Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[elbows]

Whatever happened to SDI / Star Wars? Shouldn't have spent the 90s and 2000s and 2010s pissing about. Fucking Trump was the one to restart the program. Would sure feel nice knowing that the chances of nuclear bombs actually hitting their targets and exploding was reduced even by 70%.

Nothing less than a 100% success rate would give me any confidence, otherwise I dont think it really changes the equations which ensure the madness of MAD works in its own weird way.

As I understand it the 1980s rhetoric about star wars was more about trying to bankrupt opponents via a new arms race, about justifying funding for the military industrial complex, and about other forms of rhetoric, propaganda and willy waving. The technology was not up to the job at the time. Frank Zappa even wrote a song about it....

Star Wars won't work
Star Wars won't work
Star Wars won't work
Star Wars won't work
Star Wars won't work
Star Wars won't work

The gas still gets through
It can get right on you
And what about those germs now?
Star Wars won't work
It's a piece of shit
Why are they even talkin' about it anymore?
It's just an expensive bunch of nothing

As the decades go by ideas about the militarisation of space have not gone away, and I would not be surprised if the world wakes up one day to find that a new dimension of death from above is in place. But whether that actually results in a change to the balance of power, what is possible, who can dominate and how safe people are is highly questionable. I certainly dont look in that direction when searching for things that make the average person safer, quite the opposite.

 

[teqniq]

Saw news of this on Twitter earlier:

Ukraine accuses Russian forces of kidnapping the mayor of Melitopol

Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is trying to ‘physically liquidate representatives of Ukraine’s lawful local authorities’

www.independent.co.uk

and now:

 

[DaveCinzano]

Frank Zappa even wrote a song about it....

Doesn't even rhyme, the lunatic!

 

[Bingoman]

Reuters news agency is reporting that Russian are planning to create a new breakaway region in kherson?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Reuters news agency is reporting that Russian are planning to create a new breakaway region in kherson?

Apparently they are planning to conduct a “pseudo referendum” in Kherson.

This would sit with the plan to create a land corridor linking Donbas & Crimea.

 

[Dogsauce]

Assuming that the Russians do meet a military setback bad enough to make even Putin accept that he has to pull back then what about sanctions? After what he's done is the West really going to say 'OK Vlad you can keep the extra bits of Ukraine that you have grabbed and we will just go back to how things were before?'
I suspect that in that case, sanctions will stay until there is regime change in Russia

Yeah, was thinking the same earlier, much of those sanctions aren’t going anywhere, although I suspect oil and gas stuff might resume out of necessity/laziness in seeking alternatives. Pressure will maintain until Russia fucks off out of there properly.

They need to ramp up the sanctions to max pain in the short term if they want pressure on the leadership. Heroic videos aside, Russia is slowly winning this war and there isn’t much that can be done militarily to unwind that, just stall things and hope for the palace coup I guess.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yeah, was thinking the same earlier, much of those sanctions aren’t going anywhere, although I suspect oil and gas stuff might resume out of necessity/laziness in seeking alternatives. Pressure will maintain until Russia fucks off out of there properly.

And, come up with reparations for Ukraine.

 

[strung out]

Yeah, was thinking the same earlier, much of those sanctions aren’t going anywhere, although I suspect oil and gas stuff might resume out of necessity/laziness in seeking alternatives. Pressure will maintain until Russia fucks off out of there properly.

They need to ramp up the sanctions to max pain in the short term if they want pressure on the leadership. Heroic videos aside, Russia is slowly winning this war and there isn’t much that can be done militarily to unwind that, just stall things and hope for the palace coup I guess.

There's a good argument to say Russia is slowly losing it, but yeah.

 

[existentialist]

Yeah, was thinking the same earlier, much of those sanctions aren’t going anywhere, although I suspect oil and gas stuff might resume out of necessity/laziness in seeking alternatives. Pressure will maintain until Russia fucks off out of there properly.

They need to ramp up the sanctions to max pain in the short term if they want pressure on the leadership. Heroic videos aside, Russia is slowly winning this war and there isn’t much that can be done militarily to unwind that, just stall things and hope for the palace coup I guess.

Yes, Russia is slowly winning the war, but it is notable that they have so far swerved doing the hard yards - they might be taking ground and surrounding cities, but if they are going to prevail, they are going to have to take those cities. It's a bit of a given that urban warfare tends to be a bit of a meat grinder, and they're going to be fighting a well dug-in and determined opponent, arguably with troops the majority of whom do not appear to be particularly motivated, or even capable. Sure, they can use their SF people, but they're in limited supply.

And, so long as Ukraine can delay capitulation as far as possible, the sanctions have time to bite, attrition of personnel, materiel, and morale can continue.

One option Russia might consider is attacking a single city pour encourager les autres with heavy weapons - thermobarics, or some NBC weapon, perhaps a tactical nuke - but not only might that increase Ukrainian resolve, it might well lead to an escalation of involvement from the West who could at that point decide that they can no longer hold back in the face of Putin's nuclear threat. And, presumably, they want Ukraine reasonably intact, rather than scorched earth...although that priority might shift as they get more desperate.

 

[xenon]

Saw news of this on Twitter earlier:

Ukraine accuses Russian forces of kidnapping the mayor of Melitopol

Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is trying to ‘physically liquidate representatives of Ukraine’s lawful local authorities’

www.independent.co.uk

and now:

Jesus. And if I recall from on here, he's a Russian speaker and from a relatively pro Russian party.

 

[Dogsauce]

One option Russia might consider is attacking a single city pour encourager les autres with heavy weapons - thermobarics, or some NBC weapon, perhaps a tactical nuke - but not only might that increase Ukrainian resolve, it might well lead to an escalation of involvement from the West who could at that point decide that they can no longer hold back in the face of Putin's nuclear threat. And, presumably, they want Ukraine reasonably intact, rather than scorched earth...although that priority might shift as they get more desperate.

I think a tactical nuke is unlikely because that would turn the international pariah dial up to 11, I would think places like China might start to frown at their neighbour in such circumstances.

 

[existentialist]

I think a tactical nuke is unlikely because that would turn the international pariah dial up to 11, I would think places like China might start to frown at their neighbour in such circumstances.

Given the level of Putin's hubris thus far, I think a combination of that and desperation might be enough to make him think it would be worth a go.

 

[bimble]

People saying that ‘Russia is winning the war’ have to define what having won it will look like. The gov of Ukraine announcing surrender?

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Yes, Russia is slowly winning the war, but it is notable that they have so far swerved doing the hard yards - they might be taking ground and surrounding cities, but if they are going to prevail, they are going to have to take those cities. It's a bit of a given that urban warfare tends to be a bit of a meat grinder, and they're going to be fighting a well dug-in and determined opponent, arguably with troops the majority of whom do not appear to be particularly motivated, or even capable. Sure, they can use their SF people, but they're in limited supply.

And, so long as Ukraine can delay capitulation as far as possible, the sanctions have time to bite, attrition of personnel, materiel, and morale can continue.

One option Russia might consider is attacking a single city pour encourager les autres with heavy weapons - thermobarics, or some NBC weapon, perhaps a tactical nuke - but not only might that increase Ukrainian resolve, it might well lead to an escalation of involvement from the West who could at that point decide that they can no longer hold back in the face of Putin's nuclear threat. And, presumably, they want Ukraine reasonably intact, rather than scorched earth...although that priority might shift as they get more desperate.

Air strikes and heavy artillery would do it. And I think its coming. They have form.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Given the level of Putin's hubris thus far, I think a combination of that and desperation might be enough to make him think it would be worth a go.

The house arrest of FSB top dogs responsible for Ukraine suggest it wasn’t Putin’s hubris but poor intel that created this shit show.

If nukes are going to be used, Putin would not prioritise Ukraine as a target. Nuclear NATO states will be the top priority.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

People saying that ‘Russia is winning the war’ have to define what having won it will look like.

It’s been suggested establishing a land route to Crimea would be one objective.

 

[bimble]

It’s been suggested establishing a land route to Crimea would be one objective.

That’s not what Putin said he was setting out to achieve.

 

[cupid_stunt]

That’s not what Putin said he was setting out to achieve.

He also said he wasn't going to invade.

 

[bimble]

If Putin declares victory tomorrow without having achieved any of his stated goals that’s great, but idk what people mean when they say Russia is winning the war.

 

[strung out]

People saying that ‘Russia is winning the war’ have to define what having won it will look like. The gov of Ukraine announcing surrender?

They've already pretty much lost if you compare it to Putin's assumed political aims at the outset.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

That’s not what Putin said he was setting out to achieve.

“I’m coming to nick a bit of Ukraine to more easily bring in supplies for our Black Sea fleet” Isn’t a narrative the Russian state could spin.

How did the US justify invading Iraq so yanky oil firms could exploit Mesopotamian hydrocarbons?

Replace WMD with Nazis.

 

[strung out]

It’s been suggested establishing a land route to Crimea would be one objective.

He already has a land route to Crimea to all intents and purposes.

Crimean Bridge - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[WhyLikeThis]

He already has a land route to Crimea to all intents and purposes.

Crimean Bridge - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Bit vulnerable to those TB2s.

 

[bimble]

Imo the bits where Putin talks about how he felt about Ukraine, on the eve of the invasion, there he was telling the truth, he believed all that stuff he said. He didn’t expect things to go like this and so hopefully his aims will be adjusted to fit the circumstances.

 

[emanymton]

He also said he wasn't going to invade.

He still says he hasn't

 

[Dogsauce]

If Putin declares victory tomorrow without having achieved any of his stated goals that’s great, but idk what people mean when they say Russia is winning the war.

Gaining territory, destroying the opposition. It’s what is happening.

They’ve thrown over 700 cruise missiles into the country in two weeks. Big targets, big damage. The country will not be able to sustain this destruction indefinitely. Taking out a lot of tanks and supply lines doesn’t stop this, they’re launched from Belarus and ships, neither of which can be targeted by the defenders.

I’ve no idea what winning might look like, I don’t think Ukraine can capitulate and nor should they, and I don’t know what Russia can gain given citizens will oppose them just about everywhere. Neither side will want to lose land or face. Russia doesn’t have an out with Putin running things, defeat is not possible.

 

[bimble]

He set out to turn it into a client state, with a puppet government, without need to occupy. That’s very unlikely to happen. A totally different outcome that he’s willing to declare as a victory would be great.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

He already has a land route to Crimea to all intents and purposes.

Crimean Bridge - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The bridge would likely not last long regardless of bombing risks.

Georgy Rosnovsky, the creator of two Ukrainian Kerch Strait bridge designs, cannot understand why the current plan through the Tuzla Spit was chosen. As he told Focus.ua, it is the most complicated and expensive option. Assuming generous financing, the bridge can be built, but he doubts that it will last very long given the area’s poor geological conditions. These include deep-lying mud volcanoes and a sludgy bottom that is unsuitable for bridge foundations. Most disturbingly, it is an area of high seismic activity. The piles would need to be much deeper than they are in the current design, and he fears that the construction is likely to be weak. The bridge spans also need to be over 200 meters to ensure that they aren’t damaged when the water freezes; this is currently not in the plan.

Russia’s Crimea Bridge Could Collapse Anytime

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called construction of a bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea a “historic mission.” He should pay better

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[kebabking]

The house arrest of FSB top dogs responsible for Ukraine suggest it wasn’t Putin’s hubris but poor intel that created this shit show....

I don't know - Russian dictators have form for getting the hump with Int people who tell them unwelcome truths, particularly when proven right...

Just as likely that it's Putin making clear what he wants FSB and SVR to find, they find it, and when things turn out differently he blames them.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Imo the bits where Putin talks about how he felt about Ukraine, on the eve of the invasion, there he was telling the truth, he believed all that stuff he said. He didn’t expect things to go like this and so hopefully his aims will be adjusted to fit the circumstances.

And, how do you know that?