Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[LDC]

I don't think filming POWs is a war crime or against the Geneva Convention whoever was going on about that, especially if done by some random on Twitter.

 

[ska invita]

Even if Russia takes over the weapons will continue to be smuggled into Ukraine to support an insurgent war. This can be won in the second phase. As an occupier you can't afford to lose hardware continuously. And Putin probably can't afford the amount of military it's going to take to stay there.

Second phase is something else though, and I agree that the bravery of unarmed civilians never mind the armed ones makes it hard to imagine how Russia can come to control the country. Is why I find it easier to imagine a partition in which Russia claims the east and south. But we are a getting way ahead of ourselves with that kind of speculation.

 

[Kaka Tim]

cant find the link now but guardian was reporting the Ukranian forces launched an attack on Kharkiv - the fact that their army is not only still in the field but also in a position to launch an assault 11 days in is pretty astonishing. Russia failing militarily is definitely a growing possibility IMHO - they are still miles from encircling Kiev - and seem to have made zero progress in a week.
In a rational world the sensible thing to do would be for the russians to stop digging - depressingly, all the evidence suggests we dont live in that world

 

[existentialist]

cant find the link now but guardian was reporting the Ukranian forces launched an attack on Kharkiv - the fact that their army is not only still in the field but also in a position to launch an assault 11 days in is pretty astonishing. Russia failing militarily is definitely a growing possibility IMHO - they are still miles from encircling Kiev - and seem to have made zero progress in a week.
In a rational world the sensible thing to do would be for the russians to stop digging - depressingly, all the evidence suggests we dont live in that world

Putin's problem is going to be that, as bad as this is now, withdrawing would be such a massive loss of face, both personally, and for the reputation of the Russian military, that it's going to be - even rationally - an inconceivable option.

 

[spitfire]

I don't think filming POWs is a war crime or against the Geneva Convention whoever was going on about that, especially if done by some random on Twitter.

 

[spitfire]

Couldn’t add text. Weird.

No probably not LDC, but it’s definitely not encouraged!

 

[dilute micro]

Morale cannot be good in the Russian ranks. They hear of pilots being knocked out, columns destroyed, top general killed, Chechen general killed, Chechens eliminated, low ammo, low food, their allies refusing to fight.... I'd bet the leaders are trying to keep such info from the troops but yeah right.

 

[Pickman's model]

You say 'another whack in the mouth' but doesn't that presuppose that someone whacked him in the mouth in the first place?

But he's apparently just survived a plane crash, either crash landing or ejecting, and wouldn't it be probable that he'd sustained injuries in that incident?

For my money he's has a punch in the mush. And maybe elsewhere for all that claret on his top.

 

[Cid]

cant find the link now but guardian was reporting the Ukranian forces launched an attack on Kharkiv - the fact that their army is not only still in the field but also in a position to launch an assault 11 days in is pretty astonishing. Russia failing militarily is definitely a growing possibility IMHO - they are still miles from encircling Kiev - and seem to have made zero progress in a week.
In a rational world the sensible thing to do would be for the russians to stop digging - depressingly, all the evidence suggests we dont live in that world

Do you mean Kherson? There's not much info, but it seems still contested... Big protests earlier, and more vehicle theft.



e2a: actually also seeing some stuff around Kharkiv, so my be that.

Ukraine's army launched a counteroffensive near Kharkiv now Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Ukraine's army launched a counteroffensive near Kharkiv now. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons...

liveuamap.com

 

[agricola]

Putin's problem is going to be that, as bad as this is now, withdrawing would be such a massive loss of face, both personally, and for the reputation of the Russian military, that it's going to be - even rationally - an inconceivable option.

I’d much rather the West tried to find him such a way out rather than uttering so much nonsense chat about regime change and people going to The Hague.

If Bennett (and that strange flight to DC today) are a part of that, trying to end this madness, then I think that’s welcome.

 

[Pickman's model]

I’m no expert but I think the Ukrainians will win. Not in this initial phase but in the insurgency that comes afterwards. And a lot of these weapons will be key to that.

Yeh. But as you see in a lot of insurgencies, Malaya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc,.a fuckton of civilians get killed, rather more than the number of dead occupiers, and since the Russian leadership doesn't seem greatly concerned by the number of Ukrainian dead...

 

[existentialist]

I’d much rather the West tried to find him such a way out rather than uttering so much nonsense chat about regime change and people going to The Hague.

If Bennett (and that strange flight to DC today) are a part of that, trying to end this madness, then I think that’s welcome.

Oh, I absolutely agree that, in the long run, finding him a face-saving way out would be an ideal option. TBH, though, I can't really see what that might look like right now.

 

[Cid]

Oh, I absolutely agree that, in the long run, finding him a face-saving way out would be an ideal option. TBH, though, I can't really see what that might look like right now.

Nice dacha in Crimea.

 

[two sheds]

We could offer him Trump.

 

[zahir]

i would have thought their supply of water would have been more valuable? being in a siege and all.

It sounds like it isn't actually water from the reservoir.

 

[friedaweed]

There's an underground tunnel network in Manchester, not in use of course.

Underground Manchester: Tunnels, a tube station and hidden shops

Take a look at some of the hidden tunnels and spaces including the remnants of a tube station that never was, a communications bunker, air raid shelters, canals and even shops

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

And Liverpool

Lost network of secret tunnels running right beneath your feet

It's a hidden world underneath our streets that most people will never see

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

There’s a worrying amount of knowledge on such matters. This comes up on mass shootings threads too.

Why is it worrying? There are urbanites who are ex-forces, some who've seen action, and so of course they have knowledge about weaponry, vehicles, aircraft, their uses and capabilities, plus knowledge about military strategy, different units, what they do and when, and things like logistics and supply lines, which have been key to understanding what's happening and what's going wrong from the Russian perspective, why it hasn't been the walkover they apparently anticipated.

I'd rather they shared their real life knowledge, expertise and experiences, instead of just reading contributions from folks who's main experience of battle is playing Call of Duty or Fortnite in their bedroom.

And I don't think the people who've been talking about volunteering in the sense of 'I'd volunteer myself, except xyz (dodgy eyesight/foot, etc)' have been really gung-ho. I haven't taken any of those comments seriously, thought they were tongue in cheek, tbh.

 

[Cid]

Yeh. But as you see in a lot of insurgencies, Malaya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc,.a fuckton of civilians get killed, rather more than the number of dead occupiers, and since the Russian leadership doesn't seem greatly concerned by the number of Ukrainian dead...

Yeah I cannot see any good from a drawn out occupation/insurgency situation. Think the Ukranians seem keen to avoid this too.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Yeh. But as you see in a lot of insurgencies, Malaya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc,.a fuckton of civilians get killed, rather more than the number of dead occupiers, and since the Russian leadership doesn't seem greatly concerned by the number of Ukrainian dead...

Doesn't seem like Russia has the resources or capability to maintain a long occupation, particularly of a vast country like Ukraine. They're not even really bothering to occupy the bits they've already captured.

 

[A380]

Yeh. But as you see in a lot of insurgencies, Malaya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc,.a fuckton of civilians get killed, rather more than the number of dead occupiers, and since the Russian leadership doesn't seem greatly concerned by the number of Ukrainian dead...

Don't get me wrong. I don't think think its a thing to be looked forward to.

 

[JimW]

If these assassination attempt stories are true then seems toppling present government was definitely a goal and if that doesn't happen either it will be harder to sell it as any sort of mission accomplished; would think (and hope) that best thing soon would be looking for the best face-saving way out for Putin.

 

[Dogsauce]

You say 'another whack in the mouth' but doesn't that presuppose that someone whacked him in the mouth in the first place?

But he's apparently just survived a plane crash, either crash landing or ejecting, and wouldn't it be probable that he'd sustained injuries in that incident?

’We’ got pissy when Saddam started parading bedraggled captured pilots on TV. It’s not OK, even in the current circumstances.

 

[nogojones]

you need to go beyond your childhood levels of pilfering to get to nog's heights

and it turned out we were rank amatures compared to the board who made off with our pension fund

 

[Cid]

I worry that, if Putin does come to the table, he'll do so with excessive demands for territory in the east. a) I'm not sure whether Zelensky would be willing to abandon those areas (or more importantly, the people in them), and b) if he did, it would be a grim occupation. Thinking places like Melitopol.

 

[friedaweed]

Why is it worrying? There are urbanites who are ex-forces, some who've seen action, and so of course they have knowledge about weaponry, vehicles, aircraft, their uses and capabilities, plus knowledge about military strategy, different units, what they do and when, and things like logistics and supply lines, which have been key to understanding what's happening and what's going wrong from the Russian perspective, why it hasn't been the walkover they apparently anticipated.

I'd rather they shared their real life knowledge, expertise and experiences, instead of just reading contributions from folks who's main experience of battle is playing Call of Duty or Fortnite in their bedroom.

And I don't think the people who've been talking about volunteering in the sense of 'I'd volunteer myself, except xyz (dodgy eyesight/foot, etc)' have been really gung-ho. I haven't taken any of those comments seriously, thought they were tongue in cheek, tbh.

I think OU, like a lot of folk, is just fucked off with the situ. He's asked to not be quoted now so he can ignore the thread so it's probably best left alone

 

[existentialist]

I worry that, if Putin does come to the table, he'll do so with excessive demands for territory in the east. a) I'm not sure whether Zelensky would be willing to abandon those areas (or more importantly, the people in them), and b) if he did, it would be a grim occupation. Thinking places like Melitopol.

And I think it would be exactly that - an occupation. I can't see the pro-Ukrainians in those areas settling for Russian domination.

No, I think Putin has made this into an all-or-nothing proposition, and I wouldn't be massively surprised if he ended up losing the Crimea, too.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

WTF is the isreali president doing in Russia ffs

Hopefully trying to make Putin see sense?

An Israeli citizen was killed in Ukraine, which can't have gone down well.

Israeli man killed in Ukraine, Israel's foreign ministry says

An Israeli man was killed in Ukraine on Monday as he was driving in a convoy heading toward the border with Moldova, Israel's foreign ministry said, without identifying who shot the man.

www.reuters.com

 

[friedaweed]

I worry that, if Putin does come to the table, he'll do so with excessive demands for territory in the east. a) I'm not sure whether Zelensky would be willing to abandon those areas (or more importantly, the people in them), and b) if he did, it would be a grim occupation. Thinking places like Melitopol.

I think Zelensky and the Ukrainian people's position of "Fuck him and the hose he rode in on" has gained so much resolve now as a result of Putin's actions that you'd have more chance of Cairo freezing over before they'd agree to giving any quarter to Roidface.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I think OU, like a lot of folk, is just fucked off with the situ. He's asked to not be quoted now so he can ignore the thread so it's probably best left alone

Yes, I'm replying/commenting as I'm working my way through thread updates, so at the time I replied I hadn't seen his comments about wanting to be banned from the thread.

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

I think Zelensky and the Ukrainian people's position of "Fuck him and the hose he rode in on" has gained so much resolve now as a result of Putin's actions that you'd have more chance of Cairo freezing over before they'd agree to giving any quarter to Roidface.

I think Snake Island dude set the fuck you tone.