Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Weller]

Spoiler: hmm

Well done and thanks my searching abilities are obviously lacking Im more used to photoshoping cats etc here

Ax^ said:
watch threads today after helping the da mend the sister mini maybe i was in the right mood..
how did you older lot deal with the situation if that was prime time telly

I watched Threads at a local CND meeting years ago in my teens made me join up and go to a fair few protests and Billy Bragg , Style council Captain Sensible CND gigs fund raisers etc was genuinely worried and feels like we are right back there now , the music charts were full of songs about a coming nuclear war for a fair few years big marches etc in Barrow in Furness against Trident , around Hyde Park etc I remember it being a very worrying time for all of us just out of school

Do remember doing the CND stall a few times in civic hall reception area most people were interested too our local Tory councilor told me to fuck off to Russia if you dont like it here a few times , chats with Tony Benn Ken Livingstone and Joan Ruddock were good bits I remember oh and some scruffy Corbyn bloke hanging about
CND became a bit of a wankathon for the middle class dinner party charity photo oportunity lot who wouldnt get on a coach for 4 hours to protest later so I left

Still got when the wind blows on vhs and the book Raymond Briggs well worth a watch or read

Enough of my nostalgia back to the other derails

 

[Ming]

Well done and thanks my searching abilities are obviously lacking Im more used to photoshoping cats etc here

I watched Threads at a local CND meeting years ago in my teens made me join up and go to a fair few protests and Billy Bragg , Style council Captain Sensible CND gigs fund raisers etc was genuinely worried and feels like we are right back there now , the music charts were full of songs about a coming nuclear war for a fair few years big marches etc in Barrow in Furness against Trident , around Hyde Park etc I remember it being a very worrying time for all of us just out of school

Do remember doing the CND stall a few times in civic hall reception area most people were interested too our local Tory councilor told me to fuck off to Russia if you dont like it here a few times , chats with Tony Benn Ken Livingstone and Joan Ruddock were good bits I remember oh and some scruffy Corbyn bloke hanging about
CND became a bit of a wankathon for the middle class dinner party charity photo oportunity lot who wouldnt get on a coach for 4 hours to protest later so I left

Still got when the wind blows on vhs and the book Raymond Briggs well worth a watch or read

Enough of my nostalgia back to the other derails

We’re similar in age. It’s funny that I’m a lot more worried about nuclear war at the moment than i ever was in the Cold War.

 

[Weller]

We’re similar in age. It’s funny that I’m a lot more worried about nuclear war at the moment than i ever was in the Cold War.

Yes we were worried but maybe I am more now too because it seemed all in the past
The cold war threat lasted through most my younger years when just starting college and work so yes its worrying future especially when young just coming out of a 2 year pandemic whatever happens next
At least 24 hour news and internet we know a bit more about whats happening but then again maybe thats worse for mental health and well being too seeing it all no respite

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Plague dogs not watched that for many years the ending really messed my head up as a child though but added to my watch for this week actually was searching for a link to Threads in full streaming on here for free someone posted earlier but couldn't find it its a bit difficult searching for "threads" on here and gave up looking through past pages to find it so if you have a link

Think I found it on the Internet Archive. Bound to be others too, but pretty sure it's available there.

 

[platinumsage]

Morning peeps - don’t bother with the last few pages

 

[cupid_stunt]

^^^ Sound advice, I just scrolled past them, thread totally trashed again.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Anyway, another ceasefire today to open up humanitarian corridors, after the failures of the last two days, I am just hoping it's third time lucky, but some of the routes will only allow evacuation to Belarus or Russia, not sure that's too helpful.

We’re receiving more information surrounding the humanitarian corridors Russia has reportedly agreed to open this morning.

According to various Russian state media outlets all citing Russia’s defence ministry, the corridors - which will be opened from the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Sumy - are being set up at the personal request of French President Emmanuel Macron.

Some corridors appear to involve the evacuation of Ukrainian civilians to Russian cities.

According to routes published by the RIA Novosti news agency, the corridor from Kyiv will lead to Belarus, and civilians who are seeking to flee Kharkiv will only have one corridor leading to Russia.

Corridors from Mariupol and Sumy will lead both to other Ukrainian cities and to Russia.

Those who want to leave Kyiv will also be able to be airlifted to Russia, the ministry said, adding that it would use drones to monitor the evacuation and “attempts by the Ukrainian side to deceive Russia and the whole civilised world ... are useless this time”.

Two planned evacuation operations from Mariupol and the nearby city of Volnovakha failed over the last two days as the sides accused each other of failing to stop shooting and shelling.

In Mariupol alone, Ukrainian authorities have said they planned to evacuate over 200,000 civilians, or half of the city’s population.

LINK

 

[Supine]

^^^ Sound advice, I just scrolled past them, thread totally trashed again.

You didn’t miss anything worthwhile

 

[emanymton]

that condescending prick comes back and the whole thread goes to shit.

I'm going to ask again, can people please ignore him and not respond. Please.

 

[platinumsage]

Seems Mykolaiv had it worse last night:

 

[Cid]

It appears Russia is opening evacuation corridors... But er... The only route out listed from Kyiv runs through Hostomel, Chernobyl up to Belarus, then to Russia (i.e, an extremely active conflict zone, then that fucking convoy). Mariupol's evacuation to Rostov-on-Don... Kharkiv and Sumy to Belgorod. There are secondary routes from Mariupol and Sumy that lead to Zaporozhye and Poltava respectively... But fucking hell.

Link Russian state media, but also reported in graun live feed:

ВС РФ объявили режим тишины с 10:00 для выхода людей из украинских городов

Вооруженные силы России после просьбы президента Франции Эммануэля Макрона к российскому лидеру Владимиру Путину объявляют с 10:00 режим тишины и открывают... РИА Новости, 07.03.2022

ria.ru

e2a: yeah, just noticed cupid stunt posted above...

e2aa: Summing up the obvious:

 

[Cid]

Rather obviously there are reports these routes are not by mutual agreement. Also Russia will be monitoring the routes... with drones.

 

[bimble]

Russia is recruiting fighters from Syria, paying them to come and help with urban warfare in Ukraine, this says.

WSJ News Exclusive | Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say

Moscow is looking for help from foreign fighters to take cities including Kyiv. The move points to a potential escalation of fighting in Ukraine.

www.wsj.com

 

[SpookyFrank]

Apparently the line being presented in Russia is that there are specific, localised actions to protect Russian-speaking areas in Ukraine. This gives Putin a potential out, as 'officially' his goal is not to seize the whole of Ukraine or the entire black sea coast or whatever it is he's actually after. He could at any point just stop all this shit and claim that his nebulous goals had already been achieved.

How that would go down with the mad ultra-nationalists though, is another matter. There are clearly Russians who want and expect a total conquest of Ukraine.

 

[andysays]

Apparently the line being presented in Russia is that there are specific, localised actions to protect Russian-speaking areas in Ukraine. This gives Putin a potential out, as 'officially' his goal is not to seize the whole of Ukraine or the entire black sea coast or whatever it is he's actually after. He could at any point just stop all this shit and claim that his nebulous goals had already been achieved.

How that would go down with the mad ultra-nationalists though, is another matter. There are clearly Russians who want and expect a total conquest of Ukraine.

Isn't this basically what was originally announced (to much disbelief and mockery) at the beginning of the invasion/special military operation?

Or is there something new and different?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky reporting 13,500 Ukrainians have applied for UK visas, and just 50 granted so far, FFS.

 

[ska invita]

Prof Freedman now very bearish on Russian prospects:

Space and Time

With the costs of war mounting and his army in disarray Putin is running out of options

samf.substack.com

Wow, I'm starting to believe. First time I've read anyone using the word Defeat as a real probability

 

[andysays]

Rather obviously there are reports these routes are not by mutual agreement. Also Russia will be monitoring the routes... with drones.

There also doesn't appear to be any confirmation or even acknowledgement of this plan from any Ukrainian authorities.

 

[Flavour]

The southern front looks like it will link up Donbass and Crimea with relative ease. Can't see mariuopol holding out much longer. But the assaults on kyiv and kharkiv can be categorised - - so far - - as failures. This news (perhaps insignificant) of the Syrians being recruited points to the unpreparedness of the Russian army - who'd ever have thought they'd resort to that?

 

[Cid]

There also doesn't appear to be any confirmation or even acknowledgement of this plan from any Ukrainian authorities.

No indeed. Need more explicit condemnation from er... Macron I suppose. or the ICRC. Although it's difficult to unpick, all there is so far is this report from RIA novosti... It's not even clear what the plan is... Airlifts from Hostomel (I'm focusing on Kyiv because on the face of it that route is so completely absurd)? for presumably hundreds of thousands? Or 200km on foot to Chernobyl, which is a death sentence with temperatures set to drop and - far as we can tell - no movement on roads.

 

[IC3D]

Russia obviously want to use this as propaganda by only allowing them to escape to there or Belarus. I doubt Ukraine will go along with it.

 

[Cid]

Surprisingly TikTok (Chinese owned) seems to have restricted service in Russia.

TikTok restricts service in Russia and Netflix stops streaming

Chinese-owned video platform blocks new content after Kremlin criminalises reporting of Ukraine invasion

www.theguardian.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

Surprisingly TikTok (Chinese owned) seems to have restricted service in Russia.

TikTok restricts service in Russia and Netflix stops streaming

Chinese-owned video platform blocks new content after Kremlin criminalises reporting of Ukraine invasion

www.theguardian.com

Not that surprising, they are only doing it because of the new laws in Russia clamping down on what they call 'fake news'.

 

[Flavour]

Surprisingly TikTok (Chinese owned) seems to have restricted service in Russia.

TikTok restricts service in Russia and Netflix stops streaming

Chinese-owned video platform blocks new content after Kremlin criminalises reporting of Ukraine invasion

www.theguardian.com

I don't think is so much out of solidarity with Ukraine but out of fear of repercussions following the new law in Russia banning the spread of "fake news" and so on

 

[andysays]

Russia obviously want to use this as propaganda by only allowing them to escape to there or Belarus. I doubt Ukraine will go along with it.

8:15 Russia's corridors proposal 'completely immoral' - Ukraine

Ukraine has said Russia's proposal on humanitarian corridors taking refugees to Belarus or Russia was "completely immoral".

Ukrainian citizens should be allowed to leave their homes through Ukrainian territory, a spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

"This is a completely immoral story. People's suffering is used to create the desired television picture," the spokesman said in a written message quoted by Reuters news agency.

"These are citizens of Ukraine, they should have the right to evacuate to the territory of Ukraine"

 

[Cid]

Not that surprising, they are only doing it because of the new laws in Russia clamping down on what they call 'fake news'.

I don't think is so much out of solidarity with Ukraine but out of fear of repercussions following the new law in Russia banning the spread of "fake news" and so on

My point is that Chinese companies generally won't act (at least on something as significant as this) without some level of permission from the CCP. One of the arguments around Russia's future is a move from the Western media ecosystem to the Chinese one, this complicates that picture.

e2a: also, from above BBC link, China will send humanitarian aid. Though Wang Yi stresses China's friendship with Russia is "rock solid".

e2aa: To be clear China is currently undergoing wide-ranging internal economic change involving crackdowns on high net worth individuals and media companies (have a google for 'red new deal'), Chinese media companies are particularly wary of fucking up at the moment.

 

[bimble]

I read a thing about millions of views on tiktok of videos made by young ukrainians about what is going on for them. That is probably a part of this.

 

[Pickman's model]

The southern front looks like it will link up Donbass and Crimea with relative ease. Can't see mariuopol holding out much longer. But the assaults on kyiv and kharkiv can be categorised - - so far - - as failures. This news (perhaps insignificant) of the Syrians being recruited points to the unpreparedness of the Russian army - who'd ever have thought they'd resort to that?

On the other hand while the operations against Kiev and Kharkiv may not have succeeded yet they will be trying down large numbers of Ukrainian forces

 

[Pickman's model]

I read a thing about millions of views on tiktok of videos made by young ukrainians about what is going on for them. That is probably a part of this.

Sometimes things are what people say they are, in this case being because of the new russian law in Russia. If you've actual evidence it's in part or wholly because of young Ukrainians' videos then please share it

 

[bimble]

Sometimes things are what people say they are, in this case being because of the new russian law in Russia. If you've actual evidence it's in part or wholly because of young Ukrainians' videos then please share it

i may be entirely wrong. have never been in less of a mood for a fight than i am right now.