Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kabbes]

Why, though? Does he want an excuse to use his nukes? And why would he want to do that?

It’s possible that he is goading to see how far he can go before a real reprisal. Testing the boundaries. And this also has the advantage of encouraging the foot-in-the-door bias — if we accepted that then this is only a little bit worse

 

[SpookyFrank]

Even in war, there are rules, and the use of certain weapons in certain circumstances can be war crimes, and there are rules governing how to treat PoWs, etc.

Unfotunately you've just given us a good example of a situation where there aren't any rules of conflict, namely the genocidal forever war against Palestinians. Never mind white phosphorus, the rules say you can't occupy territory indefinitely, can't build settlements on occupied land etc etc.

 

[strung out]

I still think throwing loads of combat Drones their way would help immensely, they could have made a massive impact on that column stalled in the North.

That is apparently exactly what they're doing

 

[cupid_stunt]

I can't be arsed, tbh. I don't think there's much value in immediately defaulting to doubting everything without independent sources. That's just an internet game. We know that Russia has those weapons in Ukraine and if the MoD say they've used them, I'm happy to believe them. As someone else said, it's doesn't much matter to the victims what they get killed with.

Personally I think it's healthy to be sceptical about anything unusual coming out of both sides. Ukraine has claimed on a number of occasions that thermobaric weapons have been used, the latest was just yesterday, but never stating where or how they have been used, that hasn't been widely reported, because clearly media outlets have been sceptical.

Suddenly reports of their use became widespread yesterday, because the UK claimed that the Russian MoD had confirmed their use, without any indication of where or how this confirmation was made, or any information of where they had been used.

The MoD has not said where or when Russia issued the confirmation. A spokesperson could not provide further information when contacted by The Independent.

NATO doesn't seem to have claimed they have been used, and the US has actually said they have no evidence of their use, which is odd considering intelligence is shared between the UK & US.

The Ministry of Defence said on Wednesday that Russia had admitted firing a thermobaric weapons system in Ukraine. However, a Pentagon spokesman said it had "no indication" that the devastating bombs had been used so far. Telegraph

It is, of course, possible there was a cock-up by our MoD quoting Ukraine's MoD and mistakenly labelled it as being the Russian MoD, especially as there doesn't seem to be any logic or advantage to the Russians admitting their use.

 

[Aladdin]

From France 24

 

[Aladdin]

In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership

President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.

www.google.com

 

[bimble]

In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership

President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.

www.google.com

yeah this was yesterday. I think the only way it would make any real difference is if Putin is looking for a way to stop and declare victory, then it's potentially good news.

 

[Spymaster]

Personally I think it's healthy to be sceptical about anything unusual coming out of both sides. Ukraine has claimed on a number of occasions that thermobaric weapons have been used, the latest was just yesterday, but never stating where or how they have been used, that hasn't been widely reported, because clearly media outlets have been sceptical.

Suddenly reports of their use became widespread yesterday, because the UK claimed that the Russian MoD had confirmed their use, without any indication of where or how this confirmation was made, or any information of where they had been used.



NATO doesn't seem to have claimed they have been used, and the US has actually said they have no evidence of their use, which is odd considering intelligence is shared between the UK & US.



It is, of course, possible there was a cock-up by our MoD quoting Ukraine's MoD and mistakenly labelled it as being the Russian MoD, especially as there doesn't seem to be any logic or advantage to the Russians admitting their use.

It's more the immediate insistence that because something is reported by the British, that it's propaganda or to be taken with a pinch of salt, that I find misguided in this context. Like them or loathe them UK intelligence and military has been remarkably accurate in their reporting of this conflict and it's not as though they have to wheel out the propaganda machine to make people think Putin's a cunt.

 

[strung out]

If you look at various flight tracker apps, you can see flights taking off from near where the Turkish Bayraktar drones are manufactured, on their way to the Ukraine-Poland border

 

[ska invita]

demanding concern for a major imperialists security concerns is a tad hypocritical.

its a weird way of phrasing it - I dont have "concern" for Russian imperialists "security concerns" - rather I recognise the Russian state as another fellow brutal actor on the imperial stage with a proven track record of aggression, and therefore believe foreign policy should act accordingly to minimise loss of life and security of all.

Political classes in the west are so used to thinking it's one rule for them and another for everyone else they act catastrophically across the world stage on the regular.

'They made him'.

say it with pride and keep learning nothing from all this

 

[Spymaster]

UK sending Ukraine Starstreaks.

Probably not the best time to be a Russian pilot.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's more the immediate insistence that because something is reported by the British, that it's propaganda or to be taken with a pinch of salt, that I find misguided in this context. Like them or loathe them UK intelligence and military has been remarkably accurate in their reporting of this conflict and it's not as though they have to wheel out the propaganda machine to make people think Putin's a cunt.

I only said this particular claim should be taken with a pinch of salt, because it didn't make any sense whatsoever, so I looked to see who else was making the same claim, and no one was, so that made me sceptical.

I would agree that generally speaking the UK MoD has been remarkably accurate overall, but that doesn't mean they are on every occasion.

 

[Spymaster]

I only said this particular claim should be taken with a pinch of salt, because it didn't make any sense whatsoever, so I looked to see who else was making the same claim, and no one was, so that made me sceptical.

I would agree that generally speaking the UK MoD has been remarkably accurate overall, but that doesn't mean they are on every occasion.

On balance, I think it’s more likely that they have some kind of intelligence that such a weapon has been used and they’ve put it out that way to protect a source, than that they’re propagandising

 

[NoXion]

It's relevant because some weapons are only supposed to be used 'on the battlefield,' as it were, and their use in built up residential areas against the civilian population is prohibited under the Geneva Convention, and eg thermobaric weapons (and eg white phosphorus, which was used by Israel in highly populated Gaza during Operation Cast Lead) fall under these exclusions.

Even in war, there are rules, and the use of certain weapons in certain circumstances can be war crimes, and there are rules governing how to treat PoWs, etc.

It's not supposed to be a free for all where anything goes, so the type of weapons is relevant, it's not a red herring.

Maybe the Russians forces should just use boring old conventional shells to kill people and flatten everything instead. I'm sure the Ukrainians will appreciate that.

 

[andysays]

On balance, I think it’s more likely that they have some kind of intelligence that such a weapon has been used and they’ve put it out that way to protect a source, than that they’re propagandising

Maybe it's worth us all considering that propagandising doesn't necessarily involve making stuff up, it also includes choosing which bits of correct intelligence/information to share and which to keep back.

ETA Choosing to focus on Russian atrocities and possible war crimes could be a precursor to some level of heightened response from NATO (I'm not saying it is, necessarily)

 

[Indeliblelink]

Russia getting twitchy that Japan might take advantage of their military's weakened state to retake the disputed Kuril Islands?

Talk in Pravda of nuclear defence being used if they try it.

Japan may try to see Kuril Islands from Russia amid Ukraine crisis

It is only a nuclear attack that will be able to stop Tokyo from implementing its plans to seize the Kuril Islands from Russia.

english.pravda.ru

Training exercises on mock enemies

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14018011?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=t.co&utm_referrer=t.co

TASS, March 10. S-300V4 air defense units of the Eastern Military District (VVO) on the Kuril Islands repelled an air raid by a mock enemy during training, the district's press service said on Thursday.

"During the training, the duty forces for air defense (AD) received information about the violation of the air borders of Russia by a group of aircraft of a mock enemy, after which the crews of the S-300V4 anti-aircraft missile systems searched, identified and tracked air targets that simulated an "enemy" air raid. During the training, a training shelling of several dozen air targets was carried out. According to the results of the training, the crews of the S-300V4 air defense system successfully "destroyed" 100% of the targets at the entrance to the affected area," the press service said.

 

[frogwoman]

If anyone says they are doing a military exercise after this nobody will believe them.

 

[frogwoman]

Like that submarine that was off the coast of Ireland, if it was just there for an exercise why couldn't they have had the exercise in Russia?

 

[NoXion]

If anyone says they are doing a military exercise after this nobody will believe them.

I'm sure most people will believe it when Liechtenstein says it, even though they've accidentally invaded their neighbours a few times.

 

[existentialist]

I'm sure most people will believe it when Liechtenstein says it, even though they've accidentally invaded their neighbours a few times.

TBF, you only have to take a half-step sideways in Liechtenstein to invade a neighbour

 

[frogwoman]

 

[contadino]

UK sending Ukraine Starstreaks.

Probably not the best time to be a Russian pilot.

Well you have to keep some context here. Russian pilots are bombing civilians and those weapons are so that Ukraine can protect them.

Probably not the best time to be a vulnerable Ukranian, all in all.

 

[bimble]

not to get into a semantic debate about the word genocide but it looks to me like what the Russian army is doing now doesn't make any sense at all if their objective was 'just' regime change.

 

[NoXion]

not to get into a semantic debate about the word genocide but it looks to me like what the Russian army is doing now doesn't make any sense at all if their objective was 'just' regime change.

The Russian armed forces have been behaving like this in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria. I'm not sure that they really have the institutional experience to behave otherwise. Not to say they aren't culpable for their behaviour, but when all you have is a hammer...

 

[Pickman's model]

not to get into a semantic debate about the word genocide but it looks to me like what the Russian army is doing now doesn't make any sense at all if their objective was 'just' regime change.

I think you'll find out their notion of demilitarisation is akin to Nixon's 'bomb them back to the stone age'

 

[Diamond]

This is the bit that I don't think people have reckoned with yet. Extreme repression, almost in search of an ideology.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

The Russian armed forces have been behaving like this in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria. I'm not sure that they really have the institutional experience to behave otherwise. Not to say they aren't culpable for their behaviour, but when all you have is a hammer...

So much better when they had a sickle as well.

 

[Pickman's model]

This is the bit that I don't think people have reckoned with yet. Extreme repression, almost in search of an ideology.

I think we all knew something like this would happen however much we hoped it wouldn't

 

[frogwoman]

This is the bit that I don't think people have reckoned with yet. Extreme repression, almost in search of an ideology.

Crimean Tatars have a really long history of repression and racism in the USSR.

 

[NoXion]

So much better when they had a sickle as well.

You joke perhaps, but in my non-expert's estimation, current Russian military doctrine represents more of an "evolution" than a "revolution" as compared to Soviet doctrine. They don't have quite same number of bodies to throw away as they used to, but they've kept the mass use of artillery to batter the enemy into submission.