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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Kinda was wasn't I?

"
Most of this is too big for my tiny brain, but has there been any noise from countries outside the EU/Europe in terms of support or may?

I mean India, Africa, North and South Korea, Australia etc"
 
Maybe intended for Finnish and Swedish ears, as those countries seem to be heading towards NATO at present, which is the opposite of what Putin wants.

The Finnish President is in Washington today. He had a meeting this morning with the Director, CIA, and one this afternoon with President Biden.

I doubt he'll be going to Moscow anytime soon...
 
I was wrong about the initial invasion, hope I’m wrong about what I think comes next:

Kiev encircled in three days to a week and bombarded for a week after that. Ukrainian regular forces in and arround the city destroyed.

Puppet government installed by the end of March, Putin declares victory.

Continued asymmetrical warfare in eastern countryside, until the Ukrainian army gets degraded to the point they are an insurgency. Probably late April early may.

Massive, but violently repressed public protest in Russia.

Guerilla fighting / ‘terrorism’ for at least five years. With the West both assisting and continuing our economic attacks on Russia.

Attempts to depose Putin and his close circle made from this summer. But it’s mostly luck if they are successful or not.

Hope I’m wide of the mark.

I'd go with a lot of that but I'd be wary of timescales and especially attempts to depose Putin from his 'inner circle'. Not sure any of them have the balls and it would need more than one of them.
 
There's some slightly odd reports, almost as if half-suppressed, that an anonymous 3rd party country has transferred yet more Bayratkar drones to Ukraine.
 
If any of wereRussian or lived in the country and if you spread misinformation you could land up in Labour camp for 5 years under the new rules according Sky news?
Just wait for the outrage from all those alt-right freedom of speech fundamentalists about this.

(yeah, it might take a while…)
 
The Finnish President is in Washington today. He had a meeting this morning with the Director, CIA, and one this afternoon with President Biden.

I doubt he'll be going to Moscow anytime soon...

Been reports of Russia jets violating Swedish airspace as well last few days?
 
I was wrong about the initial invasion, hope I’m wrong about what I think comes next:

Kiev encircled in three days to a week and bombarded for a week after that. Ukrainian regular forces in and arround the city destroyed.

Puppet government installed by the end of March, Putin declares victory.

Continued asymmetrical warfare in eastern countryside, until the Ukrainian army gets degraded to the point they are an insurgency. Probably late April early may.

Massive, but violently repressed public protest in Russia.

Guerilla fighting / ‘terrorism’ for at least five years. With the West both assisting and continuing our economic attacks on Russia.

Attempts to depose Putin and his close circle made from this summer. But it’s mostly luck if they are successful or not.

Hope I’m wide of the mark.

Grimly plausible - but there is still a lot of Ukraine left after Kiev has been taken and, with a plentiful supply of weapons and equipment from the west - the Ukrainian military can stay in the game for a long time. Putin will have to take the whole country before he can declare "victory" .
 
It's not a complete list for obvious reasons, but they've put totals in red. Russia started with more I think, and their losses will also have been publicised more:

Russia - 614, of which: destroyed: 240, damaged: 8, abandoned: 138, captured: 227​


Ukraine - 193, of which: destroyed: 72, damaged: 4, abandoned: 44, captured: 73​

The Ukrainians have captured more stuff off the Russians than they have lost so they now have more vehicles than they started with and since it's basically the same as what they had before, they can chuck a quick coat of paint on and send it into battle.
Even without other evidence on those numbers alone they are clearly putting up one hell of a fight.
 
I'm disturbed by Iranian students I know posting in support of Russia. One woman lives in Russia now and appears to have completely swallowed state propoganda.
Weird because the Iranian leader condemned the invasion. Though that might be why they are taking the opposite view.
 
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