Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Storm Fox]

How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making? does anyone know how to do the paywall thing? Pickman's model maybe?

It's here:

archive.ph

archive.ph

 

[Dogsauce]

And Liverpool

Lost network of secret tunnels running right beneath your feet

It's a hidden world underneath our streets that most people will never see

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk

There’s a substantial amount of tunnels in Leeds too under the University campus and adjoining hospital, I’ve been in quite a few of them back in the days before cheap CCTV and PIR detectors made them off-limits.

Anyway, I’ll be OK because we’ve just broken through the wall at the back of the flat into our very own underground bomb shelter

 

[TopCat]

There’s a substantial amount of tunnels in Leeds too under the University campus and adjoining hospital, I’ve been in quite a few of them back in the days before cheap CCTV and PIR detectors made them off-limits.

Anyway, I’ll be OK because we’ve just broken through the wall at the back of the flat into our very own underground bomb shelter

View attachment 313038

growroom

 

[Dogsauce]

It's here:

archive.ph

archive.ph

That still seems to be spinning the bollocks that Putin assumed it would be over in a couple of days. Captured documents indicated that the military were anticipating it to take around 15 days to achieve their objective (primarily taking Kiev) which we maybe not far off from, heroic narratives aside.

 

[Dogsauce]

growroom

How many plants can I get in three 5.5m x 2m tunnels? Though leccy is a bit pricey at the moment and we’re quite some distance from the nearest street lamp.

(apologies for the derail )

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes. This person agrees with diamond then, and is a professor of war studies. Thanks though your post was very interesting and I enjoyed it.

He posted that very tweet. I wish people would read the thread so things weren't posted over and over

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Day thread ban

Hmmm. You may dislike how he said it, but that post wasn't entirely inaccurate.

You sure you should be policing that?

People need to be careful about what those things.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

apologies, that was a general point on the issue not directed at you! I was just quoting you as a way of continuing the conversation on it as the comment by itself might not have flowed with the main thread which jumps around a bit, if that follows.

Fair enough. Apology accepted. It did seem like a direct reply to me, which was a bit confusing.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[Cid]

Hmmm. You may dislike how he said it, but that post wasn't entirely inaccurate.

You sure you should be policing that?

People need to be careful about what those things.

What what things what?

 

[DaveCinzano]

Oh I didn't clock that was him!



I have little to no knowledge to base it on, or compare it to, but it was a great read I thought, and made lots of sense. It's a bit anthropological, a bit historical, and a bit then using those to explain why the military strategy just didn't work as it was thought it might. It was discussed or at least mentioned somewhere else on the forum. There's a whole load of anthropological stuff used by the US that's a bit related. Human Terrain System - Wikipedia

Anyone interested in the HTS cluster fuck may be interested in digging back through to the beginning via Max Forte's Open/Zero Anthropology.

ZERO ANTHROPOLOGY

ISSN 2562-9948

zeroanthropology.net

 

[LDC]

Anyone interested in the HTS cluster fuck may be interested in digging back through to the beginning via Max Forte's Open/Zero Anthropology.

ZERO ANTHROPOLOGY

ISSN 2562-9948

zeroanthropology.net

What a surprise, they look to be fucked up Covid loons now!

 

[DaveCinzano]

What a surprise, they look to be fucked up Covid loons now!

Innit! But the HTS/HTT stuff in the day was solid.

 

[frogwoman]

Уэнди Шерман: «Мы будем продолжать добиваться того, чтобы президент Путин видел последствия своих действий». Эксклюзивное интервью заместителя Госсекретаря США «Новой газете» — Новая газета

Заместитель Государственного секретаря США Уэнди Шерман (ее еще называют первым заместителем) возглавляла американскую делегацию на январских переговорах в Женеве, посвященных обсуждению мер по обеспечению гарантий безопасности России. Так встречу называли в Москве. В Вашингтоне предпочитали...

novayagazeta.ru

It's true - война (war) is replaced with 'word prohibited by Russian authorities'

 

[bimble]

That still seems to be spinning the bollocks that Putin assumed it would be over in a couple of days. Captured documents indicated that the military were anticipating it to take around 15 days to achieve their objective (primarily taking Kiev) which we maybe not far off from, heroic narratives aside.

Heard about those 2 week documents but hadn’t really understood what they were.
This explains:

Alleged Captured Documents Imply Ukraine Invasion Planned In January

The purported Russian documents, stamped January 18, 2022, establish call signs and radio frequencies for operations for 15 days between Feb. 20 and March 6, and include maps detailing plans to seize the city of Melitopol. Throughout January, Putin insisted he had no plans to invade Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

So if genuine the 15 days thing was just that those plans included that many days of planned radio frequencies ending tomorrow, on 6th march.
But that doesn’t apparently tell us anything useful about how long they expected to be fighting for . Absolutely everything else points to them having expected this to be over by now.

 

[Cid]

How many plants can I get in three 5.5m x 2m tunnels? Though leccy is a bit pricey at the moment and we’re quite some distance from the nearest street lamp.

(apologies for the derail )

14 large/tunnel, though the corridor in the middle would be a bit awkward when full grown.

 

[Dogsauce]

War Pigs
Special military operations Pigs
Word prohibited by Russian authorities Pigs

 

[elbows]

That still seems to be spinning the bollocks that Putin assumed it would be over in a couple of days. Captured documents indicated that the military were anticipating it to take around 15 days to achieve their objective (primarily taking Kiev) which we maybe not far off from, heroic narratives aside.

Which is consistent with what Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) said about Putins initial plan anticipating it taking two weeks, which I mentioned much earlier in this thread and have repeatedly brought up since. If that timescale is exceeded then I'll be able to say something different instead of just repeating myself too much. ( Ukraine and the Russian invasion, Feb 2022 )

I am also wondering if the repeated focus on the convoy north of Kyiv is distracting from the Russian forces that are heading in the Kyiv direction from the east. Is anybody focussing on that side of things? I havent been spending much time trying to find detail of that force and its progress or setbacks, but it does rather leap out at me whenever I see maps like this one and the BBC equivalent:

 

[DaveCinzano]

Уэнди Шерман: «Мы будем продолжать добиваться того, чтобы президент Путин видел последствия своих действий». Эксклюзивное интервью заместителя Госсекретаря США «Новой газете» — Новая газета

Заместитель Государственного секретаря США Уэнди Шерман (ее еще называют первым заместителем) возглавляла американскую делегацию на январских переговорах в Женеве, посвященных обсуждению мер по обеспечению гарантий безопасности России. Так встречу называли в Москве. В Вашингтоне предпочитали...

novayagazeta.ru

It's true - война (war) is replaced with 'word prohibited by Russian authorities'

This is going to seriously fuck with Edwin Starr's well-honed performances

 

[Gramsci]

I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with adopting an anti war position, or as close to one as possible given the circumstances.

You say though that you're sceptical of NATO involvement even to the extent of sending weapons. The fact is though that without the intelligence, training and weaponry support provided by the west, you're effectively condemning Ukraine and its people to rule by an oppressive dictatorship, the stripping of its resources by a country that gives zero shits about the human and environmental cost, and the death of anyone connected to maintaining a liberal democracy in the country.

Those are the consequences of not providing support, and those are the consequences bimble talks about when comparing it to the liberation of her ancestors in WWII.

Fwiw, I wouldn't send NATO troops in, and I don't think you'd find many people on here advocating for that, but the cost of not doing anything and waiting for ineffective sanctions to bite over months and years while the Ukrainian people suffer is high, and you need to own that if it is your position.

I really won't have this about WW2. There is separate thread debunking this on this forum.

You say you wouldn't support Nato troops in. So I'm guessing you don't support No Fly Zone.

So difference is between sending arms or not.

Sending arms and providing "support". If the present Ukraine government doesn't reckon that is enough what then?

Is not supporting a No Fly Zone tantamount to being compared with being an "appeaser"? That after all is request from the Ukrainian government.

 

[Cid]

Which is consistent with what Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) said about Putins initial plan anticipating it taking two weeks, which I mentioned much earlier in this thread and have repeatedly brought up since. If that timescale is exceeded then I'll be able to say something different instead of just repeating myself too much. ( Ukraine and the Russian invasion, Feb 2022 )

I am also wondering if the repeated focus on the convoy north of Kyiv is distracting from the Russian forces that are heading in the Kyiv direction from the east. Is anybody focussing on that side of things? I havent been spending much time trying to findl detail of that force and its progress, but it does rather leap out at me whenever I see maps like this one and the BBC equivalent:

Just isn't that much info. But there have been protests in most of the 'occupied' cities in the SE today, and control isn't guaranteed by any means. Bearing in mind that north of Kyiv has a direct connection to the border, and even then the logistics seem to have a lot of problems. Forces in the east have yet to get past key cities and even with them fully in control would need to cross the Dnieper and establish supply lines to the border/maybe the sea.

e2a: stress this is a late on Saturday very brief sum, but there it is.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What what things what?

Edit error. What they post. But tbh that was a shit thing to post even if they hadn't been nazis.

 

[Cid]

Edit error. What they post. But tbh that was a shit thing to post even if they hadn't been nazis.

Sure, but it was posted by diamond who... er. yeah. Nothing to do with kaka tim, who disco was using that against.

 

[contadino]

Russia must have known they were in trouble when Trump called Putin a genius

Tail wagging the dog.

 

[bluescreen]

I am going to nick 'Don't be like Satan' and use it whenever anyone annoys me.

Trouble is, he probably really does believe in Satan.

Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

"Ukraine is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space” Putin said. That’s what this is all about, “spiritual space” — a terrifying phrase steeped in over a thousand years of Russian religious history. Rev Giles Fraser argues that Putin is driven by a particular...

www.urban75.net

 

[dilute micro]

Heard about those 2 week documents but hadn’t really understood what they were.
This explains:

Alleged Captured Documents Imply Ukraine Invasion Planned In January

The purported Russian documents, stamped January 18, 2022, establish call signs and radio frequencies for operations for 15 days between Feb. 20 and March 6, and include maps detailing plans to seize the city of Melitopol. Throughout January, Putin insisted he had no plans to invade Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

So if genuine the 15 days thing was just that those plans included that many days of planned radio frequencies ending tomorrow, on 6th march.
But that doesn’t apparently tell us anything useful about how long they expected to be fighting for . Absolutely everything else points to them having expected this to be over by now.

True, and it says nothing about a multi staged attack. The north could have been thought to be easily overtaken with the big cities close to the Russian border. They might have seen clearing a land bridge from Donbass to Crimea to take longer or a sweep into the interior.

 

[rekil]

Hmmm. You may dislike how he said it, but that post wasn't entirely inaccurate.

You sure you should be policing that?

People need to be careful about what those things.

As zahir pointed out here, he'd previously posted a link to some rubbish by a scumfront shithead called Paul Antonopoulous, so maybe he needs to have a chat with himself before carrying on with his nazisthisnazisthat nonsense.

Spoiler: antonopoulos

 

[rekil]

This is going to seriously fuck with Edwin Starr's well-honed performances

"Hello Irkutsk! We are uhm Special Military Operation! And this next one is called erm Special Military Operation Is Coming!"

Spoiler

 

[Dogsauce]

Russian presidential aircraft is flying to Washington....

Boringly, it’s just picking up Russian diplomats from Dulles Airport.

(before they turn the US into a smoking crater obvs.)

 

[DaveCinzano]

"Hello Irkutsk! We are uhm Special Military Operation! And this next one is called erm Special Military Operation Is Coming!"

Spoiler

This is what happens when you tell your advance elements to syncopate their watches