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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

But PRC does relish the idea of anything that feeds positively into their claims over Taiwan. Russia invading and seizing Ukraine's territory as its own is kind of precedent setting insofar as China's claims over Taiwan go.

China can't lean on Russia to back the fuck off out of Ukraine without effectively undermining its own long-standing claims over Taiwan.
This is really not true at all, in fact even as they have given limited support to Russian claims, they have been at pains to stress the difference between this situation and Taiwan. The idea that regions universally recognized to be part of one country can suddenly be recognized as independent states is very much a precedence they do not want to set, and they certainly do not recognize Russian claims for the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk. The dilemma comes from the fact that Russia is increasingly an ally and their opposition to NATO, which is also why the media is focussed almost entirely on the NATO aspect.
 
Perhaps a bit of both? Not uncommon. He was nicely placed, after all, before Russia intervened. Proper riches beckoned.

We're not naive, are we?

They are doing the Lord's work. Not literally neccesserily but they need to commit/support. He mentions 'intelligence'. Full support imo, logistics, humanitarian, arms, expertise. It's a cry for help.
 
It's not a question of being naive. I don't know wrt Zelenskiy in terms of wider motivation generally, but right this second he has the benefit of my doubt. He could have left the country and didn't. That wasn't a calculation to do with his career or potential riches.
Future career paths for him:

1. The west European/US late-night talkshow: acclaim from an audience of typically gullible apoliticals.

2. The Lyubyanka for 'questioning' (or maybe not?)

3 'Glory'
 
Zelenski saying 'Europe/Nato needs to take a stand or Europe could fall and our blood on your hands'.

Within the last hour like, sorry I haven't followed the thread today but seems worth putting here. Paraphrasing:

Unfortunately his rhetoric was always going to get more desperate as the inevitable unfolded in terms of Ukraine not getting the no fly zone its been begging for.

I dont think anybody commented on his desperate rhetoric that I popped in to post about last night, the stuff he said that made dramatic use of the nuclear power station situation yesterday. That too was entirely understandable, desperate, and also contained some absolute bullshit claims that were made for reasons that were not subtle. Presumably he thinks there is a still a chance that if enough people in Europe believe the direct and immediate threat to them from this conflict is immense, more support for Ukraine may be offered. But I dont know how many people really believe that will happen, due to the usual horrible realities of nuclear powers and how high the stakes are on that front, and all the causes that we always expect will be sacrificed in the name of avoiding world war 3.

It is a very sad moment which is awkward for all involved. I feel I should quote his comments as reported by the BBC in full here. I suppose this is a moment that always seemed somehow inevitable despite the various lesser ways that support for Ukraine has been shown. The support that was actually on offer was never going to be enough, leading to a moment which could be used to make various claims, some of which are sadly not new to this conflict. For example the usual story of certain nations being strung along and led to believe that they could hope for more support from their 'new friends' than was ever likely to actually be forthcoming.

Reportedly speaking from his office in Kyiv, Zelensky condemned Nato leaders' refusal on Friday to establish a no-fly-zone over his country.

Zelensky said: "All the people who die, starting today, will also die because of you. Because of your weakness, because of your disconnection."

He continued: "The Nato summit took place today. A weak summit. A confused summit. A summit that shows that not everyone considers the fight for freedom for Europe the number one goal.

"All the intelligence agencies of the Nato countries are well aware of the enemy's plans. They confirmed that Russia wants to continue the offensive.

"Nato has deliberately decided not to close the skies over Ukraine. Nato countries created a narrative that closing the skies over Ukraine would provoke Russia's direct aggression against Nato.

“This is the self-hypnosis of those who are weak, insecure inside, despite the fact they possess weapons many times stronger than we have."

Zelensky later addressed large protests taking place across Europe, telling demonstrators: "If Ukraine does not survive, the whole of Europe will not survive.

"If Ukraine falls, the whole of Europe will fall."

I dont know as we really need to discuss which parts of that are obvious bollocks, and I dont really mean that as a criticism of him since its entirely understandable why they feel so let down. I suppose its not impossible that assuming things continue as expected, this sort of rhetoric could even end up being used as the basis of a new stance, one which the authorities in Ukraine could use as part of trying to find a solution with Russia. But it would really be premature bollocks for me to suggest thats whats actually happening or what motivates him to come out with this rhetoric at this moment. I'm getting ahead of myself by even mentioning some of the ways that could morph in future, if he survives long enough and Russia decided to leave some people from the current government in place. And its hard to know how much genuine belief ever they had that they might really get more direct military support, or when exactly all hope on that front will genuinely be exhausted in their minds. Even if they know there is no prospect of that, I suppose they are still going to keep asking for it, trying to shame countries into offering more meaningful support even when its a lost cause.
 
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Unfortunately his rhetoric was always going to get more desperate as the inevitable unfolded in terms of Ukraine not getting the no fly zone its been begging for.

I dont think anybody commented on his desperate rhetoric that I popped in to post about last night, the stuff he said that made dramatic use of the nuclear power station situation yesterday. That too was entirely understandable, desperate, and also contained some absolute bullshit claims that were made for reasons that were not subtle. Presumably he thinks there is a still a chance that if enough people in Europe believe the direct and immediate threat to them from this conflict is immense, more support for Ukraine may be offered. But I dont know how many people really believe that will happen, due to the usual horrible realities of nuclear powers and how high the stakes are on that front, and all the causes that we always expect will be sacrificed in the name of avoiding world war 3.

It is a very sad moment which is awkward for all involved. I feel I should quote his comments as reported by the BBC in full here. I suppose this is a moment that always seemed somehow inevitable despite the various lesser ways that support for Ukraine has been shown. The support that was actually on offer was never going to be enough, leading to a moment which could be used to make various claims, some of which are sadly not new to this conflict. For example the usual story of certain nations being strung along and led to believe that they could hope for more support from their 'new friends' than was ever likely to actually be forthcoming.







I dont know as we really need to discuss which parts of that are obvious bollocks, and I dont really mean that as a criticism of him since its entirely understandable why they feel so let down. I suppose its not impossible that assuming things continue as expected, this sort of rhetoric could even end up being used as the basis of a new stance, one which the authorities in Ukraine could use as part of trying to find a solution with Russia. But it would really be premature bollocks for me to suggest thats whats actually happening or what motivates him to come out with that at this moment. I'm getting ahead of myself by even mentioning some of the ways that could morph in future, if he survives long enough and Russia decided to leave some people from the current government in place. And its hard to know how much genuine belief ever they had that they might really get more direct military support, or when exactly all hope on that front will genuinely be exhausted in their minds. Even if they know there is no prospect of that, I suppose they are still going to keep asking for it, trying to shame countries into offering more meaningful support even when its a lost cause.

The defense and likely drawn out insurgency is not a lost cause.
 
None of this feeds positively into their claims over Taiwan. However this ends, it's not with Putin as a role model for all humanity.
Yeah that's my reading of it too. Would China be prepared to give up basically their entire plan for expansion around the world in order to invade Taiwan? Can't see it.

Seems to me that one of Putin's miscalculations here is that he thought Europe would be much more reluctant to jeopardise Russian supplies of gas, etc, than it is proving to be so far. That's the lesson for China, I would have thought. Maybe the world will care if they invade Taiwan.
 
The defense and likely drawn out insurgency is not a lost cause.

I doubt that a much longer, drawn out later phase of conflict is what is on his mind when he comes out with that rhetoric though. I dont think he would say the things he is saying now unless they have calculated that this crucial phase of the conflict is a lost cause without a no fly zone. I'm just acknowledging the level of desperation that seeps through almost every sentence he is coming out with at the moment.

But yes its true that I should not make assumptions about other phases in a longer conflict. But a longer conflict is only one scenario, its not inevitable, and in the meantime a point could be reached where Zelensky and his government decide to try to bring things to a conclusion of a different sort. Or at least dont see themselves as likely to be around to direct later phases if things were to go in the insurgency direction. Plus Russia may calculate that a new puppet regime will be a nightmare for them to uphold, and might instead consider retaining chunks of the current regime if it reorients itself.
 
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Cool. They've just stood up to Russia. My reckon is Ukraine will win and Russians will turn on eachother:

Morale is laughable.
The state is bare-arsed but for the benefit of a few.
 
I do find the internal situation in Russia rather hard to get a grip on, I probably make more assumptions about the war in Ukraine and what is most likely to happen on the battlefield and to Kyiv than I do about the future of Russian politics and Putin. It could go wrong for Putin in a big way, I can hope for that, but I cannot assume it likely.
 
An odd thing: the masturbation on here over the Ukrainian president, who represents everything so many posting regulars purport to hate. Even anarchists and revolutionary socialists seem to be rushing to embrace him. These are some curious times.

Still, I suppose it might have been like this in WW2. Tories loving Stalin etc. Except we are not in a war, even if some people are acting like we are.
 
An odd thing: the masturbation on here over the Ukrainian president, who represents everything so many posting regulars purport to hate. Even anarchists and revolutionary socialists seem to be rushing to embrace him. These are some curious times.

Still, I suppose it might have been like this in WW2. Tories loving Stalin etc. Except we are not in a war, even if some people are acting like we are.

What not being ruled by a reactionary, totalitarian dictator?
 
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