Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

It does look like theres a good chance that Putin may really be thinking about how to declare victory and stop losing now, instead of how to get what he originally wanted. Which is brilliant if its true.

 

[Pickman's model]

It does look like theres a good chance that Putin may really be thinking about how to declare victory and stop losing now, instead of how to get what he originally wanted. Which is brilliant if its true.

----->> speculation thread

 

[existentialist]

Zelensky is certainly playing a smart game. I have to say that his history as an actor and comedian, with all the oratory skill and emotional intelligence that implies, actually lends itself better to being a wartime leader than Putin's miserable hard man act does.

Maybe not too dissimilar to Churchill genuinely having some literary talent as well.

Don't tell Johnson that!

 

[Flavour]

Does the deal include the Russian soldiers sticking around to clean up the fucking mess they've made

 

[Pickman's model]

Statement from NATO

9:50 Nato chief says bloc united in support of Ukraine





As far I as I can see, there's no hint there that they're thinking of an increase in the level of support/intervention

After training the soldiers and arming them NATO think it'd be an admission of failure to then do the fighting for them

 

[magneze]

Does the deal include the Russian soldiers sticking around to clean up the fucking mess they've made

TBF on balance I think the Ukrainians will be ok with them leaving the mess as long as they leave.

 

[Pickman's model]

Does the deal include the Russian soldiers sticking around to clean up the fucking mess they've made

VZ thinks their bricklaying skills may be the same as their military ones so in the usual spirit of if you want a job done properly isn't demanding that

 

[existentialist]

VZ thinks their bricklaying skills may be the same as their military ones so in the usual spirit of if you want a job done properly isn't demanding that

TBF, quite a lot of the Russian army may well be better bricklayers than soldiers. It's a low bar.

 

[TopCat]

Zelenskyy says Ukraine ‘must recognise’ it may not join NATO​

Ukraine’s president has said his country should accept that it may not become a member of the US-led NATO military alliance, a key Russian concern that it used to justify its invasion.

“Ukraine is not a member of NATO… We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It’s a truth and it must be recognised,” Zelenskyy told the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force on Tuesday.

 

[zahir]

An argument here that the Russians don't have much chance of taking Kiev.

Ukraine: a recognition of failure | Turbulent Times

As the third week of the February War comes to an end with no immediate resolution in sight, we’re still getting the same shtick from a senior US defence official about the Russian dispositions around Kiev, with the now routine declaration that they remain about 15-20 km outside the city centre...

www.turbulenttimes.co.uk

 

[A380]

Don't tell Johnson that!

Johnson is to Churchill as Nadine Dorries is to Jane Austin.

 

[bimble]

Lavrov apparently used the word 'compromise' today. But then he also said 2 days ago that Russia never attacked Ukraine. It's probably stupid to get your hopes up by taking his pronouncements as anything other than just for domestic consumption (look how reasonable we are being) etc.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Lavrov apparently used the word 'compromise' today. But then he also said 2 days ago that Russia never attacked Ukraine. It's probably stupid to get your hopes up by taking his pronouncements as anything other than just for domestic consumption (look how reasonable we are being) etc.

It's more important that Zelenskiy has said he sees possible room for compromise.

 

[Pickman's model]

Johnson is Churchill as Nadine Dorries is to Jane Austin.

Johnson is more like something that once passed through Churchill's bowels than the great man himself

 

[cupid_stunt]

An argument here that the Russians don't have much chance of taking Kiev.

Ukraine: a recognition of failure | Turbulent Times

As the third week of the February War comes to an end with no immediate resolution in sight, we’re still getting the same shtick from a senior US defence official about the Russian dispositions around Kiev, with the now routine declaration that they remain about 15-20 km outside the city centre...

www.turbulenttimes.co.uk

Interesting read, thanks for posting.

The Russians, says Zelensky, have “begun to understand they will not achieve anything by war”, in which case Putin might appreciate the opportunity to bow out gracefully, before his ramshackle army takes an even bigger thrashing than it already has. With his main objectives – the occupation of Kiev and the overthrow of the Zelensky government – out of reach, he has nothing to gain from prolonging his stay.

And, when this is all over, he will have plenty of time to reflect on his own personal failure. His entire invasion plan rested on a daring coup de main which amounted to a huge gamble. For it to succeed, it needed to be planned to perfection and skilfully executed, with great speed.

Instead, in his delusional state, he believed his plodding, ill-equipped force could prevail in a thrust where the parallels with the 1944 Arnhem battle were all too apparent, and where the failures seem to have been repeated.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Time is not on their side cos eventually they will run out of supplies and the abilty to actually fight before Ukraine. Because its takes them a lot less resources to defend then it does russia to attack, and time allows them to improve their defences and the russian army are disorganised and their morale is very questionable . Russian anti war movement could be a factor as well - but that will be shaped by what happens militarily. An attritional stalemate in a war that becomes increasingly unwinnable could see it snowball - and/or putin might be retiered/shot by his own cronies. hopefully before the cunt nukes kiev.

I don't disagree with that. But I still don't think it suggests that the Ukranian regular army can defeat the invasion, even with increased military aid.

 

[bimble]

It's more important that Zelenskiy has said he sees possible room for compromise.

He's been saying that for a while though. eg ) In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership was over a week ago.
I'm not sure what if any new concession has come from his side, the dropping of nato ambitions is anyway not very meaningful is it as that was never really going to happen.

 

[TopCat]

He's been saying that for a while though. eg ) https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...sia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato- was over a week ago.
I'm not sure what if any new concession has come from his side, the dropping of nato ambitions is anyway not very meaningful is it as that was never really going to happen.

Ukraine ruling out joining NATO was a stated security concern of Russia. Along with removal of foreign weapons and soldiers and autonomy for those two regions (Donbas and the other one).

 

[cupid_stunt]

the dropping of nato ambitions is anyway not very meaningful is it as that was never really going to happen.

It's meaningful to Putin, as it was one of his excuses to invade, so gives him the possibility of claiming a victory.

 

[magneze]

Russia’s chief negotiator in the talks with Ukraine Vladimir Medinsky said that the Austrian and Swedish models would mean Ukraine will be able to keep its army but won’t be allowed to host foreign bases or troops.

from: Ukraine-Russia war latest: shelling in Kyiv and Kharkiv; Zelenskiy says Moscow position more ‘realistic’ – live

Huge climbdown from 'demilitarization'.

Starting to feel somewhat hopeful. Probably a bad idea but still ...

 

[andysays]

I don't disagree with that. But I still don't think it suggests that the Ukrainian regular army can defeat the invasion, even with increased military aid.

Speaking of which...

10:55 Biden to announce $800 million in security assistance for Ukraine

US President Joe Biden is expected to announce the allocation of an additional $800 million (£612m) worth of security assistance to Ukraine later. The move comes ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's address to the US Congress today.

The package of measures is expected to include anti-tank missiles and a move to top up Ukraine's supply of Western anti-armour missiles that Kyiv's troops have used to great effect, including Javelin and Stinger launchers. Some US outlets have also reported that the White House is considering providing the Ukrainian military with single use drones called Switchblades, which can be used to target Russian armour and troops. The Biden administration has already agreed to allocate over $1 billion (£766 million) to Ukraine in the past week.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

There won't be a final agreement out of this. Whatever is agreed, if anything, will be difficult to implement on the ground even if there is good faith on both sides. There is no good faith on Putin's side at all. He will be prepared to break any treaty at a moment's notice. We all know that. On the Ukrainian side there will be so much resistance to any concessions from people whose lives, homes and families have been destroyed that enforcing any accompanying ceasefire will be nigh on impossible. To start off with anyway. That would give Putin his excuse to resume fighting. The whole situation just looks incredibly bleak.

 

[Artaxerxes]

We aren’t going to know how this ends till it ends sadly so any rumours are just that and there will be various bluster announcements and promises and threats in meantime

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't disagree with that. But I still don't think it suggests that the Ukranian regular army can defeat the invasion, even with increased military aid.

The invasion can't be successful unless they can take Kyiv, which seems increasingly unlikely, see the link posted by zahir above.

 

[bimble]

from: Ukraine-Russia war latest: shelling in Kyiv and Kharkiv; Zelenskiy says Moscow position more ‘realistic’ – live

Huge climbdown from 'demilitarization'.

Starting to feel somewhat hopeful. Probably a bad idea but still ...

"denazification" seems to have disappeared completely as well.

 

[SpackleFrog]

What's that got to do with anything? I wouldn't deny that there were people with curly hair, brown eyes, maybe even the occasional lopsided smile in Ukraine and Russia. So what?


We seem to be going around in circles here. Are you seriously suggesting that the West should have held back from supplying weapons to Ukraine to defend itself, so that the "workers" could "organise an end to the war"??

REALLY?

What are the special powers of these "workers" of which you speak? How do you propose that they are going to face down the current Russian aggression?

Either you are being extremely naive, or I am missing something very obvious. And I don't think I am.

You said that we have a very different perspective on the conflict if I am viewing it through the prism of class politics. I don't see that there is any other way to understand conflict, it is workers who do the fighting and the dieing just as in any other war.

What I am saying is that I don't think increased military aid to Ukraine will do anything more than prolong the fighting. Ukraine has been receiving military aid for several years and this did not stop a Russian invasion.

I didn't say at all that the West refusing to send arms would trigger some sort of worker action. But what I am saying is that the anti-war movement in Russia has a better chance of ending the conflict than the Ukrainian army. And I don't think anyone can seriously deny that.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I believe providing weapons as part of a package of measures, including sanctions, intelligence and humanitarian support, is the only realistic option at the moment, there's currently no sign of workers organising to stop the war.

Anti-war protests in Russia have been fairly small, they are not even being reported in Russia now, and with social media restrictions they are not receiving the level of exposure and therefore the oxygen to grow into something much bigger, including strikes, in the short term they are having very little to no impact, and there's no sign that that is likely to change anytime soon, the odds are against that, to think otherwise is somewhat naïve IMO.

Of course, that could change some months down the line, but I would rather hope the measures being taken ATM will bring it to end in the coming weeks, and that it doesn't drag on for months & months, in the hope that the workers will eventually revolt.

I suggest you read the article that's linked below, which goes into some details about the difficulties of any proper anti-war movement getting going.

How Putin’s regime stifled anti-war protests in Russia | Sasha de Vogel

The Russian anti-war movement is disjointed at the moment, but it could yet make an impact, says Sasha de Vogel, an academic specialising in Russia

www.theguardian.com

I think you've undermined your own point there.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I didn't say at all that the West refusing to send arms would trigger some sort of worker action. But what I am saying is that the anti-war movement in Russia has a better chance of ending the conflict than the Ukrainian army. And I don't think anyone can seriously deny that.

There's no serious anti-war movement in Russia, what little there is has been kneecapped, there's no sign of it growing.

I think you've undermined your own point there.

Err, no.

 

[dilute micro]

You said that we have a very different perspective on the conflict if I am viewing it through the prism of class politics. I don't see that there is any other way to understand conflict, it is workers who do the fighting and the dieing just as in any other war.

What I am saying is that I don't think increased military aid to Ukraine will do anything more than prolong the fighting. Ukraine has been receiving military aid for several years and this did not stop a Russian invasion.

I didn't say at all that the West refusing to send arms would trigger some sort of worker action. But what I am saying is that the anti-war movement in Russia has a better chance of ending the conflict than the Ukrainian army. And I don't think anyone can seriously deny that.

Most Ukrainians, the huge majority, are trying to be in the living class.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The invasion can't be successful unless they can take Kyiv, which seems increasingly unlikely, see the link posted by zahir above.

Quality source that. I see they also have some excellent journalism on that site about how both Boris Johnson and Net Zero are 'betrayals of Brexit'.