Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

-

A captured officer explaining what it is like to find himself fighting a war that he was lied to about the purpose of, finding himself amongst people he sees as brothers and whom he has no interest in killing. Says talk to any soldier they’ll say the same, and has a suggestion for how soldiers on both sides could help reduce the disaster.

 

[Pickman's model]

A captured intelligence officer explaining what it is like to find himself fighting a war that he was lied to about the purpose of, finding himself amongst people he sees as brothers and whom he has no interest in killing. Says talk to any soldier they’ll say the same, and has a suggestion for how soldiers on both sides could help reduce the disaster.

Thank you

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Fuck sakes Germany

The ex-chancellor Gerhard Schröder heads the shareholders’ committee of Nord Stream AG. He is also chairman of the board of the Russian state oil company Rosneft, and in early February was nominated to serve on the board of Gazprom. He has issued statements deploring military conflict in Ukraine, but there is so far no sign of him renouncing these posts.

 

[spitfire]

Fuck sakes Germany

The ex-chancellor Gerhard Schröder heads the shareholders’ committee of Nord Stream AG. He is also chairman of the board of the Russian state oil company Rosneft, and in early February was nominated to serve on the board of Gazprom. He has issued statements deploring military conflict in Ukraine, but there is so far no sign of him renouncing these posts.

He’s not getting an easy ride of it from the Germans for the few bits I’ve seen. Sorry they aren’t handy right now for me to post.

 

[steeplejack]

All sorts of aircraft from fighters to heavy planes, helicopters & missiles headed Ukraine’s way this evening sadly.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Listening to this is worth ten minutes of your attention.

Because...? Maybe summarise the video too, like the faq says

I went into more detail on this on the other thread this morning.

 

[DaveCinzano]

A captured intelligence officer explaining what it is like to find himself fighting a war that he was lied to about the purpose of, finding himself amongst people he sees as brothers and whom he has no interest in killing. Says talk to any soldier they’ll say the same, and has a suggestion for how soldiers on both sides could help reduce the disaster.

He's not an intelligence officer, he's a riot police officer (SOBR).

 

[kebabking]

Ahem to your last sentence. The interesting thing/speculation for me will be the possible direction of the EU as a military force .

I think I saw something attributed to Von Der Leyen in the last few days saying that the EU would back off the military stuff, leave that to NATO, and concentrate on the economic stuff.

A welcome division of labour imv.

Personally, I am agog at the changes in European security posture in the last 10 days - 2 weeks ago I wrote a piece at work with three conclusions: that the EU as a defence/Foreign Policy actor was dead, that NATO had fragmented with the UK allied with the North and East, and the Germany and Hungary were 'falling out' of NATO, but that unless they chose to leave, they would have a sclerotic effect on NATO's ability to respond to threats.

Not even fit for a garden bonfire now....

 

[bimble]

I went into more detail on this on the other thread this morning.

this is the full length version. extraordinary bit of film i think, as a document, if films are documents.

 

[bimble]

I think I saw something attributed to Von Der Leyen in the last few days saying that the EU would back off the military stuff, leave that to NATO, and concentrate on the economic stuff.

A welcome division of labour imv.

Personally, I am agog at the changes in European security posture in the last 10 days - 2 weeks ago I wrote a piece at work with three conclusions: that the EU as a defence/Foreign Policy actor was dead, that NATO had fragmented with the UK allied with the North and East, and the Germany and Hungary were 'falling out' of NATO, but that unless they chose to leave, they would have a sclerotic effect on NATO's ability to respond to threats.

Not even fit for a garden bonfire now....

yep. even in an imagined world where Putin decided to call it a day tomorrow, the changes brought about by this past week will be huge.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think I saw something attributed to Von Der Leyen in the last few days saying that the EU would back off the military stuff, leave that to NATO, and concentrate on the economic stuff.

A welcome division of labour imv.

Personally, I am agog at the changes in European security posture in the last 10 days - 2 weeks ago I wrote a piece at work with three conclusions: that the EU as a defence/Foreign Policy actor was dead, that NATO had fragmented with the UK allied with the North and East, and the Germany and Hungary were 'falling out' of NATO, but that unless they chose to leave, they would have a sclerotic effect on NATO's ability to respond to threats.

Not even fit for a garden bonfire now....

Curious to see how the balance of power in the EU has flipped from Germany to France in the space of 10 days. Seems they thought economic might Uber Alles.

 

[andysays]

Nah if he wants to manufacture NATO involvement as an excuse for something he'll just do it without needing to use 2 UK randoms capture.

While this is true, it does appear that there is some concern about the issue of current serving members of armed forces getting involved

Don't fight in Ukraine - military boss tells Britons​

Senior UK military officers are genuinely worried that some British troops - regulars or reservists - might try to join the battle in Ukraine and, in doing so, risk handing Russia a propaganda victory.
Last week the Chief of Defence People, Lt Gen James Swift, sent out a message to the chain of command stressing that UK military personnel were "not authorised" to travel there.
He said that if there was any suspicion that troops were trying to make their way to Ukraine then it should be reported immediately to the Service Police.
The message warned that if serving British military personnel went to fight in Ukraine then they were putting not only their lives in danger but they also risked giving "the mistaken perception" to Russia that Britain had sent in troops to engage in hostilities.
Adm Sir Tony Radakin has now underlined that message, saying it would be "unlawful and unhelpful".
At present the MoD does not believe there are any examples of full-time British military personnel going absent to fight in Ukraine. But it's harder for them to keep tabs on reservists who often also have another career.

 

[existentialist]

All sorts of aircraft from fighters to heavy planes, helicopters & missiles headed Ukraine’s way this evening sadly.

From that link, a thought-provoking piece - why a no fly zone would play right into Putin's hands.

putin’s wish

Many people in Ukraine and the West continue to demand that NATO impose no-fly zone over Ukraine to protect civilians. This is a…

medium.com

 

[bimble]

Curious to see how the balance of power in the EU has flipped from Germany to France in the space of 10 days. Seems they thought economic might Uber Alles.

yeah maybe one of the things that will not survive this is the idea that if you do lots of business with someone that makes them into your friend, or at least not a threat, 'free trade' as the end of history etc.

 

[existentialist]

yep. even in an imagined world where Putin decided to call it a day tomorrow, the changes brought about by this past week will be huge.

I was just musing about the level of FOMO that might start to be experienced by a UK government that has so jingoistically and bloodymindedly flounced out of Europe because it wanted to do its own chest-pounding posturing, suddenly finding itself having sand kicked in its face by a newly-muscular Europe. Muahaha.

 

[bimble]

I was just musing about the level of FOMO that might start to be experienced by a UK government that has so jingoistically and bloodymindedly flounced out of Europe because it wanted to do its own chest-pounding posturing, suddenly finding itself having sand kicked in its face by a newly-muscular Europe. Muahaha.

yep lets not go there but have been wondering would we have brexited after this.

 

[Flavour]

Lots and lots of reports of Russian aircraft being shot down. Even if it's only a small % of the total, those are losses which won't be as easily replaced as the civilian trucks being sent in on freight trains to replace the loss of logistics vehicles.

 

[nogojones]

I think I saw something attributed to Von Der Leyen in the last few days saying that the EU would back off the military stuff, leave that to NATO, and concentrate on the economic stuff.

A welcome division of labour imv.

Personally, I am agog at the changes in European security posture in the last 10 days - 2 weeks ago I wrote a piece at work with three conclusions: that the EU as a defence/Foreign Policy actor was dead, that NATO had fragmented with the UK allied with the North and East, and the Germany and Hungary were 'falling out' of NATO, but that unless they chose to leave, they would have a sclerotic effect on NATO's ability to respond to threats.

Not even fit for a garden bonfire now....

Will they pay you overtime to write a new one?

 

[DaveCinzano]

Will they pay you overtime to write a new one?

#glasshalffull

 

[bimble]

is this going to go on for years ? Just for hard practical reasons It can't go on for long at this level of intensity can it? i mean soldiers lives and billions of money a day on military hardware getting shot out of the sky etc.

 

[Pickman's model]

is this going to go on for years ? Just for hard practical reasons It can't go on for long at this level of intensity can it? i mean soldiers lives and billions of money a day on military hardware getting shot out of the sky etc.

Yes, yes it can.

 

[bimble]

Yes, yes it can.

at this level of intensity no it can't. it will have to turn into something else.

 

[cupid_stunt]

He's not an intelligence officer, he's a riot police officer (SOBR).

And, one thing that riot cops tend not to be equipped with is intelligence.

 

[bimble]

And, one thing that riot cops tend not to be equipped with is intelligence.

have you watched the video? Guy is not stupid, at all.

 

[emanymton]

is this going to go on for years ? Just for hard practical reasons It can't go on for long at this level of intensity can it? i mean soldiers lives and billions of money a day on military hardware getting shot out of the sky etc.

No, but this is not going away any time soon. If it ends with Russia occupying all or part of Ukraine then that could be years. And if not that then years of border trouble and skirmishes.

 

[A380]

yep lets not go there but have been wondering would we have brexited after this.

No, Putin's got no money to pay for a campaign...

 

[nogojones]

#glasshalffull

#doublebubble

 

[Pickman's model]

at this level of intensity no it can't. it will have to turn into something else.

Sure they said the same in 1914

 

[A380]

And, one thing that riot cops tend not to be equipped with is intelligence.

Way to underestimate your opponents...

 

[Pickman's model]

No, Putin's got no money to pay for a campaign...

Have all the billions already disappeared?