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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

elbows said:
Which is consistent with what Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) said about Putins initial plan anticipating it taking two weeks, which I mentioned much earlier in this thread and have repeatedly brought up since. If that timescale is exceeded then I'll be able to say something different instead of just repeating myself too much. ( Ukraine and the Russian invasion, Feb 2022 )

I am also wondering if the repeated focus on the convoy north of Kyiv is distracting from the Russian forces that are heading in the Kyiv direction from the east. Is anybody focussing on that side of things? I havent been spending much time trying to find detail of that force and its progress or setbacks, but it does rather leap out at me whenever I see maps like this one and the BBC equivalent:

Click to expand...

This might be useful/interesting when thinking about Russian controlled areas and advances.

757BC48A-3730-441B-9116-34A83938E8B7.jpeg

From here: Putin’s War: The Daily Ukraine Brief --- March 4th - 24hr to 3pm
 
Gramsci said:
I really won't have this about WW2. There is separate thread debunking this on this forum.

You say you wouldn't support Nato troops in. So I'm guessing you don't support No Fly Zone.

So difference is between sending arms or not.

Sending arms and providing "support". If the present Ukraine government doesn't reckon that is enough what then?

Is not supporting a No Fly Zone tantamount to being compared with being an "appeaser"? That after all is request from the Ukrainian government.
Click to expand...
What are you not having and what is debunked? It's a moral comparison about not leaving people to be murdered or oppressed by an authoritarian dictator after having their homeland invaded.

If Russia didn't have nukes, I'd likely support further NATO involvement to ensure the Ukrainians were supported in their struggle against being invaded and conquered by an oppressive regime, but the fact is, they do, and like it or not, if you don't want to risk instant war with a country armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons, NATO needs to avoid directly engaging Russians.
 
Cid said:
I've hit my reuters article limit, what does this say?

www.reuters.com

Israeli PM meets Putin in Moscow, then speaks with Zelenskiy by phone

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on Saturday to discuss the war in Ukraine and later spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Bennett's spokesperson said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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JERUSALEM, March 5 (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on Saturday to discuss the war in Ukraine and later spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Bennett's spokesperson said.
Bennett is coordinating his efforts in the crisis with the United States, France and Germany, an Israeli official said.

After his meeting with Putin, Bennett headed to Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his spokesperson said.

French President Emmanuel Macron had spoken to Bennett before he flew to Moscow to brief him on his own conversations with Putin, the Elysée Palace said.

"They will stay in touch with the aim of obtaining a ceasefire, and this in coordination with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz," an Elysée official said.
Israel, at the behest of Zelenskiy, has offered to mediate in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though officials have previously played down expectations of any breakthrough.

In their three-hour meeting in the Kremlin, the Israeli official said, Bennett also raised with Putin the issue of the large Jewish community caught up in the war in Ukraine.

Israel will send medical teams to Ukraine next week to set up a field hospital that will provide treatment for refugees, its Health Ministry said.

While Israel, a close ally of the United States, has condemned the Russian invasion, voiced solidarity with Kyiv and sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, it has said it will maintain contact with Moscow in the hope of helping to ease the crisis.


Israel, home to a substantial population of immigrants from the former Soviet Union, is also mindful of Moscow's military support for President Bashar al-Assad in next-door Syria, where Israel regularly attacks Iranian and Hezbollah military targets. Communication with Moscow prevents Russian and Israeli forces trading fire by accident. read more

Bennett and Putin also discussed the ongoing talks between world powers, including Russia, and Iran about reviving a 2015 nuclear deal.
Russia said on Saturday that Western sanctions imposed on it over its invasion of Ukraine had become a stumbling block for the Iran nuclear deal. Israel opposes any revival of the deal.
Bennett, a religious Jew, flew to Moscow in violation of Sabbath law because Judaism permits this when the aim is to preserve human life, his spokesperson said.
He was accompanied by his Ukrainian-born housing minister, Zeev Elkin. Elkin had in the past accompanied former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an interpreter in his talks with Putin.
Click to expand...

Think thats all of it quoted beneath your quote as not quite got the hang of that on phone :) so expand it but not read it myself yet though ;)
 
Last edited:
kebabking said:
More Putin stuff.

Fuck alone knows what's going on - he sits at one end of a 50ft table to talk to his most senior mil officers, then fakes an 'up close and personal' briefing on the current operations to a group of (checks notes) trainee air stewards.



The world's on fucking crack.
Click to expand...


<e2a - Crispy cleared it up earlier in fact!>

Fascinating - who do we reckon that video was for then?

Somebody needed to be sent the message that this is a man who is no longer sitting at ridiculously long tables.

Which is, in and of itself, also bullshit.

What's that about? Could it be some kind of court politics going on?
 
Dogsauce said:
That still seems to be spinning the bollocks that Putin assumed it would be over in a couple of days. Captured documents indicated that the military were anticipating it to take around 15 days to achieve their objective (primarily taking Kiev) which we maybe not far off from, heroic narratives aside.
Click to expand...
Not sure what you’re reading but that article does say it was initially expected to be over in 2 weeks not in a couple of days.

His initial calculation seems to have been that Kyiv would fall in two days and the whole operation would be over in a fortnight.
Click to expand...
 
The Ukrainians asking for a no fly zone must know that it isn't possible. I am sure they know about NATO and MAD.

Cruel that it is, they must understand. Why not ask for things that are possible?
 
bimble said:
But that doesn’t apparently tell us anything useful about how long they expected to be fighting for . Absolutely everything else points to them having expected this to be over by now.
Click to expand...

Over half the Russion army massed on the border suggests they were well aware that this may not be over in a few days, even if that's what they hoped. Or do you think they were just on a day trip and it was pure luck they happened to be there when a more limited surgical assault failed?
 
weltweit said:
The Ukrainians asking for a no fly zone must know that it isn't possible. I am sure they know about NATO and MAD.

Cruel that it is, they must understand. Why not ask for things that are possible?
Click to expand...
If you don't ask you don't get. And it creates a negotiating position. "Well, if you won't do the no fly zone, what can you help us with?". Publicising it puts pressure on them cos it makes them look like they aren't helping.
 
smokedout said:
Over half the Russion army massed on the border suggests they were well aware that this may not be over in a few days, even if that's what they hoped. Or do you think they were just on a day trip and it was pure luck they happened to be there when a more limited surgical assault failed?
Click to expand...
That concentration may also have served as a threat of overwhelming force, meaning that capitulation may have come quickly if Ukraine considered what was facing them. There may have been no intent of actually putting them into battle. In the end Ukraine stood up to this threat so it has been used.
 
Dogsauce said:
How many plants can I get in three 5.5m x 2m tunnels? Though leccy is a bit pricey at the moment and we’re quite some distance from the nearest street lamp.

(apologies for the derail :oops:)
Click to expand...
Depends on your set up. Organic in soil 4 plants per square metre. Hydro and clones times that by 4 again.

With the price of leccy you'd be better off growing poppies or just plain drilling for oil or gas.
 
smokedout said:
Over half the Russion army massed on the border suggests they were well aware that this may not be over in a few days, even if that's what they hoped. Or do you think they were just on a day trip and it was pure luck they happened to be there when a more limited surgical assault failed?
Click to expand...
Depends what you mean by "it". The plan was to occupy the country. Obviously the occupation was not going to be over in a few days, and would require a lot of troops in addition to the invasion force.

I think it's beyond obvious that the assumption was that Kyiv would fall almost immediately, and the rest would be mainly mopping-up.
 
Indeliblelink said:
Did we mention this one.
kyivindependent.com

Media: SBU kills member of Ukrainian negotiations team suspected of treason.

According to Ukrainska Pravda sources, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation that met with Russia, was shot dead by the Security Service of Ukraine officers as they were trying to detain him. The man was allegedly Denys Kirieiev, a former deputy chairman of Oschadbank. The SBU had...
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
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saw it but didn't realize why they (allegedly) shot him:eek:
 
Raheem said:
Depends what you mean by "it". The plan was to occupy the country. Obviously the occupation was not going to be over in a few days, and would require a lot of troops in addition to the invasion force.

I think it's beyond obvious that the assumption was that Kyiv would fall almost immediately, and the rest would be mainly mopping-up.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's obvious at all. There will have been a range of scenarios planned for from an easy victory to all our conflict with NATO. Just because the best case scenario failed doesn't mean they are now making it up on the hoof because it was the only plan they had.
 
smokedout said:
Over half the Russion army massed on the border suggests they were well aware that this may not be over in a few days, even if that's what they hoped. Or do you think they were just on a day trip and it was pure luck they happened to be there when a more limited surgical assault failed?
Click to expand...

If they underestimated the global response, misunderstanding the solidarity with those historically on the receiving end.... and if the upper echelons were in such an echo chamber as to believe their own bullshit as to deny reality, then yeah. I definitely believe it could happen.

The heady smell of one's own farts leads to a toxifying mix of incompetence and delusions of grandeur.
 
FabricLiveBaby! said:
If they underestimated the global response, misunderstanding the solidarity with those historically on the receiving end.... and if the upper echelons were in such an echo chamber as to believe their own bullshit as to deny reality, then yeah. I definitely believe it could happen.

The heady smell of one's own farts leads to a toxifying mix of incompetence and delusions of grandeur.
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Not a peculiarly Russia thing as you can see from the brexiteers in government
 
Pickman's model said:
Not a peculiarly Russia thing as you can see from the brexiteers in government
Click to expand...

Depending on your view, and the stink of corruption in the Tory govt, the brexiteer thing pretty much was the russia thing.

Major disaster capitalists owning smaller wannabe disaster capitalists in what can only be described as a massive pyramid scheme.

As in Hungary.

Last 30 years of politics mantra:

Money talks. Bullshit walks.

That's basically brexiteering and disaster capitalism in a nutshell.
 
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