Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[teqniq]

Women’s basketball superstar Brittney Griner detained in Russia

Political prisoner.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Yeh I love being told what I've just said: the brexit shits expected something wholly different as did putin

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic, or double sarcastic.

 

[Humberto]

Think the guy is vainglorious and will fail.

 

[nogojones]

Think the guy is vainglorious and will fail.

Which one?

 

[smokedout]

Depending on your view, and the stink of corruption in the Tory govt, the brexiteer thing pretty much was the russia thing.

Major disaster capitalists owning smaller wannabe disaster capitalists in what can only be described as a massive pyramid scheme.

As in Hungary.

Last 30 years of politics mantra:

Money talks. Bullshit walks.

That's basically brexiteering and disaster capitalism in a nutshell.

Yeah that's Putin, devious and cunning enough to trick over half the UK population into voting to leave the EU, but so stupid and out of touch that he went to war without considering anything but the most optimistic outcome and had no plan if that failed. This is just cartoon stuff.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I have no idea what Cid's editing skills are like.

I was talking about the video that Cid commented on, the one that has Putin apparently at a table with trainee air stewards, which might've been faked/green screened, because it looks like he's waving his hand behind a microphone that sort of looks like it's in front of the person next to him, but I wondered if it might just have been the camera angle.

Thought you might be able to comment from a video editing perspective, if you reckon it's faked or a camera angle thing?

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Yeah that's Putin, devious and cunning enough to trick over half the UK population into voting to leave the EU, but so stupid and out of touch that he went to war without considering anything but the most optimistic outcome and had no plan if that failed. This is just cartoon stuff.

You sound like my Hungarian Fidesz supporting relatives.

I never said any of the shit you mouthed off. But you believe that I did.

What I said, if you want to read closely, is that a kleprocacy has been operating in its own interests for 20+ years. The Russia report would probably verify this. Not that it would be any conspiracy, because as I said, mone talks .. bullshit walks.. this is the way the world works.

It's a deep fucking rot, bolstered by economic denialism. People will believe their own hype.

You thinking I said and believe this massive conspiracy theory is clownworld stuff.




Sometimes, people believe a lot of bullshit because it suits their feelz.

 

[Diamond]

This appears to be footage of the Russians sending up any old banger to the front to solve their logistics problems. The prof whose thread it is also sets out in some detail why he thinks the Ukranians now have a clear path to victory (destroy Russian military trucks). The details are pretty remarkable - if true, the Russians are in deep, deep trouble.



The front vehicles even have that characteristic "Z" marking.

 

[two sheds]

at least they'll have proper tyres

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sure, but it was posted by diamond who... er. yeah. Nothing to do with kaka tim, who disco was using that against.

Ok that post that he was banned for was calling out a very particular post though.

It's fucked up that kermit has been banned from the thread for that. I agree with him . It was war porn. Wtf is happening when you get banned for calling it out?

 

[Artaxerxes]

at least they'll have proper tyres

You’ve not been watching dashcam videos

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As zahir pointed out here, he'd previously posted a link to some rubbish by a scumfront shithead called Paul Antonopoulous, so maybe he needs to have a chat with himself before carrying on with his nazisthisnazisthat nonsense.

Spoiler: antonopoulos

View attachment 313041

Post that up and call him out as a hypocrite then. Don't support his banning from the thread.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

If you don't ask you don't get. And it creates a negotiating position. "Well, if you won't do the no fly zone, what can you help us with?". Publicising it puts pressure on them cos it makes them look like they aren't helping.

Also potentially creates a false sense of security? ie reinforces the notion that Ukrainian airspace is open to Russian air force sorties, which lulls them into a false sense or security, because they know no one's enforcing a no fly zone, but in the meantime they're being knocked out of the sky by ground to air missiles.

 

[Dogsauce]

Ok that post that he was banned for was calling out a very particular post though.

It's fucked up that kermit has been banned from the thread for that. I agree with him . It was war porn. Wtf is happening when you get banned for calling it out?

I suspect it wasn’t that post specifically causing the ban, he was cunting people off quite a bit in some of the earlier postings so probably more to do with that. Does seem a bit harsh, seen worse, but still but only a day ban.

 

[Raheem]

Yeah that's Putin, devious and cunning enough to trick over half the UK population into voting to leave the EU, but so stupid and out of touch that he went to war without considering anything but the most optimistic outcome and had no plan if that failed. This is just cartoon stuff.

He donated money to UKIP. I don't think anyone believes that takes a genius.

 

[dilute micro]

Best line at the very end.

 

[Spymaster]

It's fucked up that kermit has been banned from the thread for that. I agree with him . It was war porn. Wtf is happening when you get banned for calling it out?

DK's been banned?

I disagree that there's been any war porn on here, but that's bollocks if true.

 

[Raheem]

Also potentially creates a false sense of security? ie reinforces the notion that Ukrainian airspace is open to Russian air force sorties, which lulls them into a false sense or security, because they know no one's enforcing a no fly zone, but in the meantime they're being knocked out of the sky by ground to air missiles.

Yes, I think this is part of. NATO don't want to do a no-fly zone in the first place, but also why would they when Russia is not dominating the aerial battle anyway?

I don't buy at all the idea that it's simply about fear of nuclear war. Of course the risk has to weigh heavily. But it's nonsense that it simply can't be done.

if NATO announced that they would enforce a short no-fly zone, what would happen is that Russian planes wouldn't fly for a short period.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Think thats all of it quoted beneath your quote as not quite got the hang of that on phone so expand it but not read it myself yet though "

"Bennett, a religious Jew, flew to Moscow in violation of Sabbath law because Judaism permits this when the aim is to preserve human life, his spokesperson said.
He was accompanied by his Ukrainian-born housing minister, Zeev Elkin. Elkin had in the past accompanied former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an interpreter in his talks with Putin."

My face value interpretation of that trip - and bearing in mind Russia/Israel's communication/collaboration re Syria, and the Russian's killing of an Israeli citizen in Ukraine in this invasion, and Zelensky's expressed disappointment of not enough support forthcoming to date from Israel - is that it's very significant for an observant Jew to be breaking shabbat rules, that's not something that's done lightly, and I think being accompanied by someone Ukrainian born is also significant.

When I first saw that he'd flown to Moscow, I was thinking it was more of a supportive gesture towards Russia, but taking those factors into account, I'd say the Israeli intervention possibly errs more on the side of supporting Ukraine, and particularly it's Jewish population, or at least being a more neutral mediator, rather than taking Russia's side, which was my original assumption.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

Yeah that's Putin, devious and cunning enough to trick over half the UK population into voting to leave the EU, but so stupid and out of touch that he went to war without considering anything but the most optimistic outcome and had no plan if that failed. This is just cartoon stuff.

Both things can be true, they're not mutually exclusive.

It's entirely possible that Brexiteers were manipulated through social media and false information, see The Great Hack on Netflix re whistleblower Brittany Keiser.

And it's also entirely possible that Russia overlooked/misjudged the invasion in terms of mud season, and conscripts being misinformed that Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms, and Belorussian army units revolting and threatening to surrender and/or kill officers rather than go to war against Ukraine, and Russian higher ups not taking account of corruption, lack of maintenance, siphoning of of resources, and the Ukrainian people resisting so strongly instead of capitulating, etc.

It's possible for both to be true.

 

[MrCurry]

This FSB letter is quite a read. I’m not sure who it’s written to, but it goes into detail about how bad things are for the Russians.



A slightly sketchy translation of the letter itself, which I picked up from the replies to this tweet is is here

 

[bimble]

Over half the Russion army massed on the border suggests they were well aware that this may not be over in a few days, even if that's what they hoped. Or do you think they were just on a day trip and it was pure luck they happened to be there when a more limited surgical assault failed?

I was just saying that everything i've read for the past week suggests that they thought it would be over by now.

The military stuff is all new to me so i'm just taking on board what those who know about such things have said (about tanks and supplies and the troops running out of food and fuel because they only brought enough for a few days etc).

This really stuck in my mind though, i don't know what the website is but it's full-on Russian propaganda and it says :

" This is a special operation to denazify the country. ..now, when Russian troops begin to liberate Kyiv from the Nazis and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. .And the fall of the Ukrainian capital, according to analysts, should occur within the next two days."

That was published on 27th February, i'm surprised its still up.


from here:

for example Военный эксперт назвал спецоперацию в Донбассе «принуждением Украины к миру»

what do you make of that?
Everything else in the article seems to be faithful parroting of the Kremlin line so why would they write that the capital would have fallen by 1st March if they were not expecting it to be over by now.

 

[Aladdin]

This bit is terrifying.

"real global horror will begin by the summer - global famine is inevitable
Most of the worlds grain comes from Ukraine and Russia."

 

[strung out]

Yeah that's Putin, devious and cunning enough to trick over half the UK population into voting to leave the EU, but so stupid and out of touch that he went to war without considering anything but the most optimistic outcome and had no plan if that failed. This is just cartoon stuff.

Who should we believe, all the renowned military academics and current/former armed forces staff who have been carefully analysing the vast amounts of information online and intelligence reports from Russia and Ukraine, or smokedout on Urban75 who reckons Putin has such a galaxy brain that he can't possibly not have planned for this?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yes, I think this is part of. NATO don't want to do a no-fly zone in the first place, but also why would they when Russia is not dominating the aerial battle anyway?

I don't buy at all the idea that it's simply about fear of nuclear war. Of course the risk has to weigh heavily. But it's nonsense that it simply can't be done.

if NATO announced that they would enforce a short no-fly zone, what would happen is that Russian planes wouldn't fly for a short period.

It's not just about planes, to enforce a no fly zone they would have to be prepared to hit ground targets, possibly some even within Russia, which would get very messy.

In addition to monitoring, fighter aircraft are needed to enforce a no-fly zone. Ben Hodges, who was the commander of the U.S. Army Europe and now works for the U.S.-based Center for European Policy Analysis, said: "You'd have aircraft that are prepared for air-to-air [combat], to shoot down other aircraft.

You'd have aircraft that are prepared to shoot down drones and you would want to be prepared to have other aircraft that are prepared to hit ground targets, air defense, for example. So, there's a mix of capabilities that you would need, including the AWACS and including the helicopters that would be used to go in and rescue [potentially downed pilots]."

According to Hodges, there are other reasons to be cautious. "We would never put pilots up in the air if we were not prepared to destroy enemy air defenses on the ground. So now you're talking about shooting, attacking Russian ground targets inside Ukraine and probably even inside Russia," Hodges said.

"And then another consideration is that we would never put pilots in the air if we were not prepared to go in and pick them up if they were shot down and had to parachute. So, you've got to have the possibility of picking up a naval pilot on the ground in Ukraine or even in Russia."

Why A No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine Probably Won't Fly

RFE/RL takes a closer look at what a no-fly zone would mean, why it could prove so difficult to impose over Ukraine, and if there are other, similar options that could be considered.

www.rferl.org

 

[cupid_stunt]

DK's been banned?

I disagree that there's been any war porn on here, but that's bollocks if true.

On day thread ban only.

 

[LDC]

On day thread ban only.

Shame not longer, he was being a disruptive dick on here, and not by having a different opinion, but by posting incoherent bollocks repeatedly.

 

[DaveCinzano]

[Posted to wrong thread]

 

[kebabking]

An interesting tweet - and an addition to Pickman's model's suggestion of reading through the TRADOC (US Army Training and Doctrine Command) library on what's happening in Ukraine.

 

[LDC]

All this reading and listening to military strategy surely I am at least a Colonel now?