Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

One of the reasons I found it very difficult to identify with those on "the left" when I was beginning to form my own political ideologies was the way in which everything got framed in terms of some or other political ideology. There seemed to be no room for pragmatism, the idea that some other ideology might have a point, or anything beyond cleaving totally towards the doctrine of choice. And that's before you got into Leninists arguing with Marxists arguing with Maoists, usually about something that was the political equivalent of trying to figure out how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.

And, from the look of it, nothing has changed in the intervening 40 years.

You don't have to be on the left to be anti this war. Russian opposition - albeit tacit - must come from a range of views, from people objecting on grounds of anti-imperialism to staunch advocates of a strong Russia who may support the aim but by no means the inept execution. What fucks anti-war movements is their inability to accept that the same conclusion of opposing a conflict can come from a wide range of starting points

 

[elbows]

One of the reasons I found it very difficult to identify with those on "the left" when I was beginning to form my own political ideologies was the way in which everything got framed in terms of some or other political ideology. There seemed to be no room for pragmatism, the idea that some other ideology might have a point, or anything beyond cleaving totally towards the doctrine of choice. And that's before you got into Leninists arguing with Marxists arguing with Maoists, usually about something that was the political equivalent of trying to figure out how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.

And, from the look of it, nothing has changed in the intervening 40 years.

Thats a good way to avoid becoming a prisoner to other peoples dogmas. But then the challenge is to keep an eye on what ends up filling that void in our own minds, what dogmas of our own design become a part of our own patterns of thinking, especially as the decades go by and at least some degree of rigidity sets in.

 

[elbows]

You don't have to be on the left to be anti this war. Russian opposition - albeit tacit - must come from a range of views, from people objecting on grounds of anti-imperialism to staunch advocates of a strong Russia who may support the aim but by no means the inept execution. What fucks anti-war movements is their inability to accept that the same conclusion of opposing a conflict can come from a wide range of starting points

In-fighting within a broad church is an issue for sure, but I wonder if what really fucks things is the limitations as to how far people are prepared to go in their opposition, how much power to change events people end up thinking they actually have, and how limited the sense of what is actually possible becomes. I think Tony Benn was fond of pointing out in his later decades of the role of the likes of the BBC in crushing hope, limiting our ambitions.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[A380]

We could ask the Ukrainian working class which they'd prefer.

No no, you can’t ask the working class. They might come up with all sorts of views which don’t support the line. What you need is a vanguard of the working class, fully committed to the line who can lead the rest of the class to ( checks notes) glorious victory.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah something I learned spending time with Russian opposition types was that the main dividing line in Russian politics isnt left vs right, workers, environment or otherwise. Its pro or anti Putin. Apart from out and out fascists those questions are often viewed as secondary. I'm not saying that's a good thing (and its probably contributed to the oppo struggling to make headway until recently) but you know, there it is.

 

[Cid]

TBH, your perspective looks a lot like someone worrying about how the tablecloths aren't straight, while the hotel is burning down around them.

The people who are fighting in this war are just that - people. They might be "workers", but right now, they're people, either defending their own land, or attacking someone else's land. And there's nothing we're going to be able to do about any structural aspects of their relationship with their various states while there's a hot war on the ground. Maybe save the idealistic ideologising for when the war is over, and people are trying to win the peace?

And I really don't quite understand what point you're trying to make in criticising the provision of military aid. What are you actually suggesting?

I think these positions of immovable political principle have taken an absolute pounding over the last decade or so... Particularly in the US with Trump/supreme court. But also I think have opened up new avenues for leftist activism that may result in more productive routes forward. The ad hoc gig economy unions, housing activism, mutual aid groups... even some of the more idpol focussed stuff. For me these are far more relevant and vital than abstract pontificating on class positioning. Also substantially less likely to put off anyone who hasn't spent the last few decades diligently working through piles of pamphlets.

Anyway, probably stuff for the 'what does the left do?' thread, but I cannot be arsed with that discussion beyond the above somewhat vague precis of 'what I reckon'.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yeah I don't get that. I think if Russia wanted to do something like that they have other options like not arresting anyone waving a bit of blank paper around.

I have manged to find myself in a Ukrainian telegram chat. It can't follow a lot as it is busy and apparently Google translate is awful at translating Ukrainian.

But they did not seem well disposed towards he, sticking up pictures of her very pro Russia instergram account. But I got the impression it was more an attitude of 'Bit fucking late' rather than she was a fake.

That's understandable. Think she said herself she was responsible for propaganda etc.

 

[frogwoman]

Should also say that until recently the great Russian chauvinist, the pro market liberals, the left wing communists 'without illusions' were all able to find what they wanted on the pro Putin side as well.

 

[elbows]

When the personal implications of opposition beyond a certain point are made very clear to people, its no surprise that there is impetus to conveniently find reason to believe the current figurehead could accomodate your desires, so you dont actually have to be in opposition to them at all.

This apples to states that are considered democracies too, lots of people dont feel comfortable rushing far beyond the confines of the mainstream system. Some try to square the circle by posturing as radical but when push comes to shove many are actually very far from radical and will ultimately enforce the narrow confines.

 

[JimW]

Let's not have pragmatic liberalism patting itself on the back, your lack of any understanding of imperialism or class politics was a direct contributor to the preconditions of this war. If the left failed, and it did, at least it mostly failed looking in the right direction

 

[zahir]

I'm also perplexed by the way at posters here suggesting the journalist on Channel One was some sort of deep state operation. I can understand Ukrainians thinking it when there are Russian bombs dropping on them, but it seems a bit bizarre people not in a war zone would make such claims.

This article gives some background.

‘Everyone knows they’re lying’ How Marina Ovsyannikova rebelled against Russian state television — Meduza

During a live broadcast on Monday evening, March 14, on Channel One Russian state television, a station employee named Marina Ovsyannikova ran out on stage behind the news anchor, unfurled an antiwar sign, and shouted antiwar slogans. Ovsyannikova managed just a few seconds on the air before the...

meduza.io

 

[frogwoman]

Its perfectly possible to find opposition demos in Russia where right wing populists (not fash) are getting their heads kicked in alongside communists and idpol feminists for opposing the regime. Completely different situation to the uk (for now).

 

[elbows]

Let's not have pragmatic liberalism patting itself on the back

If pragmatic liberalism is denied the opportunity to pat itself on the back then I'm not sure there would be much proof left that it even exists. OK well there is the empty hand-wringing and looking the other way, a free market of contortionists.

 

[frogwoman]

На украинском телеканале опубликовали призыв Зеленского к гражданам сложить оружие. Президент назвал это «детской провокацией» — Meduza

Днем 16 марта в эфире телеканала «Украина 24» появилась бегущая строка с призывом к украинцам «сложить оружие».

meduza.io

Russian hackers broadcast a fake appeal by Zelensky for Ukrainians to surrender

 

[bimble]

I think the idea of peace breaking out anytime soon is probably delusion. Russian news website Tass is a weird place, when you read the English language version there’s spokesmen talking about compromise but when you look at the Russian site you get this reportedly said by the man himself today:

 

[cupid_stunt]

Some progress with talks, lots of ifs & buts, including if Putin would accept protection of Ukraine's security from NATO countries, in exchange for them not actually joining NATO, nor hosting NATO weapons & bases in the country, I am sceptical on that.

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed in full for the first time on Monday, would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey, the people said.

The nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security — and their acceptability to Moscow — could yet prove to be a big obstacle to any deal, as could the status of Ukrainian territories seized by Russia and its proxies in 2014. A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian security failed to prevent Russian aggression against its neighbour.

Full paywall busted FT report - Ukraine and Russia draw up neutrality plan to end war

 

[existentialist]

Thats a good way to avoid becoming a prisoner to other peoples dogmas. But then the challenge is to keep an eye on what ends up filling that void in our own minds, what dogmas of our own design become a part of our own patterns of thinking, especially as the decades go by and at least some degree of rigidity sets in.

My own personal struggle against dogma relies on pragmatism - a lot of pragmatism. On the whole, it's served me OK so far.

 

[bimble]

I don’t believe it, the claims about an imminent peace agreement. I think Lavrov is lying, that’s his job.

 

[existentialist]

I don’t believe it, the claims about an imminent peace agreement. I think Lavrov is lying, that’s his job.

Were his lips moving? That's the usual way to check...

 

[Raheem]

I think the idea of peace breaking out anytime soon is probably delusion. Russian news website Tass is a weird place, when you read the English language version there’s spokesmen talking about compromise but when you look at the Russian site you get this reportedly said by the man himself today:

View attachment 314636

Not sure what you are seeing there. Putin is just saying that he tried everything before going to war. Which is fair enough. Annexing Crimea, starting a civil conflict in Donbass. Everything.

 

[elbows]

I think the idea of peace breaking out anytime soon is probably delusion. Russian news website Tass is a weird place, when you read the English language version there’s spokesmen talking about compromise but when you look at the Russian site you get this reportedly said by the man himself today:

View attachment 314636

He was talking about the prospects of solving things diplomatically before he decided to start a war and invade. Defending his approach that led to this war doesnt tell us anything about what happens in negotiations at this point. What he said about exhausted diplomacy then doesnt provide any indication about fresh diplomacy now.

 

[Flavour]

I think there's that possibility, yes bimble . The inevitable failure of the talks will allow Putin to say to his own people that it's the Ukrainian's fault the war has to continue because they're not being reasonable, something like that

 

[elbows]

On what basis can the talks failure be described as inevitable? I do not assume the talks will succeed, but neither do I have reason to assume they are certain to fail.

 

[bimble]

On what basis can the talks failure be described as inevitable? I do not assume the talks will succeed, but neither do I have reason to assume they are certain to fail.

Don’t think anyone anywhere can claim anything’s Inevitable. We’re all just pointlessly guessing at stuff. Some of us (for instance me) aren’t very worried about being proved totally wrong tomorrow. Would be delighted if that happened.

 

[Flavour]

On what basis can the talks failure be described as inevitable? I do not assume the talks will succeed, but neither do I have reason to assume they are certain to fail.

I don't actually know if failure is inevitable, I meant to say: (in the eventuality the talks are just theater for the Russian domestic audience, then) their inevitable failure will be used to shore up public opinion in favor of the war in Russia

 

[zahir]

Mayor of Melitopol released after abduction - as it happened

This blog is closed

www.theguardian.com

Serhiy Orlov, Mariupol’s deputy mayor, told the BBC that between 1,000 and 1,200 people were there during today’s attack. The number of casualties is still unknown.

eta: the Guardian has now amended its report.

Mariupol council posted an image of the city’s theatre showing it sustained heavy damage in today’s attack. Russian forces had “purposefully and cynically destroyed the Drama Theater in the heart of Mariupol,” it said.

The plane dropped a bomb on a building where hundreds of peaceful Mariupol residents were hiding.

It said casualty numbers were being confirmed.

eta:

 

[elbows]

I don't actually know if failure is inevitable, I meant to say: (in the eventuality the talks are just theater for the Russian domestic audience, then) their inevitable failure will be used to shore up public opinion in favor of the war in Russia

Thanks for the clarification.

I see Zelensky continued to demonstrate a very good understanding of rhetoric, pressure and propaganda today when appealing to the US congress. When speaking to UK parliament he evoked Churchill, this time he evoked things like 9/11 and Pearl harbour. I hear he also showed a video that contained graphic images of the sort that dont usually make it onto tv in our countries, but since the US networks were covering the event live, they ended up on screens there and apologies were later issued.

 

[The39thStep]

Thanks for the clarification.

I see Zelensky continued to demonstrate a very good understanding of rhetoric, pressure and propaganda today when appealing to the US congress. When speaking to UK parliament he evoked Churchill, this time he evoked things like 9/11 and Pearl harbour. I hear he also showed a video that contained graphic images of the sort that dont usually make it onto tv in our countries, but since the US networks were covering the event live, they ended up on screens there and apologies were later issued.

Take it he never brought up Vietnam ?

 

[SpackleFrog]

Oh, come on, these protests are tiny compared to those anti-Putin ones back in 2011-13, and they failed, the twat is still in charge 10 years later.

If you think any meaningful anti-war movement in Russia is going to bring the war to end anytime soon, you are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land.

Why are you twisting what I'm saying?

I didn't say that it was likely an antiwar movement would bring an end to the war anytime soon. In fact I think the lack of support coming from outside makes this less likely. I think you and people make you make it less likely.

My point was that there is a better chance of opposition to Putin at home ending the invasion than the Ukranian regular army. If you want to disagree with that then fine but just say that so we know what you think.