Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[TopCat]

I don't think Lukashenko's Dad's army-style map with a big arrow pointing towards Moldova should be taken very seriously. All that was missing from that briefing was an airforce major ready to relay the great helmsman's instructions to the front, the engine of his Fiesler Storch ticking over on the lawn outside.

It reminded me of Netanyahu with his big ticking time bomb presentation.

 

[friedaweed]

I wasn't being serious.

Shit sorry, I've already reported your post now in case you were being bullied. I'm a proper grass me

 

[RD2003]

Shit sorry, I've already reported your post now in case you were being bullied. I'm a proper grass me

I'm just worried they might take me to have my head flushed down the bog.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

You surely cannot be so simplistic.

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Mearsheimer said he thought Putin was far too smart to invade Ukraine and that he was a great strategist and yet here we are. The NATO thing is way overstated I think and is exactly what Putin wants his supporters to do, blame it all on NATO.

That Mearsheimer talk is interesting and I learned a lot. He said Ukraine is divided with something like 60/40 in favour of wanting to look west, at least it was its probably more like 95/5 now. This country's divided on similar 52/48 lines regarding Brexit but you'd be a bit silly if, say, France invaded and you said 'well if we'd just stayed in the EU none of this would've happened.'

I also got from that talk a big sense of 'we know best' from Mearsheimer when he said 'we should make Ukraine neutral' who's this we? Ukrainian people have agency, it's up to them what they decide for their country, not NATO and not Russia.

 

[belboid]

Mearsheimer said he thought Putin was far too smart to invade Ukraine and that he was a great strategist and yet here we are. The NATO thing is way overstated I think and is exactly what Putin wants his supporters to do, blame it all on NATO.

That Mearsheimer talk is interesting and I learned a lot. He said Ukraine is divided with something like 60/40 in favour of wanting to look west, at least it was its probably more like 95/5 now. This country's divided on similar 52/48 lines regarding Brexit but you'd be a bit silly if, say, France invaded and you said 'well if we'd just stayed in the EU none of this would've happened.'

I also got from that talk a big sense of 'we know best' from Mearsheimer when he said 'we should make Ukraine neutral' who's this we? Ukrainian people have agency, it's up to them what they decide for their country, not NATO and not Russia.

I cba to sit through the whole hour+ of that video, but I've read Mearsheimer before and, like you say, he makes a lot of very good points about the role of the west and how it was bound to cause a reaction from Putin. But he also makes some very bad ones, I do tend to stop listening to commentators who describe the 2014 overthrowing of the Muscovite dictator as a 'coup.'

 

[agricola]

Care to expand? Seems like a total misstep to me, setting aside the moral aspect. Not sure what Russian interests will be served.

The only thing I can think of is that it creates a crisis which will probably end up making worse a lot of issues in Europe and especially the US that would create chaos.

If the price of food / price of living generally goes up a lot, that is going to put a lot of pressure internally in Western states which will inevitably lead on to groups of countries (the EU, NATO) falling out when they get accused of profiteering / hoarding / not sharing.

He meanwhile will be always there, with his huge production of grains and fertilizer visible in the background, available at very reasonable prices if only you can do him a favour... and so on.

 

[RD2003]

Mearsheimer said he thought Putin was far too smart to invade Ukraine and that he was a great strategist and yet here we are. The NATO thing is way overstated I think and is exactly what Putin wants his supporters to do, blame it all on NATO.

That Mearsheimer talk is interesting and I learned a lot. He said Ukraine is divided with something like 60/40 in favour of wanting to look west, at least it was its probably more like 95/5 now. This country's divided on similar 52/48 lines regarding Brexit but you'd be a bit silly if, say, France invaded and you said 'well if we'd just stayed in the EU none of this would've happened.'

I also got from that talk a big sense of 'we know best' from Mearsheimer when he said 'we should make Ukraine neutral' who's this we? Ukrainian people have agency, it's up to them what they decide for their country, not NATO and not Russia.

They don't decide, ultimately. Foreign powers decide, hence the pouring in of hundreds of millions of dollars to aid those expounding the pro-NATO and pro-EU view, and to whip up anti-Russian fervour. And the foreign interference in the 2014 overthrow of the elected government. Senator McCain went to address the crowds in Maidan. As plenty have said, imagine a leading Russian politician doing such thing in Mexico, for instance. They're still crying in Washington about the alleged Russian interference from afar in their own election in 2016. They haven't even got over Khruschev and the Cuban crisis, as, I think, Mearscheimer says.

 

[RD2003]

I cba to sit through the whole hour+ of that video, but I've read Mearsheimer before and, like you say, he makes a lot of very good points about the role of the west and how it was bound to cause a reaction from Putin. But he also makes some very bad ones, I do tend to stop listening to commentators who describe the 2014 overthrowing of the Muscovite dictator as a 'coup.'

He wasn't a dictator, he was elected. (Please nobody take that as meaning I'm a fan.)

 

[Cid]

I am familiar with this Rnaud Bertrand and he is a genocide apologist twat. Basically a propagandist for the Chinese government. Not even sure if he is really a person, but he might be.

Second, all that thread is, is a selection of people saying NATO expansion eastwards is dangerous. Well, yes - however, it is Ukraine who was determined to join NATO, NATO was not really keen on them joining.

Oof fuck, it did not take much digging to get to the Xinjiang apologetics.

Not going to relink to the fucker, but here are a couple of sample quotes from a tweet thread back in dec 2021:

"That brings me to the famous "reeducation camps", or as China more accurately calls them, the "vocational training and education centres"."

"How about that terror problem? Gone, there hasn't been a single terror attack in Xinjiang since 2017. Better still: Xinjiang is now so safe it's actually become China's (and even the world's!) top touristic destination with around 200Mio tourists a year."

 

[Doctor Carrot]

They don't decide, ultimately. Foreign powers decide, hence the pouring in of hundreds of millions of dollars to aid those expounding the pro-NATO and pro-EU view, and to whip up anti-Russian fervour. And the foreign interference in the 2014 overthrow of the elected government. Senator McCain went to address the crowds in Maidan. As plenty have said, imagine a leading Russian politician doing such thing in Mexico, for instance. They're still crying in Washingtonabout the alleged Russian interference from afar in their own election in 2016. They haven't even got over Khruschev and the Cuban crisis, as, I think, Mearscheimer says.

Jesus Christ. I think you need to give your social media algorithm a wobble, pal.

 

[Serge Forward]

He wasn't a dictator, he was elected. (Please nobody take that as meaning I'm a fan.)

Historically, it's not so unusual for dictators to initially be elected. Dictator is as dictator does.

 

[RD2003]

Oof fuck, it did not take much digging to get to the Xinjiang apologetics.

Not going to relink to the fucker, but here are a couple of sample quotes from a tweet thread back in dec 2021:

"That brings me to the famous "reeducation camps", or as China more accurately calls them, the "vocational training and education centres"."

"How about that terror problem? Gone, there hasn't been a single terror attack in Xinjiang since 2017. Better still: Xinjiang is now so safe it's actually become China's (and even the world's!) top touristic destination with around 200Mio tourists a year."

I've never heard of him before. But the link detailed genuine warnings from a wide variety of people, about the implications of NATO expansion and the inevitability of the horror unfolding before our eyes. Whose website it appears on is irrelevant.

 

[RD2003]

Historically, it's not so unusual for dictators to initially be elected. Dictator is as dictator does.

Well he must be one of the only dictators in history who got to do hardly anything of what he wanted.

 

[RD2003]

Jesus Christ. I think you need to give your social media algorithm a wobble, pal.

Don't even know what that means.

 

[Pickman's model]

Don't even know what that means.

step away from the keyboard, is all

 

[Raheem]

Well he must be one of the only dictators in history who got to do hardly anything of what he wanted.

A succinct biography.

 

[Weller]

If that’s the Penis fly trap I put on ignore I’ll continue not seeing it

Editor!

Edited

 

[Serge Forward]

Well he must be one of the only dictators in history who got to do hardly anything of what he wanted.

What on earth are you talking about? You think he doesn't want to invade and bomb people in Ukraine while arresting anyone in Russia who opposes this?

On second thoughts, don't bother to answer. I can't be arsed with your red-brown silliness.

 

[Bingoman]

If any of wereRussian or lived in the country and if you spread misinformation you could land up in Labour camp for 5 years under the new rules according Sky news?

 

[Pickman's model]

If any of wereRussian or lived in the country and if you spread misinformation you could land up in Labour camp for 5 years under the new rules according Sky news?

i don't know, could you?

 

[RD2003]

What on earth are you talking about? You think he doesn't want to invade and bomb people in Ukraine while arresting anyone in Russia who opposes this?

On second thoughts, don't bother to answer. I can't be arsed with your red-brown silliness.

Thought we were talking about the Ukraine president deposed in 2014?

 

[Serge Forward]

Ah... missed that. He may not have been so much a dictator but the puppetry was strong.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Thought we were talking about the Ukraine president deposed in 2014?

The one that Members of Parliament voted to remove?

 

[RD2003]

Ah... missed that. He may not have been so much a dictator but the puppetry was strong.

Yes, but as I said, he was elected-and overthrown, to a large degree, at the behest of foreign powers.

 

[RD2003]

The one that Members of Parliament voted to remove?

Yes-all on their own!

 

[Kaka Tim]

Sadly, I think they are not. He seems to be acting as if he knows they don't matter (in the medium and long term) and given the size of his international support I think he is probably right. I am not even sure the damage to the Russian economy is that severe either, though it might be in his interest to make it look as if it is for a while.

At this point even something daft like the table (that many people think means he is paranoid or isolated) could easily be seen as yet another trap that the media have walked into, rather than recognizing he is leading a fully committed government who are all working together to a plan they all agree on and think will benefit them / their country / their group of states.

Can't remember a time in my life when I have had as little positive feeling about the future as this.

I think he gives all the appearance of being a authoritarian despot who is sliding into megalomania - not exactly a rare condition for people in his position. It might be some elaborate cunning mind game he's playing - but his actions and words all point to it being exactly what it looks like. And the biggest evidence of this is his decision to invade Ukraine in the first place - (and thinking it would be a cake walk).
right now I would say he is easily the worlds most dangerous person and getting him well away from the big red button should be the world number one priority. Seriously - Russia as a loose cannon rogue state is the situation we are in. Really, really not good

 

[Pickman's model]

Seriously - Russia as a loose cannon rouge state is the situation we are in. Really, really not good

i like the notion of them as a rouge state - the make-up which fools western communists that there's something progressive about putain

 

[mojo pixy]

Russia as a loose cannon rouge state is the situation we are in. Really, really not good

Used to be rouge, now rogue

 

[Raheem]

Yes-all on their own!

And for no reason as well!

 

[JimW]

I think he gives all the appearance of being a authoritarian despot who is sliding into megalomania - not exactly a rare condition for people in his position. It might be some elaborate cunning mind game he's playing - but his actions and words all point to it being exactly what it looks like. And the biggest evidence of this is his decision to invade Ukraine in the first place - (and thinking it would be a cake walk).

Just been reading a forceful take on that position in spades on meduza: Putin’s last stand How to lose a war simply by starting one — Meduza