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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

That would be great if he settles on this and withdraws.
I don't think there's much chance of Ukraine accepting that at this stage. But even they did, it would need a security council resolution to make it meaningful, which I don't think can happen.
 
I think the problem any peace deal is going to face is, who's is going to believe that Putin will be doing anything but rebuilding his force for the next attack?

The talk of compromise, of Putin gets this but doesn't get that, just ignores his behaviour towards Ukraine for the last 20 years - I think I count 4 separate treaties regarding Ukraine that Russia has broken - so why would anyone believe he'll stick to number 5?

The only reason you'd sign one would be breathing space...
 
Good question on BBC r4 any questions

If Putin used a battlefield nuke in Ukraine what would NATO's response be?

The panel didn't have great answers.
 
Watching BBC news and there's plenty of talk from commentators about the real possibility of Russia using a battlefield nuke.
the russian keeped up with this tech

low yeild tactical nukes


nato and europe did not so its kinda scary

how can you convice Russian that your icbs are low yield battlefield options

:hmm:
 
It tells a deeper story - that senior Russian Officers feel they have to be at the front...

There are good reasons for seniors to be at/near the front: seeing the reality of the situation rather than a filtered version, and providing leadership when your soldiers are going through difficult times.

But it can also be a sign that the communications are ratshit and you need to be telling CO/OC's to their faces what you want them to do, or worse, that without the senior standing over them and whipping them on, they'll find reasons not to do it...
Communications, perhaps, but this speaks to unit morale pretty strongly, in my view.

Long story short: behaviouralists like to do rats-in-mazes experiments, and although you can't apply this wholesale to people, there are definitely results that emerge which do translate across to human behaviour. One of those is that if you do your "operant conditioning" (training to do what you should do) on the basis of negative reinforcement, it works...but it doesn't "stick". You need to have the dude-in-charge cracking the whip on a regular basis to maintain motivation. If, OTOH, you do your conditioning on a positive reinforcement basis, ie. by all the stuff they now teach in officer school, where you're teaching firm, strong, direct, positive leadership and which the old hands do a kind of "harrumph, we didn't have this nonsense in my day" thing about, you find that you don't actually have to loom over them constantly, so long as they're motivated to do what they need to do, and there are regular bits of positive (and critical, where necessary) reinforcement going on in between times. And it's no surprise that, in commando or other special forces units, that's exactly what happens. You're not going to have some sergeant screaming at you that your stable belt isn't properly blancoed, because it is assumed that your self-motivation is good enough that you don't have to be yelled at about it. Etc.

It's reasonably obvious from the general narrative about how the Russian soldiers are operating, that there isn't any real sense of a positive desire to do what they're supposed to do, so much as a more slacking off culture where they're only running about and standing to attention when there's someone shouting at them.

Obviously, in those circumstances, some of those more prestige units realised that they were going to need their O/C on the ground doing the motivating, and...sniper.
 
Good question on BBC r4 any questions

If Putin used a battlefield nuke in Ukraine what would NATO's response be?

The panel didn't have great answers.

The situation would remain the same I think. There would be even more condemnation, but the fundamental stakes of the issue with wider engagement wouldn't change. And if anything it would show willingness to use other elements of his nuke arsenal.

But, to add the addendum that should be implied on all posts on this thread... who the fuck really knows?
 
Of course Putin has the option now of producing another Chernobyl whose effect would depend on which way the wind is blowing ..
 
I think the problem any peace deal is going to face is, who's is going to believe that Putin will be doing anything but rebuilding his force for the next attack?

The talk of compromise, of Putin gets this but doesn't get that, just ignores his behaviour towards Ukraine for the last 20 years - I think I count 4 separate treaties regarding Ukraine that Russia has broken - so why would anyone believe he'll stick to number 5?

The only reason you'd sign one would be breathing space...
That is why Ukraine will and should sign up to any reasonable peace deal. They need that space.

And while Putin will rearm so can Ukraine and if US and the rest Europe don't drop the ball (which is pretty likely) they can pump up Ukraine faster than Putin can Russia.
 
70,000 international students were in Ukraine before the invasion apparently. Mostly from developing countries, studying with cheaper fees. I wonder how many are stuck etc.. sounds really awful for the ones stuck on the Polish border. This isnt to detract from the shit Ukrainians are going through, but poor buggers, must be awful when you're only 18-21 and your country isnt going to do bugger all to help you.
 
Flipping crikey, some SKY journalists had a very, very close call here. Scary as fuck. I know journos get a hard time, sometimes justified, but some of them are really sticking their necks on the line to get information out.

CW: they were under accurate fire, no deaths/serious injuries.

 
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Well that's not going to impress your only ally:


Doesn't seem to be verified. Or er... various Chinese media is denying it. Which would not ordinarily mean a lot, but you would expect news like that to be picked up more widely if it were properly verified, and it doesn't seem to have been.
 
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