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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Why the Russian Air Force hasn't done a lot:

www.rusi.org

Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?

More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.
www.rusi.org www.rusi.org
 
Cid said:
Interfax reporting ceasefire and humanitarian corridors for Mariupol and Volnovakha.
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BBC website also reporting this

6:44 Russia announces humanitarian corridors for two Ukrainian cities

Russia's defence ministry says humanitarian corridors will open at 10:00 Moscow time (07:00GMT) on Saturday from the cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha.

A "regime of quietness" will be implemented for the civilian population to leave the cities and has been agreed with the Ukrainian authorities, the defence ministry said according to Russian media.

However, we haven't seen any confirmation from the Ukrainian side as yet.
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Yossarian said:
Yeah, while it's good to hear optimistic opinions and he seems quite well-informed, predicting that the entire Russian state is a few days away from collapse.
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The bit about independence movements seems wildly off. Komi republic for example has a majority Russian population, is pretty central in European Russia, and has no history of even grumbling about independence as far as I'm aware.
 
bimble said:
I don’t know, looks convincing to me.
View attachment 312887
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Having just read the thread, it is quite convincing (but is that because I so desperately want to believe it?), but does seem to rely on a LOT of favourable assumptions.

The reality is...we just don't know. I am sure, when this is over, and the history is written, we will realise just how little of what was going on we are seeing now. And if that's the case, then assumptions are being made on the basis of very little data.

And then there's the nuclear threat - I would be unsurprised if, should the Russian army become as devastated as that thread suggests, Putin starts using chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. I suspect he'll start with tactical nukes if he does cross that line, and will dare NATO not to respond. Which, TBF, it probably won't - there will be prevarication and dithering, which Putin will take as a green light to escalate the war in Ukraine, if not elsewhere. I fear that there will be an element of "If I can't have it, nobody else can, either" in his thinking.
 
keybored said:
Any more news on this, or did it simply become the World's Longest Military Vehicle Museum?
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This twitter-guy says (in between silly gifs) that because they planned a 3-day operation which is now in its 9th day, they are out of fuel and out of food and the batteries are dead. He thinks they will have to abandon the vehicles and start wandering about in search of food.
 
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existentialist said:
And then there's the nuclear threat - I would be unsurprised if, should the Russian army become as devastated as that thread suggests, Putin starts using chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. I suspect he'll start with tactical nukes if he does cross that line, and will dare NATO not to respond. Which, TBF, it probably won't - there will be prevarication and dithering, which Putin will take as a green light to escalate the war in Ukraine, if not elsewhere. I fear that there will be an element of "If I can't have it, nobody else can, either" in his thinking.
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Sadly, I think you could be right, I hope we are not, but it is very worrying that Putin will just not give up and keep pushing past what normal limits would be, one step at a time, and still NATO wouldn't get involved for fear of all out nuclear war, scary times. :(

The only hope being that at least some around him will decide at some point that enough is enough and bring it all to an end.
 
SpookyFrank said:
Azov batallion. Nazis. The photo is from 2020 apparently. This is in the twitter thread linked above.
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I know. I was just trying to gently suggest to Diamond to do a little digging before posting up the images with an accompanying 'fantastic'. Perhaps I should have been rather more obvious; in my defence I would say that I was a little distracted waiting in a hospital bed for an examination of my lower bowel...happy days!

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
 
I saw a young woman in one of the southern cities mention that a friend of hers had been raped by a Russian soldier (I'm afraid I can't recall which particular video this was). I realise that this kind of allegation is easy to make, and hard to evidence, but I've wondered since the start of this war whether we were going to see that kind of atrocity...and, as the other kinds of atrocity have ramped up, it's seemed more and more likely. Even if that report isn't true, we all know that rape is a weapon of war, and I cannot imagine what it must be like for women in Ukrainian cities about to be occupied by Russia, knowing the possibility that it could happen to them. :(
 
bimble said:
This twitter-guy says (in between silly gifs) that because they planned a 3-day operation which is now in its 8th day, they are out of fuel and out of food and the batteries are dead. He thinks they will have to abandon the vehicles and start wandering about in search of food.
Click to expand...


I'm glad they didn't get bombed or droned or whatever and hope they make it back to the motherland alive. Maybe get given printed t-shirts "I went (almost) to Kyev and all I got was ignored".
 

D'wards said:
Old Pa D'wards was telling me how we have hundreds of Challenger 2 tanks mothballed, as its cheaper than maintaining them.
Why don't we ship them to Poland, swiftly train a load of Ukrainian soldiers in Poland, let them crack on.
The Challenger 2 is one of the best tanks in the world- only one has been destroyed and that was by accident by another Challenger 2 and the hatches were open at the time.
We have apaches so don't really rely on tanks now anyway.
They could tear through the Russian fleet
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This is just dangerous warmongering shite. Why don't you go and volunteer to drive a tank over there? Sub you your fare. End this tedious armchair murderous shite.
 
Louis MacNeice said:
I know. I was just trying to gently suggest to Diamond to do a little digging before posting up the images with an accompanying 'fantastic'. Perhaps I should have been rather more obvious; in my defence I would say that I was a little distracted waiting in a hospital bed for an examination of my lower bowel...happy days!

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
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Hope you are ok comrade. x
 
existentialist said:
I saw a young woman in one of the southern cities mention that a friend of hers had been raped by a Russian soldier (I'm afraid I can't recall which particular video this was). I realise that this kind of allegation is easy to make, and hard to evidence, but I've wondered since the start of this war whether we were going to see that kind of atrocity...and, as the other kinds of atrocity have ramped up, it's seemed more and more likely. Even if that report isn't true, we all know that rape is a weapon of war, and I cannot imagine what it must be like for women in Ukrainian cities about to be occupied by Russia, knowing the possibility that it could happen to them. :(
Click to expand...
Rape is part of warfare. Sadly I expect there will be many such cases.
 
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