Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[DaveCinzano]

#doublebubble

#makeit14dayterms

 

[Pickman's model]

And, one thing that riot cops tend not to be equipped with is intelligence.

The people who command them otoh

 

[dilute micro]

Have all the billions already disappeared?

True, thought I read he was set for years before feeling any real pain.

 

[TopCat]

A captured officer explaining what it is like to find himself fighting a war that he was lied to about the purpose of, finding himself amongst people he sees as brothers and whom he has no interest in killing. Says talk to any soldier they’ll say the same, and has a suggestion for how soldiers on both sides could help reduce the disaster.

Perhaps yourself not putting up directions to the Ukraine foreign legion might make this seem , er a bit more credible.

 

[Raheem]

Have all the billions already disappeared?

You don't think he would use his money, do you?

 

[bimble]

True, thought I read he was set for years before feeling any real pain.

he's fine. i dont think he'll be selling his ridiculous palace to fund the war effort though.

 

[dilute micro]

You don't think he would use his money, do you?

Talking state money.

 

[bimble]

Perhaps yourself not putting up directions to the Ukraine foreign legion might make this seem , er a bit more credible.

what?

 

[gosub]

He's not an intelligence officer, he's a riot police officer (SOBR).

In the Soviet Army, you would have KGB who follow up behind any push to deal with those reluctant to go forward....Had assumed that was the roll taken by the riot police whom got done over quite early on in the war

 

[cupid_stunt]

have you watched the video? Guy is not stupid, at all.

Yes, it was a joke about riot cops in general.

 

[TopCat]

what?

You posted a link to how foreigners could join the war, kill and be killed. "Just asking questions, or for information" but you did it. Maybe someone took heart from your words and is on their way now.

 

[kebabking]

is this going to go on for years ? Just for hard practical reasons It can't go on for long at this level of intensity can it? i mean soldiers lives and billions of money a day on military hardware getting shot out of the sky etc.

I don't see why not - defence spending across Europe might hit 2.5, possibly 3%, but in the 80's it was 5%. Before the use of satellites or specialist, very fast surveillance aircraft in the 60-70's the Russians shot down a fair number of British, French, US, Turkish, Norwegian aircraft, and of course over Korea the number was hundreds. Good few US aircraft in Vietnam...

This might blow over pretty soon if Putin falls out of a window and the Ukraine issue is brought to a close, but I think there's a wider effect, that the 'peace is cheap' idea is dead, and that politicians are often asleep at the wheel.

There's a widespread view within European NATO that if Trump had been President, the Baltic States, Moldova, and a slice of Finland would be next.

 

[bimble]

You posted a link to how foreigners could join the war, kill and be killed. "Just asking questions, or for information" but you did it. Maybe someone took heart from your words and is on their way now.

ok

 

[bimble]

I don't see why not - defence spending across Europe might hit 2.5, possibly 3%, but in the 80's it was 5%. Before the use of satellites or specialist, very fast surveillance aircraft in the 60-70's the Russians shot down a fair number of British, French, US, Turkish, Norwegian aircraft, and of course over Korea the number was hundreds. Good few US aircraft in Vietnam...

This might blow over pretty soon if Putin falls out of a window and the Ukraine issue is brought to a close, but I think there's a wider effect, that the 'peace is cheap' idea is dead, and that politicians are often asleep at the wheel.

There's a widespread view within European NATO that if Trump had been President, the Baltic States, Moldova, and a slice of Finland would be next.

there's a widespread view in America that he might be President again in 2024 so that all sounds great.

But how could Russia carry on funding this - the planes and men and everything - in the current circumstances ?
Does it depend on people & politicians not being willing to pay more for their gas basically?

 

[The39thStep]

I think I saw something attributed to Von Der Leyen in the last few days saying that the EU would back off the military stuff, leave that to NATO, and concentrate on the economic stuff.

A welcome division of labour imv.

Personally, I am agog at the changes in European security posture in the last 10 days - 2 weeks ago I wrote a piece at work with three conclusions: that the EU as a defence/Foreign Policy actor was dead, that NATO had fragmented with the UK allied with the North and East, and the Germany and Hungary were 'falling out' of NATO, but that unless they chose to leave, they would have a sclerotic effect on NATO's ability to respond to threats.

Not even fit for a garden bonfire now....

A week ago they supplied £500m arms and equipment

 

[cupid_stunt]

New York Times Moscow correspondent ---

 

[weltweit]

..
There's a widespread view within European NATO that if Trump had been President, the Baltic States, Moldova, and a slice of Finland would be next.

Trump would have been a disaster in the current situation.
Fingers crossed he doesn't get in next time.
I wouldn't trust his judgement in such a situation at all.

 

[bimble]

Talking state money.

yeah i have no idea how this works, even if they have many billions in 'reserves' in the state bank what does that mean if the ruble is worth shit and banks are not allowed to trade, no idea.
But you have to pay your soldiers and buy new airoplanes and import spare parts and all that presumably if you want to keep it up.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Green light granted for NATO countries to supply fighter jets to Ukraine, with the US agreeing to backfill any provided, from the FT...

The US is working with Warsaw on a deal to provide Ukraine with Polish fighter jets as Kyiv ratchets up the pressure on the west to boost its air force capabilities so it can repel Russian attacks.
The deal would involve Ukraine receiving Russian-made warplanes from Poland, which would in turn be given F-16s by the US. It comes amid fears Russia will increase air strikes given the slow progress of parts of its ground campaign.
The White House said it was negotiating with Poland and consulting other Nato allies but that there were “a number of challenging practical questions, including how the planes could actually be transferred from Poland to Ukraine”.
“We are also working on the capabilities we could provide to backfill Poland if it decided to transfer planes to Ukraine,” a White House spokesperson said.

Welcome to nginx!

 

[bimble]

Green light granted for NATO countries to supply fighter jets to Ukraine, with the US agreeing to backfill any provided, from the FT...

Welcome to nginx!

This is basically America saying we'll pay you back, to make the fighter jets that never turned up last week happen.

 

[kebabking]

A week ago they supplied £500m arms and equipment

I'll be interested to see the details of that - I think it's a combination of the EU giving Ukr a wedge of cash and saying 'crack on', and the EU compensating some EU states who give stuff to Ukr. That's certainly how the original 'EU to give Ukr fighter jets' thing was devised: it's Poland etc.. giving the Mig-29's to Ukraine, and the EU bunging Warsaw a wedge to help finance some F-16's from the US to replace them.

The EU mil stuff I was referring to was more the mil infrastructure they've been creating - stuff like the battlegroups. I think PESCO will remain, but I think it's about driving a stake through the heart of the French desire to make the EU an alternative to NATO.

 

[frogwoman]

I haven't had any family that I know of for about 100 years but I've spent a lot of time there.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Talking state money.

That trillion dollars was just resting in his account.

 

[The39thStep]

Trump would have been a disaster in the current situation.
Fingers crossed he doesn't get in next time.
I wouldn't trust his judgement in such a situation at all.

With this cunning plan

Speaking with Republican donors Saturday night, former President Donald Trump spitballed a wildly dangerous idea to send American F-22 fighter jets painted with the Chinese flag to bomb Russia.

Trump proposed the United States “bomb the shit out of Russia” with disguised planes, as if that would somehow fool Russian President Vladimir Putin into thinking that the CPP had attacked his country. “And then we say, China did it, we didn’t do it, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch,” Trump said, according to The Washington Post, which obtained a recording of the speech. (To be clear, when Trump says “we sit back and watch,” he’s talking about a war that would kill thousands or millions of people)

 

[The39thStep]

I'll be interested to see the details of that - I think it's a combination of the EU giving Ukr a wedge of cash and saying 'crack on', and the EU compensating some EU states who give stuff to Ukr. That's certainly how the original 'EU to give Ukr fighter jets' thing was devised: it's Poland etc.. giving the Mig-29's to Ukraine, and the EU bunging Warsaw a wedge to help finance some F-16's from the US to replace them.

The EU mil stuff I was referring to was more the mil infrastructure they've been creating - stuff like the battlegroups. I think PESCO will remain, but I think it's about driving a stake through the heart of the French desire to make the EU an alternative to NATO.

Haven't the detail sorry, just saw the headline in a Portuguese paper

 

[Diamond]

There was a fascinating detail from this podcast (highly recommended) that I heard earlier today - a significant number of the senior officers (and even more of the NCOs) in the Russian armed forces are ethnic Ukrainians:

Currents 055: Paul Goble on Putin's Strategic Mistakes - The Jim Rutt Show

Continuing his series on the situation in Ukraine, Jim talks with Paul Goble, a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious issues in Eurasia.

www.jimruttshow.com

 

[Weller]

Dont wish to derail this thread as only slightly connected but totally missed the other news perhaps being buried whilst busy with this
Perhaps we need him back as defense minister to tell Putin to "go away and shut up" again
I mean seriously Gavin Williamson a fucking knighthood

Arise, Sir Gavin Williamson, for services to intergalactic idiocy The words ‘Sir Gavin Williamson’ might sound horrifying but they are, surely, a lot less horrifying than ‘defence secretary Gavin Williamson’

 

[The39thStep]

Probably putting the finishing touches on a video to promote An Important Crowdfunding Initiative as we speak

He's just joined Britain First , Anne Marie Waters lot according to Nick Lowles

 

[bimble]

With this cunning plan

fucking hell. It's not funny is it really, cos it's basically a throw of the dice that man isn't the president now. And it isn't at all impossible that he will be again very soon. He thought Putin was his mate so he's really cross, his friend misbehaving and making him look bad

 

[The39thStep]

fucking hell. It's not funny is it really, cos it's basically a throw of the dice that man isn't the president now. And it isn't at all impossible that he will be again very soon. He thought Putin was his mate so he's really cross.

There's a bit more you might find interesting. (This is from Rolling Stone btw but there's also an article in The Washington Pots who had the tape of the speech)

In addition to proposing a plan so stupid it belongs in an episode of Looney Toons, Trump claimed that Putin would have never attacked Ukraine while he was in the White House. “I knew Putin very well. He would not have done it. He would have never done it,” Trump said. Earlier on in the Ukraine conflict, Trump praised Putin, hailing him as “savvy” and “genius” when he sent Russian troops into portions of Ukraine. And while president, he delayed sending congressionally-approved military aid to Ukraine, trying to use it as leverage to strong-arm President Volodymyr Zelensky into manufacturing dirt on the Biden family.

Trump’s wide-ranging speech to donors often elicited laughter from around 250 Republicans in the room at the New Orleans Four Seasons, according to the Post. At one point, the former president expressed envy of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, describing Kim’s hold over North Korea as “total control” and saying he was impressed with how Kim’s generals and staff “cowered” in his presence. “His people were sitting at attention,” Trump said. “I looked at my people and said, ‘I want my people to act like that.'”