Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

What exactly does demilitarisation entail?

Complete surrender to whatever demands the Russians come up with, forever.

 

[existentialist]

I'm scared they might have to.

I suppose that if Putin is successful in decapitating the Ukrainian state, the new puppet government may well agree to demilitarisation.

But Ukraine has a population of 40 million, and now has a LOT of small arms, and some very motivated people, who might just decide that they're not going to agree to demilitarisation. Yes, it will be awful - no insurgency is ever pretty, but I think Russia has so badly screwed the pooch here that they're guaranteed insurgency.

ETA: remember, Russia already tried this with them once, and I think it's fair to say that the Ukrainian people have had plenty of time both to object to Russia's antics, and learn what to do about them.

 

[Pickman's model]

I suppose that if Putin is successful in decapitating the Ukrainian state, the new puppet government may well agree to demilitarisation.

But Ukraine has a population of 40 million, and now has a LOT of small arms, and some very motivated people, who might just decide that they're not going to agree to demilitarisation. Yes, it will be awful - no insurgency is ever pretty, but I think Russia has so badly screwed the pooch here that they're guaranteed insurgency.

i think we've achieved consensus on this point

 

[Dogsauce]

my understanding is that Ukraine doesn't have much in the way of artillery and deploying it too enthusiastically would simply offer up juicy targets for the much bigger Russian artillery forces and air force. dont know how effective drones would be against their batteries - but does seem that Ukraine cant do much against them to protect their civilians

They don’t have that many drones, maybe a couple of dozen with more on the way, and I think each has four missiles from something I read the other day. They’re not going to waste this precious resource on everyday tanks and artillery pieces. It’s all about high-value targets (missile batteries, command posts, munitions and fuel convoys, communications and air defence equipment etc). I strongly suspect they are getting some very good help with target selection from western allies, hence the number of high level officers killed. Decapitation is great for creating confusion, panic and poor morale.

 

[existentialist]

They don’t have that many drones, maybe a couple of dozen with more on the way, and I think each has four missiles from something I read the other day. They’re not going to waste this precious resource on everyday tanks and artillery pieces. It’s all about high-value targets (missile batteries, command posts, munitions and fuel convoys, communications and air defence equipment etc). I strongly suspect they are getting some very good help with target selection from western allies, hence the number of high level officers killed. Decapitation is great for creating confusion, panic and poor morale.

The only high-value target I think you, ahahaha, missed, is senior commanders (although I suppose they may be found in the command posts)...

It does seem to me that they appear to have killed a surprising number of senior ranks, although maybe that's in proportion to the number of troops.

 

[Flavour]

what I can see Ukraine agreeing to: recognizing Crimea as Russia, recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk and independent (ensures Abkhazia/South Ossetia style situation whereby they are effectively Russia) ... but i can't see them agreeing to anything beyond that. and I can't see Putin spinning this as a victory if that is indeed all they achieve.

 

[Dogsauce]

Well details depends on the negotiations. But to give up and destroy weapons and agree to not build up your military beyond a certain point in terms of numbers and equipment.

But there is no fucking way Putin will keep to his end of the deal to not invade again if they do. A couple of years to rebuild and plan it a bit better and we will be right back here only with Ukraine much less equipped.

Yeah, Putin’s word isn’t worth shit, and if he re-invades who will have Ukraine’s back? Plus I can’t see sanctions disappearing under such a deal.

 

[Dogsauce]

what I can see Ukraine agreeing to: recognizing Crimea as Russia, recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk and independent (ensures Abkhazia/South Ossetia style situation whereby they are effectively Russia) ... but i can't see them agreeing to anything beyond that. and I can't see Putin spinning this as a victory if that is indeed all they achieve.

In that circumstance there would be Patriot missile batteries on the border in weeks, huge amounts of arms and training from the west. Unless he can somehow force demilitarisation (and I’m not sure how) all this war would have achieved is a more hostile and heavily armed neighbour. Anything less than total victory and grinding it all to dust more or less guarantees this.

 

[tim]

Information coming out of the occupied south is really grim, whilst the tv is telling people they’ve been liberated from nazis.

Terror and abductions as Russia tries to break Ukrainian resistance in Kherson and other occupied cities

Invading Russian forces have seized a second Ukrainian mayor, as well as the head of a regional council in Melitopol, and a civic activist organizing information self-defence in occupied Nova Kakhovka.

khpg.org

This is what’s apparently happened to one of the abducted mayors, a show trial.


Despite all this unarmed people continue to protest in the faces of occupying soldiers. It looks like the plan to install a puppet regime hasn’t been abandoned but I don’t see how it can work without occupying forces remaining indefinitely all over the huge country.

At least he'll gets kangaroo-trial, unlike the pro-Russian mayor abducted and murdered at the beginning of the month.

Pro-Russian mayor of Ukrainian city reportedly killed after being kidnapped from home

Volodymyr Struk, who was mayor of Kreminna since 2020, suffered a “gunshot wound to the heart” after being abducted.

www.google.com

 

[Dogsauce]

Regarding the flood of weapons into the country from the West, I saw a video a few days back of someone (reportedly Ukrainian) firing a MANPAD at an aircraft but not making the target. Someone else on Twitter then pointed out that the aircraft was a MIG-29, which only Ukraine is operating in this conflict. This highlights the danger of having lots of these hand-held munitions around and about with small units not necessarily in contact with command - quite a high risk of friendly fire. Not such a problem if it’s only Russia in the air though.

 

[cupid_stunt]

At least he'll gets kangaroo-trial, unlike the pro-Russian mayor abducted and murdered at the beginning of the month.

Pro-Russian mayor of Ukrainian city reportedly killed after being kidnapped from home

Volodymyr Struk, who was mayor of Kreminna since 2020, suffered a “gunshot wound to the heart” after being abducted.

www.google.com

According to your link, he did get a kangaroo-trial, “judged by the court of the people’s tribunal.”

 

[Supine]

Clearing out the Ukrainian military so that there is plenty of room for the Russian military .

Ukrainian farmers seem to be doing the opposite

 

[Pickman's model]

what I can see Ukraine agreeing to: recognizing Crimea as Russia, recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk and independent (ensures Abkhazia/South Ossetia style situation whereby they are effectively Russia) ... but i can't see them agreeing to anything beyond that. and I can't see Putin spinning this as a victory if that is indeed all they achieve.

i think putin would be a fool to get ukraine to recognise crimea as russian etc because the moment the border disputes stop being border disputes there is nothing standing in the way of ukraine joining nato. and the entire rationale for the war melts into air

 

[Raheem]

Demilitarization and guarantee to not join NATO? There is no fucking way Ukraine will agree to that and they're insane if they do

Yes, I don't think Ukraine will agree to demilitarise. Unless maybe it means capping their army at a billion or something. But what's notable is how rapidly Russia's demands have shrunk. A week ago, the demand was recognize Crimea and the "rebublics" and accept a puppet government. Now, it seems, one of the primary objectives of the war was education reform. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but it's possible that the Russian public is being prepared for a defeat sold as a victory.

 

[elbows]

Ukraine already indicated publicly that they were flexible with their position in regards joining NATO. The rest of the stuff such as demilitarisation is much harder to get a grip on due to a lack of detail, it could mean more than one thing in practice.

It does feel like things have moved on to another phase both in terms of negotiations and the immediate threat to Kyiv. I'm not going to pretend that I'm likely to get a handle on this stuff before it actually comes to fruition, there could be negotiation setbacks at any moment or a big breakthrough. It certainly feels like there is increasing impetus on both sides to reach a deal, but that still doesnt offer much certainty.

 

[Flavour]

Anything less than total victory and grinding it all to dust more or less guarantees this.

Hence why so many are already talking of this being a "defeat" for Russia, on the strategic level, though obviously in immediate material terms this is a much bigger defeat for Ukraine despite the State surviving

 

[tim]

According to your link, he did get a kangaroo-trial, “judged by the court of the people’s tribunal.”

True, I can't imagine in general that things are going to be pleasant for those taken prisoner on either side.

 

[emanymton]

In terms of the negotiations it is also possible Russia wants a ceasefire to buy some time to get their shit together and sort out their logistics.

 

[bimble]

Leaving aside the conspiracist angle, it just doesn’t make sense in terms of strategy. A drawn-out war is the worst outcome, not the best one. Economically, militarily, politically — a quagmire is not optimal for any of them

I'm not sure that's true, really. Definitely a long drawn out disastrous war is a very bad situation for Putin, the longer the body bags keep coming back to Russia and the sanctions keep biting, some people are definitely betting that it will weaken his grip on power. If 'the west' thought that Ukraine had no chance at all then why did they help them at all?

Curious bit here, on the Rand corporation website of all places. A 2019 piece about what are the various strategies that the US might try if they wanted to 'unbalance and overextend' Russia, and lethal weapons to Ukraine comes out top, along with sanctions, and encouraging young and educated Russians to leave the country. I think it's naive to think that every day this war continues is equally bad news for everyone.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm not sure that's true, really. Definitely a long drawn out disastrous war is a very bad situation for Putin, the longer the body bags keep coming back to Russia and the sanctions keep biting, some people are definitely betting that it will weaken his grip on power. If 'the west' thought that Ukraine had no chance at all then why did they help them at all?

among other reasons, because there are in so many wars two phases, the first phase of 'major operations' and the second phase of small war. however, as we have seen in afghanistan and iraq (not to mention in the iberian peninsula during the napoleonic wars) the people who win the first phase don't necessarily win the second.

 

[Pickman's model]

Ukraine already indicated publicly that they were flexible with their position in regards joining NATO. The rest of the stuff such as demilitarisation is much harder to get a grip on due to a lack of detail, it could mean more than one thing in practice.

It does feel like things have moved on to another phase both in terms of negotiations and the immediate threat to Kyiv. I'm not going to pretend that I'm likely to get a handle on this stuff before it actually comes to fruition, there could be negotiation setbacks at any moment or a big breakthrough. It certainly feels like there is increasing impetus on both sides to reach a deal, but that still doesnt offer much certainty.

i wonder how flexible they really will be when the fighting's over

 

[elbows]

i wonder how flexible they really will be when the fighting's over

Yeah agreeing to things when under the most extreme duress is not a reliable guide as to what positions will stick in the long term. But if pragmatism wins out over postures and ideals, I expect that whatever the outcome of this war and whatever form of peace is eventually achieved, the prospects of them actually getting in are further away than ever. I wouldnt bet on them ever getting in unless we eventually end up with a world where Russia gets into NATO too, and those sorts of scenarios will seem especially preposterous to talk about right now.

 

[SpackleFrog]

There are phases. What we're seeing at the moment is the invasion stage, but Russia is going to have to hold the ground it takes. The invasion stage, in some ways at least, is easy for an military relying on sheer brute force, but even they are liable to attacks on their logistics chain by smaller, lightly-armed forces.

The next phase is consolidation, and it's pretty obvious that one of the things they need to do there is seize control of large population centres, and that's where the asymmetry of this fight works in Ukraine's favour - you need a MASSIVELY overwhelming force to invade and neutralise cities, where small groups of "insurgents" can flit from building (or rubble pile) to building, picking off troops and vehicles before melting back into the background, rinse and repeat.

And then, if they can take the cities, they have to hold them, against what is obviously a well-motivated force which is likely to carry on fighting. Policing that, again, requires a lot of manpower.

So, no, Ukraine can't necessarily defeat the invasion as such, but can make it a costly and unproductive business for Russia to do anything with the invaded country.

I don't disagree with any of that. If Putin's goal is to occupy the misery will be never ending.

But my point was that, despite the talk about giving Ukraine everything they need to defeat the invasion, there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion. So I think we are agreed there. I suppose what I'm saying is that prolonging this phase will merely lead to more deaths.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't disagree with any of that. If Putin's goal is to occupy the misery will be never ending.

But my point was that, despite the talk about giving Ukraine everything they need to defeat the invasion, there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion. So I think we are agreed there. I suppose what I'm saying is that prolonging this phase will merely lead to more deaths.

they can always surrender. after all, they're the ones fighting, they can throw the towel in and no one here will think any the worse of them.

 

[bimble]

I suspect (on the basis of absolutely no military expertise) that military aid to Ukraine will only prolong the fighting, it won't be possible for Ukraine to defeat the invasion militarily.

Yeah if thats true then you have to ask why are they (the weapons senders) doing it, prolonging the fighting in an unwinnable war. The only answer i can come up with is to weaken Russia and the Russian regime.

 

[kebabking]

In terms of the negotiations it is also possible Russia wants a ceasefire to buy some time to get their shit together and sort out their logistics.

It's possible I suppose - I'm not sufficiently au fai with Russian domestic politics to know whether that's a runner - but (and I'm properly holding myself to fortune on this) I'm not sure that a hiatus to do a reset would help the Russian Army much - they've had about 17 years of sustained investment, during which they've bought lots of shiny things that look impressive driving through Red Square, but apparently done very little in terms of training, or of the boring stuff like logistics support, or getting ground and air forces to work together, or getting the air force to anything like western in levels of aircraft availability, or getting their comms sorted out.

A lot of the catastrophic fuckups that I'm seeing the Russians commit time and time again are about culture, not this or that problem or training deficiency, or something that can be fixed with this or that purchase - and the culture of an organisation isn't somey you can change in a week.

 

[existentialist]

I don't disagree with any of that. If Putin's goal is to occupy the misery will be never ending.

But my point was that, despite the talk about giving Ukraine everything they need to defeat the invasion, there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion. So I think we are agreed there. I suppose what I'm saying is that prolonging this phase will merely lead to more deaths.

But what is the alternative? Leaving them to twist in the wind?

 

[Pickman's model]

It's possible I suppose - I'm not sufficiently au fai with Russian domestic politics to know whether that's a runner - but (and I'm properly holding myself to fortune on this) I'm not sure that a hiatus to do a reset would help the Russian Army much - they've had about 17 years of sustained investment, during which they've bought lots of shiny things that look impressive driving through Red Square, but apparently done very little in terms of training, or of the boring stuff like logistics support, or getting ground and air forces to work together, or getting the air force to anything like western in levels of aircraft availability, or getting their comms sorted out.

A lot of the catastrophic fuckups that I'm seeing the Russians commit time and time again are about culture, not this or that problem or training deficiency, or something that can be fixed with this or that purchase - and the culture of an organisation isn't somey you can change in a week.

i suspect some rather large rockets have been placed under the arses of shoigu and gerasimov to get something done pronto

and i imagine rockets are also being put under analysts' arses in america, where the proficiency of the russian armed forces was rather overstated

 

[Bingoman]

In a video message Ukrainian President thinks that Russia maybe gaining on the capital?

 

[Pickman's model]

vz says ukraine must accept it will never be in nato Russia-Ukraine latest news: Ukraine must accept it will never be in Nato, says Volodymyr Zelensky