Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

Fwiw, I think Pickmans and Cupid are wrong, and the MoD are saying that Russia has used thermobaric weapons because Russia has used thermobaric weapons.

They probably have, but can you quote an independent source to back it up?

ATM every news source is only quoting the MOD's claims that the Russians have admitted it, none are actually quoting Russia's admission , and some seem sceptical, with headlines like 'United Kingdom ‘confirmed’ Russian forces' use of thermobaric rockets in Ukraine'.

 

[frogwoman]

This and some of the airspace violations honestly feel like he's trying to goad nato into a response.

 

[bimble]

The Russian Ministry of Defence twitter account shut itself down about a week ago and has looked like this since, unless you're one of its friends. Thats what people do when they don't want a pile on, but this is the MOD.

 

[bluescreen]

This and some of the airspace violations honestly feel like he's trying to goad nato into a response.

Why, though? Does he want an excuse to use his nukes? And why would he want to do that?

 

[Spymaster]

They probably have, but can you quote an independent source to back it up?

I can't be arsed, tbh. I don't think there's much value in immediately defaulting to doubting everything without independent sources. That's just an internet game. We know that Russia has those weapons in Ukraine and if the MoD say they've used them, I'm happy to believe them. As someone else said, it's doesn't much matter to the victims what they get killed with.

 

[Raheem]

Why, though? Does he want an excuse to use his nukes? And why would he want to do that?

If that's what's happening (not saying it is or it isn't), that could be because he wants a a wider war/nuclear showdown, because Russia might not lose that so easily. Or it could be because he wants an excuse to climb down for the good of humanity, rather than because he's been a moron. Dunno really.

 

[frogwoman]

Why, though? Does he want an excuse to use his nukes? And why would he want to do that?

Possibly yeah, as for why probably feeling insecure about the size of his penis or something.

 

[Ax^]

if the war contiues to go bad for him and is such a pr nightmre

would he think to use a battlefield low yeild tactical nuke

would the west commit to a full war or just condemn

thats the worry

 

[bimble]

if the war contiues to go bad for him and is such a pr nightmre

would he think to use a battlefield low yeild tactical nuke

would the west commit to a full war or just condemn

thats the worry

why would that be categorically different to bombing a maternity hospital though, apart from that the book of rules of gentlemanly warfare says one is ok one isn't. I think lots of condemning in the strongest possible words would happen.

 

[Ax^]

Don't think Putin give a shite about Gentlemanly warfare, he presona is a hardman type dragged out conflicts are embrassing to that image

the tactical nuke would be to end the war quickly and find out how the world would respond

 

[Diamond]

If you fancy a sobering dose of realism, this strategy-military type person (who, going on his bio, I suspect is NATO involved) basically says that Russia is still probably on course, albeit well behind, and that we can expect them to roll-out the Kharkiv treatment to more places elsewhere:

 

[emanymton]

if the war contiues to go bad for him and is such a pr nightmre

would he think to use a battlefield low yeild tactical nuke

would the west commit to a full war or just condemn

thats the worry

Looks more likely he is doing the groundwork for chemical/biological weapons next. And he will get away with that I am sure. If that doesn't work...

 

[Ax^]

and he more than likely frame it as home as a leak from a bombed undeclared us/uk/euro production site :/

 

[dilute micro]

I believe this is intended to break Zelenskyy.

 

[emanymton]

and he more than likely frame it as home as a leak from a bombed undeclared us/uk/euro production site :/

Exactly what he is setting up.

 

[Aladdin]

The Russian Ministry of Defence twitter account shut itself down about a week ago and has looked like this since, unless you're one of its friends. Thats what people do when they don't want a pile on, but this is the MOD.


View attachment 313645

Interesting .. links to the mothers in law of Russia

 

[DaveCinzano]

From a friend in Lviv:

View attachment 313613View attachment 313614

Google tells me Я ТОЫ НЕ «КРАСАВІЩА» means I AM NOT "BEAUTIFUL"

 

[Dystopiary]

Don't think Putin give a shite about Gentlemanly warfare, he presona is a hardman type dragged out conflicts are embrassing to that image

the tactical nuke would be to end the war quickly and find out how the world would respond

But doesn't he want Ukraine for himself/Russia? If he used nukes there wouldn't be much left. (Can't believe I'm writing this like this is remotely a reasonable thing to be discussing and the world's not totally bizarro.)

 

[RD2003]

But doesn't he want Ukraine for himself/Russia? If he used nukes there wouldn't be much left. (Can't believe I'm writing this like this is remotely a reasonable thing to be discussing and the world's not totally bizarro.)

Whoever thought, in 1989-91, a time of heady optimism for both the free-market right and the more starry-eyed elements of both the (often overlapping) liberal and radical left, that we could possibly be discussing the possibility of nuclear war a mere 30 years later?

Well... some of us did at least...

1989 heralded the age of permanent crisis, which finally got going in earnest circa 2001. Capitalism is rapacious. It's unlikely to end well.

 

[Ax^]

But doesn't he want Ukraine for himself/Russia? If he used nukes there wouldn't be much left. (Can't believe I'm writing this like this is remotely a reasonable thing to be discussing and the world's not totally bizarro.)

2600 km is already unfit for life

Ukraine is the size of france and kyiv is in the north side and might be suitable for a tactical non stratigic nuke

 

[RD2003]

History is brutally back, and what happens in Ukraine will test Europe’s appetite for it | Luuk van Middelaar

The EU’s vocation was to tear down walls and promote peace. Should it be a party to a conflict with a nuclear superpower?, says historian Luuk va Middelaar

www.theguardian.com

Interesting, not least for the idea that history began trampling over all of us again only on 24th February this year.

Also for the idea that 'Putin has thrown himself into the unthinkable.' Maybe it's only unthinkable to people like the author.

 

[RD2003]

From the above article, some points to remember, especially for EU fans.

'Just weeks ago, Poland was in the EU dock for offending against the rule of law. Today, peace and security trump such worries. But at a moment when Europe is fighting in the name of democratic freedoms, it should not lower its guard internally either.

Europe shows plenty of political energy, but strategic calm is sometimes lacking – which is worrying. Twitter triumphalism about Russian military miscalculation is premature. Keeping heads cool is now a matter of life and death. The absolute priority is to avert the danger of a nuclear war. Bravely insisting that Putin is bluffing when he threatens one is irresponsible.'

 

[RD2003]

And again, for those those who won't/don't want to read the article.

But that fact does not seem to have got through to all the leading politicians. On the very day the weapons deliveries were announced, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, rashly put the prospect of EU membership for Ukraine on the table. The next day, Zelenskiy submitted an official request. Poland and other eastern European countries cheered in response, and the European parliament applauded. Hesitant member states kept quiet or took a nuanced position for the time being; nobody begrudges the beleaguered Ukrainians a ray of hope.

In the recklessness of the zeitenwende, Von der Leyen appears to ignore the fact that for the Kremlin, which we are trying to bring to its senses, Nato’s and the EU’s promises to Kyiv since 2008 and 2014 are primary sources of conflict. Is this the best moment to feed the distrust of an opponent in full rage, and to add complexity to a situation already filled with dangerous ambiguities? Amid such high tension, diplomatic formulas of “long-term perspective” or “perhaps one day” are counterproductive. It is tragic but, at best, such statements have come too early. At worst, they will be another false promise. The upcoming EU summit in Versailles on 10-11 March would then repeat for the EU what the infamous Bucharest summit in April 2008 did for Nato: open a door to aspiring members while knowing very well they will never cross it in one piece.

 

[two sheds]

Russia will nationalize assets of foreign firms that leave – ruling party

Russia's ruling party, United Russia, said on Wednesday that a government commission had approved the first step towards nationalizing assets of foreign firms that leave the country in the

newsinfo.inquirer.net

goodoh - means western countries can nationalize their assets unless of course they've got rid of them like in the UK where they've got loads of time to do that.

 

[RD2003]

It isn't good against evil, folks.

'In Versailles this week, EU leaders will discuss these matters. In the weeks ahead, one question will be: can we accept coexistence with a geopolitical adversary whom we despise, be it in Moscow or Beijing? Not crushing them as the devil incarnate, not trying to destroy them, not projecting ourselves (again) into a post-historical future of universal peace, but dealing with them as a rival? Politically, that is perhaps the real Rubicon that Europe needs to cross.'

 

[ohmyliver]

Exactly what he is setting up.

The US seems to think there's a definite possibility of their use.. see

(a twitter thread where the WH press sec has claimed that Russia’s false claims about alleged U.S. biological weapons labs and chemical weapons development in Ukraine means we should all be on the lookout for Russia to possibly use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, or to create a false flag operation using them.)

 

[2hats]

IAEA reporting that Zaporizhzhya NPP has lost 2 of 4 power feeds and data links to safeguarding monitors have dropped.

 

[RD2003]

Prescient from good old Bernie. He blames Putin, by the way.

We must do everything possible to avoid an enormously destructive war in Ukraine | Bernie Sanders

I’m concerned when I hear familiar drumbeats in Washington demanding we ‘show strength’, when we’re faced with what could be the worst European war in 75 years

www.theguardian.com

 

[RD2003]

'To put it simply, even if Russia was not ruled by a corrupt authoritarian leader like Vladimir Putin, Russia, like the United States, would still have an interest in the security policies of its neighbors. Does anyone really believe that the United States would not have something to say if, for example, Mexico was to form a military alliance with a US adversary?

Countries should be free to make their own foreign policy choices, but making those choices wisely requires a serious consideration of the costs and benefits. The fact is that the US and Ukraine entering into a deeper security relationship is likely to have some very serious costs – for both countries.'

 

[two sheds]

Looks a good analysis to me - anyone disagree with that?