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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

They can directly and indirectly cause a great deal of damage to the Russia militarily and state
Yes to all of your post, but i was just thinking today about how this ^ bit goes for the whole of 'the west'. Ukrainians are the ones actually fighting and dying and having their country bombed to bits obvs but they are not the only ones who stand to benefit from the steadily mounting damage to the Russian military & State, everyone who is providing weapons (whilst not being bombed) does, or at least they think they do.
 
Im not sure about "there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion" - Russia is having to grind it way forwards and taking heavy losses - they may only be able to sustain that level of warfare for a few months . Keiv isnt going to fall any time soon - they still haven't taken kharkiv which has been under assault since day one and they are nowhere near important cities like Lvov and odessa. Their best hope of forcing a urkanian surrender is to pound their cities into dust until they buckle - and unless they unleash massive chemical assaults and/or nukes Im not sure that is going to work. Lets hope to fuck that putin is stopped before it gets to that stage.

Do you honestly see a possibility for Ukraine to drive Russian troops out of the country?
 
This is, of course bollocks, NATO can offer a weapons, training, intelligence and other support, which is a hell of a lot without going to guaranteeing full mutual protection
individual NATO members can and may well do so, but probably not under the NATO brand.
 
There are lots of alternatives - I think it's dangerous to suggest that further militarisation is the only option.

I think the best chance of ending the war is probably mass protest in Russia itself, so more vocal and more practical support for Russian anti-war protesters would be a good option.
In the current context, I think "further militarisation" IS the only option. Remember that the weapons being supplied are being used, essentially, defensively - there is no danger of Ukraine deciding to invade (say) Belarus with the weapons we have given them and conducting an aggressive war, but I think it is only right and correct that we are supporting them to do everything they can to resist Russia's advance.
 
I'm not sure that's true, really. Definitely a long drawn out disastrous war is a very bad situation for Putin, the longer the body bags keep coming back to Russia and the sanctions keep biting, some people are definitely betting that it will weaken his grip on power. If 'the west' thought that Ukraine had no chance at all then why did they help them at all?

Curious bit here, on the Rand corporation website of all places. A 2019 piece about what are the various strategies that the US might try if they wanted to 'unbalance and overextend' Russia, and lethal weapons to Ukraine comes out top, along with sanctions, and encouraging young and educated Russians to leave the country. I think it's naive to think that every day this war continues is equally bad news for everyone.


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I think you are heavily underestimating the impact this situation is also having on Western companies, which is going to be a crucial consideration for the US government. Most of my time at the moment is being spent on extrapolating potential losses arising from the evolving situation, and the longer it goes on, the bigger those numbers get.
 
Just frex, you've got things like the immediate seizure of assets, like the trapped aircraft in Russia -- $12-$15bn of corporate assets poof gone. How much else do you suppose is gone? Make no mistake, this war is already costing the private sector at least hundreds of billions just in direct hits to its operations (notwithstanding that the arms industry is no doubt raking it in).

Politically, well, I just got off a call with our political and trade risk team and they are currently trying to evaluate the impact of scenarios in which Egypt and Tunisia are unable to buy grain, which is how the Arab spring kicked off last time, of similar food riots kicking off in Albania and of Liberia being unable to buy fuel. That's the immediate obvious contagion, let alone the stuff we have no idea where to draw the line on, and it totally ignores what happens if China get drawn into sanctions.

If this drags on, there might be some in the US military that wet their pants over Russia overextending itself, but nobody outside those rarified circles sees the West as winning as a result.
 
Just frex, you've got things like the immediate seizure of assets, like the trapped aircraft in Russia -- $12-$15bn of corporate assets poof gone. How much else do you suppose is gone? Make no mistake, this war is already costing the private sector at least hundreds of billions just in direct hits to its operations (notwithstanding that the arms industry is no doubt raking it in).

Politically, well, I just got off a call with our political and trade risk team and they are currently trying to evaluate the impact of scenarios in which Egypt and Tunisia are unable to buy grain, which is how the Arab spring kicked off last time, of similar food riots kicking off in Albania and of Liberia being unable to buy fuel. That's the immediate obvious contagion, let alone the stuff we have no idea where to draw the line on, and it totally ignores what happens if China get drawn into sanctions.

If this drags on, there might be some in the US military that wet their pants over Russia overextending itself, but nobody outside those rarified circles sees the West as winning as a result.

I liked your post despite you writing 'frex'.

Also on the trapped/leased aircraft thing...not quite 'poof' gone?

 
Yes to all of your post, but i was just thinking today about how this ^ bit goes for the whole of 'the west'. Ukrainians are the ones actually fighting and dying and having their country bombed to bits obvs but they are not the only ones who stand to benefit from the steadily mounting damage to the Russian military & State, everyone who is providing weapons (whilst not being bombed) does, or at least they think they do.
I'm sure someone will be benefiting from this. Sadly it will not be the average citizen in the NATO countries.
 
This is just the start. If there isn’t a negotiated settlement then the Russians will install a puppet authority (although I probably wouldn’t sell life insurance to people willing to do that). But that will only stay ‘in power’ while the Russians send soldiers into the meat grinder of a long long insurgency. It’s likely to be really horrible.

Can we please never use the phrase 'meat grinder'; I have a son and a daughter who have just the same value as human beings as any Russian or Ukrainian soldier. None of them, none of us, should be seen as subjects suitable for meat grinding, especially if their commanders have no such qualms. We don't need to use dehumanising language; there are more than enough people happy to do that.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
 
...Also on the trapped/leased aircraft thing...not quite 'poof' gone?


What I'm reading - and I'm not a civ air specialist so I don't know if the people I'm reading are talking shit - is that once the manufacturer support (Airbus and Boeing), the leasing/ownership chain, and the airworthiness certs gets pulled (Bermuda), then these aircraft are worthless, can never fly outside of Russian (Chinese?) airspace, can't be resold to any western operator, and probably can't be flown on by anyone with western travel insurance...

Theoretically, ever.

2hats Bahnhof Strasse pseudonarcissus ?
 
I liked your post despite you writing 'frex'.

Also on the trapped/leased aircraft thing...not quite 'poof' gone?

Lol yes, gone as far as the lessors are concerned. Not as far as the Russian state are.

(Then this means Russia will be flying inadequately maintained aeroplanes, which is a whole other problem)
 
What I'm reading - and I'm not a civ air specialist so I don't know if the people I'm reading are talking shit - is that once the manufacturer support (Airbus and Boeing), the leasing/ownership chain, and the airworthiness certs gets pulled (Bermuda), then these aircraft are worthless, can never fly outside of Russian (Chinese?) airspace, can't be resold to any western operator, and probably can't be flown on by anyone with western travel insurance...

Theoretically, ever.

2hats Bahnhof Strasse pseudonarcissus ?
It’s what happened previously in Iran, with predictable consequences for airline safety
 
Can we please never use the phrase 'meat grinder'; I have a son and a daughter who have just the same value as human beings as any Russian or Ukrainian soldier. None of them, none of us, should be seen as subjects suitable for meat grinding, especially if their commanders have no such qualms. We don't need to use dehumanising language; there are more than enough people happy to do that.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
TBF, I don't think the phrase necessarily dehumanises the people involved nearly as much as the activity does.

The reality is that, whatever language we use to describe it, urban warfare is about throwing people into the battle in the certain knowledge that a very significant percentage of them will be killed.

ETA: oh, and if you're dumb enough to send non-specialist conscripts into an urban fight, that certain knowledge is that they will ALL be killed. To very little, if any, effect beyond wasting a few bullets and/or Molotov cocktails.
 
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First Irish casualty. A cameraman / journalist.

Irish journalist Pierre Zakrzewski killed in Ukraine after vehicle hit by Russian shelling​

Taoiseach ‘deeply disturbed’ after death of Fox News cameraman outside Kyiv​

Updated: 5 minutes ago

Cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski (L) posing with colleagues at the Kyiv Intercontinental Hotel. Photo by -/FOX NEWS/AFP via Getty Images

Cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski (L) posing with colleagues at the Kyiv Intercontinental Hotel. Photo by -/FOX NEWS/AFP via Getty Images
An Irish journalist working as a Fox News cameraman, Pierre Zakrzewski, has been killed in Ukraine.
The veteran photographer (55) died after the vehicle he was travelling in with reporter Benjamin Hall was struck by incoming fire, the US broadcaster said.
The Taoiseach said he was: “Deeply disturbed and saddened by the killing of Irish citizen and journalist Pierre Zakrzewski and one of his colleagues today. My thoughts are with their families, friends and fellow journalists. We condemn this indiscriminate and immoral war by Russia on”.
 
Got this in my inbox today - from the White Helmets via Syria Campaign

This is a message of solidarity with Ukraine from Raed Al Saleh, the head of The White Helmets humanitarian volunteers. Today, on the 11th anniversary of the Syrian revolution, it drives home why a democratic Syria – free from dictatorship and tyranny – is part of a global cause that must prevail.

Dear ,

As Ukrainians come under brutal attack by Putin, it is chilling to see Russia using the same strategy and playbook in Ukraine as they use in Syria – attacking fleeing civilians, controlling humanitarian corridors, bombing hospitals and spreading disinformation.

Our volunteer first responders have saved more than 125,000 civilian lives in Syria since 2014, many from direct Russian attacks, and it’s heartbreaking to witness the same tragedies being repeated over and over again. We know the scale of horror that Russian bombings can inflict: no one and nothing is off limits.

In Syria, a concerted Russian disinformation campaign spreads fabricated claims attacking White Helmets volunteers to cover up war crimes. Now Russia is using the same methods to legitimize its attack on the Ukrainian people – using social media to sow doubt about atrocities committed against civilians.

When I saw the aftermath of Russian airstrikes on the maternity hospital in Mariupol last week, including Russia’s immediate disinformation efforts online, it was as if history was repeating itself.

We have witnessed these same horrific scenes and lies during attacks on Syrian hospitals. It angers me to see companies such as Twitter continue to allow accounts to spread falsehoods – and I urge you to join me in calling on Twitter to shut down all accounts, including Russian government accounts, being used to spread harmful disinformation.

A few days ago I spoke to the Washington Post and shared what we have learnt from our experience in case it can be of any help to our brothers and sisters in Ukraine. I told them that the GoPro camera is the best way to fight Russian disinformation and report the reality on the ground.

I also warned against sharing GPS locations of medical facilities with the United Nations. In Syria the Russians used that information to target hospitals. Ukrainians should also establish small medical and civil defense outposts in secret locations around the city to take the pressure off larger hospitals and mitigate the risk of targeting first responders.

There is no doubt Putin has been emboldened by the impunity he enjoyed in Syria. If Putin is not held accountable for his invasion of Ukraine the whole story will repeat itself again.

Today, we need actions not words from the international community. They must pursue justice relentlessly so no dictator can feel able to shamelessly commit such atrocities.

For the last seven years, the Syrian people have stood up to Russia and have yet to be defeated – so we believe Ukrainians can do so as well. At the end of the day, it is the will of the citizens that is the strongest weapon, even against the mightiest militaries in the world.

In solidarity,

Raed Al Saleh
 
The Russian foreign ministry has now announced they will withdraw from the Council of Europe.

That's the Council of Europe that suspended their representation about 3 weeks ago, but had left channels of communication open, which Russia has now closed down.
 
TBF, I don't think the phrase necessarily dehumanises the people involved nearly as much as the activity does.

The reality is that, whatever language we use to describe it, urban warfare is about throwing people into the battle in the certain knowledge that a very significant percentage of them will be killed.

ETA: oh, and if you're dumb enough to send non-specialist conscripts into an urban fight, that certain knowledge is that they will ALL be killed. To very little, if any, effect beyond wasting a few bullets and/or Molotov cocktails.
I think 'meat grinder' reduces people to burger patties. The only way out of this is to recognise each other as equals and act on that recognition.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
 
I notice on that news stream that the news editor who protested yesterday is covered further down the page.

At 4.21pm
Ms Ovsyannikova was fined 30,000 roubles (£280) after the court found her guilty of illegal protesting.

Then at 5.20pm
Speaking outside the court in Moscow, after being fined 30,000 roubles (£213), Ms Ovsyannikova said: “It was my anti-war decision. I made this decision by myself because I don’t like Russia starting this invasion. It was really terrible.

That's either some piss poor reporting or the sanctions really are working if the Rouble is depreciating at that rate :hmm:
 
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