Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

And, how do you know that?

I said, in my opinion.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I said, in my opinion.

OK, so how do you arrive at your conclusion, when no one else seems to know WTF was/is his plan?

 

[Raheem]

He set out to turn it into a client state, with a puppet government, without need to occupy. That’s very unlikely to happen. A totally different outcome that he’s willing to declare as a victory would be great.

I expect the newly-liberated republic will request substantial help with its security.

 

[tim]

If any of the Urban armchair generals are going to South London drinks tonight, let's hope there's a table twice as long as Putin's to enable them with the help of glasses, beer-mats and crisps to outline their personal takes on how this conflict will unfold on the ground from now on.

 

[xenon]

He still says he hasn't

It's darkly hilarious that he considers sanctions s akin to an act of war whereas all that invading with thousands of soldiers, tanks and bombing stuff he's doing, somehow isn't..

 

[bimble]

OK, so how do you arrive at your conclusion, when no one else seems to know WTF was/is his plan?

Haruspicy.

 

[Spymaster]

Haruspicy.

Everyone just Googled that

 

[xenon]

I don't know - Russian dictators have form for getting the hump with Int people who tell them unwelcome truths, particularly when proven right...

Just as likely that it's Putin making clear what he wants FSB and SVR to find, they find it, and when things turn out differently he blames them.

That's certainly the inference in the articles relating to this. That the intel of the on the ground situation in Ukraine was probably pretty good. (How could it not be, it's only next door with loads of Russians and Russian speakers.) But no one wanted to tell Putin that yeah, there's not actually going to be crowds of grateful thousands throwing flowers at parading Russian soldiers...

Actually I do wonder about this having written that. How the fuck can he have been so out of touch himself. I know the Scotland comparison is a bit lazy and not quite right but it would be like a British leader thinking the Scots would love the English to go and liberate them. Presumably he could pick up Ukrainian media at any point before all this even if ordinary Russians couldn't and see for himself.

 

[JimW]

Everyone just Googled that

Not me, I remembered she was the one joined after Geri left.

 

[Pickman's model]

By your own words, odds are good that you're one of them "mugs". It's self-defeating nonsense.

Sure he's posting in his cups

 

[bimble]

i think i understand why Biden said that thing again, about defending every inch of nato territory, and immediately afterwards we got the news that Russia sees weapons convoys heading to Ukraine as legitimate targets.

A few days ago there was this:

'Some in the U.S. intelligence community fear that Moscow might try to cut off the flow of arms going into Ukraine, either with airstrikes or with long-range artillery. The weapons coming from the West are unloaded in border countries, such as Poland, and then shipped by land..

"Stoltenberg said there's a clear distinction between supply lines within Ukraine and those operating outside its borders."There is a war going on in Ukraine and, of course, supply lines inside Ukraine can be attacked," he said."An attack on NATO territory, on NATO forces, NATO capabilities, that would be an attack on NATO."

"https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-stoltenberg-nato-1.6377675

so its trying to warn him off from doing the thing they have reason to believe he's considering, ie attacking those inches of Poland where the weapons are getting moved around.

in that context Biden's tweet makes perfect sense.

 

[two sheds]

That's certainly the inference in the articles relating to this. That the intel of the on the ground situation in Ukraine was probably pretty good. (How could it not be, it's only next door with loads of Russians and Russian speakers.) But no one wanted to tell Putin that yeah, there's not actually going to be crowds of grateful thousands throwing flowers at parading Russian soldiers...

Actually I do wonder about this having written that. How the fuck can he have been so out of touch himself. I know the Scotland comparison is a bit lazy and not quite right but it would be like a British leader thinking the Scots would love the English to go and liberate them. Presumably he could pick up Ukrainian media at any point before all this even if ordinary Russians couldn't and see for himself.

Might have convinced himself that the place was stuffed with Nazis so the rest of the population would welcome Russia?

 

[Mr Moose]

That's certainly the inference in the articles relating to this. That the intel of the on the ground situation in Ukraine was probably pretty good. (How could it not be, it's only next door with loads of Russians and Russian speakers.) But no one wanted to tell Putin that yeah, there's not actually going to be crowds of grateful thousands throwing flowers at parading Russian soldiers...

Actually I do wonder about this having written that. How the fuck can he have been so out of touch himself. I know the Scotland comparison is a bit lazy and not quite right but it would be like a British leader thinking the Scots would love the English to go and liberate them. Presumably he could pick up Ukrainian media at any point before all this even if ordinary Russians couldn't and see for himself.

It’s been a show of power from the off, with the Russian State enjoying using that power, for example by the pre-invasion shithousery (‘nonsense’ that they were about to invade etc.)

The destruction isn’t an accident of a poorly planned campaign. The end goal is the complete degradation of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself or even really function as an independent state outside of the Moscow sphere of influence and to project to the World the power of the Russian State, lest it have any doubts.

What hasn’t gone to plan is that it’s suffering big losses and looking less powerful as a result.

 

[Diamond]

Syrian mercenaries are arriving in Ukraine to fight for the Russians. This is in addition to the Kadyrovite Chechen forces that are already fighting there. Neither are like to be very Islamist (the Chechens may look it but not really), however it is worth pointing out that there are people in the Muslim world who would take the view that the territory of Ukraine (and large parts of Russia, for that matter) is properly Muslim territory. It was occupied for many centuries during the middle ages by the Golden Horde, an Islamic Mongol successor state.

The prompt for this was seeing a snippet of an Iraqi political commentator make pretty much exactly this argument (Ukraine should be part of the Caliphate) on a supposedly popular Iraqi politics show (looked a bit like newsnight).

If this really is a "big" historical event then, like all revolutions, wars etc that are worth their salt, we'll end up in a wildly different place than anyone intended at the outset. In this part of the world, it wouldn't be completely insane if an unexpected outcome might be some kind of religious conflict in the wider Pontic/Black Sea zone.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

Yep. I shot a load of clays at the club on Thursday

Well if there's a Prize Cockring Club no doubt you're a full member.

 

[Spymaster]

Well if there's a Prize Cockring Club no doubt you're a full member.

Positively throbbing

 

[tim]

.

Syrian mercenaries are arriving in Ukraine to fight for the Russians. This is in addition to the Kadyrovite Chechen forces that are already fighting there. Neither are like to be very Islamist (the Chechens may look it but not really), however it is worth pointing out that there are people in the Muslim world who would take the view that the territory of Ukraine (and large parts of Russia, for that matter) is properly Muslim territory. It was occupied for many centuries during the middle ages by the Golden Horde, an Islamic Mongol successor state.

The prompt for this was seeing a snippet of an Iraqi political commentator make pretty much exactly this argument (Ukraine should be part of the Caliphate) on a supposedly popular Iraqi politics show (looked a bit like newsnight).

If this really is a "big" historical event then, like all revolutions, wars etc that are worth their salt, we'll end up in a wildly different place than anyone intended at the outset. In this part of the world, it wouldn't be completely insane if an unexpected outcome might be some kind of religious conflict in the wider Pontic/Black Sea zone.

Just like the way that the British use of Gurkha mercenaries over the past two centuries has spread Hinduism across the Globe

 

[Pickman's model]

Well if there's a Prize Cockring Club no doubt you're a full member.

He is the chairman

 

[Pickman's model]

Syrian mercenaries are arriving in Ukraine to fight for the Russians. This is in addition to the Kadyrovite Chechen forces that are already fighting there. Neither are like to be very Islamist (the Chechens may look it but not really), however it is worth pointing out that there are people in the Muslim world who would take the view that the territory of Ukraine (and large parts of Russia, for that matter) is properly Muslim territory. It was occupied for many centuries during the middle ages by the Golden Horde, an Islamic Mongol successor state.

The prompt for this was seeing a snippet of an Iraqi political commentator make pretty much exactly this argument (Ukraine should be part of the Caliphate) on a supposedly popular Iraqi politics show (looked a bit like newsnight).

If this really is a "big" historical event then, like all revolutions, wars etc that are worth their salt, we'll end up in a wildly different place than anyone intended at the outset. In this part of the world, it wouldn't be completely insane if an unexpected outcome might be some kind of religious conflict in the wider Pontic/Black Sea zone.

If we're looking for things that should be part of the caliphate then Malta, Sicily and indeed a fair amount of Italy plus France up to tours and south eastern Europe up to Hungary certainly and possibly as far as vienna

 

[Mr Moose]

As I said, I think it's a mistake to side with any ruling class.

As a principle, that’s very fine. Doesn’t stop anyone justifiably deploring a ruling class or even taking sides in a conflict between them. How would you have applied this principle have applied in WW2?

 

[Spymaster]

He is the chairman

Honorary, for life.

 

[dilute micro]

Syrian mercenaries are arriving in Ukraine

I imagine the Syrians are going to be treated like shit by the Russians, little food etc. And the Syrians will take it out on the Ukrainians. Part of the plan.

 

[emanymton]

The threats Putin is making to arms shipments. What are the chances that will work and NATO countries will cut off suply?
kebabking any thoughts?

Sorry if I Missed a discussion on this already. Have struggled to keep up with the thread today and quickly skimmed a lot and missed other bits.

 

[RD2003]

By your own words, odds are good that you're one of them "mugs". It's self-defeating nonsense.

We're all taken for mugs by our rulers.

 

[NoXion]

We're all taken for mugs by our rulers.

So what?

 

[Raheem]

Some of us are also taken for mugs by other people's rulers.

 

[Sprocket.]

He is the chairman

Ringleader at least!

 

[NoXion]

What a day to be slightly red-green colour blind. I almost mixed these two posters up.

 

[kebabking]

The threats Putin is making to arms shipments. What are the chances that will work and NATO countries will cut off suply?
kebabking any thoughts?

Sorry if I Missed a discussion on this already. Have struggled to keep up with the thread today and quickly skimmed a lot and missed other bits.

The broad concesus is that it's a nothing - the language used deliberately avoids saying that supplies/convoys headed to Ukraine, but currently within NATO territory, are fair game, and if that's what they meant, they would have said it.

I don't know anyone who thinks that convoys within Ukraine aren't fair game, but that's been the case since day one.

It's to get European and US media flapping, knowing as they do that most of twitter prefer to panic than to read, and spend more than a second thinking before reacting.

Of course, it's possible they do mean something different. The 'Putin would never' thing is looking a bit threadbare...

 

[Ax^]

Raheem spouts less Russian propoganda if that helps