Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Callum91
Let them eat cock
I know it's blank paper but...perhaps they would justify it by saying it was a ''white flag''? Like... ''Russia, surrender.''? Absolutely depressing as fuck to see this shit happen to people, though
bimble
floofy
Information coming out of the occupied south is really grim, whilst the tv is telling people they’ve been liberated from nazis.
This is what’s apparently happened to one of the abducted mayors, a show trial.
Despite all this unarmed people continue to protest in the faces of occupying soldiers. It looks like the plan to install a puppet regime hasn’t been abandoned but I don’t see how it can work without occupying forces remaining indefinitely all over the huge country.
Terror and abductions as Russia tries to break Ukrainian resistance in Kherson and other occupied cities
Invading Russian forces have seized a second Ukrainian mayor, as well as the head of a regional council in Melitopol, and a civic activist organizing information self-defence in occupied Nova Kakhovka.
khpg.org
This is what’s apparently happened to one of the abducted mayors, a show trial.
Despite all this unarmed people continue to protest in the faces of occupying soldiers. It looks like the plan to install a puppet regime hasn’t been abandoned but I don’t see how it can work without occupying forces remaining indefinitely all over the huge country.
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nogojones
spelling is overrated
It's just clamp down on anything. They're scared that any form of protest might take root.I know it's blank paper but...perhaps they would justify it by saying it was a ''white flag''? Like... ''Russia, surrender.''? Absolutely depressing as fuck to see this shit happen to people, though
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Although no details have been released about yesterday's peace talks, Zelenskyy has said they appear to have gone well, and will continue today, so I guess that offers a little bit of hope. 
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Oh come on the message of blank paper is clear. I'm not allowed to use the words no war. Yes the Russia state clamp down is fucking awful but standing there with a blank bit of paper means just as much as standing there with a bit of paper saying no war and they are clearly going to react on the same way. In fact blank bit of paper arguably has a more powerful symbolic meaning. Let's not pretend that arresting someone for holding a blank bit of paper is any more abssurd than arresting someone hiding a bit of paper saying no war.I know it's blank paper but...perhaps they would justify it by saying it was a ''white flag''? Like... ''Russia, surrender.''? Absolutely depressing as fuck to see this shit happen to people, though
bimble
floofy
Russia has asked China to send food for the army, this says. That’s not a sign of the war going brilliantly for them is it.
www.cnn.com
China has expressed some openness to providing military and financial aid to Russia, US cable suggests
The US has information suggesting China has expressed some openness to providing Russia with requested military and financial assistance as part of its war on Ukraine, a Western official and a US diplomat told CNN, and is conveying what it knows to its NATO allies.
www.cnn.com
bimble
floofy
The blank piece of paper protest is brilliantly eloquent yes.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Are the protesters viewed as just some crazy kids by the rest of Russia?
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Russia has asked China to send food for the army, this says. That’s not a sign of the war going brilliantly for them is it.
China has expressed some openness to providing military and financial aid to Russia, US cable suggests
The US has information suggesting China has expressed some openness to providing Russia with requested military and financial assistance as part of its war on Ukraine, a Western official and a US diplomat told CNN, and is conveying what it knows to its NATO allies.
Is that what this is about?
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Russian forces dont seem to have advanced much in 2 weeks and they are now bussing in syrian mercenaries. The grim battering of Ukranian cities continues - but to no discernible military effect other than fuelling yet more hate for Russia. Kharkiv - right on the border and under relentless assault since day 1 - it still not in russian hands and Kiev looks no closer to being encircled than it did a week ago. There was talk of Odessa being assaulted - but nothing has happened on that front.
All out Warfare being conducted on this scale, with these numbers of troops and equipment cant be sustainable for a prolonged period for an attacking army whilst the ukranians will fight like fuck - IMO this is looking more and more like a defeat for Russia. A Ukrainian advisor was sating that the Russians would not be albe to carry on for more than three months and the war could be over by may. Anyone got any decent analysis on this?
Some reasons for hope I guess - the russian anti war movement is still there and being vocal, clear signs of unhappiness from within the regime (i.e that leaked stuff from the FSB, former foreign minister speaking out, guests on russian tv going off script), sanctions biting - all hinges on how far putin is allowed to go by his own side.
ETA - the no fly zone. threat of WW3 and nuclear Armageddon aside - how much help would this be? My understanding was that most of the battering is coming from artillery and rocket attacks and the Russian air force has not been playing a major role.
All out Warfare being conducted on this scale, with these numbers of troops and equipment cant be sustainable for a prolonged period for an attacking army whilst the ukranians will fight like fuck - IMO this is looking more and more like a defeat for Russia. A Ukrainian advisor was sating that the Russians would not be albe to carry on for more than three months and the war could be over by may. Anyone got any decent analysis on this?
Some reasons for hope I guess - the russian anti war movement is still there and being vocal, clear signs of unhappiness from within the regime (i.e that leaked stuff from the FSB, former foreign minister speaking out, guests on russian tv going off script), sanctions biting - all hinges on how far putin is allowed to go by his own side.
ETA - the no fly zone. threat of WW3 and nuclear Armageddon aside - how much help would this be? My understanding was that most of the battering is coming from artillery and rocket attacks and the Russian air force has not been playing a major role.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Not a pretty picture, basically they have just resorted to chucking shells at cities and hoping this will lead to some capitulation through negotiations:
bimble
floofy
This might be conspiracy theory nonsense, i hope it is, but.. is it possible that America and its allies are deliberately sending Ukraine just enough of the kind of weaponry they need to hold the Russian army back but not to speed up an end to the war?
I mean dragging it out so that Russia's military grinds itself down losing men and machines and money day after day is a desired outcome from the point of view of 'the west', even if every day brings more Ukrainian kids under rubble. Its not like 'we' are doing everything possible is it, eg those planes.
I mean dragging it out so that Russia's military grinds itself down losing men and machines and money day after day is a desired outcome from the point of view of 'the west', even if every day brings more Ukrainian kids under rubble. Its not like 'we' are doing everything possible is it, eg those planes.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Blimey, these leaders are brave. 
dilute micro
esse quam videri
There's no way to put your finger on how much military aid is just enough. Only a fraction of these weapons make it to the field and to the right place. Once they get into Ukraine it all becomes a matted mess. Although I have to say I'm surprised at what a smart war the Ukrainians have been fighting. They were more planned than I gave them credit for.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Yes. It’s nonsense.
bimble
floofy
so you think they are doing everything they can short of direct intervention? Why not the planes then. And the day by day attrition of the Russian army looks like a big part of any possible eventual win, and also an unequivocal good for 'the west'.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
For the reasons already stated.
steveseagull
Well-Known Member
Nuclear war etc
Cid
Proper break this time
The last 5+ years they have also been full on shit with their diplomacy. The flat-out racist 'China initiative' didn't help either.
bimble
floofy
This guy, former US ambassador to NATO, agrees with me that there's not really any difference, lethal weapons is lethal weapons.
"“My sense is, I don’t see a big difference between Javelins and Stingers and air defense systems, and sending MiGs,” he told Vox. “I don’t buy the notion that [sending fighter jets] is escalatory. [Putin] believes anything we do is escalatory."
"Why the US scrapped Polish plans to give Ukraine fighter jets
But anyway, there's other stuff that's not planes that they want and that would help but that they're not being given. Letting the Russian army get decimated bit by bit does seem to be the plan.
"“My sense is, I don’t see a big difference between Javelins and Stingers and air defense systems, and sending MiGs,” he told Vox. “I don’t buy the notion that [sending fighter jets] is escalatory. [Putin] believes anything we do is escalatory."
"Why the US scrapped Polish plans to give Ukraine fighter jets
But anyway, there's other stuff that's not planes that they want and that would help but that they're not being given. Letting the Russian army get decimated bit by bit does seem to be the plan.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
don't we have a speculation thread for things like this?
think it through - please. according to What is the military power of the Russian army and how strong is the Ukrainian army? the russian army has 12,500 tanks, although many of them no doubt mothballed. the uk has sent 3,615 nlaw anti-tank missiles plus some javelin missiles, and other countries have no doubt sent similar munitions. the usa have sent a great load of stinger missiles, too. this has certainly helped to blunt the russian offensive, and more weaponry appears to be on the way.
so the ukrainians have been equipped with a significant amount of weapons to target armoured vehicles and aircraft, plus they will have had some stuff of their own before.
what you suggest is that nato countries have got together and calculated the volume of weaponry needed to hold the russians in stalemate. this would be a ludicrous and time-consuming thing to do, and would rely on giving the russians an initial free hand so that the assessment could actually be done.
rather than posting things like this on this thread, you can indulge yourself to your heart's content on the speculation thread where posts like yours are actively welcomed.
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Possibly.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Blimey, these leaders are brave.
Poor of the Guardian to not know the difference between Slovakia and Slovenia.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I am sure they're not deliberately sending Ukraine more military aid than they need, but I think the idea that they might be carefully and cynically calibrating the amount to be just enough is unfeasible and unlikely. In many ways, I'd have thought that the more overwhelming the defeat they could inflict on Russia, the better.
If nothing else, it would increase the risk of Russia succeeding in overwhelming Ukraine, which is going to create a lot more difficulties outside Ukraine as well.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think ambassadors - even ones to NATO - tend not to understand logistics and training.
The higher end stuff that Ukraine is asking for - the planes, the medium to high altitude SAM's - require a significant logistics tail, one that would have to be seated within NATO, and not stuff that could be taken over the border in a minibus.
The MIGs have all been updated to use NATO communications systems, as well as stuff like radar warning recievers, jamming gear and nav equipment.
The reason the Ukrainians are being so successful is that they are - broadly - not fighting pitched tank battles or artillery duels with the Russians, they are not offering the Russian Air Force great big juicy targets to see and then strike.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
TBF, they did correct their error soon after I posted it.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Bit of a techie question here, but what about counterbattery systems? It seems to me that Russia is relying quite heavily on major artillery attacks to devastate cities, which (hypothetically) good counter-battery support could help neutralise? Or does the logistics tail/complexity/training monster rear its ugly head there, too?
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
This is a Ukrainian artillery piece
Artillery is big, like really big. Using great whopping shells that aren't always 100% accurate and it just eats through supplies like crazy.
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