Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[elbows]

vz says ukraine must accept it will never be in nato Russia-Ukraine latest news: Ukraine must accept it will never be in Nato, says Volodymyr Zelensky

Yes, a further slight evolution of their rhetoric on NATO membership compared to their stance a week earlier which I will quote for comparison. The Monday in question was Monday 7th March.

In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership

President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.

www.france24.com

"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview aired Monday night on ABC News.

"The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia," the president added.

Referring to NATO membership, Zelensky said through an interpreter that he does not want to be president of a "country which is begging something on its knees."

 

[existentialist]

In a video message Ukrainian President thinks that Russia maybe gaining on the capital?

That won't be a surprise to many - Russia absolutely HAS to seize Kyiv, ideally reasonably intact, to have some semblance of having achieved their goals.

 

[Cid]

vz says ukraine must accept it will never be in nato Russia-Ukraine latest news: Ukraine must accept it will never be in Nato, says Volodymyr Zelensky

I think this kind of statement is as much him NATO-trolling as anything else.

 

[elbows]

I think this kind of statement is as much him NATO-trolling as anything else.

Sort of, its certainly a way of saving face on this issue when they concede to that demand from Russia - NATO too afraid to act against Russia so whats the point trying to join them sort of thing.

 

[skyscraper101]

Ukraine will virtually be in NATO in all but name with the levels of Western military backing it will be seeing in years to come. Russia meanwhile will remain the most sanctioned country on earth with a seriously declining economy as long as Vlad sticks around.

 

[Bingoman]

A Fox news cameraman has been killed after been stuck by Incoming fire outside the Capital Kyiv

 

[emanymton]

Yeah if thats true then you have to ask why are they (the weapons senders) doing it, prolonging the fighting in an unwinnable war. The only answer i can come up with is to weaken Russia and the Russian regime.

Winning and losing are not binary states. In one sense Ukraine lost day one as it is their cities being bombed. It is also unlikely they can win a war outright. They can make it so Russia fails to achieve all of their objectives which will be a defeat for Russia. They can directly and indirectly cause a great deal of damage to the Russia militarily and state which is also a defeat for Russia.

No one ever wins a war in my opinion, everyone losses, but one side losses more. And while in pure numbers game that is likely to be Ukraine. It is possible That Ukraine could achieve more of their objectives than Russia, and in that sense win the war.

 

[emanymton]

Yeah if thats true then you have to ask why are they (the weapons senders) doing it, prolonging the fighting in an unwinnable war. The only answer i can come up with is to weaken Russia and the Russian regime.

Winning and losing are not binary states. In one sense Ukraine lost day one as it is their cities being bombed. It is also unlikely they can win a war outright. They can make it so Russia fails to achieve all of their objectives which will be a defeat for Russia. They can directly and indirectly cause a great deal of damage to the Russia militarily and state which is also a defeat for Russia.

No one ever wins a war in my opinion, everyone losses, but one side losses more. And while in pure numbers game that is likely to be Ukraine. It is possible That Ukraine could achieve more of their objectives than Russia, and in that sense win the war.

 

[Cid]

Sort of, its certainly a way of saving face on this issue when they concede to that demand from Russia - NATO too afraid to act against Russia so whats the point trying to join them sort of thing.

That's an inevitable outcome of a negotiated peace (at least as it stands today, obviously this is really a day by day thing). I mean much of what he does is trying to push nato's hand wrt aid, potential other actions etc.

 

[NoXion]

A Fox news cameraman has been killed after been stuck by Incoming fire outside the Capital Kyiv

Surprised that they have anyone actually out there, isn't that dangerously close to real journalism?

 

[Pickman's model]

Surprised that they have anyone actually out there, isn't that dangerously close to real journalism?

dangerously too close in this instance

 

[Cid]

I find nato's flexing on the military side kind of odd... I mean obviously there is a very good argument for increasing missile defence and associated air and naval stuff. But Russia seems to have demonstrated that it would be pretty fucked in a conventional conflict. Surely the better argument is for a major rethink of defence requirements, focusing much more on expanding said missile defence assets. Though of course that may be exactly what's implied, just doesn't come through the filter of media etc.

Also e.g Germany doubling its defence budget, iirc from around 50bn to 100bn euro... Maybe... look at spending that on reconfiguring energy infrastructure and protecting workers who might lose employment with that change?

 

[zahir]

A Fox news cameraman has been killed after been stuck by Incoming fire outside the Capital Kyiv

 

[tim]

Ukraine will virtually be in NATO in all but name with the levels of Western military backing it will be seeing in years to come. Russia meanwhile will remain the most sanctioned country on earth with a seriously declining economy as long as Vlad sticks around.

If Ukraine is not in NATO by name, it won't be in NATO at all. It won't have the guarantee of mutual protection, which is all the NATO has to offer.

As to Russia as long as it has resources to sell that others want, and excess amounts of money to launder and grease the palms of friends, things will soon get back to normal. Our rulers are generally fairly forgiving of the misdemeanors of their peers.

 

[dilute micro]

I don't disagree with any of that. If Putin's goal is to occupy the misery will be never ending.

But my point was that, despite the talk about giving Ukraine everything they need to defeat the invasion, there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion. So I think we are agreed there. I suppose what I'm saying is that prolonging this phase will merely lead to more deaths.

Not true. Russia can't do this forever. They possibly can be defeated in the 1st phase, and also in the insurgency to follow. Holding on to Ukraine will be a nightmare for Moscow. Armies are meant for fighting. They're not good for policing.

 

[elbows]

I know the 'Ukraine still calling for a no fly zone' stuff has been done to death on this thread, but I still find myself wondering if the future evolution of this rhetoric could also end up being used to frame a repositioning as part of a peace deal with Russia in future. I'm not going to run any distance with that possibility now, and its probably still just part of pressuring the west to do more and expressing fruatration, but I'll keep an eye on it.

More now from President Zelensky's live address before Canadian MPs, where he's asking them to imagine what they would do if Canada was in Ukraine's situation.

"Can you imagine calling other friendly nations, and asking them 'please close the sky, close the air space. stop the bombing'".

"And in turn they express their deep concerns about the situation. We talk to our partners and they say 'please hold on a little longer'".

The Ukrainian president described the situation as dire, "but it's allowed us to see who our true friends are these past 20 days".

Based on the last 20 days who would they even end up considering to be true friends?

Quote is from the 15:50 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60746557

 

[Kaka Tim]

I don't disagree with any of that. If Putin's goal is to occupy the misery will be never ending.

But my point was that, despite the talk about giving Ukraine everything they need to defeat the invasion, there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion. So I think we are agreed there. I suppose what I'm saying is that prolonging this phase will merely lead to more deaths.

Im not sure about "there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion" - Russia is having to grind it way forwards and taking heavy losses - they may only be able to sustain that level of warfare for a few months . Keiv isnt going to fall any time soon - they still haven't taken kharkiv which has been under assault since day one and they are nowhere near important cities like Lvov and odessa. Their best hope of forcing a urkanian surrender is to pound their cities into dust until they buckle - and unless they unleash massive chemical assaults and/or nukes Im not sure that is going to work. Lets hope to fuck that putin is stopped before it gets to that stage.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If Ukraine is not in NATO by name, it won't be in NATO at all. It won't have the guarantee of mutual protection, which is all the NATO has to offer.

This is, of course bollocks, NATO can offer a weapons, training, intelligence and other support, which is a hell of a lot without going to guaranteeing full mutual protection

 

[elbows]

Im not sure about "there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion" - Russia is having to grind it way forwards and taking heavy losses - they may only be able to sustain that level of warfare for a few months . Keiv isnt going to fall any time soon - they still haven't taken kharkiv which has been under assault since day one and they are nowhere near important cities like Lvov and odessa. Their best hope of forcing a urkanian surrender is to pound their cities into dust until they buckle - and unless they unleash massive chemical assaults and/or nukes Im not sure that is going to work. Lets hope to fuck that putin is stopped before it gets to that stage.

The BBC started to frame things as the battle for Kyiv as of last Friday, and today Kyiv is back to a situation which has similarities with the first days of the war, where dire warnings are issued about very difficult moments ahead, and a long curfew looms.

The recent deaths of journalists also happened very close indeed to Kyiv.

Kyiv to impose 35-hour curfew amid fresh Russian attacks

The curfew comes as Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

Russian woman who stormed live TV in anti-war protest fined but could face jail

Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of state-controlled Channel One, interrupted a newsreader last night has spoken for the first time, saying she faced an intense 14-hour police interrogation

www.mirror.co.uk

Blimey, just a fine ATM, that's unexpected.

 

[strung out]

Im not sure about "there is no way that Ukraine can defeat the invasion" - Russia is having to grind it way forwards and taking heavy losses - they may only be able to sustain that level of warfare for a few months . Keiv isnt going to fall any time soon - they still haven't taken kharkiv which has been under assault since day one and they are nowhere near important cities like Lvov and odessa. Their best hope of forcing a urkanian surrender is to pound their cities into dust until they buckle - and unless they unleash massive chemical assaults and/or nukes Im not sure that is going to work. Lets hope to fuck that putin is stopped before it gets to that stage.

Yes, I've found this guy really interesting on this point and how much longer Russia can realistically continue this at current levels of attrition. They already have less than 90% of their initial forces available to them. Once it drops to 75%, then their ability to run a coherent military operation drops substantially. That's before you even get onto their problems with logistics, particularly resupply of ammunition etc.

 

[skyscraper101]

Russian woman who stormed live TV in anti-war protest fined but could face jail

Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of state-controlled Channel One, interrupted a newsreader last night has spoken for the first time, saying she faced an intense 14-hour police interrogation

www.mirror.co.uk

Blimey, just a fine ATM, that's unexpected.

For now. I genuinely fear for her safety from now on.

 

[_Russ_]

Russian woman who stormed live TV in anti-war protest fined but could face jail

Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of state-controlled Channel One, interrupted a newsreader last night has spoken for the first time, saying she faced an intense 14-hour police interrogation

www.mirror.co.uk

Blimey, just a fine ATM, that's unexpected.

Its just a PR exercise..an opportunity for the Kremlin to appear reasonable.
As soon as her name fades from worldwide attention she'll be in deep shit

 

[Pickman's model]

Its just a PR exercise..an opportunity for the Kremlin to appear reasonable.
As soon as her name fades from worldwide attention she'll be in deep shit

You have an example of just this happening before I'm sure

 

[emanymton]

Winning and losing are not binary states. In one sense Ukraine lost day one as it is their cities being bombed. It is also unlikely they can win a war outright. They can make it so Russia fails to achieve all of their objectives which will be a defeat for Russia. They can directly and indirectly cause a great deal of damage to the Russia militarily and state which is also a defeat for Russia.

No one ever wins a war in my opinion, everyone losses, but one side losses more. And while in pure numbers game that is likely to be Ukraine. It is possible That Ukraine could achieve more of their objectives than Russia, and in that sense win the war.

Sorry just noticed this double posted, it only showed one earlier. This is what I get for posting from the toilets at work.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sorry just noticed this double posted, it only showed one earlier. This is what I get for posting from the toilets at work.

No shit

 

[nogojones]

A Fox news cameraman has been killed after been stuck by Incoming fire outside the Capital Kyiv

What will Tucker say?

 

[SpackleFrog]

they can always surrender. after all, they're the ones fighting, they can throw the towel in and no one here will think any the worse of them.

I didn't say they couldn't, though I suspect that it will take a lot more fighting before Ukrainians surrender en masse.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yeah if thats true then you have to ask why are they (the weapons senders) doing it, prolonging the fighting in an unwinnable war. The only answer i can come up with is to weaken Russia and the Russian regime.

I'm not sure there is definitely a strategy as clear as that. But yes, that's a possibility, that some policy makes will think that the longer it goes on, the more damage to the Russian army. Presumably they will be more interested in the effect on Putin domestically though and the war weariness of the Russian population.

 

[SpackleFrog]

But what is the alternative? Leaving them to twist in the wind?

There are lots of alternatives - I think it's dangerous to suggest that further militarisation is the only option.

I think the best chance of ending the war is probably mass protest in Russia itself, so more vocal and more practical support for Russian anti-war protesters would be a good option.