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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

strung out said:
Fwiw, I wouldn't send NATO troops in, and I don't think you'd find many people on here advocating for that, but the cost of not doing anything and waiting for ineffective sanctions to bite over months and years while the Ukrainian people suffer is high, and you need to own that if it is your position.
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That is fair enough but if an endless trickle of weapons for Ukraine flows in to a conflict that military experts say can't be won by Ukraine then you are dragging out an unwinnable conflict and increasing the death toll of Ukrainian innocents and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Russian conscripted soldiers, and all those deaths need "owning" too.

If there is a chance of a Ukrainian win, that changes this moral calculation. I've not read any expert saying that is possible, and I personally have only their word to go on.
 
ska invita said:
That is fair enough but if an endless trickle of weapons for Ukraine flows in to a conflict that military experts say can't be won by Ukraine then you are dragging out an unwinnable conflict and increasing the death toll of Ukrainian innocents and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Russian conscripted soldiers, and all those deaths need "owning" too.

If there is a chance of a Ukrainian win, that changes this moral calculation. I've not read any expert saying that is possible, and I personally have only there word to go on.
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It's not just about win/lose, though. If Ukraine had just folded, as Russia clearly expected them to, the resulting state/status of the country would be very different from that where a war was fought and a more...equivocal outcome was achieved. Not to mention the effect on public opinion in the rest of the world.
 
scalyboy said:
They are well prepared then. I guess that’s what happens when you’ve lived through 45 years of Cold War with a bloody great bear next to you 😧 And more recently with Putin’s ‘greater Russia’ rhetoric.

I think I went into a section of this bunker system last year - a below street level shopping mall in Helsinki.
Imagine if Shopping City in Wood Green, the Kings Mall in Hammersmith, or Westfield (Shepherds Bush or Stratford) doubled up as bomb shelters 😱

As a citizen of the UK I feel so very fortunate not to be living in a country that’s under threat like Finland, the Baltics, Ukraine obvs - or like many of the world’s people in other countries who are similarly under threat…

Not forgetting the privileges of plentiful food, a home, a welfare state & NHS (though admittedly both are rapidly being dismantled), democracy (again, of sorts - democracy in the UK is many respects in name only)

[edit: added last two paragraphs - off my nut on espresso and war fear this morning]
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There's an underground tunnel network in Manchester, not in use of course.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

Underground Manchester: Tunnels, a tube station and hidden shops

Take a look at some of the hidden tunnels and spaces including the remnants of a tube station that never was, a communications bunker, air raid shelters, canals and even shops
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk
 
ska invita said:
That is fair enough but if an endless trickle of weapons for Ukraine flows in to a conflict that military experts say can't be won by Ukraine then you are dragging out an unwinnable conflict and increasing the death toll of Ukrainian innocents and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Russian conscripted soldiers, and all those deaths need "owning" too.

If there is a chance of a Ukrainian win, that changes this moral calculation. I've not read any expert saying that is possible, and I personally have only their word to go on.
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It seems like some experts are starting to make noises about Ukraine possibly being able to win, and it seems pretty clear that the Ukrainian people themselves want to fight rather than surrender.

It would be pretty patronising and potentially disastrous if NATO and the EU said tough shit, and watched on as the country fought on and got annihilated, then subjugated.
 
ska invita said:
That is fair enough but if an endless trickle of weapons for Ukraine flows in to a conflict that military experts say can't be won by Ukraine then you are dragging out an unwinnable conflict and increasing the death toll of Ukrainian innocents and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Russian conscripted soldiers, and all those deaths need "owning" too.

If there is a chance of a Ukrainian win, that changes this moral calculation. I've not read any expert saying that is possible, and I personally have only their word to go on.
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i think a ukrainian 'win' is likely a long way off and the way between here and there paved in the bones of the dead. from my pov it'll likely be won the same way afghanistan and iraq and algeria and vietnam were won, over a very long and murderous war
 
strung out said:
It seems like some experts are starting to make noises about Ukraine possibly being able to win, and it seems pretty clear that the Ukrainian people themselves want to fight rather than surrender.

It would be pretty patronising and potentially disastrous if NATO and the EU said tough shit, and watched on as the country fought on and got annihilated, then subjugated.
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In the scenario where Ukraine just folded, Greater Russia (if something like that was the plan) would find itself directly bordering a bunch more nato countries than it does now, too. Which would be fine. :hmm:
 
scalyboy said:
Yes, and having to comply with ‘Finlandisation’ during the Cold War, whereby (among other things) the Kremlin had some influence over Finnish politics. Don’t know if this is still the case though
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As oppose to the huge interference by the USA in the politics of other European states during the same period.
 
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ska invita said:
That is fair enough but if an endless trickle of weapons for Ukraine flows in to a conflict that military experts say can't be won by Ukraine then you are dragging out an unwinnable conflict and increasing the death toll of Ukrainian innocents and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Russian conscripted soldiers, and all those deaths need "owning" too.

If there is a chance of a Ukrainian win, that changes this moral calculation. I've not read any expert saying that is possible, and I personally have only there word to go on.
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Even if Russia takes over the weapons will continue to be smuggled into Ukraine to support an insurgent war. This can be won in the second phase. As an occupier you can't afford to lose hardware continuously. And Putin probably can't afford the amount of military it's going to take to stay there.
 
Pickman's model said:
i think in his shoes i'd say anything that might prevent me getting another whack in the mouth. or at least delay it.
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You say 'another whack in the mouth' but doesn't that presuppose that someone whacked him in the mouth in the first place?

But he's apparently just survived a plane crash, either crash landing or ejecting, and wouldn't it be probable that he'd sustained injuries in that incident?
 
ska invita said:
That is fair enough but if an endless trickle of weapons for Ukraine flows in to a conflict that military experts say can't be won by Ukraine then you are dragging out an unwinnable conflict and increasing the death toll of Ukrainian innocents and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as Russian conscripted soldiers, and all those deaths need "owning" too.

If there is a chance of a Ukrainian win, that changes this moral calculation. I've not read any expert saying that is possible, and I personally have only their word to go on.
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I’m no expert but I think the Ukrainians will win. Not in this initial phase but in the insurgency that comes afterwards. And a lot of these weapons will be key to that.
 
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AnnO'Neemus said:
You say 'another whack in the mouth' but doesn't that presuppose that someone whacked him in the mouth in the first place?

But he's apparently just survived a plane crash, either crash landing or ejecting, and wouldn't it be probable that he'd sustained injuries in that incident?
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I was wondering exactly this.

While I'm quite willing to accept that Ukrainians on the ground might be only too happy to administer a kicking to someone who, 10 minutes earlier was zooming around in the blue dropping high explosive on them, ejection from aircraft is not a zero-risk activity, and plenty of people who do, especially if the thing's just been hit with a missile, are likely to pick up a few dents and knocks on the way.

I don't like the videoing of prisoners, war crime or not, and I think it would be better that it didn't happen...but there is an information war going on, too, and I can fully understand the temptation to get them to express dismay/distress/confusion at what has happened to them.
 
existentialist said:
I was wondering exactly this.

While I'm quite willing to accept that Ukrainians on the ground might be only too happy to administer a kicking to someone who, 10 minutes earlier was zooming around in the blue dropping high explosive on them, ejection from aircraft is not a zero-risk activity, and plenty of people who do, especially if the thing's just been hit with a missile, are likely to pick up a few dents and knocks on the way.

I don't like the videoing of prisoners, war crime or not, and I think it would be better that it didn't happen...but there is an information war going on, too, and I can fully understand the temptation to get them to express dismay/distress/confusion at what has happened to them.
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FWIW the Ukrainian asking the orange jumpsuit pilot in a field today for his name, garrison etc was saying please and thank you.
 
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