Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[_Russ_]

Ukraine agreeing to become a neutral state might be the kindest thing in terms of saving life which is the most important consideration, though in my view gives a victory to the arsehole in the Kremlin which really sticks in my throat, but im not in Ukraine waiting to for a shell to land on my house

 

[emanymton]

You said that we have a very different perspective on the conflict if I am viewing it through the prism of class politics. I don't see that there is any other way to understand conflict, it is workers who do the fighting and the dieing just as in any other war.

What I am saying is that I don't think increased military aid to Ukraine will do anything more than prolong the fighting. Ukraine has been receiving military aid for several years and this did not stop a Russian invasion.

I didn't say at all that the West refusing to send arms would trigger some sort of worker action. But what I am saying is that the anti-war movement in Russia has a better chance of ending the conflict than the Ukrainian army. And I don't think anyone can seriously deny that.

They are not separate though. Any chance an anti-war moment in Russia has of stopping the war is dependent and the Ukraine army holding its grounds.

And let's be honest it will not be stopped by any kind of street moment. The pressures form withing the Russian state will stop it before it gets to that point.

And I remain far from convinced that ended the conflict as quick as possible is the best war to avoid bloodshed. If Ukraine surrendered it would end the conflict. But a prolonged invasion could be far more bloody than the current war and create far more missery for Ukrainian civilians than the current war.

Calling for workes to rise up and end the war is fine rhetoric but it is just that, it does not seem to reflect what is happening on the ground.

 

[bimble]

Because their stated aims were so vague and open to interpretation, Russia has quite a lot of room for maneuver if they do want to call it a day and declare victory, its not as easy on the other side.

 

[SpackleFrog]

There's no serious anti-war movement in Russia, what little there is has been kneecapped, there's no sign of it growing.



Err, no.

There is. People are still demonstrating and organising, even in the knowledge that they risk arrest. I don't think you have shown any evidence for the idea the protests are small. Certainly from the reports I get from socialists in Russia, the idea that the demonstrations are small and that everyone participating is detained is not true. The demonstrations are both large and widespread; in the first weekend there were demonstrations in 58 cities. There is not widespread support for the war, which is very different to when Crimea was annexed and there clearly was popular support for that in Russia.

I totally understand that people will feel hopeless and that maybe there is no alternative but to just give Ukraine all the weapons they need. I don't fully agree but I can empathise.

However, I don't understand why you would attempt to dismiss the efforts of the left in Russia - who are used to being detained on demonstrations remember, it's not a new thing, they're used to defending themselves as well - as being of no consequence, based on no real evidence. That to me suggests something that is beyond simply feeling hopeless and wanting to do something or hope for something to end the conflict.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm also perplexed by the way at posters here suggesting the journalist on Channel One was some sort of deep state operation. I can understand Ukrainians thinking it when there are Russian bombs dropping on them, but it seems a bit bizarre people not in a war zone would make such claims.

 

[Serge Forward]

I'm also perplexed by the way at posters here suggesting the journalist on Channel One was some sort of deep state operation. I can understand Ukrainians thinking it when there are Russian bombs dropping on them, but it seems a bit bizarre people not in a war zone would make such claims.

Frankly, it all seems a bit conspiraloon.

 

[contadino]

Ukraine agreeing to become a neutral state might be the kindest thing in terms of saving life which is the most important consideration, though in my view gives a victory to the arsehole in the Kremlin which really sticks in my throat, but im not in Ukraine waiting to for a shell to land on my house

I think the sanctions will remain in place beyond Russian military withdrawal. I think they'll stay in place until Putin's removed.

 

[Spymaster]

Frankly, it all seems a bit conspiraloon.

There's only a couple of posters here going down that route and it seems to be the ones who get most of their opinions from Twitter

 

[andysays]

There's no serious anti-war movement in Russia, what little there is has been kneecapped, there's no sign of it growing...

You might argue they're not significant, but to say they're not serious sounds a bit dismissive to me.

I also think it's difficult to get an accurate picture of the extent to which it might be growing.

 

[emanymton]

I'm also perplexed by the way at posters here suggesting the journalist on Channel One was some sort of deep state operation. I can understand Ukrainians thinking it when there are Russian bombs dropping on them, but it seems a bit bizarre people not in a war zone would make such claims.

Yeah I don't get that. I think if Russia wanted to do something like that they have other options like not arresting anyone waving a bit of blank paper around.

I have manged to find myself in a Ukrainian telegram chat. It can't follow a lot as it is busy and apparently Google translate is awful at translating Ukrainian.

But they did not seem well disposed towards he, sticking up pictures of her very pro Russia instergram account. But I got the impression it was more an attitude of 'Bit fucking late' rather than she was a fake.

 

[The39thStep]

Zelenskyy says Ukraine ‘must recognise’ it may not join NATO​

Ukraine’s president has said his country should accept that it may not become a member of the US-led NATO military alliance, a key Russian concern that it used to justify its invasion.

“Ukraine is not a member of NATO… We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It’s a truth and it must be recognised,” Zelenskyy told the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force on Tuesday.

Didn't someone on here say it was actually enshrined in their constitution a couple of years ago?

 

[Cid]

Didn't someone on here say it was actually enshrined in their constitution a couple of years ago?

Yes. Which, come to think of it, presumably means they need 2/3 of the Rada to agree to it. From a brief scan of wiki on how their constitution etc operates.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There is. People are still demonstrating and organising, even in the knowledge that they risk arrest. I don't think you have shown any evidence for the idea the protests are small. Certainly from the reports I get from socialists in Russia, the idea that the demonstrations are small and that everyone participating is detained is not true. The demonstrations are both large and widespread; in the first weekend there were demonstrations in 58 cities. There is not widespread support for the war, which is very different to when Crimea was annexed and there clearly was popular support for that in Russia.

I totally understand that people will feel hopeless and that maybe there is no alternative but to just give Ukraine all the weapons they need. I don't fully agree but I can empathise.

However, I don't understand why you would attempt to dismiss the efforts of the left in Russia - who are used to being detained on demonstrations remember, it's not a new thing, they're used to defending themselves as well - as being of no consequence, based on no real evidence. That to me suggests something that is beyond simply feeling hopeless and wanting to do something or hope for something to end the conflict.

Oh, come on, these protests are tiny compared to those anti-Putin ones back in 2011-13, and they failed, the twat is still in charge 10 years later.

If you think any meaningful anti-war movement in Russia is going to bring the war to end anytime soon, you are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land.

 

[elbows]

Because their stated aims were so vague and open to interpretation, Russia has quite a lot of room for maneuver if they do want to call it a day and declare victory, its not as easy on the other side.

Yeah theres plenty of room to save face. On the Ukraine side, the survival of the government and the end of hostilities is more than enough to count as victory.

Ultimately I will judge things based on the future of Ukraine in regards whose 'sphere of influence' it ends up most obviously within. Even if we can quibble endlessly about the detail and what Putins exact aims were, I hope we can agree that it was ultimately about an ugly tug of war in terms of influence and alignment.

 

[Spymaster]

Oh, come on, these protests are tiny compared to those anti-Putin ones back in 2011-13, and they failed, the twat is still in charge 10 years later.

If you think any meaningful anti-war movement in Russia is going to bring the war to end anytime soon, you are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land.

Don’t be daft. If this had been left to the working class they’d have had it pissed on by now.

Comrade.

 

[two sheds]

We could ask the Ukrainian working class which they'd prefer.

 

[Rimbaud]

Oh, come on, these protests are tiny compared to those anti-Putin ones back in 2011-13, and they failed, the twat is still in charge 10 years later.

If you think any meaningful anti-war movement in Russia is going to bring the war to end anytime soon, you are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land.

That's true - but there are other factors such as low morale in the army and financial collapse that could potentially snowball together with the anti-war movement.

I don't know how likely this is but I don't think it could be ruled out as a possibility if the war drags on for months or years.

 

[Pickman's model]

That's true - but there are other factors such as low morale in the army and financial collapse that could potentially snowball together with the anti-war movement.

I don't know how likely this is but I don't think it could be ruled out as a possibility if the war drags on for months or years.

The rock on which this stumbles is the way communication channels have been shut down, with social media effectively blocked for those not using a VPN. Sure, things don't need the internet to get going. But the auld ways of operating to spread information and actions have probably atrophied in Russia as they have here.

 

[elbows]

An argument here that the Russians don't have much chance of taking Kiev.

Ukraine: a recognition of failure | Turbulent Times

As the third week of the February War comes to an end with no immediate resolution in sight, we’re still getting the same shtick from a senior US defence official about the Russian dispositions around Kiev, with the now routine declaration that they remain about 15-20 km outside the city centre...

www.turbulenttimes.co.uk

It brings up a number of interesting details which the mainstream media are failing to dwell on. However it makes some rather large leaps, usually by taking some notable setbacks that Russia has suffered so far, stuff that is worth drawing attention to, and then assuming that Russia can never overcome any of those failures. The way it does this does not ring true to me, so the article and its author are for me a source I would happily read to pick up on various details, but whilst viewing its overall narrative and his confident conclusions with a high degree of skepticism.

Because I wiggled my eyebrows many times when reading the article, I decided to check out some of the same authors other work in recent times. So I read some of his covid articles, and I saw a similar pattern. He used all sorts of details that were interesting, plenty of which may have been mentioned fleetingly by the mainstream media but without those details affecting their overall narrative or being dwelt on. However his overall Covid stance in 2022 is a complete fucking disgrace that made my blood boil, hampering my ability to calmly analyse his technique in a detached manner. I did not have the energy to check whether his stance was in better alignment with reality in earlier phases of the pandemic, and this is obviously not the thread to talk about that further if I ever do.

I concluded that he is an incredibly lopsided spinner who uses reasonably good ingredients to serve up dishes that feature overwhelmingly strong tastes of his choice, overwhelming all the nuances that reality actually tends to feature.

What I very much hope is that in regards Kyiv we never get to find out what the reality of Russias future capabilities and potential gains are, and that the setbacks they suffered so far are enough to make peace talks productive in the coming days. There have clearly been some real setbacks that have changed timescales and calculations, and I want those to lead to a different outcome, not to have to sit around in horror waiting to see which ones are actually insurmountable over a longer period of time.

 

[bimble]

Yeah theres plenty of room to save face. On the Ukraine side, the survival of the government and the end of hostilities is more than enough to count as victory.

Not convinced by this at all. They’ll be asked to give up bits of their territory and reduce the capability of their army amongst other things. I don’t think it’s realistic to imagine that as long as they get to keep their government & stop being bombed they can just call it a victory.
Russia has loads of room to declare victory because their aims were never concretely stated. Much harder to see how Ukraine compromises imo.

 

[elbows]

Not convinced by this at all. They’ll be asked to give up bits of their territory and reduce the capability of their army amongst other things. I don’t think it’s realistic to imagine that as long as they get to keep their government & stop being bombed they can just call it a victory. Much harder to see how Ukraine compromises imo.

The way anyone gets to save face and declare victory is to focus on what they have gained or not lost, not the stuff they have lost or conceded. The world is full of compromises and we've seen so many examples of how such things are then spun that I dont understand why you have such trouble imagining the same this time.

Anyway lets see what the terms of peace turn out to be before exploring this stuff further.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah I'm not convinced this is a victory at all with Russia occupying bits of the country

 

[elbows]

Yeah I'm not convinced this is a victory at all with Russia occupying bits of the country

I rarely expect 'total victory' on either side unless one side is utterly crushed in a way there is no coming back from. If peace breaks out at this stage then it will involve partial victories on both sides.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Putin honouring a peace deal in the short term will depend on weather he is looking for an excuse to climb down and claim "victory" or wether he thinks he can benefit from a short ceasefire to rearm and have another pop. I cant see the latter being a flyer as the Ukranians will be more than ready for him.

ETA - seems to be less talk of unleashing chemcial agents etc against cities. The articel above makes a good point - that what is being described as a "bombardment" of Kiev is actually sporadic shelling that serves no purpose other than love level random murder and destruction. Horrible - but will not come close to breaking the defenders will to resist. This does suggest that they actually dont have the capacity to do a Grozny on Kiev - not while its forces are dispersed over such a large area.
Although Elbows makes some valid criticisms of the article - I think I agree with much of it - that they will struggle to take Kiev. They've had three weeks to prepare the defences and stock pile food, weapons and ammo. Even if it is surrouneded - not sure the Russians have the military strength to sustain a siege.

 

[Cid]

I rarely expect 'total victory' on either side unless one side is utterly crushed in a way there is no coming back from. If peace breaks out at this stage then it will involve partial victories on both sides.

Also not entirely convinced that VZ's line on this is going to be consistent. Jack Detsch reporting the meeting with congress today has this for example:

"Ukraine calls for NEW alliance of countries to stop conflicts outside of NATO: President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky's proposal would aim for nations to provide immediate weapons assistance to countries under attack. "

Also continues to press for no fly-zone or, if too much, more air defence.

This is a confusing mess involving a lot of propaganda... fully no blame on VZ for this, the man must be under so much pressure from so many directions. But I don't think we're really going to know much with clarity until documents are actually being published and signed.

 

[existentialist]

You said that we have a very different perspective on the conflict if I am viewing it through the prism of class politics. I don't see that there is any other way to understand conflict, it is workers who do the fighting and the dieing just as in any other war.

What I am saying is that I don't think increased military aid to Ukraine will do anything more than prolong the fighting. Ukraine has been receiving military aid for several years and this did not stop a Russian invasion.

I didn't say at all that the West refusing to send arms would trigger some sort of worker action. But what I am saying is that the anti-war movement in Russia has a better chance of ending the conflict than the Ukrainian army. And I don't think anyone can seriously deny that.

TBH, your perspective looks a lot like someone worrying about how the tablecloths aren't straight, while the hotel is burning down around them.

The people who are fighting in this war are just that - people. They might be "workers", but right now, they're people, either defending their own land, or attacking someone else's land. And there's nothing we're going to be able to do about any structural aspects of their relationship with their various states while there's a hot war on the ground. Maybe save the idealistic ideologising for when the war is over, and people are trying to win the peace?

And I really don't quite understand what point you're trying to make in criticising the provision of military aid. What are you actually suggesting?

 

[zahir]

This may be looking towards the situation after an agreement.

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin honouring a peace deal in the short term will depend on weather he is looking for an excuse to climb down and claim "victory" or wether he thinks he can benefit from a short ceasefire to rearm and have another pop. I cant see the latter being a flyer as the Ukranians will be more than ready for him.

ETA - seems to be less talk of unleashing chemcial agents etc against cities. The articel above makes a good point - that what is being described as a "bombardment" of Kiev is actually sporadic shelling that serves no purpose other than love level random murder and destruction. Horrible - but will not come close to breaking the defenders will to resist. This does suggest that they actually dont have the capacity to do a Grozny on Kiev - not while its forces are dispersed over such a large area.
Although Elbows makes some valid criticisms of the article - I think I agree with much of it - that they will struggle to take Kiev. They've had three weeks to prepare the defences and stock pile food, weapons and ammo. Even if it is surrouneded - not sure the Russians have the military strength to sustain a siege.

I think that the destruction of Kharkiv, Mariupol, even Odessa will be widely forgotten if not forgiven by people outside Ukraine in a few years time. But the destruction of Kyiv would not, not in Ukraine, not in Russia, and not even in western Europe. Not to mention that if Putin's claim that Ukrainians are in essence errant Russians is to stand up levelling that great historic city would stand against his position. Even the great statue of the Kievan prince in Moscow would pick up on that atrocity

 

[elbows]

Although Elbows makes some valid criticisms of the article - I think I agree with much of it - that they will struggle to take Kiev. They've had three weeks to prepare the defences and stock pile food, weapons and ammo. Even if it is surrouneded - not sure the Russians have the military strength to sustain a siege.

But the article goes further than just claiming they will struggle to take Kyiv. The author makes it sound like its actually now not possible for Russia to ever achieve that aim at all, that Russia is just lashing out in frustration, and that Putins ambitions have been totally thwarted. Thats too much of a stretch, although at the moment there is a window of opportunity to have a result that amounts to much the same thing. As I said earlier, I dont want things to carry on in a way that tests the reality vs our opinions on this.

 

[existentialist]

Oh, come on, these protests are tiny compared to those anti-Putin ones back in 2011-13, and they failed, the twat is still in charge 10 years later.

If you think any meaningful anti-war movement in Russia is going to bring the war to end anytime soon, you are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land.

One of the reasons I found it very difficult to identify with those on "the left" when I was beginning to form my own political ideologies was the way in which everything got framed in terms of some or other political ideology. There seemed to be no room for pragmatism, the idea that some other ideology might have a point, or anything beyond cleaving totally towards the doctrine of choice. And that's before you got into Leninists arguing with Marxists arguing with Maoists, usually about something that was the political equivalent of trying to figure out how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.

And, from the look of it, nothing has changed in the intervening 40 years.