Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[littlebabyjesus]

Some decent points as usual but it does come over as Gray doing his "why recent events prove I was right" bit.

Yeah, this. Gray has made a lot of predictions over the years, some of which have proved right but many of which have proved wrong.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

obviously didnt read it - it concludes the west needs to get tooled up and recognise that Russia isnt a liberal actor but a warring imperial state

Russia not being a Liberal actor was realised about 10 years ago at least. It being warring imperial state a couple of years later. This is hardly news to anyone here is it? It's certainly been underestimated though.

 

[Yossarian]

obviously didnt read it - it concludes the west needs to get tooled up and recognise that Russia isnt a liberal actor but a warring imperial state

A piece denouncing Putin's barbaric invasion and urging Western countries to build up their militaries is a little off-brand for that particular poster, tbf.

 

[Bingoman]

Macron has told Putin that Nuclear sites must be protect?

 

[Rimbaud]

You can register in seconds and get 4 articles for free. And then re-register. It's a bit long to post here.

I read it now.

It's a good article.

However is it not arguing the opposite to what you have been saying? The conclusion seems to be that the European liberal dream of harmony among nations is not shared by Putin (and not just Putin) who lives in a world of ruthless realpolitik. The solution John Gray advocates is to abandon that dream and start rearming and showing strength to counter Putin.

You seem to have been saying the opposite, suggesting that if we give Putin everything he wants and don't do anything to prevent his goals then we will have peace. And this is a result of NATO being aggressive. Gray is basically calling for NATO to take a harder line.

My own opinion, is that Gray is right that the 90s fantasies about globalisation were naive, because trade and commerce in itself does not bring peace and democracy automatically as many starry eyed liberals once assumed - China is also instructive here.

However, it is true that the EU has had unprecedented peace. I think the lesson here is that supra-national political and legal integration can render geopolitical squabbles less important, but the market and mutual trade in themselves do not prevent war or conflict, nor do they bring democracy. If anything, globalisation from the 90s onwards has weakened democratic structures by reducing the power of elected governments to shape their society and weakening the negotiating power of labour.

Russia's descent into something similar to a Saudi Arabia style petro-state, with Putin and the oligarchs taking the place of the House of Saud, is itself a consequence of globalisation. Russia manufactures almost nothing, partly because any local industry would get undercut by products made in China or elsewhere.

I don't think there are any easy answers to this.

 

[RD2003]

A piece denouncing Putin's barbaric invasion and urging Western countries to build up their militaries is a little off-brand for that particular poster, tbf.

Unlike many on here, or so it seems, I read the views of all sides. That doesn't stop me seeing all this as a foolish and tragic adventure, and its armchair supporters as dupes for their own ruling class and the arms industry, both of which manufactured this unnecessary war.

 

[Dogsauce]

Why? Both he and his child could have had kids at 21 which is not abnormal

It is to the Daily Mail.

 

[The39thStep]

Hope we're not getting to the stage where everything that isn't outright pro-war is dismissed as 'Putin Propaganda.'

I think we're past that stage now and beginning to get some better posts

 

[dilute micro]

Yes, but who are we sending the message to?

To the guys sitting at the end of Putin's table. The chess game is always being played. And carrier groups are the first piece to get moved. Peacetime, wartime - there's no difference. Moving one to a hot zone is nothing new. And the Russians know this from half a century of seeing it done. It's more normal and expected than it seems.

 

[platinumsage]

These were promised less than a week ago, now already in the field:

 

[Raheem]

I like reading John Gray, but his daily bread is being wrong. NATO doesn't need to rearm. If this episode has any lessons, it's that 2% GDP is probably overkill.

 

[The39thStep]

I read it now.

It's a good article.

However is it not arguing the opposite to what you have been saying? The conclusion seems to be that the European liberal dream of harmony among nations is not shared by Putin (and not just Putin) who lives in a world of ruthless realpolitik. The solution John Gray advocates is to abandon that dream and start rearming and showing strength to counter Putin.

You seem to have been saying the opposite, suggesting that if we give Putin everything he wants and don't do anything to prevent his goals then we will have peace. And this is a result of NATO being aggressive. Gray is basically calling for NATO to take a harder line.

My own opinion, is that Gray is right that the 90s fantasies about globalisation were naive, because trade and commerce in itself does not bring peace and democracy automatically as many starry eyed liberals once assumed - China is also instructive here.

However, it is true that the EU has had unprecedented peace. I think the lesson here is that supra-national political and legal integration can render geopolitical squabbles less important, but the market and mutual trade in themselves do not prevent war or conflict, nor do they bring democracy. If anything, globalisation from the 90s onwards has weakened democratic structures by reducing the power of elected governments to shape their society and weakening the negotiating power of labour.

Russia's descent into something similar to a Saudi Arabia style petro-state, with Putin and the oligarchs taking the place of the House of Saud, is itself a consequence of globalisation. Russia manufactures almost nothing, partly because any local industry would get undercut by products made in China or elsewhere.

I don't think there are any easy answers to this.

Ahem to your last sentence. The interesting thing/speculation for me will be the possible direction of the EU as a military force .

 

[nogojones]

Paywall, could you post the contents? I'd be interested to read it.

GitHub - iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome: Bypass Paywalls web browser extension for Chrome and Firefox.

Bypass Paywalls web browser extension for Chrome and Firefox. - iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome

github.com

 

[gosub]

Ahem to your last sentence. The interesting thing/speculation for me will be the possible direction of the EU as a military force .

Germany as well as doubling this years defense budget nad accerating FCAS, its buying some F35C's off the peg which would cook a French or Spainish aircraft carriers deck

 

[contadino]

Truss gets another slap down.

Defence chief contradicts Liz Truss over idea of Britons going to fight in Ukraine

Sir Tony Radakin says it would be unlawful for individuals to travel to offer military help

www.theguardian.com

If the Russians capture a couple of have-a-go English knobends, how does that play out? Who's to say them being there isn't state sanctioned, particularly in light of Lamentable Liz's public endorsement.

That'd just be spun as NATO member sending troops.

 

[ska invita]

[/QUOTE]

These were promised less than a week ago, now already in the field:

Somebody was telling me today how much hardware has been promised with fresh deals over the last couple of days.
It sounded major - I couldnt take it in. Has anyone got a summary? How much of this is public information?

 

[weepiper]

Raging Alcoholic Spice, according to my friend who works in the Foreign Office.

 

[MickiQ]

Raging Alcoholic Spice, according to my friend who works in the Foreign Office.

Fucking Useless Spice might be more appropriate

 

[sleaterkinney]

Not saying the invasion is going badly but:

 

[Artaxerxes]

Raging Alcoholic Spice, according to my friend who works in the Foreign Office.

I thought it was Backdoor spice?

Or is that just private eye style misogynistic gossip

 

[LDC]

If the Russians capture a couple of have-a-go English knobends, how does that play out? Who's to say them being there isn't state sanctioned, particularly in light of Lamentable Liz's public endorsement.

That'd just be spun as NATO member sending troops.

Nah if he wants to manufacture NATO involvement as an excuse for something he'll just do it without needing to use 2 UK randoms capture.

 

[_Russ_]

Possibly an upcoming flash point: https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/Transnistria?src=hashtag_click

 

[bluescreen]

Belarus defence minister quits

 

[platinumsage]

Possibly an upcoming flash point: https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/Transnistria?src=hashtag_click

They've been preparing:

 

[not-bono-ever]

The sheriff in Tiraspol would see his huge business interests destroyed if transnistria gets involved.

 

[agricola]

Belarus defence minister quits

I wouldn't put too much faith in that story tbh - it appears to be based on a photo of a letter that a Ukrainian minister put on Twitter. How they got the letter is a big question.

 

[bluescreen]

I wouldn't put too much faith in that story tbh - it appears to be based on a photo of a letter that a Ukrainian minister put on Twitter. How they got the letter is a big question.

Should have put it on the other thread.

 

[existentialist]

Not saying the invasion is going badly but:

From that thread...

 

[bimble]

Listening to this is worth ten minutes of your attention.

 

[Pickman's model]

Listening to this is worth ten minutes of your attention.

Because...? Maybe summarise the video too, like the faq says