Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[A380]

Information coming out of the occupied south is really grim, whilst the tv is telling people they’ve been liberated from nazis.

Terror and abductions as Russia tries to break Ukrainian resistance in Kherson and other occupied cities

Invading Russian forces have seized a second Ukrainian mayor, as well as the head of a regional council in Melitopol, and a civic activist organizing information self-defence in occupied Nova Kakhovka.

khpg.org

This is what’s apparently happened to one of the abducted mayors, a show trial.


Despite all this unarmed people continue to protest in the faces of occupying soldiers. It looks like the plan to install a puppet regime hasn’t been abandoned but I don’t see how it can work without occupying forces remaining indefinitely all over the huge country.

This is just the start. If there isn’t a negotiated settlement then the Russians will install a puppet authority (although I probably wouldn’t sell life insurance to people willing to do that). But that will only stay ‘in power’ while the Russians send soldiers into the meat grinder of a long long insurgency. It’s likely to be really horrible.

 

[Nylock]

so you think they are doing everything they can short of direct intervention? Why not the planes then. And the day by day attrition of the Russian army looks like a big part of any possible eventual win, and also an unequivocal good for 'the west'.

Back when Poland publicly offered the migs and openly discussed the method of transfer, Russia stated quite categorically that they would view that as a major escalation and would consider Poland (and by extension NATO) as a belligerent in the war.

 

[existentialist]

This is a Ukrainian artillery piece

View attachment 314444

View attachment 314445


Artillery is big, like really big. Using great whopping shells that aren't always 100% accurate and it just eats through supplies like crazy.

Yeah, I suppose it's going to be difficult to co-locate artillery batteries in/around an encircled city, although AIUI, Ukraine does have - and is operating - some heavy artillery already.

 

[kabbes]

This might be conspiracy theory nonsense, i hope it is, but.. is it possible that America and its allies are deliberately sending Ukraine just enough of the kind of weaponry they need to hold the Russian army back but not to speed up an end to the war?
I mean dragging it out so that Russia's military grinds itself down losing men and machines and money day after day is a desired outcome from the point of view of 'the west', even if every day brings more Ukrainian kids under rubble. Its not like 'we' are doing everything possible is it, eg those planes.

Leaving aside the conspiracist angle, it just doesn’t make sense in terms of strategy. A drawn-out war is the worst outcome, not the best one. Economically, militarily, politically — a quagmire is not optimal for any of them

 

[Artaxerxes]

Yeah, I suppose it's going to be difficult to co-locate artillery batteries in/around an encircled city, although AIUI, Ukraine does have - and is operating - some heavy artillery already.

Ukraines best bet is to keep doing what its doing - drone strikes and punching the shit out of Russias logistics train. Thats going to involve civilian casualties but doing it directly erodes the artilleries ability to inflict damage even if they aren't taking out the artillery.

 

[SpackleFrog]

This might be conspiracy theory nonsense, i hope it is, but.. is it possible that America and its allies are deliberately sending Ukraine just enough of the kind of weaponry they need to hold the Russian army back but not to speed up an end to the war?
I mean dragging it out so that Russia's military grinds itself down losing men and machines and money day after day is a desired outcome from the point of view of 'the west', even if every day brings more Ukrainian kids under rubble. Its not like 'we' are doing everything possible is it, eg those planes.

Do you think it is possible that the West could send Ukraine enough weapons to end the war? Because I don't.

I suspect (on the basis of absolutely no military expertise) that military aid to Ukraine will only prolong the fighting, it won't be possible for Ukraine to defeat the invasion militarily.

 

[Indeliblelink]

Looks like Marina Ovsyannikova, the woman who did the protest on the Russian news, has been released, which is good, not so good she could be facing 5 to 10 years in prison.
She's also been put under house arrest.



ETA - seems this was a fake. She is still detained.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Bit of a techie question here, but what about counterbattery systems? It seems to me that Russia is relying quite heavily on major artillery attacks to devastate cities, which (hypothetically) good counter-battery support could help neutralise? Or does the logistics tail/complexity/training monster rear its ugly head there, too?

my understanding is that Ukraine doesn't have much in the way of artillery and deploying it too enthusiastically would simply offer up juicy targets for the much bigger Russian artillery forces and air force. dont know how effective drones would be against their batteries - but does seem that Ukraine cant do much against them to protect their civilians

 

[kebabking]

Bit of a techie question here, but what about counterbattery systems? It seems to me that Russia is relying quite heavily on major artillery attacks to devastate cities, which (hypothetically) good counter-battery support could help neutralise? Or does the logistics tail/complexity/training monster rear its ugly head there, too?

I'd say the existing loitering munitions are the tool for that - it's probably not as satisfying as Fire Mission Regiment and 32, 50 ton self propelled guns giving it 3 round bursts of good news, but given the Russian dependence on their command chain and the tendency to sit down and do nothing when that command chain gets holes knocked in it, it's probably at least as effective, and vastly easier to do.

 

[Flavour]

Yeah that's a bold move. Won't stop Russian shelling but you wouldn't want to be the Russian artillery commander who accidentally killed the PM of Poland would you

 

[existentialist]

Do you think it is possible that the West could send Ukraine enough weapons to end the war? Because I don't.

I suspect (on the basis of absolutely no military expertise) that military aid to Ukraine will only prolong the fighting, it won't be possible for Ukraine to defeat the invasion militarily.

There are phases. What we're seeing at the moment is the invasion stage, but Russia is going to have to hold the ground it takes. The invasion stage, in some ways at least, is easy for an military relying on sheer brute force, but even they are liable to attacks on their logistics chain by smaller, lightly-armed forces.

The next phase is consolidation, and it's pretty obvious that one of the things they need to do there is seize control of large population centres, and that's where the asymmetry of this fight works in Ukraine's favour - you need a MASSIVELY overwhelming force to invade and neutralise cities, where small groups of "insurgents" can flit from building (or rubble pile) to building, picking off troops and vehicles before melting back into the background, rinse and repeat.

And then, if they can take the cities, they have to hold them, against what is obviously a well-motivated force which is likely to carry on fighting. Policing that, again, requires a lot of manpower.

So, no, Ukraine can't necessarily defeat the invasion as such, but can make it a costly and unproductive business for Russia to do anything with the invaded country.

 

[existentialist]

I'd say the existing loitering munitions are the tool for that - it's probably not as satisfying as Fire Mission Regiment and 32, 50 ton self propelled guns giving it 3 round bursts of good news, but given the Russian dependence on their command chain and the tendency to sit down and do nothing when that command chain gets holes knocked in it, it's probably at least as effective, and vastly easier to do.

And if the command chain will insist on using mobile phones and unsecured radios, I guess radio DF is going to be a lot easier to do in any case

 

[bluescreen]

Looks like Marina Ovsyannikova, the woman who did the protest on the Russian news, has been released, which is good, not so good she could be facing 5 to 10 years in prison.
She's also been put under house arrest.

Stupid question I know, but how is she doing twitter? I thought it was blocked in Russia. If she's bypassing that, won't it attract more penalties? Not that she seems afraid to face that - a very brave woman.

 

[moochedit]

Stupid question I know, but how is she doing twitter? I thought it was blocked in Russia. If she's bypassing that, won't it attract more penalties? Not that she seems afraid to face that - a very brave woman.

Vpn.

 

[Indeliblelink]

Stupid question I know, but how is she doing twitter? I thought it was blocked in Russia. If she's bypassing that, won't it attract more penalties? Not that she seems afraid to face that - a very brave woman.

Good point, I don't know. I imagine it's not that hard to get around it or she could sending text messages to someone outside Russia who is tweeting on her behalf. I did ponder whether it was a fake account but although it is a recently set up one it was before the incident yesterday.

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you think it is possible that the West could send Ukraine enough weapons to end the war? Because I don't.

I suspect (on the basis of absolutely no military expertise) that military aid to Ukraine will only prolong the fighting, it won't be possible for Ukraine to defeat the invasion militarily.

i think there are three factors: 1) the quality of the russian plan and its execution; 2) the quality of the ukrainian response; 3) the volume of weaponry available to the ukrainians in the right place at the right time.

if the russian army had behaved as informed observers anticipated this would likely have been game over by now. but the russian plan as devised and certainly as executed has been strategically flawed and tactically inept: tactics being the way in which the strategy is worked towards on the ground. the volume of weaponry supplied to the ukrainians has as i say above certainly helped blunt the invasion. the fighting at the current level may go on for some time yet (some people say days, i suspect several weeks if not a month may be a better estimate). but time works in the ukrainians' favour as russian resupply is going to be rather slower than ukrainian resupply: for example, tass said in january 400 armoured vehicles would be delivered to the russian army this year, but thousands of anti-tank missiles have already been supplied to the ukrainians.

the fighting - had the russians performed as so many people thought - would continue for many months even if the russians won the major operations phase, and it still might if the conflict moves from being a conventional operation on the russians' part to being a counter-insurgency campaign. i can't see any way in which the russians can win a coin campaign, because (as so many counter-insurgency theorists point out) in a counter-insurgency campaign the people are the prize. i think it's fair to say that pretty much all the ukrainians have picked a side. and it's not russia.

 

[Callum91]

Oh come on the message of blank paper is clear. I'm not allowed to use the words no war. Yes the Russia state clamp down is fucking awful but standing there with a blank bit of paper means just as much as standing there with a bit of paper saying no war and they are clearly going to react on the same way. In fact blank bit of paper arguably has a more powerful symbolic meaning. Let's not pretend that arresting someone for holding a blank bit of paper is any more abssurd than arresting someone hiding a bit of paper saying no war.

I was referring to potential police justification for the arrest. Blank paper/white flag of surrender.

 

[Spymaster]

I'd say the existing loitering munitions are the tool for that ...

I was reading about loitering munitions last night. Sneaky shit. I particularly like that they can fly around an area looking for targets for a few hours and if they don't find anything to blow-up, come home al by themselves.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I was referring to potential police justification for the arrest. Blank paper/white flag of surrender.

Don't need one, they have the fake news law which covers whatever they decide it covers.

 

[frogwoman]

Vpn.

Yep

 

[Pickman's model]

I was referring to potential police justification for the arrest. Blank paper/white flag of surrender.

one of the problems of waving a blank piece of paper is that it is so easy to insert a subversive message of your choice onto a) the bit of paper, if seized, or another identical one, and b) onto any photos submitted to a court in evidence

 

[Callum91]

one of the problems of waving a blank piece of paper is that it is so easy to insert a subversive message of your choice onto a) the bit of paper, if seized, or another identical one, and b) onto any photos submitted to a court in evidence

Could say that of any bit of paper though. Not exactly hard to edit photos.

 

[kebabking]

I was reading about loitering munitions last night. Sneaky shit. I particularly like that they can fly around an area looking for targets for a few hours and if they don't find anything to blow-up, come home al by themselves.

We had a fantastic one called Fire Shadow - 100km range, then loiter for 5 hours or so. It was ready in 2011, so obviously we cancelled it...

 

[Pickman's model]

Could say that of any bit of paper though. Not exactly hard to edit photos.

it's much easier if you have a blank canvas.

 

[bluescreen]

Vpn.

Yes, I get that - but how is she even allowed near any internet tech under house arrest, as they must know about her potential for disruption?
Maybe this should be on the anti-war movement forum so I'll stop now.

 

[nogojones]

I was referring to potential police justification for the arrest. Blank paper/white flag of surrender.

It comes under the "nicked because we say so" law.

 

[nogojones]

Stupid question I know, but how is she doing twitter? I thought it was blocked in Russia. If she's bypassing that, won't it attract more penalties? Not that she seems afraid to face that - a very brave woman.

It's a fake account that changed its name.

 

[NoXion]

It's a fake account that changed its name.

How do you know this?

 

[Indeliblelink]

Good point, I don't know. I imagine it's not that hard to get around it or she could sending text messages to someone outside Russia who is tweeting on her behalf. I did ponder whether it was a fake account but although it is a recently set up one it was before the incident yesterday.

I see the account has now gone.

 

[nogojones]

How do you know this?

If you scroll down the tweets you'll see previous replies were to teh original name of @JuanArrendondo_