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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

bimble said:
Yes to all of your post, but i was just thinking today about how this ^ bit goes for the whole of 'the west'. Ukrainians are the ones actually fighting and dying and having their country bombed to bits obvs but they are not the only ones who stand to benefit from the steadily mounting damage to the Russian military & State, everyone who is providing weapons (whilst not being bombed) does, or at least they think they do.
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It does but there is a huge cost economically which in tern will effect the citizens of those nation states. It's not like the west is getting a benefit at the Ukrainians Expense, they're bankrolling the war and now funding it's aftermath. This war is costing all of us. Every time a country commits millions of spondoolies that money is taken away from social funding projects at home. There's no magic porridge pot in operation here.
 
friedaweed said:
It does but there is a huge cost economically which in tern will effect the citizens of those nation states. It's not like the west is getting a benefit at the Ukrainians Expense, they're bankrolling the war and now funding it's aftermath. This war is costing all of us. Every time a country commits millions of spondoolies that money is taken away from social funding projects at home. There's no magic porridge pot in operation here.
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I'm not suggesting its cost free, not at all. And it's risky as well as expensive.
But it does have advantages for 'the west', not for people like you & me but on a political balance of powers type way of thinking, they can sit and watch Russia weakening itself daily in exactly the ways they were looking for (economically militarily & internally) through their absolute cockup of a war.
I think you could say, in that particular way, that The West is benefitting at Ukrainians expense. The readiness to chuck this help into the hands of Ukrainians definitely includes a large dollop of my enemies enemy imo anyway.
 
bimble said:
I'm not suggesting its cost free, not at all. And it's risky as well as expensive.
But it does have advantages for 'the west', not for people like you & me but on a political balance of powers type way of thinking, they can sit and watch Russia weakening itself daily in exactly the ways they were looking for (economically militarily & internally) through their absolute cockup of a war.
I think you could say, in that particular way, that The West is benefitting at Ukrainians expense. The readiness to chuck this help into the hands of Ukrainians definitely includes a large dollop of my enemies enemy imo anyway.
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How does "the west" benefit from Russia being economically fucked to pieces?
 
elbows said:
The BBC started to frame things as the battle for Kyiv as of last Friday, and today Kyiv is back to a situation which has similarities with the first days of the war, where dire warnings are issued about very difficult moments ahead, and a long curfew looms.

The recent deaths of journalists also happened very close indeed to Kyiv.

www.aljazeera.com

Kyiv to impose 35-hour curfew amid fresh Russian attacks

The curfew comes as Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
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The journalists were killed in Irpin (well, just outside it), which has been contested ground for more than a week. It was also artillery fire. Of course Russian forces are advancing, but it's slow. What they seem to be doing is moving gradually south on the west side of Kyiv, presumably so they can cut off routes of resupply. They haven't done that yet, and every day they don't is another day of stockpiling and reinforcing defensive positions. The defensive lines to the north of Kyiv effectively follow the Irpin river, they have yet to move beyond that. On the east they need to take Brovary, which is a town of 100,000 people. Kyiv Oblast is 28,000sqkm (a bit less than 1.5 Waleses), a huge area, and they'll be trying to control that with what? 100,000 men maybe?

This is obviously very armchair general, and somewhat uncomfortable, but the point is that there doesn't seem to be much evidence of things happening quickly. Of course that may be completely wrong, but really it seems to track with what the more knowledgable twitter types are saying. And within that it does make it more apparent that holding Kyiv and forcing Russia into a very difficult siege probably has some sound strategic basis beyond its obvious importance as the capital. Just... also very grim.
 
Spymaster said:
How does "the west" benefit from Russia being economically fucked to pieces?
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i dont really know tbh ( & am stirring noodles )but these guys thought sanctions and arming Ukraine would be good ways to weaken Russia, years before the invasion happed.
www.rand.org

Nonviolent Ways the United States Could Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities

Despite its vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a formidable opponent in a few key domains. What non-violent, cost-imposing measures could the United States pursue to stress Russia's economy, its military, and the regime's political standing at home and abroad?
www.rand.org www.rand.org
 
bimble said:
i do. Not tomorrow though, the US army was in Afghanistan for a generation wasn't it, same sort of time before they gave up and left Vietnam.
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I don't think Afghanistan is quite the same though, the invading US army weren't defeated militarily as such, they just gave up trying to continue the occupation.


Vietnam does show that is possible to repel an invading army, undoubtedly, but we shouldn't forget that this was largely a guerilla style conflict, not what is happening now, and required vast amounts of Soviet/PRC military support.

I would instinctively question whether Ukrainians could replicate what the Viet Cong/Viet Minh did but that's more because of how determined their resistance was more than anything else.
 
existentialist said:
In the current context, I think "further militarisation" IS the only option. Remember that the weapons being supplied are being used, essentially, defensively - there is no danger of Ukraine deciding to invade (say) Belarus with the weapons we have given them and conducting an aggressive war, but I think it is only right and correct that we are supporting them to do everything they can to resist Russia's advance.
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I can understand why you would feel there is no alternative. But I think that's not only wrong, it's an abandonment of class politics.
 
friedaweed said:
This war is costing all of us. Every time a country commits millions of spondoolies that money is taken away from social funding projects at home. There's no magic porridge pot in operation here.
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There’s a $300 billion porridge pot in the form of Russian state money currently frozen in the Western banking system. It wouldn’t seem unreasonable to use some of that for rebuilding Ukraine.
 
Dogsauce said:
There’s a $300 billion porridge pot in the form of Russian state money currently frozen in the Western banking system. It wouldn’t seem unreasonable to use some of that for rebuilding Ukraine.
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Plus a whole fuckload of mad vlads money
 
Dogsauce said:
There’s a $300 billion porridge pot in the form of Russian state money currently frozen in the Western banking system. It wouldn’t seem unreasonable to use some of that for rebuilding Ukraine.
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There's going to be a lot of lolly spent on legal battles before that gets released though isn't there? Be nice if that provided a solution to the rebuilding of Ukraine though :)
 
Interesting piece about Cold Response 2022, a NATO exercise with 30000 troops from multiple countries that's just started in Norway. It was planned before the war and is carried out every two years. A Russian battleship is heading out that way to keep an eye on things and to do a bit of muscle flexing.

thebarentsobserver.com

Russian Navy announces firing west of NATO Arctic exercise

Russia’s biggest warship, the nuclear-powered battle cruiser “Pyotr Veliky” and the destroyer “Severomorsk” are sailing towards the activated warning zone halfway between northern Norway and Iceland.
thebarentsobserver.com thebarentsobserver.com

1647376835431.png
The Russian activated NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) danger area is west of Lofoten archipelago and outside the main exercise area of NATO’s Cold Response. The danger alert does not indicate what kind of weapons will be used in what is marked as “firing area.”
“This is pretty standard Northern Fleet behavior,” noted Kristian Åtland, a researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.
“The deployment of large surface vessels to the Norwegian Sea is presumably to demonstrate presence and to observe the Cold Response exercise,” he added.
Åtland does not think the warning area would interfere with, or create complications for, the Norwegian-led exercise which is still in its early stages.
“There may, of course, come more Russian NOTAM warnings and shows of force later in the month, at sea as well as in the air. But we should not be overly concerned about this,” he says.
“This is all part of Russia’s signaling behavior in the northern waters.”
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Louis MacNeice said:
I think 'meat grinder' reduces people to burger patties. The only way out of this is to recognise each other as equals and act on that recognition.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
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it does, but the machine still is there, having been a potential pattie in the past I get where you are coming from but I think the term is more of a damning of those pressing the switch on it then anything else.
 
SpackleFrog said:
Do you honestly see a possibility for Ukraine to drive Russian troops out of the country?
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If they they are fought to a standstill and no longer able to carry out offensive operations - then there is no point in them sitting on and holding all the land they have captured between all the major urban centres - which would have to be supplied and policed and defended. They may try and keep the bits they want to claim in the east - but that's about it.
 
Indeliblelink said:
Interesting piece about Cold Response 2022, a NATO exercise with 30000 troops from multiple countries that's just started in Norway. It was planned before the war and is carried out every two years. A Russian battleship is heading out that way to keep an eye on things and to do a bit of muscle flexing.

thebarentsobserver.com

Russian Navy announces firing west of NATO Arctic exercise

Russia’s biggest warship, the nuclear-powered battle cruiser “Pyotr Veliky” and the destroyer “Severomorsk” are sailing towards the activated warning zone halfway between northern Norway and Iceland.
thebarentsobserver.com thebarentsobserver.com

View attachment 314537
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NATO should send a tug out to troll them.
 
SpackleFrog said:
I can understand why you would feel there is no alternative. But I think that's not only wrong, it's an abandonment of class politics.
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OK, well, if you are viewing an essentially capitalistic struggle over a large chunk of land in the middle of Europe through the prism of class politics, I think I can see why our perspectives might differ very fundamentally.
 
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