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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

kebabking said:
If a poster on another thread talked about how public money shouldn't be spent on specialist sexual violence teams in the police and CPS, how rape victims were just slags who made it up, how men and boys shouldn't be taught about consent, about how women shouldn't be taught about safety or self defence, about how women who wore anything other than a bin liner were asking for it, and how rape should - in sentencing and criminal record terms - be treated like shoplifting, do you think you'd need them to explicitly say 'rape is great' in order to guage their views, or do you think you'd be able to figure it out all by your yourself?

TC has said, in Ukrainian terms, all of those things.

The middle bit might be messy, but in the end, it's binary: either you believe that Ukraine - or any other state - has the right to decide for itself how it chooses to organise itself, and who it's friends are, or you don't.

Which would be an interesting road to take for anyone who shouts 'Iraq'...
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This is deranged
 
sleaterkinney said:
Was he satisfied when he annexed Crimea or the Donbas?. Maybe he will go for the Baltic states next?.

Also, what would happen to the Ukrainians in the territories that have been given up?.

The alternative is supporting Ukraine properly, militarily and non-militarily. We are not doing anything near that.
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You are giving the Ukrainians the money saved from axing the universal winter fuel allowance
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I assume you're referring to the Winter War? There is a clue in its name as to one major way in which that differs from this situation.

But you and various other people seem to be listening to what Putin says and assuming that those are the only terms he would accept in a settlement. Surely he is setting out what he wants in order to claim an absolute victory. What a negotiation would represent is a way out of this war for Putin that is a considerable way short of absolute victory but gives him enough that he will accept it.

Does that mean rewarding aggression? Yeah. It does. But the disastrous course of this war will also be a cautionary tale for Putin. The idea that he'd fall back only to come again is a highly questionable assumption. This war has gone very badly for him. Why would he expect things to go so better for him next time?

It would be messy and no doubt unsatisfactory in many ways, but it would end the slaughter. What is the alternative? Three more years of slaughter? Six more years? What will be left to claim victory over by then? That's not a victory. That's everyone losing, which is what is happening right now.
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You are in charge of Ukraine.

How much of your country do you give to stop the immediate threat?

You suggest he would accept a settlement, utterly ignoring the entire history of his presidency.

So, how much do you give? Let us hear how your negotiation would pan out.
 
I mean ultimately why would Putin feel the need to find a way out as things stand? He clearly reckons he can keep grinding until a clearer victory can be claimed. As for whether he'd try any other wars after this one, not only does he have a history of doing so, he's also regeared the Russian economy around war production.
 
Rob Ray said:
I mean ultimately why would Putin feel the need to find a way out as things stand? He clearly reckons he can keep grinding until a clearer victory can be claimed. As for whether he'd try any other wars after this one, not only does he have a history of doing so, he's also regeared the Russian economy around war production.
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And so what?

Three more years of grinding the meat through the grinder? Then maybe three more years after that?

What do you say to the young men being conscripted and sent off to the front? Do you tell them victory is around the corner? Or maybe off you pop, there's grinding to be done and it's your turn to jump in.

I know what I would tell them, and what I would do for them if I were there. Help them get the fuck out of dodge.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
And so what?

Three more years of grinding the meat through the grinder? Then maybe three more years after that?

What do you say to the young men being conscripted and sent off to the front? Do you tell them victory is around the corner? Or maybe off you pop, there's grinding to be done and it's your turn to jump in.

I know what I would tell them, and what I would do for them if I were there. Help them get the fuck out of dodge.
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What a weird ask. I'm some guy 2,000 miles away talking about likely outcomes mostly to other English people, not a recruiting sergeant, I very much doubt I'd be telling them anything they don't already know.

What I'm not going to do is pretend an end to the war is possible right now without an internal revolt/line collapse on one side or the other. The former seems highly unlikely to me given the balance of events, while the latter seems more likely for Ukraine but my vantage point is basically useless so I'm not going to predict that either.

The only relatively sure thing is that Putin thinks he's winning and thus has little to gain from a negotiated settlement atm. Suggesting otherwise is, imv, wishful thinking at best.
 
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Ukraine has previously opted for a more engaging type of PR with those who have fled abroad based on a soft stick approach ie you can enrol on the app, then when called up come back , serve your time/do your duty and there will be no repercussions. This new approach suggested by the Polish government and supported by the new Foreign Minister for Ukraine Andriy Sybiga isn't going to cut the mustard. Many European States will not comply and in states that do Ukrainian exiles will simply go into the grey market or go to another state.

 
UnderOpenSky said:
Pretty sure you know better than anyone that's not how this works.
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It sort of is. Putin from the get go calculated the West wanted his cheap energy more than they would be prepared to take a stand against his invasion. He was wrong.

Personally think ending universal winter fuel payments is a mistake but don't feel the thinking behind it has anything to do with Ukraine.
 
gosub said:
It sort of is. Putin from the get go calculated the West wanted his cheap energy more than they would be prepared to take a stand against his invasion. He was wrong.

Personally think ending universal winter fuel payments is a mistake but don't feel the thinking behind it has anything to do with Ukraine.
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Linking the end of universal winter fuel payments to aid to Ukraine kind of echoes arguments in the US, where the Let's Cut Taxes for Rich People and Stop Funding Social Welfare Programs Party blames the lack of funding for social welfare programs on aid to Ukraine
 
Clock is ticking for Zelenskyy - Trump win obviously means its all over very fast, but even Kamala isnt an open ended cheque. Ive seen it reported that money from Germany (the second biggest donor after the US) is drying up - halving in the next budget IIRC - and the more European support dries up the more likely the US will do so too. Head of US army has been proven right when he said two years ago this was as good as it was going to get for Ukraine.

two sheds said:
I do wonder about that though, it's the argument almost universally used by headbangers on NextDoor for expelling refugees. I do suspect there'd be plenty of money for all if the rich were properly taxed.
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that would mean no phil collins though :(
 
ska invita said:
THe point is a reminder what a Trump win will mean for the war and why someone has tried to change that outcome
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It's a reminder that here are lots of angry nuts with access to guns and ammunition in the USA.

The Ukrainian state is rather more professional when they murder folk they dislike as was seen with Dugana or the chap with the exploding award. I'm sure they could kill Trump if they wanted to given how lax his security seems to be.
 
tim said:
It's a reminder that here are lots of angry nuts with access to guns and ammunition in the USA.

The Ukrainian state is rather more professional when they murder folk they dislike as was seen with Dugana or the chap with the exploding award. I'm sure they could kill Trump if they wanted to given how lax his security seems to be.
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draw whatever conclusion you want
ukraine ordering a hit would a massive own goal as of course the truth will out as to what happened <stupid idea to even imagine
 
tim said:
It's a reminder that here are lots of angry nuts with access to guns and ammunition in the USA.

The Ukrainian state is rather more professional when they murder folk they dislike as was seen with Dugana or the chap with the exploding award. I'm sure they could kill Trump if they wanted to given how lax his security seems to be.
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Yup, as Budanov once said Ukraine doesn't need to create its own Mossad as it already exists .
 
Smangus said:
All I see is a poster who wants to challenge the primary and widely accepted (without question, generally) Western narrative of the war as a counterpoint. Never seen any pro Putin stuff that I recall, I don't agree with a lot of it but it's useful for thinking to be challenged.
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Theres a simple plain fact about this war, Putin is leading a war of aggression on a state he has repeatedly said should no longer exist. His forces have committed multiple war crimes from downing a passenger jet and rewarding the people who did it to constantly targeting every civilian target it can reach including energy facilities in the dead of winter.

You can hide behind Nato and neoliberalism arguments as much as you like but putting the onus on Ukraine to end the war and challenging the narrative of western imperialism involves a fundamental rewriting of reality by pretending Ukraine has a choice in the matter beyond defending itself until Putin gives up or surrendering and letting Putin do whatever he wants
 
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A curious article in the WSJ where on the basis of a poll, that says 15% of veterans and serving soldiers would join an armed protest if Kyiv signed a peace treaty that they didn’t agree with, they randomly interview Andriy Biletskiy. Biletskiy. just happens to be the Commander of the Azov's 3rd Brigade , and former head of Azov's National Corps and the Azov Battalion.

 
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