Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[FabricLiveBaby!]

yeah i am pretty sure this is bollocks, all the extremely clever twitter idiots were saying immediately that it was a fake, or it must be Putin behind it, but that makes zero sense.

It makes sense if you know the old Soviet strategy of false opposition. Even the opposition patties were play acting.

It was done to give a false impression, and sew distrust.

 

[Spymaster]

What are the special powers of these "workers" of which you speak? How do you propose that they are going to face down the current Russian aggression?

I think he means the wizards.

 

[cupid_stunt]

No, I don't. I think if you have reached a point where you believe that the only possible solution to an imperialist invasion is for other military powers to provide weapons, then you have given up on even believing that it is possible for workers to organise to stop wars.

That's quite understandable by the way. It's a bleak period we're living through.

But workers have ended wars before and may even do so again in the future.

I believe providing weapons as part of a package of measures, including sanctions, intelligence and humanitarian support, is the only realistic option at the moment, there's currently no sign of workers organising to stop the war.

Anti-war protests in Russia have been fairly small, they are not even being reported in Russia now, and with social media restrictions they are not receiving the level of exposure and therefore the oxygen to grow into something much bigger, including strikes, in the short term they are having very little to no impact, and there's no sign that that is likely to change anytime soon, the odds are against that, to think otherwise is somewhat naïve IMO.

Of course, that could change some months down the line, but I would rather hope the measures being taken ATM will bring it to end in the coming weeks, and that it doesn't drag on for months & months, in the hope that the workers will eventually revolt.

I suggest you read the article that's linked below, which goes into some details about the difficulties of any proper anti-war movement getting going.

Over the last fortnight, Russians have risked fines, prison terms of up to 15 years, physical abuse and more to express the belief that their country’s invasion of Ukraine is not in their name. At time of writing, 13,789 protesters have been detained since 24 February. An observer scrolling Twitter or watching the detainee count ratchet up might think that the anti-war movement could threaten Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. But the reality on the ground looks different: the anti-war movement is small, weak and faces serious obstacles.

While the number of detentions is striking, it should not be confused with high turnout, because the detention rate is likely much higher than in normal conditions. Photos suggest that in many cities, the number of people at demonstrations is a few dozen or few hundred at most, with turnouts in Moscow and St Petersburg probably in the thousands.

For individual activists, the landscape is also bleak. Many oppositionists are in self-imposed exile, and lack both the social media reach and the moral authority to call for protest. Those in Russia are rapidly repressed, such as human rights activist Marina Litvinovich, who was arrested on the day of the invasion, a few hours after she posted about protesting. The repressive landscape is changing rapidly, with new consequences for speaking out introduced seemingly on a daily basis, and many potential protesters have already begun leaving the country.

As a result, there is no “anti-war movement” as such in Russia. The protests happening across the country have no coordinating body. Many have been planned through personal networks and social media posts. In some cases, opponents of the war have simply travelled to their nearest city centre in the hope of finding like-minded citizens. Many protests are single-person pickets.

How Putin’s regime stifled anti-war protests in Russia | Sasha de Vogel

The Russian anti-war movement is disjointed at the moment, but it could yet make an impact, says Sasha de Vogel, an academic specialising in Russia

www.theguardian.com

 

[existentialist]

Task&Purpose's latest take on the war. This one looks as mis/disinformation:

 

[Kaka Tim]

More troops, more weoponry, aerial control? Not superior?

More stuff but not overwhelming, and they are struggling to make their advantage count.

 

[bimble]

It makes sense if you know the old Soviet strategy of false opposition. Even the opposition patties were play acting.

It was done to give a false impression, and sew distrust.

I see that quite a lot of Ukrainian accounts think it was fake, because you can't trust anything you see on Russian tv.
But how would staging a fake protest on the news help them in their effort to suppress dissent and control the narrative?
I get why they might want to paint anti-war protestors as degenerate extremists but this wasn't that was it.
And she blames Putin for the whole thing, why would that be signed off as a cunning plan at the Kremlin?
I think the simplest explanation is the best one here & courage does exist.

 

[tim]

[/QUOTE="The39thStep, post: 17589509, member: 39737"]

[/QUOTE]

Get her a suicide vest put her in a corgi-drawn, Boudicaesque chariot and point her towards that column of tanks

 

[JimW]

I see that quite a lot of Ukrainian accounts think it was fake, because you can't trust anything you see on Russian tv.
But how would staging a fake protest on the news help them in their effort to suppress dissent and control the narrative?
I get why they might want to paint anti-war protestors as degenerate extremists but this wasn't that was it.
And she blames Putin for the whole thing, why would that be signed off as a cunning plan at the Kremlin?
I think the simplest explanation is the best one here & courage does exist.

The only possibility I can think is if there's an act two where she's revealed to be some category of person who discredits anti-war sentiment - paid foreign agent, nonce or whatever. Absent that, it must surely be like you say.

 

[Spymaster]

That was reported in The Guardian (I think) in an interview with a Ukrainian soldier. He said that he says “GSTQ” every time he launches an NLAW.

I don’t think it’s standard practice

 

[Doctor Carrot]

There was a "disinformation analyst" on the telly just now, Maria Avdeeva, who reckons this was a Russian propaganda stunt to make it look like Putin is acting alone and doesn't have Russian support. She says the clues are in the fine she got rather than being in jail right now, and the poster was written for a Western audience.

She seemed to know what she was talking about and it does seem like the sort of thing the Russian state would do... but I'm trying to figure out why it would suit Russia to make the West think that Russian citizens don't support Putin?

Possibly if the west thinks that Russian citizens deep down already know the atrocities their state is committing, "we're" less likely to feel the need to reach out and try to communicate with them about it?

Christ, I was actually quite moved by the bravery of that woman but now you've said this I think there's a possibility it could well have been staged. I did actually wonder what the point of writing it in English was but only in passing.

You wouldn't put it past the Russian state to do this would you? It's not as if there's no form for the pretzel like twisting of truth and reality. It's unbelievably cynical and quite scary. If something as simple as that can cause confusion then the potential for reality fuckery from deep fakes and virtual reality is something else.

 

[JimW]

Next week, CCP stages an early Tiananmen memorial because, err, reasons.... surely not.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

I see that quite a lot of Ukrainian accounts think it was fake, because you can't trust anything you see on Russian tv.
But how would staging a fake protest on the news help them in their effort to suppress dissent and control the narrative?
I get why they might want to paint anti-war protestors as degenerate extremists but this wasn't that was it.
And she blames Putin for the whole thing, why would that be signed off as a cunning plan at the Kremlin?
I think the simplest explanation is the best one here & courage does exist.

I do actually think you're right and it is bravery in this instance but the mere fact it's questioned in this way shows how successful Russia's constant barrage of reality bending bullshit has been over the past decade. It also belongs on the pile of loads of other stuff that doesn't bode well for the future.

 

[LDC]

Christ, I was actually quite moved by the bravery of that woman but now you've said this I think there's a possibility it could well have been staged. I did actually wonder what the point of writing it in English was but only in passing.

You wouldn't put it past the Russian state to do this would you? It's not as if there's no form for the pretzel like twisting of truth and reality. It's unbelievably cynical and quite scary. If something as simple as that can cause confusion then the potential for reality fuckery from deep fakes and virtual reality is something else.

People are getting carried away. There's zero indication it was anything more than what it appeared. If people want to make bonkers speculation then do that on the speculation thread.

 

[JimW]

Can we trust what a woman who makes her living as "disinformation expert" says anyway, eh, eh?

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Isn't it far more likely that the woman was staging a genuine, incredibly brave protest? The 'fine only' is the Russian state performance piece - it denies her importance, easy to dismiss as a lone crank. Nothing to see here and all that.

My bigger fear is that the real punishment is yet to be delivered and will be done in a quiet, extra-judicial fashion.

 

[JimW]

Isn't it far more likely that the woman was staging a genuine, incredibly brave protest?

Also far more likely that if anyone's the stooge it's the woman raising this possibility after the fact, as that would at least make some sort of sense and be quick and easy to arrange. Not that I think that's likely either, as they say here, the forest's that big, it has every sort of bird.

 

[Pickman's model]

That was reported in The Guardian (I think) in an interview with a Ukrainian soldier. He said that he says “GSTQ” every time he launches an NLAW.

I don’t think it’s standard practice

It's like the counting one thousand etc when you pull the pin from a grenade before throwing

 

[two sheds]

[/QUOTE="The39thStep, post: 17589509, member: 39737"]

Anecdotally, Ukrainian soldiers have been shouting "Fuck Boris" on the battlefield.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Zelensky reported this to Boris in one of their phone calls. Which is very much proof that Z knows how to make Boris feel special and how to get more NLAWs out of him

 

[MickiQ]

There was an interview on CNN with a Ukrainian soldier who was waving his NLAW about which he referred to as "A Gift From The Queen" he seemed very pleased with it.

 

[Flavour]

The shelling of Kharkiv is a crime against humanity. The city is being reduced to nothing. Indiscriminate shelling of residential areas for weeks on end. It's absolutely incredible that the Russians still haven't taken it. It doesn't even feel like they're really trying: they just shell it from a safe distance without risking the mass casualties that actually trying to capture it would entail -- and it still would entail mass casualties, as the Ukrainian Army is still actively defending the city. Madness.

Shelling of port towns in the southern section of Odessa Oblast too -- that's the bit which is cut off from the rest of Ukraine, sandwiched between Romania and Moldova.

Looks like the battle is raging quite heavily just to the west of Kherson.

 

[gosub]

His view deserves to be heard briefly, at the Hague, during his trial as a war criminal.

In an ideal world, probably. However his trial would open up cases against members of the armed services who, in the main, wouldn't deserve it. But the system as demonstrated at Nuremburg does not allow for "only following orders" as a defense

 

[gosub]

That was reported in The Guardian (I think) in an interview with a Ukrainian soldier. He said that he says “GSTQ” every time he launches an NLAW.

I don’t think it’s standard practice

beats Allah Akbar

 

[frogwoman]

It wasn't staged.

 

[bimble]

Theres a few people on the twitter saying that there's a wave of resignations going on now at major Russian state tv channels. This should probably go in the rumours thread for now though.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Theres a few people on the twitter saying that there's a wave of resignations going on now at major Russian state tv channels. This should probably go in the rumours thread for now though.

Sky has reported two resignations, both from staff currently outside of Russia.

 

[bimble]

probably not a coincidence that Zelensky's speech, in Russian yesterday, said this.

 

[Rimbaud]

probably not a coincidence that Zelensky's speech, in Russian yesterday, said this.

Zelensky is certainly playing a smart game. I have to say that his history as an actor and comedian, with all the oratory skill and emotional intelligence that implies, actually lends itself better to being a wartime leader than Putin's miserable hard man act does.

Maybe not too dissimilar to Churchill genuinely having some literary talent as well.

 

[andysays]

Statement from NATO

9:50 Nato chief says bloc united in support of Ukraine

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has told a meeting of delegates in Brussels the security bloc remains united in its support of Ukraine. In the first meeting since Russia launched its invasion of its neighbour, Stoltenberg says Western leaders have provided massive amounts of military support to Kyiv and pledges to continue that support. "The world is condemning this senseless war," Stoltenberg says. "Nato allies and partners are imposing unprecedented sanctions on Russia and we are united in our support to Ukraine."

"For many years we have trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops and provided large quantities of critical equipment to help Ukraine uphold its right to self-defence. Since the start of the Russian invasion allies have significantly stepped up our support for the brave Ukrainian people, government and the armed forces with military equipment, humanitarian and financial assistance and giving shelter to millions of refugees. Today it is even more important that we all support Ukraine."

As far I as I can see, there's no hint there that they're thinking of an increase in the level of support/intervention

 

[cupid_stunt]

Zelenskiy, has said he sees possible room for compromise in talks as Russia's positions are sounding more “realistic”, and Russia is saying they are close on parts of a possible deal, so hopefully they are edging towards a final deal, keep those fingers crossed.

Ukraine war: Reports '15-point' peace deal being 'seriously discussed' as Putin says he's 'ready to talk'

Sergei Lavrov said some formulations for an agreement are near completion, with neutral status for Kyiv under "serious" consideration.

news.sky.com