Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

A just published study on the war of hashtags, and how bots and suspect accounts from both 'extreme' ends of the political spectrum are converging in interesting ways.
" Actors from both extreme left and extreme right disseminate the #abolishNATO hashtag for example..."

https://networkcontagion.us/wp-content/uploads/NCRI-Insights-SitRep-March-2022.pdf

 

[kebabking]

So their use by the Americans in the Vietnam war and the two battles of Fallujah, plus their use by the Brits in Afghanistan, flown in by our own hero Price Harry was all fine and dandy and non-binary.

As with most things, it depends what you use them for...

Two days ago a Ukrainian sniper used a .338.bullet to end the life of a Russian Major-General of Paratroopers. Not overly controversial one asumes...

If I used a .338 bullet to end the life of a 5yo child, that would be quite different, no?

Thermobarics, and FAE's have a quite legitimate use - they are (primarily) anti-structure munitions, they were created to allow the destruction of protected structures like trench systems, underground bunkers, hardened aircraft shelters that normal HE weapons have limited effects on.

We used in Afghanistan in that way - we bought a limited number of Hellfire missiles using that warhead - the K version if I recall.

They can also be used - the over-pressure effect - to create helicopter landing sites in jungles/forests by stripping the vegetation (the original FAE bombs were used specifically for this), but they have another use: the over-pressure effect is great for destroying/setting off mines and IED's, and we used, and in current doctrine use, them for this purpose.

If someone is dropping a 500lb thermobaric bomb on a block of flats, the problem is not that it's a thermobaric warhead (though that's not great), it's that they are dropping a 500lb bomb on a block of flats.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm wondering exactly how NATO would react if he attacked one of the "lesser" NATO members.

see pm

 

[existentialist]

It implied to me that using these weapons on Ukrainians is bad and their use by allied forces is "qualitatively different". Maybe you meant, it's even worse when used by allied forces, but given the press and general public outrage over their use, I assumed you fell into that more binary camp.

I think the comparison I made was between using weapons like this in a built-up area, with the consequences for non-combatants, versus using them in an isolated situation. I was not suggesting that either was "good", just that there is a significant difference of degree.

Just to be clear, I was not making any comparison between the ethnicities of the people they are used on, but between the situations they were (or may be) used in.

 

[dilute micro]

Third episode. I recommend this even if it is 20 minutes.

Good video but I have to doubt that Western generals are clueless on how Russians fight a war. Grunt soldiers like to think of generals and officers as being stupid.

 

[Cid]

Some reassurance on nuclear plant (from guardian):

Two experts have offered some reassurance that the military activity at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is unlikely to cause a major nuclear incident.

Dr Mark Wenman, reader in Nuclear Materials at Imperial College London, said:

The Zaporizhzia nuclear plant has six VVER-1000 pressurised water reactor units producing 20% of Ukraine’s electricity.
The plant is a relatively modern reactor design and as such the essential reactor components are housed inside a heavily steel reinforced concrete containment building that can withstand extreme external events, both natural and man-made, such as an aircraft crash or explosions.
The reactor core is itself further housed in a sealed steel pressure vessel with 20cm thick walls. The design is a lot different to the Chernobyl reactor, which did not have a containment building, and hence there is no real risk, in my opinion, at the plant now the reactors have been safely shut down.

Prof Tom Scott, at the University of Bristol, UK said:

Shelling nuclear power plants is against the Geneva convention and this is obviously very worrying. The good news is that radiation levels around the plant are reportedly normal and five of the six reactors are now turned off, with one still operating.
The reactors are all pressurised water reactors and hence don’t have graphite cores which could set on fire as per Chernobyl. Their inherent safety design should mean they are naturally quite resilient to any external perturbations and hence I am not overly concerned that inadvertent damage could cause a major nuclear incident.
However, it would be more concerning if the reactors were being deliberately targeted to induce a nuclear incident.

 

[LDC]

I'm wondering exactly how NATO would react if he attacked one of the "lesser" NATO members.

Invasion easier. What about unclaimed (and denied) cyber attacks, sabotage, political destablization, moving 'little green men' in? Gets much trickier.

 

[belboid]

Invasion easier. What about unclaimed (and denied) cyber attacks, sabotage, political destablization, moving 'little green men' in? Gets much trickier.

both sides have been doing that for years already

 

[LDC]

both sides have been doing that for years already

Yeah for sure a bit, but I was meaning in a clearer concerted way against one country in lieu or precipitating an invasion rather than the ongoing stuff now.

 

[Rimbaud]

A just published study on the war of hashtags, and how bots and suspect accounts from both 'extreme' ends of the political spectrum are converging in interesting ways.
" Actors from both extreme left and extreme right disseminate the #abolishNATO hashtag for example..."

https://networkcontagion.us/wp-content/uploads/NCRI-Insights-SitRep-March-2022.pdf

I think it is to be expected, the Russian misinformation strategy is to boost opposing extremes to heighten social conflict and division. So they support Black Lives Matter as well as White Supremacists, and try to push both sides to take more extreme measures.

I think this also explains why some on the far left and some on the far right are converging when it comes to foreign policy. They are basically both lapping up Russian propaganda. The Beesleyite "left" is basically defined by a reliance on Russian propaganda after all.

 

[Nylock]

I'm wondering exactly how NATO would react if he attacked one of the "lesser" NATO members.

Overwhelming conventional response in that area. Anything less would make a mockery of article 5 and would lead to the eventual break up of the alliance .

 

[A380]

I think it is to be expected, the Russian misinformation strategy is to boost opposing extremes to heighten social conflict and division. So they support Black Lives Matter as well as White Supremacists, and try to push both sides to take more extreme measures.

I think this also explains why some on the far left and some on the far right are converging when it comes to foreign policy. They are basically both lapping up Russian propaganda. The Beesleyite "left" is basically defined by a reliance on Russian propaganda after all.

Except on BREXIT which was won because the British working classes near unanimously accepted the cogent and intelligent arguments of the lexitiers . Obvs...

 

[A380]

Good video but I have to doubt that Western generals are clueless on how Russians fight a war. Grunt soldiers like to think of generals and officers as being stupid.

I'm not sure he says that?

 

[A380]

see pm

So you are Jens Stoltenberg. I had wondered...

 

[Pickman's model]

people who are interested in how the american military see their competitors might like to look at the foreign military studies office's operational environment watch, at Foreign Military Studies Office. they also have a range of books you can download (https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/p/fmso-bookshelf) - these may end up telling you more about how the americans think than how the russians (or chinese) operate

 

[NoXion]

Anyway, what we know so far: Putin can't possibly win; he underestimated both the resistance and the terrain etc and will get bogged down by an insurgency for years and years. His days are clearly numbered.

At the same time, he can't possibly be stopped and will not be satisfied with just Ukraine but will march on to the Baltic states and even Poland and Hungary. Possibly Belgium too. He is an invincible Bond baddie.

It's not the same people saying those different things.

 

[A380]

people who are interested in how the american military see their competitors might like to look at the foreign military studies office's operational environment watch, at Foreign Military Studies Office.

There looks to be some interesting content there, when I get a chance laterI'll look through it.

But presumably it was "bring your child to work day" when they put the landing page together.

 

[bimble]

The Times says that the 3 recent attempts on Zelensky's life have all failed because of leaks from "anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB)."

 

[TopCat]

It does and no I didn't. Anyway, not carrying this on.

Why start it then? But good to know anyway.

 

[andysays]

I'm wondering exactly how NATO would react if he attacked one of the "lesser" NATO members.

That's an interesting question, but I really hope we don't get the opportunity of finding out

 

[emanymton]

It's not the same people saying those different things.

Also no one is saying either of those 2 things.

 

[Pickman's model]

The Times says that the 3 recent attempts on Zelensky's life have all failed because of leaks from "anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB)."

yeh. i suppose that now the times has let the entire english-speaking world know about that, future plotters may be more tight-lipped about their plans rather than running them in eg the mail (where the chechen fighters' plans were highlighted couple of days before they were all killed).

 

[Pickman's model]

That's an interesting question, but I really hope we don't get the opportunity of finding out

i expect gladio has been revived over the past few years

 

[A380]

yeh. i suppose that now the times has let the entire english-speaking world know about that, future plotters may be more tight-lipped about their plans rather than running them in eg the mail (where the chechen fighters' plans were highlighted couple of days before they were all killed).

"You will never believe which Top Secret Russian assassination plan we shared with Kim Khardashian yesterday!!"

 

[NoXion]

Also no one is saying either of those 2 things.

Eh, trawl around on social media for long enough and you'll find support for pretty much any position.

 

[andysays]

Eh, trawl around on social media for long enough and you'll find support for pretty much any position.

I'm guessing emanymton means no-one here

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Anyway, what we know so far: Putin can't possibly win; he underestimated both the resistance and the terrain etc and will get bogged down by an insurgency for years and years. His days are clearly numbered.

At the same time, he can't possibly be stopped and will not be satisfied with just Ukraine but will march on to the Baltic states and even Poland and Hungary. Possibly Belgium too. He is an invincible Bond baddie.

Both these could be true, minus the deliberate exaggeration.

After WW2 anti-Russian fighting continued for another 10 years in Ukraine and the Baltic States. It took the same sort of timeframe to pacify Chechnya. The population of the Ukraine, what's left of it, will remain overwhelmingly hostile Putin and the Russian state for decades to come.

There is no knowing what Putin might try next. Maybe nothing. Maybe invade Moldova, or one of the Asian ex-Soviet republics. Maybe one of the Baltic states. Maybe other forms of aggression, e.g. Cyber warfare.

 

[RD2003]

Profiteering from NATO expansion and the manufacturing of enemies.

Hedges: Chronicle of a War Foretold

I was in Eastern Europe in 1989 reporting on the revolutions that overthrew the ossified communist dictatorships that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was a time of hope. NATO, with the breakup of the Soviet empire, became obsolete.

scheerpost.com

 

[NoXion]

I'm guessing emanymton means no-one here

TBF, it's not clear who exactly RD2003 is referring to by "we". I assumed it was referring to general commentary on this conflict.

 

[two sheds]

What's happening with the russian facebook (etc) trolls/bots? I read somewhere that a lot had been closed down, is that true?