Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[elbows]

The journalists were killed in Irpin (well, just outside it), which has been contested ground for more than a week. It was also artillery fire. Of course Russian forces are advancing, but it's slow. What they seem to be doing is moving gradually south on the west side of Kyiv, presumably so they can cut off routes of resupply. They haven't done that yet, and every day they don't is another day of stockpiling and reinforcing defensive positions. The defensive lines to the north of Kyiv effectively follow the Irpin river, they have yet to move beyond that. On the east they need to take Brovary, which is a town of 100,000 people. Kyiv Oblast is 28,000sqkm (a bit less than 1.5 Waleses), a huge area, and they'll be trying to control that with what? 100,000 men maybe?

This is obviously very armchair general, and somewhat uncomfortable, but the point is that there doesn't seem to be much evidence of things happening quickly. Of course that may be completely wrong, but really it seems to track with what the more knowledgable twitter types are saying. And within that it does make it more apparent that holding Kyiv and forcing Russia into a very difficult siege probably has some sound strategic basis beyond its obvious importance as the capital. Just... also very grim.

Yeah the likes of the ISW have in recent days downgraded their expectations of what to expect in terms of major attacks in the area. eg:

Local company- and battalion-level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive operations that Russian forces attempting to encircle Kyiv can support at this time. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northeast of the city, around Sumy, and only limited (and unsuccessful) attacks southeast of Kharkiv. Russian force generation efforts, including reservist and conscript call-ups and the ongoing transport of Syrian fighters to Russia and Belarus, are unable to change the balance of forces around Kyiv within the coming week. Russian forces have not conducted simultaneous attacks along their multiple axes of advance across Ukraine since March 4 and are unlikely to do so in the next week.

Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis are aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east.

Russian forces conducted limited attacks against several towns close to the western bank of the Dnipro River on March 15. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations east of Kyiv and continued to prioritize improving logistics and reinforcing combat units. Russian forces are unlikely to launch offensive operations to encircle Kyiv larger than the scattered Russian attacks observed northwest of Kyiv targeting Irpin on March 14 and Guta-Mezhyhirska on March 15 within the coming week but may launch further tactical attacks.

And other stuff like that from their latest report at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15

I mentioned the new curfew but as with the previous curfew, its not clear what its being done in expectation of exactly.

 

[Dogsauce]

NATO should send a tug out to troll them.

Or some Irish fishing vessels…

 

[two sheds]

with tractors on them

 

[The39thStep]

 

[SpackleFrog]

You mean, an abandonment of student politics.

No, I don't. I think if you have reached a point where you believe that the only possible solution to an imperialist invasion is for other military powers to provide weapons, then you have given up on even believing that it is possible for workers to organise to stop wars.

That's quite understandable by the way. It's a bleak period we're living through.

But workers have ended wars before and may even do so again in the future.

 

[SpackleFrog]

If they they are fought to a standstill and no longer able to carry out offensive operations - then there is no point in them sitting on and holding all the land they have captured between all the major urban centres - which would have to be supplied and policed and defended. They may try and keep the bits they want to claim in the east - but that's about it.

Do you think Ukraine can fight them to a standstill?

They might be able to to be fair, Putin's armies are making progress but slowly, I have no grasp of what might be militarily possible. But I'm asking what you believe.

 

[SpackleFrog]

OK, well, if you are viewing an essentially capitalistic struggle over a large chunk of land in the middle of Europe through the prism of class politics, I think I can see why our perspectives might differ very fundamentally.

Why? It's an imperialist struggle over a large chunk of land, sure, but I'm sure you wouldn't deny that there are workers in Ukraine and workers in Russia and workers in all the other countries involved too.

 

[xenon]

No, his personal money

It’s not in any banks where the west can get at it.

 

[Bingoman]

I think he is bending the truth a little here

 

[Kaka Tim]

Do you think Ukraine can fight them to a standstill?

They might be able to to be fair, Putin's armies are making progress but slowly, I have no grasp of what might be militarily possible. But I'm asking what you believe.

Yes I think they could - based on what info we have and what many credible people are saying. Basically time is on ukraines side not Russia's.
Offensive warfare is hugely difficult to sustain over a prolonged period. Its a quesiton of long they can keep going - food, ammunition, weaponry, equipment and personnel are all getting used up at a rate of knots with very little progress - and thats before allowing for factors like the effect of sanctions, domestic unhappiness and - hugely important - the morale of the troops (russian - pretty shit by all accounts vs ukranian - totally fired up).
Meanwhile The ukranians have a plentiful supply of willing recruits and things like lots of very effective hand held anti- tank and anti air weapons. One "fire and forget" anti tank missile (costs about £40,000 - maybe a few days training to use it) - can take out a russian tank (costs £5 millionish, 3 or 4 highly trained crew) with one shot. Plus ukraine is certainly getting top notch nato intel on russian troop movements - so they can plot ambushes or hit and run raids on convoys and armoured columns.
If putin gets to the point of using WMD though ...

 

[two sheds]

How much food and water is there in the Ukrainian cities though?

 

[gosub]

Saint Tony speaks

Tony Blair: west has fortnight to help end war in Ukraine

Timeframe last chance to agree peace deal with Russia before conflict escalates, former UK PM says

www.theguardian.com

That photo needs a caption contest.

He ain't a saint but IMO his view, deserves more than a filtered through the Guardian. The Immediate Challenge in Ukraine: Maximum Pressure Combined With Structured Negotiation




4 days in it.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yes I think they could - based on what info we have and what many credible people are saying. Basically time is on ukraines side not Russia's.
Offensive warfare is hugely difficult to sustain over a prolonged period. Its a quesiton of long they can keep going - food, ammunition, weaponry, equipment and personnel are all getting used up at a rate of knots with very little progress - and thats before allowing for factors like the effect of sanctions, domestic unhappiness and - hugely important - the morale of the troops (russian - pretty shit by all accounts vs ukranian - totally fired up).
Meanwhile The ukranians have a plentiful supply of willing recruits and things like lots of very effective hand held anti- tank and anti air weapons. One "fire and forget" anti tank missile (costs about £40,000 - maybe a few days training to use it) - can take out a russian tank (costs £5 millionish, 3 or 4 highly trained crew) with one shot. Plus ukraine is certainly getting top notch nato intel on russian troop movements - so they can plot ambushes or hit and run raids on convoys and armoured columns.
If putin gets to the point of using WMD though ...

Time is not on Russia's side because the longer war drags on the more potential for anger at the war to grow in Russia though right? This is a bigger concern than the Ukrainian regular army for them

 

[Kaka Tim]

How much food and water is there in the Ukrainian cities though?

They have to surround them first. Mariupol is being slowly strangled but although im sure things are not great in Kiev and other cites under the cosh- they will still be getting supplied.

 

[frogwoman]

Kadyrov calls Elon Musk "Elona" in mocking response to earlier challenge:



Strong meme elements in play here - very odd indeed and difficult to get one's head around.

Homophobic/transphobic 'gayropa' bullshit that's a staple of putinism. Saying that Musk is a woman or trans for wanting to go up against putin in a fight ffs

Don't forget this guy is an actual war criminal

 

[Kaka Tim]

Time is not on Russia's side because the longer war drags on the more potential for anger at the war to grow in Russia though right? This is a bigger concern than the Ukrainian regular army for them

Time is not on their side cos eventually they will run out of supplies and the abilty to actually fight before Ukraine. Because its takes them a lot less resources to defend then it does russia to attack, and time allows them to improve their defences and the russian army are disorganised and their morale is very questionable . Russian anti war movement could be a factor as well - but that will be shaped by what happens militarily. An attritional stalemate in a war that becomes increasingly unwinnable could see it snowball - and/or putin might be retiered/shot by his own cronies. hopefully before the cunt nukes kiev.

 

[Dystopiary]

I'll put this here rather than the Belarus thread for now because surely it's relevant to the war. Lukashenka has brought in amendments to the constitution today, so Belarus no longer has nuclear-free status.

Sorry for the alarmist(?) wording. What I mean by relevant is this is Putin's game, no doubt.

 

[Dystopiary]

He ain't a saint but IMO his view, deserves more than a filtered through the Guardian. The Immediate Challenge in Ukraine: Maximum Pressure Combined With Structured Negotiation




4 days in it.

His view deserves to be heard briefly, at the Hague, during his trial as a war criminal.

 

[Humberto]

A determined resistance with generous support against overwhelming military superiority, I don't think we are close to the end. I think the unjustifiable and pointless death will continue. In the meantime Russians will suffer at home and gradually bring the government to their senses.

 

[Kaka Tim]

A determined resistance with generous support against overwhelming military superiority, I don't think we are close to the end. I think the unjustifiable and pointless death will continue. In the meantime Russians will suffer at home and gradually bring the government to their senses.

The Russians haven't got overwhelming military superiority. Demonstrated by the fact that they are barely advancing and taking heavy losses in the process. Pounding cities to dust gains them nothing other than the enduring hatred of the people they are supposedly liberating.

 

[Humberto]

They can't use it.

 

[Humberto]

More troops, more weoponry, aerial control? Not superior?

 

[Ming]

depends if you win and can catch and prosecute

as it's always been don't remember anyone getting shot for the fire bombing of Dresden

General Curtis LeMay (head of the American air arm which dropped the atomic bombs) said out loud ’if we’d lost the war we’d have been prosecuted as war criminals’.

 

[bimble]

If it was London that was under attack I think all of our MPs would have legged it out of the country or at least out of the capital ages ago.

 

[kabbes]

General Curtis LeMay (head of the American air arm which dropped the atomic bombs) said out loud ’if we’d lost the war we’d have been prosecuted as war criminals’.

It wasn’t the dropping of atomic bombs that he said that about, just to set the record straight. It was the systematic napalm bombing of Tokyo.

 

[chilango]

Paul Mason gunning for chilango here

View attachment 314515

The dream is of course to make onto Dr Jordan Peterson's list of "Postmodern NeoMarxists".

(For the record, despite my tagline, I don't particularly like Althusser)

 

[smmudge]

Russian woman who stormed live TV in anti-war protest fined but could face jail

Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of state-controlled Channel One, interrupted a newsreader last night has spoken for the first time, saying she faced an intense 14-hour police interrogation

www.mirror.co.uk

Blimey, just a fine ATM, that's unexpected.

For now. I genuinely fear for her safety from now on.

There was a "disinformation analyst" on the telly just now, Maria Avdeeva, who reckons this was a Russian propaganda stunt to make it look like Putin is acting alone and doesn't have Russian support. She says the clues are in the fine she got rather than being in jail right now, and the poster was written for a Western audience.

She seemed to know what she was talking about and it does seem like the sort of thing the Russian state would do... but I'm trying to figure out why it would suit Russia to make the West think that Russian citizens don't support Putin?

Possibly if the west thinks that Russian citizens deep down already know the atrocities their state is committing, "we're" less likely to feel the need to reach out and try to communicate with them about it?

 

[bimble]

There was a "disinformation analyst" on the telly just now, Maria Avdeeva, who reckons this was a Russian propaganda stunt to make it look like Putin is acting alone and doesn't have Russian support. She says the clues are in the fine she got rather than being in jail right now, and the poster was written for a Western audience.

She seemed to know what she was talking about and it does seem like the sort of thing the Russian state would do... but I'm trying to figure out why it would suit Russia to make the West think that Russian citizens don't support Putin?

Possibly if the west thinks that Russian citizens deep down already know the atrocities their state is committing, "we're" less likely to feel the need to reach out and try to communicate with them about it?

yeah i am pretty sure this is bollocks, all the extremely clever twitter idiots were saying immediately that it was a fake, or it must be Putin behind it, but that makes zero sense.

 

[JimW]

the poster was written for a Western audience.

She had a mainly Russian sign with a couple of lines in English, as presumably working in the media she's savvy enough to know it would get picked up more widely. Her preparatory video was in Russian and slagged off the present regime in general as well as Putin in particular. Seems like a bit of stretch or more 4d chess woo.

 

[existentialist]

Why? It's an imperialist struggle over a large chunk of land, sure, but I'm sure you wouldn't deny that there are workers in Ukraine and workers in Russia and workers in all the other countries involved too.

What's that got to do with anything? I wouldn't deny that there were people with curly hair, brown eyes, maybe even the occasional lopsided smile in Ukraine and Russia. So what?

No, I don't. I think if you have reached a point where you believe that the only possible solution to an imperialist invasion is for other military powers to provide weapons, then you have given up on even believing that it is possible for workers to organise to stop wars.

That's quite understandable by the way. It's a bleak period we're living through.

But workers have ended wars before and may even do so again in the future.

We seem to be going around in circles here. Are you seriously suggesting that the West should have held back from supplying weapons to Ukraine to defend itself, so that the "workers" could "organise an end to the war"??

REALLY?

What are the special powers of these "workers" of which you speak? How do you propose that they are going to face down the current Russian aggression?

Either you are being extremely naive, or I am missing something very obvious. And I don't think I am.