions if everyone already accepts that putin will get the regime change he wants.

What's the point of big sanctions when he's spent years orienting the Russian economy so they're basically meaningless? Obvs the point is so biden and johnson and so on look like they're Doing Something

 

[JimW]

CIA front then, obviously.

 

[Pickman's model]

Googling names gets a journo who seem to have an independent track record in Russia but has now relocated to Latvia at the top and the English names seem non-loon.

I just liked it, didn't mean to cast nasturtiums

 

[Pickman's model]

How will the #ToryScum pay for their next election, press room, holidays, Brexit, wallpaper and other essential to a democracy?

Johnson is going through his children's rooms emptying their piggy banks

 

[JimW]

I just liked it, didn't mean to cast nasturtiums

Yes, I realised, was just continuing my half-arsed burbling until someone who might know comes along.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

There’s not really much else the rest of the world can do at the moment. The proper sanctions will be announced today and tomorrow and they’ll be big; Russia will annexe Ukraine until a favourable government is installed; NATO strengthen eastern member states but Vlad won’t attack them because they’ll have no option but to respond militarily (unlike now); China will help out Russia when the sanctions start to hit home; China ramp-up the situation with Taiwan; more sanctions on China; world orders challenged.

A very interesting next 10 years coming up.

That about covers it. But, you’ve missed the ‘analysis’ from sections of the left that will tacitly welcome this ‘challenge to the world order’ and the continuing and inexorable erosion of liberal democracy. The form, politics (and the even worse elements swirling in the periphery of those doing the challenging) will be glossed over or only brief mention given to its totalitarian, reactionary nature.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If you're interested in the nuts and bolts of the invasion, follow this bloke.

Very reliable, switched on.

Fucking hell, there's some incredible footage & photos on that thread.

This also came from there, it's longer footage of the traffic jams in Kyiv than the BBC & Sky are showing.



How sad, and very scary for those people.

 

[Rimbaud]

Russia, Belarus attacking Ukraine from all sides, hundreds killed: Report

Ukraine was under siege on Thursday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was invading in what he termed a "special military operation".

www.business-standard.com

Ukrainian Interior Ministry claiming hundreds have been killed already.

Also reports that 5 Russian planes, one helicopter, 2 tanks and several trucks have been destroyed, which is denied by Russia.

 

[Spymaster]

What’s the point of big sanctions if everyone already accepts that putin will get the regime change he wants.

Depends on who you ask. The vehemently anti-western crew like a few on here will say there’s no point, that they’re token sanctions anyway and that they’ll be lifted as soon as possible. Others might optimistically suggest that Ukraine hasn’t fallen yet and sanctions might prevent that. But generally, it’s because it’s what happens nowadays when a nation pisses off others and the others don’t want to go to war. They’re a diplomatic response rather than a military one.

 

[Pickman's model]

Depends on who you ask. The vehemently anti-western crew like a few on here will say there’s no point, that they’re token sanctions anyway and that they’ll be lifted as soon as possible. Others might optimistically suggest that Ukraine hasn’t fallen yet and sanctions might prevent that. But generally, it’s because it’s what happens nowadays when a nation pisses off others and the others don’t want to go to war. They’re a diplomatic response rather than a military one.

You don't have to be anti-western to see the effect of sanctions will be very limited, given the effect of the past eight years of sanctions from the 2014 bit

 

[Rob Ray]

I'm not sure it's "anti-Western" to say sanctions are pointless, it's a pretty common view even among the talking heads on the telly that Putin's been insulating Russia's economy against such tactics for most of the last decade.

Edit: Jinx.

 

[Spymaster]

You don't have to be anti-western to see the effect of sanctions will be very limited, given the effect of the past eight years of sanctions from the 2014 bit

Disagree that the effects will be that limited. I think there’ll be some serious hits going in now. Let’s see what happens today.

 

[bimble]

is UK and America etc sending weapons ? (not soldiers hardware)

 

[JimW]

Disagree that the effects will be that limited. I think there’ll be some serious hits going in now. Let’s see what happens today.

Do think they'll be pretty limited and of course he gets the bonus of soaring oil prices due to his recklessness.

 

[Spymaster]

is UK and America etc sending weapons ? (not soldiers hardware)

UK is and have been for ages. Not sure about the US.