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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Kaka Tim said:
I think he gives all the appearance of being a authoritarian despot who is sliding into megalomania - not exactly a rare condition for people in his position. It might be some elaborate cunning mind game he's playing - but his actions and words all point to it being exactly what it looks like. And the biggest evidence of this is his decision to invade Ukraine in the first place - (and thinking it would be a cake walk).
right now I would say he is easily the worlds most dangerous person and getting him well away from the big red button should be the world number one priority. Seriously - Russia as a loose cannon rouge state is the situation we are in. Really, really not good
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I agree he is profoundly dangerous, but I think the big worry is precisely that Russia is not a loose cannon, rogue state despite doing this.

If the world had condemned it as one it would be one thing, but a lot of big countries are seemingly on board with this aggression; more could follow if food prices globally increase (including the UK).
 
emanymton said:
Putin is never a genius nor is he "mad" or losing it. He miscalculated. He did not expect the level of response internationally and having made the decision he has to commit to it.

Much of the world now waging full on "economic warfare" against Russia and I'm not sure anyone anticipated that.
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it's going to cause a ton of problems around eg climate science as western scientists end ties with russian academics / academics at russian universities. UK universities brace for impact of sanctions against Russia
 
RD2003 said:
I've never heard of him before. But the link detailed genuine warnings from a wide variety of people, about the implications of NATO expansion and the inevitability of the horror unfolding before our eyes. Whose website it appears on is irrelevant.
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Provenance not an issue for you at all then?

Bit dim.
 
agricola said:
I agree he is profoundly dangerous, but I think the big worry is precisely that Russia is not a loose cannon, rogue state despite doing this.

If the world had condemned it as one it would be one thing, but a lot of big countries are seemingly on board with this aggression; more could follow if food prices globally increase (including the UK).
Click to expand...
I know PRC are famously opaque in their diplomacy - but I imagine they aren't exactly relishing the thought of a belligerent, resentful, paranoid Russian regime sliding into totalitarianism with a very possibly unhinged leader with his finger on the button.
 
Doctor Carrot said:
I also got from that talk a big sense of 'we know best' from Mearsheimer when he said 'we should make Ukraine neutral' who's this we? Ukrainian people have agency, it's up to them what they decide for their country, not NATO and not Russia.
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That's misunderstanding the dynamic.
The matter is complex and if Country X says it wants X Weapons from NATO that doesnt mean NATO has to supply.
Ukraine has agency to ask, NATO has agency to refuse. All other states have agency to find other solutions.
There is a "we" involved, because "we" are being asked something of.

Saudi Arabia wants weapons from the UK, the UK has a choice whether to arm them. The UK government continues to chose to supply them, despite UK courts finding such sales unlawful.
Saudi Arabia has agency to ask, the UK has agency to agree or not. I'm not making an equivalence, just showing an example of the basic dynamic of states interacting and agency.
 
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RD2003 said:
I've never heard of him before. But the link detailed genuine warnings from a wide variety of people, about the implications of NATO expansion and the inevitability of the horror unfolding before our eyes. Whose website it appears on is irrelevant.
Click to expand...
it's very relevant. if it was on eg the bbc, that's one thing. if it's on eg rt that's quite another. even diamond gets this. why don't you?
 
emanymton said:
Putin is never a genius nor is he "mad" or losing it. He miscalculated. He did not expect the level of response internationally and having made the decision he has to commit to it.

Much of the world now waging full on "economic warfare" against Russia and I'm not sure anyone anticipated that.
Click to expand...

How can anyone say with any conviction that he is not dangerously estranged from reality? The shit he comes out with is obsessive, paranoid and delusional. The table. invading urkaine ffs. Could be he's playing 4d chess, could be he's miscalculated, could be he's gone proper bunker happy. The last option is definitely well within the bound of possibility and certainly cant be ruled out.
 
RD2003 said:
So those quoted never actually said those things?
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it's a general point, not specific to this episode. lots of things are on the internet. not all of them are on trustworthy sites. just because something's on the internet doesn't mean that it is true or accurate. it's a very simple general point.
 
Kaka Tim said:
I know PRC are famously opaque in their diplomacy - but I imagine they aren't exactly relishing the thought of a belligerent, resentful, paranoid Russian regime sliding into totalitarianism with a very possibly unhinged leader with his finger on the button.
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I disagree - I don't think there is any reason for them not to back this. If he is mad, the international condemnation weakens Russia to the point that they are more dependent on the PRC. If he isn't mad and is working to a plan that comes off, they stand to benefit from it too (in terms of weakening the Western countries, especially the US).

They've been talking about creating a multi-polar world for ages and this might be it; it might even be an attempt to remove the current superpower and replace it with another one (albeit this time a bloc rather than a single state).
 
Kaka Tim said:
How can anyone say with any conviction that he is not dangerously estranged from reality? The shit he comes out with is obsessive, paranoid and delusional. The table. invading urkaine ffs. Could be he's playing 4d chess, could be he's miscalculated, could be he's gone proper bunker happy. The last option is definitely well within the bound of possibility and certainly cant be ruled out.
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Oh he is clearly dangerous. As for the rest that is petty normal for many people I'm his position. But hey I'm probably wrong. I often am.
 
Pickman's model said:
it's a general point, not specific to this episode. lots of things are on the internet. not all of them are on trustworthy sites. just because something's on the internet doesn't mean that it is true or accurate. it's a very simple general point.
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Oh well, I suppose those prescient warnings are available elsewhere...
 
agricola said:
I disagree - I don't think there is any reason for them not to back this. If he is mad, the international condemnation weakens Russia to the point that they are more dependent on the PRC. If he isn't mad and is working to a plan that comes off, they stand to benefit from it too (in terms of weakening the Western countries, especially the US).

They've been talking about creating a multi-polar world for ages and this might be it; it might even be an attempt to remove the current superpower and replace it with another one (albeit this time a bloc rather than a single state).
Click to expand...
a multi polar world isnt much use to the PRC if it consists of radioactive rubble.
 
agricola said:
I disagree - I don't think there is any reason for them not to back this. If he is mad, the international condemnation weakens Russia to the point that they are more dependent on the PRC. If he isn't mad and is working to a plan that comes off, they stand to benefit from it too (in terms of weakening the Western countries, especially the US).

They've been talking about creating a multi-polar world for ages and this might be it; it might even be an attempt to remove the current superpower and replace it with another one (albeit this time a bloc rather than a single state).
Click to expand...
They do look to be each way winners on anything short of a nuclear exchange. A beholden Russia might not be top option but it'll do.
 
Kaka Tim said:
How can anyone say with any conviction that he is not dangerously estranged from reality? The shit he comes out with is obsessive, paranoid and delusional. The table. invading urkaine ffs. Could be he's playing 4d chess, could be he's miscalculated, could be he's gone proper bunker happy. The last option is definitely well within the bound of possibility and certainly cant be ruled out.
Click to expand...
Maybe he's slightly off of plumb and miscalculated?
 
ska invita said:
That's misunderstanding the dynamic.
The matter is complex and if Country X says it wants X Weapons from NATO that doesnt mean NATO has to supply.
Ukraine has agency to ask, NATO has agency to refuse. All other states have agency to find other solutions.
There is a "we" involved, because "we" are being asked something of.

Saudi Arabia wants weapons from the UK, the UK has a choice whether to arm them. The UK government continues to chose to supply them, despite UK courts finding such sales unlawful.
Saudi Arabia has agency to ask, the UK has agency to agree or not. I'm not making an equivalence, just showing an example of the basic dynamic of states interacting and agency.
Click to expand...
I'm aware of how state interaction works.
I feel the NATO aspect is just gonna go round in circles. Yes, NATO expansion is a factor but Ukraine joining NATO wasn't on the cards because of the war with the Donbass regions. I get why Putin invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea and even the Donbass because of NATO. Don't agree with it but I can see why.

This Ukraine full invasion though is just murderous, reckless and there's no justification for it. Even the people around him think it is, not that they would ever say so.
 
Worth having a listen to the most recent Grand Tamasha podcast on the Indian perspective... There are some standardly bad centrist bits on global security, but it's a fair rundown of where India stands, why and how conditional that stance is.

carnegieendowment.org

Grand Tamasha

Each week, Milan Vaishnav and his guests from around the world break down the latest developments in Indian politics, economics, foreign policy, society, and culture for a global audience.
carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org
 
Doctor Carrot said:
I'm aware of how state interaction works.
I feel the NATO aspect is just gonna go round in circles. Yes, NATO expansion is a factor but Ukraine joining NATO wasn't on the cards because of the war with the Donbass regions. I get why Putin invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea and even the Donbass because of NATO. Don't agree with it but I can see why.
This Ukraine full invasion though is just murderous, reckless and there's no justification for it. Even the people around him think it is, not that they would ever say so.
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Of course it is unjustifiable to me and you, but we are not imperialists playing imperialist war games.
The reason the likes of all those people who suggested this might happen because of NATO expansion did so is not because they want to give justification for any future war, its because they understand the realities and dynamics of imperial competition.
 
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