Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

I think the whlole thing is an utter disaster 30 years in the making. Don't you?

now you've made your point you can leave the thread

 

[two sheds]

Loads of posters on this thread have been deliberately contentious and inflammatory. Enough of this bullying shit towards people who don't agree with you. i won't let it go even if it fucks the thread up.

If they use that tone in addressing people then people will use a similar tone in replying and it (the tone) starts spiraling down. It's not just not agreeing. A lot of people are disagreeing with each other but holding a useful conversation about it.

 

[TopCat]

Ukrainian government still lobbying for a nuclear stand-off (or worse).

Ukraine’s culture ministry has called for closing the skies over Ukraine because Russian forces are “destroying Ukrainian cultural sites”.

Oleksandr Tkachenko, Ukraine’s minister of culture and information policy, said most of Putin’s “war crimes” in his country had been “committed from the air”, according to a statement by the ministry.


The statement warned:

The Ukrainians know they can't "win" on their own and unsurprisingly will try and drag the countries who provoked this mess right into it.

 

[Kaka Tim]

He does make some good points. A friend of mine who did an MA in Central Asian Security Studies and knows a bit about Russian military said something similar, they are attacking in waves and don't really care about soldiers dying.

However, I don't think Russian financial meltdown and the young and educated fleeing the country en masse is part of the plan, unless Putin truly is bent on senseless destruction for its own sake - which I don't think is the case.

I think maybe the war is within the scope of Russia's worst case scenario. Russian economic collapse probably wasn't part of the plan though.

What he doesn't address in that video is how long can Russia keep up this level of warfare?
Their supply problem will only get worse as they push forward - and their supply lines become more vulnerable. And the fall of Kiev does not mean the fall of urkaine - the government will presumably transfer operations to Lviv - very close to the polish border - and as the russians push west the resistance could become greater as the Ukrainians are defending a narrower front and are closer to their supply routes.
Thats why i think economic pain, logistics and poor morale may do for the Russian invasion.

 

[ska invita]

Thanks for posting that, good thread. [Kasparov twitter thread] although somewhat worrying, I think he has it bang on the nail.

bang on the nail? hes saying Nato should pile in to the war in Ukrainefull force isnt he?
"somewhat worrying"?
yes it is somewhat

 

[TopCat]

Right now in Poland, Ruble is worth zero. The anger over here is simply unbelievable. We are all a combination of enraged/sad/worried.

Warsaw:
View attachment 312768

Can we buy roubles in London? Does anyone know if so and where?

 

[RD2003]

Things is, he's really shit at it. It's just the bogstandard Putinesque bullshit.

Yes, it's really 'Putinesque' to post links to articles completely demolishing the Putin worldview and the man himself, written by a well-known dissident of the Soviet era (see linked article by Vladimir Sorokin further up the thread.)

 

[CosmikRoger]

Can’t remember the exact wording of this joke but there was on about Macron visiting Ireland on an official visit. He was scheduled to go to a sporting event and he kept asking the taoiseach ‘will i have my own private box at the event?‘ Eventually they arrived at the event and he was led to his private booth. ‘Is this my private box?’. ’It’s over there’ replied the Irishman pointing at a wooden crate. ‘You can stand on it so you can see better you stumpy cunt’.

That was Sarkozy, the midget cnut

 

[TopCat]

That was Sarkozy, the midget cnut

I mean this is hardly erudite but has a place.

 

[kebabking]

Can we buy roubles in London? Does anyone know if so and where?

Asda?

 

[bimble]

You can’t buy rubles at the post office right now, everything else is there in the dropdown menu but not that.

 

[Rimbaud]

What he doesn't address in that video is how long can Russia keep up this level of warfare?
Their supply problem will only get worse as they push forward - and their supply lines become more vulnerable. And the fall of Kiev does not mean the fall of urkaine - the government will presumably transfer operations to Lviv - very close to the polish border - and as the russians push west the resistance could become greater as the Ukrainians are defending a narrower front and are closer to their supply routes.
Thats why i think economic pain, logistics and poor morale may do for the Russian invasion.

It looks like Russia may have some plan to split up Ukraine. So they may not bother with Lviv and the west of the country, they'll probably leave it as some rump Ukraine after conquering Kiev, west of the Dnieper and the Black Sea area.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

 

[editor]

. i won't let it go even if it fucks the thread up.

Yes you will. Anyone continuing to fuck this thread up with personal shit can expect warnings and a ban if they continue.

 

[andysays]

War in Ukraine: Russia restricts access to BBC in media crackdown​

A BBC spokesperson said: "Access to accurate, independent information is a fundamental human right which should not be denied to the people of Russia, millions of whom rely on BBC News every week. We will continue our efforts to make BBC News available in Russia, and across the rest of the world."

Record numbers of people have read the BBC's Russian language news website since the invasion, seeking up-to-date information on the conflict.

I know there's been speculation here about this happening, and now it has happened

 

[agricola]

It looks like Russia may have some plan to split up Ukraine. So they may not bother with Lviv and the west of the country, they'll probably leave it as some rump Ukraine after conquering Kiev, west of the Dnieper and the Black Sea area.

Not sure how that helps, the rump will still border NATO, will be vehemently anti-Russian and will probably be armed to the absolute teeth. If he’s going to take it over I think he’s got to take it all over, and accept the costs.

 

[bimble]

Yes you will. Anyone continuing to fuck this thread up with personal shit can expect warnings and a ban if they continue.

good. it's completely boring at the best of times, and this isn't those times.

 

[bimble]

Not sure how that helps, the rump will still border NATO, will be vehemently anti-Russian and will probably be armed to the absolute teeth. If he’s going to take it over I think he’s got to take it all over, and accept the costs.

How would taking it all be less difficult though? Border issue and insurgency still remains.

 

[ska invita]

It looks like Russia may have some plan to split up Ukraine. So they may not bother with Lviv and the west of the country, they'll probably leave it as some rump Ukraine after conquering Kiev, west of the Dnieper and the Black Sea area.

a partition also helps Putin in having to fight a protracted guerilla war. If you dont like being under Russian rule, move west.

 

[TopCat]

Yes you will. Anyone continuing to fuck this thread up with personal shit can expect warnings and a ban if they continue.

Lets see you apply this fairly then.

No personal abuse everyone. Move on.

 

[agricola]

How would taking it all be less difficult though? Border issue and insurgency still remains.

I don’t think it would be less difficult, I just think it’s more realistic an aim for them given the lengths to which he has already gone.

I mean it makes very little sense (given their blandishments, and yes I know they change them regularly) to invade saying there’s a threat, then walk away with half the country leaving what would present rather quickly much bigger threat behind.

He could do it, but I doubt it.

 

[Flavour]

Putin has already made it clear he doesn't think Ukraine has any right to exist and wants to take all of it

 

[Pickman's model]

Can we buy roubles in London? Does anyone know if so and where?

canny thought, when it regains value you'll be quids in

 

[Raheem]

canny thought, when it regains value you'll be quids in

Or your grandkids.

 

[cupid_stunt]

bang on the nail? hes saying Nato should pile in to the war in Ukrainefull force isnt he?
"somewhat worrying"?
yes it is somewhat

It was the bit after that, because clearly NATO isn't going to get directly involved in Ukraine, it's the what's next, because if Putin thought/still thinks this is going to be easy, don't be surprised if he decides to invade another country, even one of the smaller NATO members on his border.

 

[ska invita]

Putin has already made it clear he doesn't think Ukraine has any right to exist and wants to take all of it

Splitting it stops "Ukraine" from existing too - two new states arise.
But I fear you are right, reading the tea leaves of sounds from those who have the best intelligence briefings, combined with the utterances of Putin himself + that map with a red arrow going into Maldova suggests more grand plans - but plans can change.

 

[cupid_stunt]

War in Ukraine: Russia restricts access to BBC in media crackdown​

I know there's been speculation here about this happening, and now it has happened

It was clear it would happen, despite the fact that OFCOM hasn't banned RT, and why the BBC World Service has fired up a couple old school short-wave frequencies, that covers Ukraine and much of Russia.

 

[ska invita]

It was clear it would happen, despite the fact that OFCOM hasn't banned RT, and why the BBC World Service has fired up a couple old school short-wave frequencies, that covers Ukraine and much of Russia.

deserves a like for mentioning OFCOM again

 

[TopCat]

canny thought, when it regains value you'll be quids in

Well if they are close to zero you can hardly lose say over five years. It's not like the Russians are going to lose.

 

[Pickman's model]

Splitting it stops "Ukraine" from existing too - two new states arise.
But I fear you are right, reading the tea leaves of sounds from those who have the best intelligence briefings, combined with the utterances of Putin himself + that map with a red arrow going into Maldova suggests more grand plans - but plans can change.

Let's wait till he's finished the main before wondering what he'll have for dessert