Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[dilute micro]

i think there are three factors: 1) the quality of the russian plan and its execution; 2) the quality of the ukrainian response; 3) the volume of weaponry available to the ukrainians in the right place at the right time.

if the russian army had behaved as informed observers anticipated this would likely have been game over by now. but the russian plan as devised and certainly as executed has been strategically flawed and tactically inept: tactics being the way in which the strategy is worked towards on the ground. the volume of weaponry supplied to the ukrainians has as i say above certainly helped blunt the invasion. the fighting at the current level may go on for some time yet (some people say days, i suspect several weeks if not a month may be a better estimate). but time works in the ukrainians' favour as russian resupply is going to be rather slower than ukrainian resupply: for example, tass said in january 400 armoured vehicles would be delivered to the russian army this year, but thousands of anti-tank missiles have already been supplied to the ukrainians.

the fighting - had the russians performed as so many people thought - would continue for many months even if the russians won the major operations phase, and it still might if the conflict moves from being a conventional operation on the russians' part to being a counter-insurgency campaign. i can't see any way in which the russians can win a coin campaign, because (as so many counter-insurgency theorists point out) in a counter-insurgency campaign the people are the prize. i think it's fair to say that pretty much all the ukrainians have picked a side. and it's not russia.

I suspect the people at the highest level whose job it is to keep tabs on Russian military may not have been as surprised at Russia's ineptitude in the field as we are. Lack of training with combined units matters. There's no way around it. I just wouldn't hazard a guess at how bad they might have thought the Russians would be.

And then on the other end, I'm very surprised at the Ukrainians given how unimpressive they seemed in the last 8 years. They are literally writing the book on warfare like this on such a grand scale with anti-tank and drones. Theories are being fleshed out.

 

[Indeliblelink]

It's a fake account that changed its name.

Can you change the @ name after you've set it up?

 

[nogojones]

Can you change the @ name after you've set it up?

I believe so, but TBH I know fuck all about twitter as I see it as a cesspit and try to avoid it if I can

 

[Indeliblelink]

OK apologies if fake I did check and see it started 9th March using @MarinaOvsy so thought it was real. Didn't know you could change the @ bit of your twitter name.

 

[existentialist]

I suspect the people at the highest level whose job it is to keep tabs on Russian military may not have been as surprised at Russia's ineptitude in the field as we are. Lack of training with combined units matters. There's no way around it. I just wouldn't hazard a guess at how bad they might have thought the Russians would be.

And then on the other end, I'm very surprised at the Ukrainians given how unimpressive they seemed in the last 8 years. They are literally writing the book on warfare like this on such a grand scale with anti-tank and drones. Theories are being fleshed out.

I don't think Ukraine's apparently sudden development of fighting skills is accidental, or even new. There have been a lot of Western training teams in Ukraine since 2014, working with the Ukrainian army on developing small-unit skills that are very different from traditional Soviet doctrine, and which we're seeing being used in innovative and creative ways now.

 

[Pickman's model]

I suspect the people at the highest level whose job it is to keep tabs on Russian military may not have been as surprised at Russia's ineptitude in the field as we are. Lack of training with combined units matters. There's no way around it. I just wouldn't hazard a guess at how bad they might have thought the Russians would be.

And then on the other end, I'm very surprised at the Ukrainians given how unimpressive they seemed in the last 8 years. They are literally writing the book on warfare like this on such a grand scale with anti-tank and drones. Theories are being fleshed out.

frankly i am sure there are very competent units in the russian army. but where they seem to have come unstuck this time is by simply not following their own doctrine, by not using their core forces, their own rules - for example, sending conscripts in when they are supposed to be kept in ancillary roles only while fighting is done by the volunteer contractors. they don't appear to done their reconnaissance in force (see eg this pdf https://mcoepublic.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/earmor/2018/winter-spring/2Grau18.pdf for what they should have been doing). given the way the entire thing seems to have been fucked up, i am surprised that neither gerasimov (valery, not vitaly) nor shoigu has reconsidered their position. and after the experience in syria and in the war between armenia and azerbaijan where drones played such a prominent role, i am surprised the russians don't seem to have deployed drones of their own or developed any effective countermeasures to drones.

 

[eoin_k]

bimble, another factor in NATO calculations about which shiny new toys to send to Ukraine is the risk of them falling into Russian hands and not wanting to allow any reverse engineering to occur on them.

 

[nogojones]

Didn't know you could change the @ bit of your twitter name.

I didn't either til a mate told me yesterday

 

[dilute micro]

I don't think Ukraine's apparently sudden development of fighting skills is accidental, or even new. There have been a lot of Western training teams in Ukraine since 2014, working with the Ukrainian army on developing small-unit skills that are very different from traditional Soviet doctrine, and which we're seeing being used in innovative and creative ways now.

True that. Although implementation of this is Ukrainian. And it speaks to their impressive unity. Hopefully someday we'll hear stories. I'll buy every book.

 

[dilute micro]

frankly i am sure there are very competent units in the russian army. but where they seem to have come unstuck this time is by simply not following their own doctrine, by not using their core forces, their own rules - for example, sending conscripts in when they are supposed to be kept in ancillary roles only while fighting is done by the volunteer contractors. they don't appear to done their reconnaissance in force (see eg this pdf https://mcoepublic.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/earmor/2018/winter-spring/2Grau18.pdf for what they should have been doing). given the way the entire thing seems to have been fucked up, i am surprised that neither gerasimov (valery, not vitaly) nor shoigu has reconsidered their position. and after the experience in syria and in the war between armenia and azerbaijan where drones played such a prominent role, i am surprised the russians don't seem to have deployed drones of their own or developed any effective countermeasures to drones.

Do you think the conscripts were due to an optimistic 3 day campaign?

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you think the conscripts were due to an optimistic 3 day campaign?

that would be my guess, that they weren't expecting a shooting war. which beggars belief and suggests there's something rotten in the state of russian military intelligence. i mean, you don't need secret sources to know that there were would be at least some opposition to a russian army entering ukraine. that some preparation for such would have been made during the troop build-up along the border. and that it would be prudent to send in strong, combat-ready units, not conscripts who might not even look that good on the parade ground.

 

[zahir]

If you scroll down the tweets you'll see previous replies were to teh original name of @JuanArrendondo_

This is Juan Arredondo (which doesn't explain anything).

 

[A380]

I was referring to potential police justification for the arrest. Blank paper/white flag of surrender.

It’s an authoritarian state with barely any rule of law. So, unlike here, dibble don’t even need to make up a reason they are breaking any laws. Also it’s unlikely any ‘evidence’ will be tested in court to any real degree.

That’s kind of the point.

 

[frogwoman]

It's fake. Nobody knows where she is. Very worrying

 

[A380]

I was reading about loitering munitions last night. Sneaky shit. I particularly like that they can fly around an area looking for targets for a few hours and if they don't find anything to blow-up, come home al by themselves.

Sadly they can cost very little to make in cash terms. The Ukrainians might deploy them in a few months, but let’s hope not.

 

[A380]

that would be my guess, that they weren't expecting a shooting war. which beggars belief and suggests there's something rotten in the state of russian military intelligence. i mean, you don't need secret sources to know that there were would be at least some opposition to a russian army entering ukraine. that some preparation for such would have been made during the troop build-up along the border. and that it would be prudent to send in strong, combat-ready units, not conscripts who might not even look that good on the parade ground.

Or an intelligence service that only tells those in power what they want to hear. Even changing reports that don’t fit the narrative required.

Thank god that could never happen here.

 

[existentialist]

I was referring to potential police justification for the arrest. Blank paper/white flag of surrender.

It's even more than that, although it still doesn't quite allay the ludicrousness of someone being arrested for holding up a blank placard.

It's a thing from the Soviet days:

 

[A380]

.

 

[Pickman's model]

.

good point well made

 

[A380]

good point well made

Stop it.

 

[Raheem]

Lavrov has given a press conference/speech this morning outlining Russia's objectives for negotiations. Demilitarisation of Ukraine. An end to its policy of Nazification. Education reform to end discrimination against Russian speakers. It seems there was no mention of territorial claims. Maybe a deal is not too far away.

 

[emanymton]

Apart form them asking Ukraine to stop doing things it isn't doing.

And the demilitarisation which on the one hand Ukraine would be mad to agree to as it just sets them up for another more successful invasion down the line. But on the other hand they may not really have a choice.

 

[dilute micro]

What exactly does demilitarisation entail?

 

[Pickman's model]

What exactly does demilitarisation entail?

it's like when the tardis disappears in dr who

 

[Flavour]

Demilitarization and guarantee to not join NATO? There is no fucking way Ukraine will agree to that and they're insane if they do

 

[Dogsauce]

It comes under the "nicked because we say so" law.

I believe the U.K. equivalent is ‘Action liable to cause a breach of the peace’. I’ve known people nicked for just turning up somewhere or arrested in transit.

 

[existentialist]

What exactly does demilitarisation entail?

Clearing out the Ukrainian military so that there is plenty of room for the Russian military .

 

[Pickman's model]

I believe the U.K. equivalent is ‘Action liable to cause a breach of the peace’. I’ve known people nicked for just turning up somewhere or arrested in transit.

to prevent a breach of the peace

 

[emanymton]

What exactly does demilitarisation entail?

Well details depends on the negotiations. But to give up and destroy weapons and agree to not build up your military beyond a certain point in terms of numbers and equipment.

But there is no fucking way Putin will keep to his end of the deal to not invade again if they do. A couple of years to rebuild and plan it a bit better and we will be right back here only with Ukraine much less equipped.

 

[emanymton]

Demilitarization and guarantee to not join NATO? There is no fucking way Ukraine will agree to that and they're insane if they do

I'm scared they might have to.